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Tigerpaw

Tigerpaw
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  • The Stock Market Has Reached "A Permanently High Plateau" -- If The Fed Does Not Mess Up Again [View article]
    Another 'sell' signal.

    Why do all 'Fed models' pretend that bonds and stocks are the only places to put money, lending to the flawed argument that if bonds don't offer competitive returns, then, by default, stocks do?

    I have yet to see such a premise compare alternative positions in other investments, as in the 350+% returns in precious metals (not paper) since the first equity bubble burst in 2000. And, this is before other 'models' which show that this is one of the 3 most expensive equity markets in 3 generations, based upon accepted valuation techniques. A fair number of these techniques project single digit returns for the next decade.

    After inflation adjustments, buy and hold arguments for equities ended 14 years ago, with returns of single digits down to negative double digits for the the Dow 30, the S&P500 and the NASDAQ composite, respectively.

    It's not just about bond rates, any bond rates, or, just about cherry-picked 'fundamentals'. It's about growth. US Growth is sub-par on a 100-year benchmark, with no end in sight. European growth is unbalanced and also clinging to every breath of the central bank.

    Prodigious central bank participation does not dictate true market value. This is heresy.

    This is the inverse of 'The Death of Equities' article, now seen as the perfect time to go long equities.
    Jul 23 08:54 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Lockhart bullish about U.S. economy, but visibility limited [View news story]
    Oh, that's right. You're one of those folks who think it's not about what's true or false, just as long as you feel what YOU believe is true, or not.
    May 12 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Lockhart bullish about U.S. economy, but visibility limited [View news story]
    I'm glad 'simple' works for you.
    May 12 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Lockhart bullish about U.S. economy, but visibility limited [View news story]
    "...Clinton repealed Stegal-Glass in 1999..." And, after Clinton left, the other guys did what about this???

    "....W Bush inherited the DOT COM bust .." Kind of ignores the benefits of the 15 years leading up to it, doesn't it...or, the productive advantages from all of the tech companies that have thrived as a result.

    "...9-11 shut down quite a bit of the economy as well..." Kind of makes it easy to ignore the trillions in expansion added BECAUSE of 9/11.


    "...Obama has over regulated this economy into a .1 percent first quarter GDP..."
    Rates of change in GDP have been below the long term trends since the mid-70's, if you hadn't heard, with just a brief blip back closer to the trend for a brief period during the 90's. No mention of the current Congress in your imagination.....I wonder why? Oh, I think I know...your guys in charge, or, at least as figureheads. Still...record levels of confusion and uselessness.

    ".. pumping out 45 to 100 billion a month into their economies for 4 plus consecutive years..." Wall Street is not 'the economy'. Main Street isn't benefiting. Gucci, Benz, BMW, Tiffany are doing great. Target, Kohl's, GM, Chrysler, not so great. The broad labor force isn't seeing enough of this to matter. Hadn't you heard?

    Go back a bone up on the details, not just the sound bites.
    May 12 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Lockhart bullish about U.S. economy, but visibility limited [View news story]
    @SolidHigh - your comment reflects less on your lack of understanding of how this economy actually operates, or, we could easily gather that the WH's previous resident had an even weaker grasp on the private sector impact on growth, given that trend (2 contractions) from 2003-2009. Also, it reflects more of your additional failure to understand how gullible you might be to the regular streams of Fed market 'jawboning'. Such 'jawboning' habitually overshoots optimistically, falls short, all the while taking those such as you with given political biases into whatever preconceived notions you might have, regardless of how you, or the Fed governors, also fail to notice that reality is elsewhere.
    http://nws.mx/RD19hc

    Perhaps, using evidence rather than conjecture, you are telling us that a Clinton is more likely to help achieve 3% growth than a Bush? History, with evidence, might tend to support that stronger suggestion, than anything that either Lockhart or you might bring to the table at this time, otherwise.

    So, remind us again how economic growth has so much more to do with the WH occupants than with other more substantial factors that you might have overlooked. Just leave out the part about these unsubstantiated and forgettable Fed comments, if you find that palatable.
    May 11 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Calling long-dated U.S. Treasurys (TLT, TBT) the most hated asset class in the world (ed: They've been so for years), Jeff Gundlach - appearing on CNBC - calls them the one place where you can make money over the coming weeks. "There are no signs of inflation anywhere." [View news story]
    They are currently severely oversold in plain view of overly bullish, hyper-extended, Fed-induced, over-valued and weakening technicals in equity indexes.
    Jun 19 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Vs. Coca-Cola [View article]
    Of course, there are time periods where KO has outperformed gold; there always will be. And there are valid ways to compare specific stocks to specific commodities. Unfortunately, this time frame simply does not work, the future time frame is just a wild guess, and, as others are pointing out, for every KO, there are many other stocks for the past ten years, and, of course, the next ten years, that have eaten/will eat KO's lunch. CSCO/KO 1990 to 2000, AAPL/KO 2000/2012, etc.
    May 1 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Vs. Coca-Cola [View article]
    Let's see.....
    KO - project the past 10 years performance over the next ten years, from the standpoint of it's worthiest measure..dividends.
    AU - purchase now only after missing a 500% return since 1999, ignoring an actual 630% trough to peak gain between 1999 and 2012. Neither of these significant factors did you care to even casually mention.

    Then, project KO as if the current trend will continue, while totally ignoring the potential for a ten-year trend for AU that compares to the past 10-13 years.

    This is the worst kind of comparison.

    This took effort; not the best kind of effort.

    You're not serious.
    Apr 29 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Vs. Coca-Cola [View article]
    It's so convenient to purchase gold now, AFTER the 500+% return since 1999., actually closer to 630% from trough to the last peak....and, at the same time, projecting KO forward to reflect it's performance of the past ten years while IGNORING the past 10 years for gold.......SERIOUSLY????

    No, you're not.

    I'm done.
    Apr 29 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Bulls, But This Is Still A Secular Bear Market [View article]
    Were one to consider the impact of flash trading and 3 rounds of QE, those different conclusions could be rapidly removed.
    Feb 25 09:17 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dow is just a few ticks away from the 14,000 marker, but it may not make it there, says CNBC's John Melloy. Why? Take a look at small-cap stocks, he says. Stocks with smaller market values – as represented by the Russell 2000 (IWM) – got pounded. As smaller companies are considered to be riskier than their large-cap counterparts, they're considered to be a leading indicator of the "animal spirits" that lead a rally, Melloy says. [View news story]
    I'm a great fan of Bob Bronson. So much so, that with his permission,
    he is quoted in my new book.

    However, here's a very recent one that went a little different from plan, suggesting, 3 years ago, an imminent peak and a decline into '12 & '13. We're still waiting.

    http://bit.ly/XV1GXu

    So, in spite of his extensive analysis and conclusions......this week, his conclusions, which I do not have permission to repeat here, are shall I say, much less than bullish over all time ranges beyond the very short term.

    Your chart reference is from 2009, projecting a bullish environment within 5 years at that point.

    It's obvious, in retrospect, that not only are the chart projections conclusions flawed, but, even a year later, my 2010 reference, there was still a need to compensate for multiple rounds of QE.
    Jan 31 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dow is just a few ticks away from the 14,000 marker, but it may not make it there, says CNBC's John Melloy. Why? Take a look at small-cap stocks, he says. Stocks with smaller market values – as represented by the Russell 2000 (IWM) – got pounded. As smaller companies are considered to be riskier than their large-cap counterparts, they're considered to be a leading indicator of the "animal spirits" that lead a rally, Melloy says. [View news story]
    How do you support that opinion?

    Or, better yet, just respond as soon as gold and oil continue their decline, as they were in 1994.
    Jan 31 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dow is just a few ticks away from the 14,000 marker, but it may not make it there, says CNBC's John Melloy. Why? Take a look at small-cap stocks, he says. Stocks with smaller market values – as represented by the Russell 2000 (IWM) – got pounded. As smaller companies are considered to be riskier than their large-cap counterparts, they're considered to be a leading indicator of the "animal spirits" that lead a rally, Melloy says. [View news story]
    All the bears are dead at all-time highs, right?

    All time highs - sell signal?

    Well, believe it or not, most significant pullbacks begin from the point of all-time highs. The past three times that the Dow Tranports reached all-time highs, in 1999, 2007, and 2008, the S&P 500 began significant and lengthy retreats from their corresponding levels.

    The Dow Industrials closed at an all-time high on October 9, 2007, a perfect time to sell, given the 20% loss by July 2, 2008.

    The last 'perfect time to buy' in March of 2009 were, on the S&P600 and the Dow Industrials, near or at 12-year lows, and almost 54% below the 2007 all-time high.

    Remember 'buy low, sell high'?
    Jan 30 11:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Persistent Deflation in Consumer Prices Screams Deleveraging [View article]
    Don't expect to see many people pay what you see on the sticker.
    ".... I didn't see any $20,000 Tauruses Or $30,000 ones. In fact, the price on the Taurus shocked me - $40,000!!??..."

    There is extreme optimism and desperation baked into those initial asking prices.

    Upon initial introduction several years ago, I recall seeing new Chrysler Pacificas on introduction, priced in the mid-upper 30's. After slow sales, Chrysler removed the back seat, lowered the trim levels, options, etc. and in short of two years, new Pacificas could be purchased for almost 10,000 less than the first year models.

    Detroit Newspapers October 27, 2004
    "Up until now,.... with top-of-the-line, loaded models coming in at $40,000 or more...The 2005 Pacifica FWD (for front-wheel drive) eliminates the original model's unique 2+2 second- and third-row seat...starting price is also a palatable $24,995, which is sure to be a hit with families..."
    (link to Cars.com site too long)

    Keep watching those Taurus stickers, and their options, features, trim levels, etc. and report back in 30 months.
    Feb 21 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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