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jrp1324

jrp1324
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  • U.S. clears way for some oil exports by Pioneer Natural, Enterprise Products [View news story]
    The shale revolution is an American phenomenon for now. The easiest shale oil is very light oils and light oils as they are able to flow through the rock pores economically. These will not fit available refining capacity. Let the market work! Send the mismatched oil to refiners who are specialized for it. A severe mismatch leads to impaired refining capacity and the U.S. could be forced to import oil products or limit production of light crudes. If the U.S.
    still wants to limit production of our oil then put it on limits like the Texas Railroad commission used to do. Grabbing hold of the export law as a battle cry is a populist tool for politicians and undeserving of a rational discussion among investors.
    Jun 25 12:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    I think the article is simply brilliant. To put in such concise writing such a complicated subject indicates a near full grasp of where China is on the ladder of economic progress. Thank you Michael.
    Jun 20 02:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Acreage swap may, or may not, be ideal for Linn Energy [View news story]
    The most valuable Midland basin acreage went fast. I think it was a good trade for Lynn. People would have been screaming if the deal went the other way. Lynn giving up gas acreage declining at 6% with a positive carry of $30 - $40 million to buy development acreage with large capital needs leveraging up on oil.
    The gas belongs in an MLP while the Midland acreage will not for a while.
    jim
    May 22 06:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Any Hope For Denbury's Stock To Go Higher And Reach Pioneer's Or Concho's Valuation? [View article]
    Another great and interesting article.
    May 21 12:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pioneer Natural Resources beats by $0.20, beats on revenue [View news story]
    My largest position, nice numbers on the Spayberry shales and Jo Mill wells.
    May 6 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC misses by $0.07, revenue in-line [View news story]
    VNR has been layering on hedges during the last few years. The forward strip has moved and the near strip has moved even more. Mark to market derivative losses do not affect cash flows or expected cash flows. VNR is growing gas production with the recent addition of the Jonah field. Higher hedges will slowly show up as they add production and replace hedges rolling off.
    I think VNR is the most conservatively run of the MLP E&P's and the derivative losses are a reflection of that.
    Apr 29 11:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Are You Ready For The Bears To Return? [View article]
    KenAMac,
    Better timing than mine has been. I have done much better recognizing bottoms than tops and have been 100% invested the last major bottoms 2003, 2009. I have found that I get out too early and my solution is to never go 100% cash. I have went as high as 75% when the market seemed to offer low long term returns as it does today and having a little skin in the game gives me patience when the short sharp rallies temp me to add more to the game.
    Great timing on the article. Others have written similar articles the last couple of years but this time I think we are very close to at least a normal correction if not more.
    jim
    Apr 5 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Should Rally, But Can Then Drop As Low As $14 [View article]
    If silver gets close to $11 then I will buy bullion. I bought $10,000 in coins last a last year when silver when toward $18. Simply bought as a method of diversification. I would double up in the $11-$13 area without hesitation. I will not dispute the author that silver may hit that level. I could see it. I think there will be a lot of support and at the very least a hard bounce at that area but for me I am buying and holding as a form of currency in an emergency. A lot of people do the same with gold. Buy and forget.
    jim
    Mar 30 08:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: The Best E&P MLP Just Keeps Getting Better [View article]
    I am buying the preferred shares in my parents account. They also own the common. Preferred shares should not decline very much in a bear market and the growth component must be balanced with safety of principle at 84 years of age. If they have needs that require selling the preferred should decline less than common units.
    I am adding some preferred shares to my IRA and think the preferred shares are more appropriate than being overweight in the common units as I do not want to watch UBTI too closely.
    I know that it takes a lot of units in MLP's to be bothered with UBTI but with modest growth my IRA's will break 7 figures during my retirement.
    Better to mix it up and VNR is a relatively safe bet with current management.
    jim
    Mar 16 10:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: The Best E&P MLP Just Keeps Getting Better [View article]
    I am meaning to add the VNRBP series. Just need to raise a little more cash. Do you know if the preferred shares are issued K1's like the regular unit holders?
    VNR has done a great job of managing declining gas prices and higher hedges rolling off the last few years.
    Recent price weakness is account the growth capital was temporarily lowered compared to the acquisition conference call. That and the company is going to use the growth capital to pay down debt. A 4 star move IMO for long term holders. VNR will gain flexibility on future growth by going against the MLP grain and paying down debt.
    Growth capital also lowered in case the acreage in the Midland basin is prospective for Wolfcamp B wells. If so the partnership with Diamondback energy will require that the growth component is increased to the previous plan.
    I will add to my position on any drop. Expected return distribution plus increases vs who knows what in the rest of the market.
    jim
    Mar 16 07:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamondback Energy - Investors Are Skeptical About Valuation Which Is Based On Growth [View article]
    The Permian via Midland basin is a gold mine for those that can find the acreage. FANG has done a great job balancing growth and debt.
    Mar 4 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Can't Retire At 30, Then How About 38? [View article]
    We are lucky that this society creates enough wealth that a few farmers can feed the rest of us. Same can be said for those that provide other services or products. Unfortunately the easiest way to measure a persons contribution is economic contribution.
    Those that choose the moniker of retired are just relabeling how they chose to spend their time IMO. My wife did not have a job while we were raising our children...no economic value but in a lot of ways tremendous societal value. Her early retirement in a lot of ways. I will change my lifestyle at age 52 with 2 children still in high school. I use the term retirement or semi retired to describe this change.
    I think enough is as much as a feast.
    As far as our societies misguided race to gain more material wealth for whatever reason, that need has a much greater long term cost.
    It encourages consumption of resources at an higher unsustainable rate than a society that valued more non-economic contributions might. I am sure that my delayed consumption has benefited society as will my choosing a less materialistic lifestyle than I could afford if I were not leaving my employment early.
    Good comments and views,
    jim
    Feb 20 06:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pioneer Natural Resources: A Deep Dive Suggests Possible M&A Upside [View article]
    Bearish argument for PXD is short term only. The stock has a high correlation to oil prices and the S&P. Recent bullish is the lower Sprayberry shale interal. Off my radar screen although I expected the Jo Mill interval to compete with the Wolfcamp returns. This last conference call indicates the Lower Sprayberry may turn out to be the largest and most profitable of the zones. The Jo Mill would be expected to have some of the frac job penetrate the Lower and Middle Sprayberry so potential is also very high. BTW, PXD did not sell any of the Sprayberry zones in the southern Midland JV....did management get lucky or did they have an idea of the potential? We may never know but management has been very very honest in what they are sure of.
    Love the article even with the confirmation bias. Another player that will benefit is the master limited partnership APL and it's general partner ATLS. Gas and NGL's processed with a POP contract of 16% or better. Very lucrative and goes to 2020 before renewal.
    PXD owns 18% of that gathering system and plants.
    Jim
    Feb 15 05:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pioneer Natural Resources: A Deep Dive Suggests Possible M&A Upside [View article]
    My largest holding by far and looking forward to the next several decades. FWIW, I would be disappointed in a buy out. Another JV or selling some acreage is fine but unneeded at this time. Pure play Permian player is what Pioneer is becoming and that of itself will bring a premium share price. PXD management are straight shooters and have laid out their plans, executed early, have a recent 3 years of conference calls worth, of under promising and over achieving. I hope to own this asset through PXD for decades.
    Jim
    Feb 15 04:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intercept Pharmaceuticals: How You Could Benefit From Upcoming Catalysts [View article]
    Thank you for the articles. I have a small position in ICPT that will allow me to participate but now worry over a permanent decline in PPS. Your articles make me think I should add to my position.
    BTW, this is my first biotech purchase. Looking at the share count, market cap, potential market, insider holdings and I do not think $300 is unreasonable. Small float should make this a very quick moving stock in both directions.

    jim
    Feb 8 04:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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