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  • Will Facebook Ever Fundamentally Support Its $170 Billion Market Capitalization? [View article]
    The short version to Bahamas brilliant commentary is this: We have to be a moron to buy FB (or TWTR, LNKD) if you go buy earnings,revenue or other numbers that all of us have. The only reason to buy FB is the assumption that billions of dollars a week are not coming into this stock because it is dumb money.(It just might be so!) But that a very small group of savvy people know exactly where Zuckerberg intend to be with this puppy in 2 or 3 years(no fund manager or big investor has an attention span beyond that) and it is in no way reflected in the balance sheet. One simple move, such as linking all police departments in the country or the world on a special site that may or may not be accessed by the public would on PR alone make every politician from here to Russia want to buy into this. Yes we may indeed see this at $500 down the road and all of us moan..."How could we not have seen this coming." Or perhaps a contract for another govt agency that is totally covert. Something big better be coming soon or we will all look like fools as 2.0 will surely bite us in the rear pretty soon. In other words...this thing isn't staying at 70.It is either going to plummet or skyrocket. JMHO. What else could happen? No sideways channel for this baby for long. It cant be sustained without huge news.
    Feb 21, 2014. 11:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Facebook Ever Fundamentally Support Its $170 Billion Market Capitalization? [View article]
    Bahamas you are dead right. But that does not alter the extreme possibility that many of the fund managers purchasing Google and FB today may be "dead" by the time all that you talk of takes place. See, what we dont have any idea about,is how fast the synergy between all the acquisitions coming our way like a storm and new technology that has to be integrated into or by FB and GOOG. Isnt it funny how the stat that the average fund manager keeps a stock on average of under a year, but in this case they are buying FB as if they are going 5 years out. All we need is for a few of the top holders to run out of patience and ...wham! The stock gets cut in half really quick. That may be the buying opportunity. What I mean is, if this stock goes to 100 and then lets say gets shaved back to 70 where it is now and then starts to rebound, wouldnt that be a safer play to buy this puppy in 12-24 months if that happens, and buy the dip rather than buying now at all time highs and then next qtr comes the bad report and we get crushed back to $50. Just remeber...SOMEBODY IS WAITING TO TAKE PROFITS! However the downside is this thing defies all the other rallies in history including the crash of 2000, and just keeps on trucking along like this whole market has been doing for the past 3-4 yrs. That's another thing, are we going to get 2 more years without a huge correction of like 20% which means the tech stocks get shaved 30% or more? These are uncharted waters for all speculators and investors. I personally would buy this and place my stop under the last lower high and gap up...60.00 even! You take a $10 per share risk to own what could be a $150 stock or better if this buying frenzy continues. I may just do exactly that on monday. I admit if my fib numbers in my head are about right, this thing may get close to 80 and stall for like 3 months before resuming. There has to be time for the sellers to switch hands and exit quietly at the highest price possible. THAT..never changes. Everyone doesn't ride the train to a correction. Some actually use targets. This thing moves to 78 and I move my stop to break even and put it away for a long, long time hopefully.With many betting Blitz here is right! "
    Feb 21, 2014. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Facebook Ever Fundamentally Support Its $170 Billion Market Capitalization? [View article]
    Rifer, I would agree with you 10 yrs ago when media co's and entertainment co's and Internet providers each generally stayed on their own turf. But now...for each of these 3 sectors, the valuation game could change to what we "thought" Internet valuations in the 2000 Internet bust should be based on.......eyeballs. THAT TURNED OUT TO BE WRONG! Are we heading down that road again? Or, did the valuation process Buffett and company use for 50 yrs successfully now change....again? Now... here is the unknown....The comments on this board to me reflect a certain kind of mentality not the norm on Facebook. So I now many of YOU regularly use Facebook? Hmmmmmmmmmmm.......
    Who here has seen the trend as to whom are the biggest users and posters on FB? To be politically correct, I will say it is very scary, especially when you get far away from US and Europe. That might mean their buying power has topped already.

    Facebook especially with that recent gap up may be a momentum play for another 6 months, but who knows. To me, if you want innovation go to "WORK" for Facebook. But if you want share appreciation, there are better bets out there. After all, whatever the reasons WE dont "hang out" on Facebook" for long periods of time, be it lack of mature content, spam, quality of user or what not, we can bet money in hundreds of Garages all over the globe...teams of people are trying to figure out how to make a small version of Facebook, just slightly better and sidestep these issues. FB on the other rhand is stuck with them.And it will be done eventually. Just ask yourself why YOU dont make Facebook one of your favorite sates and we can assume someone is already trying to fix those issues...and they dont work for FB!
    Feb 17, 2014. 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Straight Shootin': The Truth About Ruger [View article]
    Few? Like how few? Do you have stats on that? I'm kinda curious,myself. -) The conventional wisdom is bubacks mean the co has no buying opportunities nor do they need to increase the amt of materials they buy as orders must not be increasing. Yuh know what I have to say about "conventional wisdom?".....ignore usual. -)
    Dec 10, 2013. 01:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Straight Shootin': The Truth About Ruger [View article]
    I am not an accountant. But could I be making a fair assumption that if this company can make a blunder(?) in dividend vs share buy back which is an accounting/economic issue, yet their firearms are the best dollar for dollar in the business, especially handguns and especially revolvers,it seems that the genius of the co's manufacturing does not cross over to its investing and accounting dept. So how much will that hurt shareholders in the long term, and the way this stock is moving,regardless of a 'supposed" downturn in retail buying tells us many somebody's are pretty darn bullish on what this co. has in its pipeline. I'd like to see them expand and start opening shooting centers all over the country where they can dominate, become the Walmart of ranges, and allow a poor working class guy like me to shoot all day long for under 50 bucks. IMHO shooting range prices are strangling aficionados of handguns and definitely crimping the amount of time they get to practice. The thugs however dont go to ranges much. They just find an abandoned house(or not so abandoned) and make that into a range. What we gonna do about that, boys?
    Dec 10, 2013. 01:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Competition Making Netflix A Good Short Candidate [View article]
    Doesnt sound so good now does it,Gary. Just remember, for every time a person is shoting another person has to agree to buy their stock. Why should we assume that the person going long is stupid. I guess that makes apple and visa and all the stocks that flew over 300 this year sure winners to short, yes?

    Whats sad is that ihj this thread all of you are concerned with numbers. 50 yrs ago that was thre main thing. Now much more than p/e and debt is the ingenuity of the mgmt team!!!! How do you all think buffett made all his money? Buy just buying and holding? No! By buying and getting controlling say on the board. And hes the first to admit he dont know squat about technology. Whats sad as an aside is that there are soooooo many people with great ideas who will never be heard from because they have the ideas but no marketing savvy for internet things. They cant make a website, dont know coding, cant get into the top 20 on search engines. Thats 1/2 the battle right there to succeed today. I know, I watched all my ideas stagnate and die over last 15 yrs because I cant make a simple website without it looking like a childs crayon drawing. When the ceo's of netflix, microsoft and other big co's start doing things to draw out the little guys sitting home watching tv or watching netflix but have 100 winning ideas how to make money, we will see a game changing move in internet productivity. Watch!!!

    I for one wouldn't think its a bad idea for Netflix to actually start getting into the brick and mortar theaters so eventually they control it all. And guess what......for every 5 times you go to the netflix theater, you get a month free or 2 movies free on your computer. Geee........ yuh think theres some overlap there. Yet Netflix wouldn't take my phone call. I have 20 ideas to make them a fortune. So do you and many other people. The internet is strictly about trading ideas. Buying books and movies online is just a result of that, that's all.
    Oct 3, 2013. 12:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Competition Making Netflix A Good Short Candidate [View article]
    When Apple went from 30 to 115 in 1 yr, a stockbroker I ran into in a casino mensroom told me the same thing. "If you bought apple at 33, youd have to be nuts not to take the money and run.' Havent you guys figured it out yet. The Internet climate is noth9ing like it was in 2000. Many reasons . Heres a big one. I have at least 6 lady friends scattered all over Africa whose cell phone is their sole means of communication. So they now can afford to be online more than the average american. They give them bundled plans in africa where they get phone, emailing and the internet thrown in for free for either so much per month, or for each 500 min you buy. In other words, Netflix and other "first movers" in retail have customers much more global than just 12 yrs ago. And its growing like weeds. Sadly the amount of fraud coming out of these African countries is diabolocal enough to make Jon Gotti seem like a boy scout. When we can find the "first mover" in stopping these scams and also pilfering personal information, youll be a guaranteed multi-millionaire on that one too. Theres a lot more "gimmees today than there were 12 yrs ago. And now Im seeing another trend. Ways to get around using paypal and credit cards. They have bitcoins and vanillasnow and all kinds of ways to pay for stuff that cant be traced. Its opening up a whole market for buying things both legal......and NOT! What I just gave away for free here in my last 3 posts should have made a lot of people rich if they knew me just 2 yrs ago, and this info doesnt get old either. Good luck!
    Oct 3, 2013. 12:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Competition Making Netflix A Good Short Candidate [View article]
    Gary a lot of guys "knew" when this was 50 or 60 and apple was 30 or 40 where they were going because they were known as first movers in the game. I myself would be a wealthy man today just from apple and netlix if as manager of my retired moms brokerage acct of about 200k she got very sick and would nt let me make any changes to buy those suckers. Then when I finally convinced her a year later, she died. You can bet theres a few thousand people who would be working regular jobs that now are retired at 30 because they saw the same thing I saw.

    Asw an aside, netflix has a magic to it. Like McDonalds(but less costly on your health) Is there a logical reason Mcdonalds still exists today with what we know about health and nutrition now a days. No! But some brands just have that magic. Neflix was one of them and I saw that the only ones who had as good management were coinstar and I wanted my mom to buy both.
    Hint: The best way to play stocks is to have a huge market and only 2 or 3 competitors and buy all 3. Usually 2 out of 3 make you a lot of money. It 3 go up, you are wealthy for life. Im doing this enough yrs to know. Want a really nice hint. Same was true 2-3 yrs ago when cloud computing started getting big. EMC was not such a sure bet back then not CTXS and others. And 3 yrs later.....its still a field that someone tech savvy could pick out the best 2 or 3 players and put ALL his money in this sector and in 5 yrs be rich for life.

    Same with starbux. Why on earth would starbux with its rediculous prices and acidy coffee that burns your stomach lining constantly have growth. Youd think it would back fire and people would yearn for more mom and pop cafes. Ahhh the magic of branding. I havent been in a starbux but 2x in 5 yrs. I like my stomach exactly the way it is. And at age 50, all the women are way too young for me. Hey thats what we need. A coffee chain for us baby boomers.....
    Oct 3, 2013. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Punch Your Netflix Ticket [View article]
    Sep 12, 2013. 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Punch Your Netflix Ticket [View article]
    Port, you are 100% right, although thats how we had the crash of the 90's where everyone thought valuations were irrelevent....BUT...This is Netflix! And they are the leader, and first mover. We must look at the fact that since they dont seem to like stock splits, they want institutional investors holding this and what do institutions know that we retail guys dont. Maybe nothing. But lets look at the possibilities:

    Netflix can reward shareholders by:

    1-Being bought out by Sony or any big Hollywood studio directly so this way it gives the studio a massive hold on distribution and also new writing/directing talent as Netflix last 3 hits have shown.

    2-They partner or even buy out Redbox Kiosks(used to be coinstar,remember) and buy out the co. that already bought THEM out.

    3-Netflix gets new talent for real cheap(compared to what they would have to pay a Scorsese or a Robert Dinero anyway) and they can get into the movie business and like the mob of the 1920's that controlled the brewing, shipping,trucking,trade routes and even which customers could buy the product,they controlled it from point A to point Z! That means you control the price to a large degree.

    4-Netflix makes a few buyouts of co's whose technology we arent that familiar with that could help them find new ways to stream. You can bet they are out there.

    5-Netflix does what AOL did to get huge. Give away free trials and leave their discs on store and supermarket counters all over the country giving everyone, even current subscribers a free something or other! That right there imho would help them corner the market altogether.

    6-Netflix gets into the laptop and phone app business and sells these things at cost so you can use the special app already downloaded on every machine to watch their movies...of course with 3 free months to get you nice and addicted first. Remember in American gangster, Frank Lucas sold his blue magic at the best price and gave the best deal so everyone would want his stuff? I can even imagine Netflix getting some decent generic japanese computer maker to put the netflix brand i=on their desk/laptops and this way netflix becomes even more well known! I better shut up or Netflix wont hire me and I have not begun to run out of ideas for them. Thats the point. They have sooooo many ways to go. Unlike Blockbuster...(R.I.P.) And I'd also like to see netflix add the human social experience back into watching movies that only mom and pop video stores had and bring about the return of brick and morter stores! But less of them and monthly memberships.Dont you all miss going into a neighborhood store and loading up on like 5 videos for $10 and not even caring if you dont have time to watch all of them when they are due back? Netfix to $500 in 2-3 yrs. If we can get a nice dip back to 260, Id love it. Dont think we will see it which is why Netfliz wants this in the hands of Institutions. They dont sell nearly as quick as retailers and small hedge funds and scheming traders.
    Sep 12, 2013. 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Competition Making Netflix A Good Short Candidate [View article]
    To have the infrastructure(and dont mention huge lead in brand name) as well as 2 out of 3 huge original content hits, is like being the mob with control over the unions in the 60's and 70's. You get a piece of every single spoke on the wheel. Am I wrong? Eventually if Sony or someone doesnt buy them out, now, they will become too big to be competed with or bought out and youll have to go around them or with them on everything. Can you think of any other parties who have used that business model? "Wink."
    Sep 11, 2013. 09:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Competition Making Netflix A Good Short Candidate [View article]
    sak, you are 110% correct. I dont think Netfix has any problem with undercutting all its competitors which is why profits are slow in coming. This writer doesnt understand that it is part of the Netflix strategy. Low profits now, Huge market share later. (As in next 5-7 yrs) They are very aware of how Blockbuster disappeared as they were the main reason and I think they between their original content which their latest "Orange is the new black" about women in prison" i dont care for but seems everyone else does.....and their ability to give you a monthly sub without you needing to hire a lawyer to read the fine is going to wind up as the mobsters of old did...not just control bringing you the booze, but making it, providing all the new prodicts and maybe even buying out small indie movie companies oir at least hiring big name directors for brand advantage!!!! Their future will be determined as to where they step in the new directions they go. They have a loooooot of time to spare. the others dont! So if netflix makes a blunder or 2,they arent out, if amazon or hulu make a mistake,they could be left behind forever. I wanted my mother to buy netflix for her retirement port. and she wouldnt listen to me. Im sick about it now. And if you dont think this could go to $1000 a share in 3-4 yrs, good luck shorting it. I think the shorts could temporarily win, but the longs have much more to gain than shorts do.Imagine if they get into the kiosk biz and compete with rEDBOX and all of those guys. Thats what Meyer Lansky would do. -) Control the distribution and production from beginning to end. They are the only ones in a strong enough position to do it. Worst case for investors is if Sony Entertainment buys them out. Then it becomes a blue chip stock. I'm not in it yet, at least wait till I buy a chunk! -)
    Sep 11, 2013. 09:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson: Analysis And Management Meeting Imply 100% Upside Potential [View article]
    And what stock do we buy, to pay for the ridiculously priced ammo which has pretty much taken me out of the game of "shooting as a hobby." RGR and smith are the only 2,right? And they dont make much on handgun ammo,do they?
    Aug 4, 2013. 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Moves To Become The HBO Of The Internet [View article]
    Not being totally sarcastic, why dont we wait for gang crime to start growing more out of control to the point that even going to the movies becomes a slight risk for you and your family, then we will have achieved that cacoon society where everyone stays inside except to go to work. (This has actually been predicted 15 yrs ago by sociologists to happen by 2011). Then all dvd, both mail and streaming co's will become even more hugely profitable. You mean there are people on this thread who do not see us heading in that direction as our prison population has blown past 2 million and going?

    I just wondering if one of the big cable co's can buy out both NFLX and HBO
    May 22, 2013. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A 'House Of Cards' [View article]
    Josh, Your numbers breakdown is fantastic. Awesome job. Yes, it sure looks as if this is a screaming short. But...why would you(or anyone else) not put your entire life savings or at least your entire portfolio into a NFLX short if the real value of this is under $40.Let me play devils advocate and tell me if I am wrong. First off, I am 99% sure I am not wrong.....that not one person who subscribes to seeking alpha is going to "let it all ride" on this apparently sure thing. Now lets ask why. What is ion the back of our mind that will prevent us from putting even 25% of our life savings and add to it every month on top of it to get a very,very early retirement. I will take a good guess: Branding. There still is no metric for valuing what a co.'s brand is worth , only that it's ..EVERYTHING! If this is so, then what about the possibility of a big movie studio buying Netflix out tpo lock up the streaming and Internet side of movies. Think Virgin Atlantic(VMED) just a few years ago when asked what Virgin does the CEO said "Think Virgin Everything." And we could have bought Virgin for under $5 a share when he told us that!

    Think what could happen if NFLX makes a deal to either merge with a Movie Studio, buy one of their own, have an amateur movie makers online clinic/software where people get to make free movies and go for the fame and fortune with a simple You Tube type program(this is long overdue for new talent anyway!!!) that could have in a few short years people from every part of the world competing with each other for their shot at paradise and escape from poverty.And getting paid on a very similar structure as Seeking Alpha does now! And what if NFLX finds a way to keep Amazon and the rest at bay, like a good general would do. To me thats the main thing that would make this the next " Netflix Everything" grow strategic alliances while keeping Amazon and CoinStar out. Hey the Aol-Viacom deal didnt work back then, but the Internet is much older and more brand oriented now than ever before. So the truth is, this stock will likely never get to and stay at the $38 range. They will either fly to $1000 share as they become the biggest International entertainment hit that can find a way to bring many more country's citizens into the race of subscribers. (Just think of smuggled netflix dvd's in Dictatorial media controlled countries! ) or they could be out of business or bought out.(especially if this ever went under $15 a share which I suspect your overly generous numbers are hinting at.) Which way to bet? It is obvious. It just isn't a sure thing as we'd like to believe. Branding has always been everything. I still cant believe Mc'Donalds is actually still in business! Heck, why not have MCD and NFLX do a deal where every buyer of a meal over $5 gets a free rental online. And do that with every Mcdonalds in the world!!! NFLX could make a fortune just with a 50 cents per video kick back. Hey, does NFLX need a good promo guy? Im available! -)
    Apr 27, 2013. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment