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jenksjr

jenksjr
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  • W.P. Carey Ups Its Dividend, Here's Why I'm Staying Bullish On Shares [View article]
    WPC touching 59.55 today!
    Apr 1 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selecting Stocks For My Second Quarter Watch List [View article]
    Sorry, about that. The way Schwab showed the data it appeared there was a cut to 2012 Dividend. But it looks like Schwab put 5 dividend payments into 2011, making 2011 appear greater than 2012. And, they are showing 2013 only having 3 payments, making 2012 and 2013 appear equal.
    I usually do abetter job at cross checking and double checking. But, was in hurry to finish the comment and get out of the house! The data from different providers can sometimes be confusing and needs to be carefully checked!
    Mar 26 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selecting Stocks For My Second Quarter Watch List [View article]
    Bob,
    Tim Hortons or THI is listed as a Challenger with 8 years of dividend increases. The 1 yr DGR is 23% and the 5 yr is 26% (from Fidelity. Present yld is 2.10 and payout ratio is 45.4%. Forward EPS growth (3-5 yrs) is 10.2%. Last 5 yrs was 12%. A $5000 investment over the next ten years should payout about $3800 in dividends. Compare that to MCD at about a $2100 payout. CBRL's payout is much better at about $4800. Both CBRL and THI are on my watch list. They are both have pulled back recently and there may be an entry point soon. I will probably buy both CBRL and THI. I like THI because of it's footprint in the US is small but growing. Also, it is growing internationally. I would suspect the growth for CBRL will be a somewhat slower pace, but good enough to continue good divy's.
    Take care,
    Jim
    Mar 24 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Selecting Stocks For My Second Quarter Watch List [View article]
    Bob,
    Thanks for the article. I appreciate all your insights.

    You might want to check out THI and compare to CBRL. Dividend growth and forward eps growth looks promising. Read Dale Roberts article here: http://seekingalpha.co... for further info.
    Also, check out the power points on the company's investor page.

    Jim
    Mar 23 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selecting Stocks For My Second Quarter Watch List [View article]
    FYI,
    I believe GPS recently had a dividend cut in 2012 and a freeze in 2013.
    Mar 23 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Dividend Return Will Guide My 2014 Decisions - Part 2 [View article]
    408,
    Thanks for the comment to the comment. As to your question.

    Check out Morgan Myro's article "Introducing The Earnings Yield Growth Root". Basically, he uses the square root of 1/PEG times 10 to come up with a number grading system between 6 and 9. A value less than 6 would be over valued a number above 7 would be fair to under valued. It's worth a look.

    Also, make sure you read or reread Bob Wells stock picking methods.

    One think I have noticed about my "10 Dividend" idea is that the higher the dividend you start with the better or easier it is to get a larger accumulation after 10 years. Take for instance ATT (T) and Rogers Comm. (RCI).
    When I calculated the numbers for ATT I used dividend of 1.84 dividend by 32.09 giving yield of 5.73%. I used a DGR of 2.3. The 10 year accumulated dividend was $3182. For Rogers I used dividend of 1.65 dividend by 38.75 giving yield of 4.25%. The DGR used was 5.2. The 10 year accumulated dividends were $2703. So, even with more than twice the DGR Rogers starting at a lower dividend rate can't "catch up" to ATT's accumulated dividend.

    One other thing I look at is the technical's. Short term, has the stock made some significant moves up or down? Why? Is the stock making higher highs and higher lows or vica versa? For example, NJR just made a three day move from about 44 to over 48. Checking the latest news and conference call you would find NJR had a great quarter and the forward guidance was very bullish. So, do you jump on board at $48.62 (that's if you already decided this was a good candidate for your portfolio)? I would say no. I would suggest that the stock will make a pull back in a few days giving an opportunity to buy in.

    Hope this helps.
    Mar 15 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Dividend Return Will Guide My 2014 Decisions - Part 2 [View article]
    Bob,
    Thanks for the article. As usual, what you have to say is always valuable to me, as well as others, on our quest for the DGR stocks that will see us through our retirement.
    Bob, I've been working on an idea for a way to get a better handle on dividend growth and how that growth plays out over a ten year period.
    Here's what I've done. First, I look at the last 1 - 5 years of DGR for a particular stock. I will use Fidelity data base to find the dividend history and the listed 1 and 5 year growth rates. Usually, I will double check these DGR's by doing my own calculations. Then analyzing this info I will decide which DGR to use for further calculations.
    Once I have the DGR calculated, obtain the stock price and the annual dividend amount, I will calculate the cumulative 10 years dividend amount based on a beginning investment of $5000. When I have that amount for the selected stocks I can make a comparison to see which stock should produce the best income for the future.

    I'm doing this because I don't want to use a DGR that my be to high. I believe the most recent dividend increases for a particular stock are the most important for any future dividend calculations. For example, take CMS, its reported 5 year DGR in the CCC report is listed as 23.2% Do you believe CMS will increase its dividend over the next 5 years at the rate? Not if recent increases are an indicator. The 1 year DGR is listed as 5.88%. The reason the 5 year is so high is because it looks back to a base year of 2008 when the divide was only $0.36 per year. If you calculate a 3 yr DGR using numbers from 2011 to 2014 you find it only to be 8.74%. As you can see the DGR is drastically lower than the 5 year number. When calculating future dividend increases I would use a 6% DGR. Cumulative 10 year dividends would be about $2500. Not bad.

    But, now, I have a number to compare to, say, AVA. Its cumulative ten year dividend is about $2700. So, maybe a better stock in the long run?
    Make any sense?
    Mar 14 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Jeff Immelt: 'The Age Of Natural Gas Is Upon Us' [View article]
    Who is going to tell China to stop building coal fired plants? They will be adding the equivalent of about 18 mid-sized (~1 GW) plants per year for the next 30 years. They are also planning to use coal to produce liquid fuels and syn gas fuel. Their total consumption of coal is expected to hit 4.8 Billion metric tons by 2020, up from 3.5 Billion in 2010. By 2035 China will account for 57% of the world's total consumption of coal.

    And, don't forget about India, Japan, and Germany. They also are planning on more coal usage.

    Coal consumption may decline in the US, but the rest of the world relies heavily on coal for electrical production. So, don't count coal out anytime soon.
    Feb 26 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Gold has just reversed a 28 month correction. Gold has dropped 37% since Sept 5, 2011. It is now trading above the 200 day sma. That's the first reason I don't believe your thesis.

    The second reason, continued QE Taper will not have much effect on the price. The market has already taken that into account, it's already "baked in the cake".

    Third, the US dollar is in down trend and until that reverses the price of Gold can continue upward.

    Fourth, listening to and researching Gold miners, who I would think know more about the price direction that most of us, are optimistic on Gold moving higher.

    One last thing, historical evidence shows that after each of the last 11 corrections in gold, the price recovers an average of 70% of its lost value in the same length of time it lost that value.
    I don't believe we will see $770 and time soon. On the contrary, I believe we could see gold at $1500 by the end of 2014.
    Feb 23 05:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Is It A Golden Opportunity? [View article]
    A question to ponder.
    Should you pay 2.35 x book value for SDRL when you can buy ESV, RIG, or DO for 1 x book? You also can buy NE for less than 1.5 x book.
    Feb 20 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Why This Stock Is Undervalued And Should Be Owned By Every Investor [View article]
    MichaelJ8,
    Do not overlook ESV. See my comments above from 8:20 PM today.
    Feb 18 12:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Why This Stock Is Undervalued And Should Be Owned By Every Investor [View article]
    Vireoman,
    Thanks for the reply.

    I'm hoping 48.25 was the bottom. I'm sure it can retest that. I guess we'll find out on the 20th.
    The valuation below 50 become compelling. If Yahoo is correct, Book is almost $54. Below 50 the yield becomes 6%. The big questions are last Q's EPS and 2014 guidance. Analysts are looking for about $1.60 for last Q and about $1.30 for next.
    If they disappoint big, then a watch, the bottom could be low $40's.

    Take care.
    Feb 17 11:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Why This Stock Is Undervalued And Should Be Owned By Every Investor [View article]
    A Prudent Investor,
    Not that it's any of your business, but I'll answer you anyway (since I'm a nice guy).
    I ask people questions so I might learn something about them or from them. Also, it may help them to think through the statement they made, maybe do more research and ultimately learn something themselves.

    Now let me ask you a question. Why are you here?
    Feb 17 11:27 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Why This Stock Is Undervalued And Should Be Owned By Every Investor [View article]
    Renmycat,
    Could you give some color on why you think crude oil will be $90-$92 by May 1st? If US and world economies are picking up steam, as it appears. Wouldn't that increase the demand for oil, thus propping up the price?
    Feb 17 10:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold: Tough Times Ahead [View article]
    TDWelander,
    Sorry, but apparently it is you who are not up to date. If you used the link above it would bring up the 2014 Full Year Outlook Document from the ABX web site. Which gives guidance for 2014 gold @ $1300. Also, if you would look up the 2013 Q4 and Year-End Report, read carefully, under the 2014 Outlook topic (top of page 6) , you will find $1300 for 2014 gold assumption.

    I stay up to date by not relying on everything I read in SA. I try to go to the source documents to be sure of the information.
    Feb 17 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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