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Ryan_C

Ryan_C
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  • Forget 'Don't Fight The Fed' - It's Time To Fed-Proof Your Portfolio [View article]
    you have a great string of logic there, but do you actually think the CPI is only 2%? I realize that's how they *report* it, but what they say and what it actually is can be 2 very different things
    Mar 22, 2013. 04:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Slip Slidin' Away From Our Highs: Does FedEx Give Us Reason To Fear? [View article]
    Good article, and nice call on the oil-short. That's pretty cool the markets respect the Phillip so much as to close shop. boo-ya-ka-shah!
    Mar 22, 2013. 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Hides In The Shadows [View article]
    Thanks Seth
    Mar 19, 2013. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Hides In The Shadows [View article]
    I am somewhat following you on the shadow banking stuff, but would like to read up on it more. Any good websites or books you would recommend?
    Mar 19, 2013. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Inflation Could Infest The United States [View article]
    of course!
    Mar 14, 2013. 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Inflation Could Infest The United States [View article]
    budget deficit has *dropped* under cash-basis accounting, totally ignoring the frightening liabilities incurred via soc. security and medicare liabilities. they couldn't pass an audit with that budget from a two-bit wanna-be firm
    Mar 14, 2013. 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Inflation Could Infest The United States [View article]
    *sigh* my point with the thanksgiving example is the food price increase is getting bigger every year. 13% last year.
    Mar 14, 2013. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Inflation Could Infest The United States [View article]
    1) I always interepreted Mr. Williams in the sense that he himself was actually starting from 1980 and going forward. My mistake, I have read that write-up before and I guess missed that part (he writes in a pretty thick style, so not surprised)
    2) You only quoted what looks good for your argument. The full quote still proves my point, if not even more...the adjustments he uses come straight from the BLS!

    "The alternate estimates are based on adjusting the published CPI-U for cumulative annual differences in CPI **as estimated by the BLS** for the impact of its various methodological changes since the early 1980s (or 1990s)...

    I do not recalculate the CPI, only adjust for the reported, aggregate biases, **generally using the BLS numbers** "

    I have posted several times in this article alone instances of 1% being way off from reality. You're a perfect example of someone who comes up with a theory and bends and twists the facts however you please so that you are still right. I call it Bill O'Reillyism

    IMF food inflation: http://bit.ly/ZPZ8hu
    Mar 14, 2013. 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Inflation Could Infest The United States [View article]
    > "Deficits have been falling for the last 3 years or so, and they've continued to contract and will continue to contract in the near future. Maybe not as fast as you or I would like, but still, "higher and higher deficits" is pretty wrong. "

    Ok I like the optimism, I really do, but a couple things here...the Fed will either continue QE and increase inflation of the money supply, or the Fed will refuse to bail Uncle Sam out anymore, rates sky-rocket and the Government's interest-on-debt burden *alone* will make running annual supluses impossible.

    Another thing when reading on NBC.com that the defecits are getting "smaller" every year is that these numbers are conveniently ignoring a big part of the pie - they aren't even considering unfunded liabilities!! The NPV of Social Security and Medicare alone is -$200T (and growing!) by some estimates. How do you suppose they pay for that?

    source: http://n.pr/Rg4UWN


    And lastly, if you are going to tell me an Ivy League PHD in econ with *zero* incentive to lie is making stuff up, you're going to have to provide proof. Common sense and plenty of other numbers are supporting what John Williams has to say.
    Mar 14, 2013. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Inflation Could Infest The United States [View article]
    keep trying "macro". IMF claims 8% food price increase since 2005. They are probably conspiracy theorists though...

    http://bit.ly/ZPZ8hu
    Mar 14, 2013. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Inflation Could Infest The United States [View article]
    Not a valid argument. First of all, Williams' CPI *DOESN'T* claim 10%/year. Secondly, the massive deleveraging in 2009 dropped his estimate down to 5% year over year. He wasn't pretending prices were sky-rocketing when they clearly were not.

    http://bit.ly/12tTy2B

    That said, it's clear the Fed will continue to buy all the debt that the T needs to borrow (not to mention to keep yields low) so there's no arguing that more and more money won't be needed. Are you saying that you don't expect to feel anything close to 10% *real* CPI?

    But don't take my word for it, see what the IMF has to say:

    http://bit.ly/ZPZ8hu

    Yup, 8% increase in food prices since 2005
    Mar 14, 2013. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Inflation Could Infest The United States [View article]
    OK, if you're going to nit-pick that chart, most of that appreciation started in 2000 when the Fed tried to pump the economy after the equities crashed. I wasn't trying to make a point with 483% in the context of this article.

    He doesn't release his methodology? Now you're just making stuff up, he uses the 1980-version of CPI: constant basket of goods, end of story. He doesn't substitute, doesn't change the weightings, and doesn't make hedonic adjustments. Pretty easy stuff here, it's not unreasonable at all to think prices are going up near 10% if you do your own groceries. Here is a study of the cost of Thanksgiving dinner by the Texas Farm Bureau. Pretty simple example of how measuring an actual basket of goods shows *completely* different numbers than CPI.

    http://bit.ly/ZPT2xE

    The CPI isn't a standard of living measurement anymore. It's a standard of replacing things we used to like for crappier things to keep the cost about the same. It doesn't measure purchasing power, whatsoever.

    And another thing, where do you see a constant X+6% relationship here? The gap is getting bigger every year buddy...

    http://bit.ly/12tTy2B
    Mar 14, 2013. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Inflation Could Infest The United States [View article]
    All John Williams does is follow the same formula they did in 1980. Nothing special going on there. Why is that so hard to believe? That article is an incomplete argument

    "Hey this one thing's price didn't appreciate. inflation's not 10%"

    http://bit.ly/12RqcRG
    Mar 13, 2013. 11:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Inflation Could Infest The United States [View article]
    You should probably do some more thorough research before you take a stance. From the World Bank: http://bit.ly/Xwt7gH
    Mar 13, 2013. 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On CPI And Owners Equivalent Rent [View article]
    not to mention the CPI is arguably the *least* accurate measure of what it actaully sets out to measure
    Mar 13, 2013. 04:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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