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Ryan_C

Ryan_C
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  • Secular Bear Market Vs. Cyclical Bull Market [View article]
    Great article. I'm guessing you've looked at economic data that typically corresponds with each turning point in these secular trends?

    To me, you can't argue with the tides. But it helps to study the moon to provide re-assuring evidence.
    Mar 11 05:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Markets Still Have A Lot Left In The Tank [View article]
    > "Lately, the potential drag of U.S. fiscal austerity..."

    It's as if the bulls think this is a BAD thing in the long run. I really wish you would think long term instead of only until next Wednesday.

    > "Home prices have been rising and new-home activity has been improving. Rising home prices can be a big boon to consumer confidence by shoring up their net worth. "

    Home prices are going slightly up, yes. Obama is even pushing for lower ARMs for qualified individuals. But median house income is DROPPING. Use your heads people, a bubble is formed when asset prices rise faster than sustainable income. The housing market growth simply is not sustainable, just like last time.

    > Corporate earnings have been at record levels -- and are still growing.

    yup, because of all the layoffs. aggregate unemployment is 23%. Walmart just had its worst February in 7 years. The middle class is not spending because they aren't working and/or making less money than they used to
    Mar 11 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Markets Still Have A Lot Left In The Tank [View article]
    well said ndras. you need to take anything published by the BLS with a grain of salt. Then you need to go to shadowstats.com
    Mar 11 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Secular Bear Market Vs. Cyclical Bull Market [View article]
    unless you bought and held gold in 2000, knowing it was the beginning of the secular bear for equities
    Mar 11 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Is The 'Manipulator-In-Chief' Calling A Bottom? [View article]
    you're missing the point. fundamentals drive sentiment, not the other way around
    Mar 11 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Is The 'Manipulator-In-Chief' Calling A Bottom? [View article]
    Seriously, what are you talking about? You were talking about silver, I was talking about silver. Apples to apples here buddy, no pun intended on your extremely random and irrelevant reference to the fruit company. This is a secular bull for commodities coinciding with secular bear for equities which started in 2000. As you (should) know, the equity-commodity bear/bull dance has been going on for 100 years, maybe you've heard of it? The secular commodity bull is being perpetuated by an ever-increasing inflation problem, high debt on the government and personal level, and consequently low consumer-incentive. Knowing these fundamentals along with studying valuations/cycles in the equity markets in 1999 gave all of us enough evidence to know that the commodity cycle was here.

    > It is quite disingenuous and intellectually dishonest to say fundamentals only move the market SOMETIMES or just in the bigger picture.

    Again, what in the heck are you talking about? There can be short-term downtrends during secular cycles. In fact, there always are, that's how markets work. So yes, I can say that fundamentals have moved precious metals over the last 13 years, and each time it over-heats there is a correction, as there is with any long-term trend. Particularly savvy individuals who spotted this were able to trade around the dips and did even better than the 400-500% returns on gold over that time period. That said, I see gold/silver continuing north over the next 3-4 years and I really am not worried about losing my money because I know the fundamentals are still there - debt problem, low rates, high unemployment, inflation, etc.


    You need to calm yourself champ, I wasn't arguing against looking at the technicals (Elliot Wave analysis) they can be pretty darn nifty at spotting short-term projections. I was just asking, over the period of 10 years, what do you think is driving the overall trend of these short term moves? Fundamentals! So don't say fundamentals don't push the market, they always do! *Big picture*
    Mar 5 05:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Is The 'Manipulator-In-Chief' Calling A Bottom? [View article]
    Depends how you look at it. Each person can ask themselves: am I big picture, or someone obsessed with short -term movements? For me, I'm big picture, it's obvious to me where silver is going, and I am not bothered by this consolidation. To say that "fundamentals" don't matter is just silly though. What do you think drives these "Elliot waves" over the last 10 years? and for the next 2,3,4 years? Fundamentals bud.

    That said, I don't deny active traders using the technicals you alluded to can't make money - I know you guys do well! But you just have to understand we don't care because we know where it's going.
    Mar 3 02:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monetary Base Signals Renewed Rally For Gold [View article]
    keep doing those technicals brotha
    Mar 2 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Ski-Jump Market, Eye The Exits [View article]
    haha yes thank heaven indeed.
    Feb 28 02:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Growth, No Inflation, No Earnings [View article]
    no comment. that's what i thought
    Feb 27 06:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Growth, No Inflation, No Earnings [View article]
    Do you have a point or are you just spewing nonsense?

    Are you actually arguing that the CPI hasn't changed drastically over the last 20-30-40 years?
    Feb 26 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Growth, No Inflation, No Earnings [View article]
    OK - there needs to be some clarification when "authors" on SA say there is no inflation. Especially someone who calls themselves a macro-economics guy. Sure the CPI is low, but it's like people are comparing the headline CPI of today to what the CPI was in 1980 and going, "See! I told you, low inflation!" as if those two figures even measure the same thing. This should be common knowledge: the 1980-CPI was a true standard of living measurement- a true out of pocket expense for consumers given a constant basket of goods. The headline CPI today is a standard of substituting crappier things for the things we used to like, with some hedonic adjustments and a generous shifting of weighted averages sprinkled on top. With so much incentive to under-publish the CPI, you can't really blame the BLS. Medicare and SS are nowhere near insolvent as it is. Bump up entitlements by a true price-level increase, and the US would be tightening its own noose. So it's really up to you, believe Uncle Sam, or believe Ive League PHD's in Econ with zero incentive to lie: http://bit.ly/12tTy2B
    Feb 26 07:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is S&P 500 Overvalued? [View article]
    was looking at SH today. what do you think about the ultrashort/pro ultrashorts?
    Feb 26 06:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Ski-Jump Market, Eye The Exits [View article]
    In regards to what you said of the Fed Rate: "If it was pushed beyond 5% today the system would crash and gold would soar."

    Can you elaborate? I guess what you're saying is equities would be whacked, Treasuries would be obsolete, so where else would people park their money? Just interested in your thoughts, thanks for the good article

    ps Go Pink Sox
    Feb 26 06:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks And Gold: A Tale Of 2 Markets [View article]
    Good read - I think the most obvious veil in the world of investing is the headline CPI, and how blatantly under-represented that number is. Plotting the price of Oil in relation to the Dow, for example, shows just how much value equities have lost in this secular bear, whether the bulls want to believe it or not. Funny how common sense escapes some so easily. Thanks for sharing your thoughts Eric.
    Feb 26 03:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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