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  • The Bear Argument Collapse To Come [View article]
    Interesting thesis Michael. I would agree that EM could outperform US stocks in a normal cyclical environment but we are not in such an environment. In fact, EM largely depends on developed nation consumption and this has been woefully missing. All my long term indicators are pointing to a "bear" market in stocks. Only two other times since 1996 have I received this signal based on three concurrent indicators: January, 2008 & March, 2001. We'll see how it pans out ...

    Oct 10, 2015. 12:55 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post Crash, The Case For The Fall Melt-Up Of 2015 [View article]
    Michael, China is still on vacation. Once their markets open we'll return to reality. You're right about EM; but it can go down more. If the Chinese have to depreciate the Yuan 20 to 30% as some suggest, EM will be literally wiped out and EU right behind them. We'll be the prettiest girl at the ugly party but only because the ugly judge is drunk! The two keys to this market is how much the Chinese devalue their currency and whether or not the Saudis will cave and cut production which will have "knock on" effects in high yield.

    Don :-)
    Oct 5, 2015. 07:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Policymakers' Intentions Are More Critical Drivers Than Macroeconomics In The Week Ahead [View article]
    It's become more apparent to me with each passing month that the central bank QE experiment has failed and that recent events have proven "escape velocity" is unattainable until global price equilibrium is achieved. It's time to take our medicine and the market need a good flush ...
    Oct 5, 2015. 08:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Hike Moving Into Focus [View article]
    I thought the statement is bullish for stocks and the market seems pleased. Dollar also rallying. I see a September hike and concur with your assessment that it will still depend on two intervening employment reports. But I also surmise from the statement that the 25 basis point bump in September will be the only one this year.
    Jul 29, 2015. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consolidation Awaiting Fresh Developments [View article]
    Hi Marc, sounds like you feel comfortable that the Greek parliament will approve the legislation?
    Jul 14, 2015. 06:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Gains Limited Despite Greek Talk Failure And FOMC Looming [View article]
    Marc I see your point regarding Greece but what does the EU tell sovereigns like Slovakia who complied with EU strictures with much pain? I see Merkel and company stuck between a "rock and a hard place".
    Jun 15, 2015. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Contagion Returning? [View article]
    Hi Marc, I agree there will be some contagion but I don't see any other country leaving EMU. Maybe Cyprus? :-)

    As far as yields go, with the ECB pumping 60 Bn in QE/mo it's hard for me to get worried about peripheral yields blowing out. And Draghi won't have to worry about buying negative yields, that's for sure!
    Apr 20, 2015. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will GLD Respond After QE3 Ends? [View article]
    Good article but I would challenge the notion that if stocks fall because QE ends that money would flow into Gold and commodities. The very fact that equities weaken as a result of QE formally ending would be yet another deflationary indicator that stocks have been buoyed by monetary stimulus. Thus, rather than money flowing from stocks to gold the traditional paradigm would happen, money into Treasuries and possibly USD as an inadvertent beneficiary of that migration.
    Oct 25, 2014. 12:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Warning [View article]
    ATACX & BROTX aren't lagging because the strategy is faulty. They are lagging because historic inter market relationships are being skewed by central bank manipulation and noise! The bounce this week coincided with multiple announcements from "Fed speak", ECB announcement of ABS purchases (hardly a game changer for EU) and PBOC monetary injections into their banking system. Otherwise, traditional inter market relationships were starting to work well as it appeared the Fed was finally putting the breaks on QE and a low interest rate regime which is analagous to heroin for a junkie.
    Oct 18, 2014. 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Warning [View article]
    Good piece! Completely agree. I'd use GLD:DBB as SLV is in a netherworld between mostly a precious metal but also an industrial commodity.
    Oct 16, 2014. 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can't Keep A Good Buck Down [View article]
    Hi Mark, wanted to ask you something "off subject". There seems to be a growing consensus that the ECB will be providing more monetary accommodation in the EU. However, with the latest tepid growth in money supply and incrementally growing loan demand and given the possible transition from Draghi to Weidmann at the bank I don't see the ECB doing anything further. Do you? Thanks!
    Sep 26, 2014. 07:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digestion Is The Main Feature [View article]
    Hi Marc, in your view are ABS purchases going to be that effective since there is limited issuance of such securities? Thanks!
    Sep 5, 2014. 07:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB Action: Just A Question Of Time? [View article]
    I get the sense that the ECB is awaiting the April CPI and any bounce will be used as an excuse to delay a decision. In the meantime, liquidity continues to dry up as per a recent SoberLook piece (

    My fear is that they will dally until it's too late. The result of inaction is the main yet unseen challenge that the global economy now faces.
    Apr 12, 2014. 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plant A Tree Today, Sit In The Shade Tomorrow [View article]
    Agree that an adjustment in short term rates will be predicated on inflation expectations. Also see additional Treasury buying as ECB begins serious focus on the deflationary specter confronting them. Buying foreign bonds is the only way around ECB mandated monetary strictures. Agree with Kasqade that, in essence, buying floaters is a bet on higher inflationary expectations that are all but non existent other than some movement in Ags which are largely weather driven or Ukraine/Putin driven cataysts.
    Mar 27, 2014. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Message From The Bundesbank [View article]
    Interesting that you were able to quiz him on the "Swiss solution" which I think is the easy way out for them. The fact that we're getting press out of EU regarding deflation means there is concern behind close doors and a 1.40 Euro will certainly hasten the pace to outright deflation. I'm starting to think that the Euro tendency toward deflation along w/China are the potential scenarios that will kill any hope of a definitive global recovery. We shall see ...
    Mar 27, 2014. 06:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment