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  • ECB Action: Just A Question Of Time? [View article]
    I get the sense that the ECB is awaiting the April CPI and any bounce will be used as an excuse to delay a decision. In the meantime, liquidity continues to dry up as per a recent SoberLook piece (

    My fear is that they will dally until it's too late. The result of inaction is the main yet unseen challenge that the global economy now faces.
    Apr 12 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plant A Tree Today, Sit In The Shade Tomorrow [View article]
    Agree that an adjustment in short term rates will be predicated on inflation expectations. Also see additional Treasury buying as ECB begins serious focus on the deflationary specter confronting them. Buying foreign bonds is the only way around ECB mandated monetary strictures. Agree with Kasqade that, in essence, buying floaters is a bet on higher inflationary expectations that are all but non existent other than some movement in Ags which are largely weather driven or Ukraine/Putin driven cataysts.
    Mar 27 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Message From The Bundesbank [View article]
    Interesting that you were able to quiz him on the "Swiss solution" which I think is the easy way out for them. The fact that we're getting press out of EU regarding deflation means there is concern behind close doors and a 1.40 Euro will certainly hasten the pace to outright deflation. I'm starting to think that the Euro tendency toward deflation along w/China are the potential scenarios that will kill any hope of a definitive global recovery. We shall see ...
    Mar 27 06:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small Chinese bank suffers run [View news story]
    Technically, Chinese banks seem to be recovering as per the following ratio chart:
    Mar 26 06:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stars (And Russian Troops) Are Aligned For Higher Gold Prices [View article]
    Great article Tim! Consider the thesis that Gold is going higher because interest rates are going lower There is no inflation; only deflation and China woes are lending impetus to the deflationary spiral.
    Mar 16 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Price Set To Resume Its Long-Term Upward Trend [View article]
    Hi nooseah, appreciate your perspective but do not necessarily agree. But that's what makes a market ...
    Mar 10 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mixed Start To The Week [View article]
    Hi Marc, what's your take on the implications of the Chinese that the Chinese government, using Shanghai Chaori Solar as an example, is setting a new precedent in not bailing out creditors. I know the elimination of the "moral hazard" issue is a long term positive but I'm concerned that a change in investor sentiment in a country where corporate over leverage is the rule could precipitate either a sell off in Chinese corporate debt or drying up of liquidity in that market. What say ye?
    Mar 10 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Price Set To Resume Its Long-Term Upward Trend [View article]
    Hi Tony, thanks for the article & perspective. I'm not as bullish as you are; actually I'm ambivalent on gold's intermediate to long term direction. I thought it's reaction to the Ukraine crisis was muted compared to past responses. And since the beginning of the year, it's presented a riddle so far as inter market relationships go. I address it more here:

    Inevitably, gold will be captive to interest rates until we start to see some real inflationary pressures in the US and global economy. And if all the weak economic reports this winter were due to the weather then I don't think the Spring will bode well for the yellow metal. We shall see. Thanks for your insights.
    Mar 9 04:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The ECB To Do? [View article]
    Wow! Ceasing sterilization would certainly go a long way toward solving their problem. Is that something that's a possibility tomorrow? Would they even announce that or just let it happen?
    Mar 5 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forex: Big Week Ahead Technically [View article]
    I'm wondering the same thing as Steve. The USD intra day rally on Friday after the announcement regarding Russian occupation of the Crimea was a "dead cat" bounce. It told me (along w/gold & treasuries price action) that traders simply didn't want to be "long" thru the weekend. And I also believe that if Russian aspirations don't go any further than the Crimea this will be much concern about nothing. However, with Russian nationalist stirrings in the industrial and resource rich Donets Basin any move by the Russians into that region (not practical militarily unless they seize the entire Ukraine) would turn the entire FOREX on its head, sparking flight to USD.
    Mar 2 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold And GLD Dropped Friday And The Opportunity That Could Avail [View article]
    I appreciate your intra day analysis Markos. As we look at Gold on a daily basis it was bumping into Fibonacci resistance this week and started declining on Wednesday, before any crisis was apparent. In addition, GDX foretold the decline by a day when it was turned away at Fibonacci resistance as well. $USD was down because of poor 4thQtr GDP reported Friday. I touch on these topics here:

    Certainly, things have escalated over the weekend and it will be interesting what occurs on Monday but I saw Friday afternoon's weakness in stocks as traders not wanting to go home long for the weekend, given the circumstances. That explains why traditional flight to safety trades were relatively limp. Gold, treasuries and USD were telling us at that time that the Crimea was not something we had to worry about.
    Mar 2 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Minutes And Thoughts On Forward Guidance [View article]
    Hi Asbytec, I don't believe they're trying to fool anyone but the market's perception since QE started in 2009 is that the Fed is "on their side"; as though the Fed will never abandon the market. And I don't believe the Fed ever thought that way. These are a group of intellectuals determined to fulfill the mandate that's been set before them. The idea that if the economy started picking up in the spring as so many economists are predicting wouldn't lead to a substantially shortened timeline for raising short term rates I believe is bordering on naivete and is dangerous. I address it a bit more here:
    Feb 22 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Minutes And Thoughts On Forward Guidance [View article]
    My take on the FOMC minutes yesterday is that forward guidance will change "on a dime" regardless of whether the market is projecting not raising rates until 2016 or whenever interest rates futures are pinpointing such a rise. My perception is that the market trusts the FOMC too much not to change they're tone entirely based on what they see as changing economic conditions. Don't misunderstand, I'm not predicting they will raise short term rates anytime soon. As a matter of fact, I could see them actually temporarily ceasing the taper based on the persistently low inflationary pressures in the economy manifested in the details of this morning's CPI. But the fact that there was an actual discussion on the topic of when short term rates should be raised was, in my opinion, a warning sign that the market should not listen to what they say but should be attentive of economic conditions that would necessarily warrant raising short rates.
    Feb 20 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clues To Market Direction [View instapost]
    Thank You for your feedback!
    Feb 10 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB Preview [View article]
    Thanks, Marc!
    Feb 6 07:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment