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jb8967

jb8967
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  • U.K. passes cigarette pack branding ban [View news story]
    I assume you are referring to Chinese counterfeit cigarettes (CF) and not those that might be genuine Chinese (CNTC) owned brands and imported by a JV with PMI. Remember, the largest legitimate manufacturer in the world is the Chinese monopoly (~2 trillion per annum); about 2x the size of PMI and with enough cash to buy (with leverage) any of the 4 publicly traded majors.

    CF remains a problem, but the biggest and growing issue is contraband product legitimately produced but illegally sold in unauthorized markets; ostensibly to evade excise taxes. So called ILLICIT WHITES. This is having impact to legitimate markets (e.g: Australia, UK), where taxes have increased to a point where the illicit whites offer an arbitrage wind-fall for criminal enterprises.
    Mar 12, 2015. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.K. passes cigarette pack branding ban [View news story]
    I agree that PM is very exposed to the USD as practically ALL of its income, minus investment instruments (hedging, etc.), is non USD denominated. In this regard, it is one of the few (if only) major NYSE traded stock with this level of USD currency exposure.

    As for the plain packaging issue; without commenting on the policy, the impact is problematic IMO. PMI, in particular, carries a strong premium portfolio. Anything that erodes brand presence cannot help, as opportunities to advertise are going increasingly dark in many major (hi OCI) markets. Cigarettes are one of the few products consumed "daily" where the branded packaging stays with the consumer all day. Taking the branding away from that portable advertising vehicle is not helping brand equity.

    Australia has certainly taught a lesson insofar as legitimate domestic volumes have been impacted. In fact, PMI justified shuttering its Moorabin factory, in part, due to domestic volume declines. Of course, the decline was already in motion with increased excise taxes, so the picture is muddied by the concurrent fiscal policy move. In any event, PMI got to shutter an expensive manufacturing operation with this policy move. It will not have this type of "stick"in the UK, where it has no production. Coupled with the recent shutdown in Holland (PMH BoZ), the political environment must be challenging in Brussels.

    Lastly, the more generic the packaging and higher the taxation, the more difficult it will be to fight illicit trade (contraband and counterfeit).
    Mar 12, 2015. 12:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Has A Cash Flow Problem [View article]
    I love to read these types of comments with the benefit of hindsight. "...do you have any doubt that IBM will earn $20/share in 2015?"

    Apparently IBM's CEO does!!!!!!
    Oct 27, 2014. 04:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Taking A Hard Look At R&D [View article]
    Nokia invested HUGE money into mobile technologies and saw many of the trends before they became trends. Nevertheless, great R&D doesn't mean a great business. Quality of execution, timing, luck...there's a lot more than simply great R&D to sustain a 100 Bio enterprise. IMHO.
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris International Inc: 3 Trends To Watch Going Forward [View article]
    PMI Philippines is more a volume market than a significant OCI driver for the Asia region, IMO.
    Sep 30, 2014. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Incredible 10 Million Unit Sales On Launch Weekend - Fact Or Fiction? [View article]
    How can he not get "bent out of shape"? It's by design!
    Sep 29, 2014. 07:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Has To Take Bendgate Seriously [View article]
    No, actually you are discounting another very real issue. Metal fatigue.

    If, in fact, the design flaw is real (as demonstrated and explained), then the stress point will likely fatigue the ALU case at the cutout over time.

    So TIME is actually a factor...as a proxy for mechanical cycling at the point of stress.
    Sep 28, 2014. 07:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Has To Take Bendgate Seriously [View article]
    The motherboard might have an issue with this approach.
    Sep 28, 2014. 06:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Has To Take Bendgate Seriously [View article]
    Yes, you're referring to the floating decimal error on one of Intel's early Pentiums. I had the issue, so I called Dell. The customer service rep said it was not an issue unless I was an aeronautical or nuclear engineer. As I am a nuclear engineer, I simply stated the fact and got the upgrade for free.

    You can't make this stuff up.
    Sep 28, 2014. 06:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Has To Take Bendgate Seriously [View article]
    That so-called nutball got so many hits off of his two videos that his ROI from the two 6+'s he destroyed is significantly greater than if he had invested the same funds in Apple stock 7 years ago.
    Sep 28, 2014. 06:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6+ Isn't Indestructible, But Who Cares? [View article]
    http://onforb.es/1qIg1nS

    Forbes summary of issue.
    Sep 28, 2014. 06:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6+ Isn't Indestructible, But Who Cares? [View article]
    Not necessarily. Read this article from Forbes:
    http://onforb.es/1qIg1nS <span class="wrc_icon wrc13" rating="{"icon":"icn_e...

    Seems the structural steel insert screw is positioned too close to the edge of the button cutout, resulting in a stress point / design fault.

    IMO it's a real problem that may require a slight design modification. However, this also implies a recall, warranty issues, some factory retooling, brand erosion, supply chain gymnastics...etc.

    It's not a hear no evil see no evil story.
    Sep 28, 2014. 05:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6+ Isn't Indestructible, But Who Cares? [View article]
    Yes, dislocations in the aluminum alloy will propagate to stress points over time through a process known as metal fatigue.

    However, the problem with the iPhone 6+ design is well explained in the Forbes article: http://onforb.es/1qIg1nS

    I have no idea if this flaw is replicated in the smaller iPhone 6...but there is always a risk of guilt by association...which Apple needs to head-off.

    One of the most viral tech videos in history shouldn't be brushed off with a single written statement. IMHO.
    Sep 28, 2014. 05:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6+ Isn't Indestructible, But Who Cares? [View article]
    http://onforb.es/1qIg1nS

    Consumer Reports' three point test didn't cut the mustard.
    Sep 28, 2014. 05:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6+ Isn't Indestructible, But Who Cares? [View article]
    http://onforb.es/1qIg1nS

    ...a good summary.
    Sep 28, 2014. 05:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
458 Comments
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