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filipo

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  • The Gold Market Is Going Insane [View article]
    gel,
    Not that I'm such a big fan, but consider this:
    "He who comes at the end of a debt supercycle faces the problems."

    That has nothing to do with Obama, Ackman, Shiller, Summers or whoever, but everything with historical non-productive debt accumulation.
    Oct 22 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Market Is Going Insane [View article]
    matt,

    "What gives, I wonder."

    Sentiment..
    Oct 21 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Market Is Going Insane [View article]
    Avi,
    Everyone ?
    Or just the movements of the (silent) minority ?
    It seems to me that those who like us give vent to their gold expectations, whether they be short or long gold, don't count for much.
    It is the silent minority (CB's, large players) who set the price and whom you track.
    Oct 21 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Market Is Going Insane [View article]
    Who by fire ... ?

    http://bit.ly/1sLHHfZ
    Oct 21 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big drop in SPDR Gold Trust assets [View news story]
    All that gold fleeing from GLD warehouses straight into East Asian arms, I'd call that "sentiment".
    We shouldn't get sentimental when it appears nothing physical is left here.
    Oct 21 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Market Is Going Insane [View article]
    fish,
    Awfully thankful for your elaborate thesis on coffee.
    I had a whole lot of Costa Coffees in London.
    Didn't like them, they taste cichorium. To be frank, Starbuck's is better, but more expensive.
    At home I drink tea nowadays, green tea (used to have 5-6 cups of coffee a day when I was at work -didn't do me any good).

    The story of that snow plough murder gets odder by the minute:

    "MOSCOW, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The driver of a snow plough
    involved in the plane crash that killed the chief executive of
    French oil major Total TOTF.PA denies he is guilty and
    relatives say he never drinks, his lawyer said on Tuesday.
    Russia's Investigative Committee said Vladimir Martynenko
    was in a condition of alcoholic intoxication when the snow
    plough he was driving was in a collision with the private jet
    carrying Christophe de Margerie. ID:nL6N0SG0KE
    "He (Martynenko) is in shock. He considers himself guiltless
    as he followed all the instructions from the dispatcher," lawyer
    Alexander Karabanov told Reuters.
    He said his client would appeal against what the lawyer
    called the official version that Martynenko "was in a condition
    of alcoholic intoxication".
    "According to his relatives, he was sober in the morning and
    he doesn't drink at all due to chronic heart disease. Relatives
    are afraid that the airport authorities are just trying to make
    him ultimately responsible to avoid billions in lawsuits which
    are for sure to follow," Karabanov said."

    I expect money velocity still going lower even if it's (near) zero. Q is how will authorities respond. Contrarianadvisor has the answer, I remember.

    Reuters reported that ECB would start buying corporate bonds when needed. Too "nice" to be true as it appears now, it has been denied. One wonders who sends out these news flashes..
    Oct 21 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Market Is Going Insane [View article]
    fish,
    "Belgium" is a large T-bond buyer.
    "Belgium" stands for "the eurozone" in this regard.
    They use the belgian flag to do the operations.

    Still, I believe that large hedge funds, banks, institutional investors like pension funds, they all fairly constantly switch from bonds into equities and vice versa, according to what the market conditions.
    When they switch into bonds, yields go down and eq. prices go down as well; when they switch into equities, prices of eq. go up.
    That doesn't exclude that governments from all over the planet, especially US, eurozone, Chinese... are on the lurk to do their part of market gaming.

    But overall, I'm rather pleased with the work they do. At least they prevent chaos. Whether it's sustainable for a very long time is another question. I think not, but let's enjoy the party as long as it lasts.
    I find Obama's doggedly obstination to intervene wherever there's an injustice on earth more of a problem.
    Have you heard of that Total CEO killed by a Russian snow plough ? He wasn't such a great supporter of the petrodollar, was he ? If he has been killed on purpose, it sure is the perfect crime. If not it's just an odd coincidence.
    Oct 21 07:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Market Is Going Insane [View article]
    fish,
    >I'm back now and able to do some more research and write properly. Mac Air is excellent -fast & furious- but the 11 inch screen is a bit small to my worn eyes. Can't have the best of two worls: light to carry and easy to work with.

    Yes, the law of the unintended consequences.
    Neither do I know what gold will do the next few months. All I know is that over 10 odd years it won't go down unless there's a huge golden meteorite that splashes down on our planet.
    Cause of velocity of money being still very low, there's more Monetary easing in the pipeline. More asset bubbles to be expected, fi in gold.
    Avi might disagree on the correlation QE and higher gold price but if finally the extra money would be used for something constructive instead of for shorting the gold price on Comex, I see a better future for the POG imminent.
    BTW, I got this jewel from John Mauldin in my mailbox this morning; it's about V and it's good. If you read between the lines, it has a clear message pro owning gold.
    Enjoy the reading, he's way better than Martin Wolf:
    http://bit.ly/1sK2rVy
    How was your capuccino ?
    London was gorgeous, as always. Went to see the 888,000 poppies in the Tower Moat, quite impressive. They stand for the 888,000 British soldiers that have died in WWI:
    http://bit.ly/1sK2rVz
    Oct 21 06:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Market Is Going Insane [View article]
    fish,
    sorry, I meant to say:
    "Still, that's not a decisive argument to predict a higher gold price, since Comex is the only driving force."
    Oct 19 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Market Is Going Insane [View article]
    fish,
    Yes, that's what the article says, and I see no reason to doubt it.
    And with ebola approaching Sierra Leona's gold mines, mined quantities might start levelling out.
    Still, that's not a decisive argument to predict a lower gold price, since Comex is the only driving force.
    It might however convince the demand-side to go long massively.
    Only future can tell and these elements sure should be sufficiantly convincing enough for whoever who holds physical to keep it.
    Oct 19 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Market Is Going Insane [View article]
    Avi,
    You said you expected a breakdown of the POG October 17.
    I haven't seen that occurring, so I gather you are now of the opinion that the breakdown will happen in 2015 ? That was the second possibility you mentioned.
    Are there any new elements that have made you change your mind about that schedule ?
    Started appreciating your writings.
    Oct 19 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Market Is Going Insane [View article]
    fish,
    By macbook air in London, so I'll keep it short:
    World's biggest gold miner China gets depleted and looks for fish to catch in other ponds:

    http://reut.rs/1nvLMWo

    Of course that's not determining the POG since only foggy sentiment is, meaning Comex. Nevertheless, one never knows, one day .... it might convince the manipulators to get sentimental over the huge amounts of paper money wasted.
    Oct 19 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Marcellus Pipeline Boom Sets Stage For A 30 Bcf A Day Tsunami [View article]
    al,
    All right, I count on it. Don't wait too long. Our ships are waiting idle and when winter comes there's gonna be scrambling.
    Oct 11 05:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China/India Gold Demand: 2013 Déja Vu [View article]
    charles,
    Risk management is a science -some call it an art- that recently has been completely put upside down. The sad story of Lehman, RBS, Iceland 2008 is that they were catalysts to a complete reshuffle of risk management theory.
    As a banker AND a central banker you have to constantly ask yourself "what are the valuations of my assets ?"
    Housing, sovereign debt especially in Europe, asset backed securities, corporate bonds, gold.... all have to be questioned.
    There is one thing however that a lot of people seem to forget: in all that frenzy of dematerialization of assets that we have seen happening all over the world in the last decade, gold seems to be the sole and only asset that still exists in non-dematerialized form.
    That truth has been neglected by many for a long time, but now it comes back with a vengeance.
    People want something tangible, they're fed up with assets they can't touch, see, assets that can completely loose value overnight or that can be seized by the authorities.
    Retail Banks in the seventies kept a large part of their reserves in the form of gold. They have sold it all by now. A time will come they will try to buy it back, if the East leaves us any.
    Oct 11 05:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China/India Gold Demand: 2013 Déja Vu [View article]
    fish,
    "run away from the miners."

    Indeed. They hardly survive and in order to do so, they sell their soul to the devil, meaning they sell future production = hedging.
    GS has convinced Nyrstar to sell their future silver production five year ahead at depressed silver prices.
    Nyrstar doesn't mine silver in the first place. They deliver it as a by-product in their Australian zinc mine and are supposed to do the recovering and recycling by themselves in a factory that is being built -far from finished- in Port Pirie.
    There seem to be a lot of "ifs" in that story imo, but that's the way PM prices are being negatively influenced.
    Comex takes into account that the silver is already on the table.
    Oct 11 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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