"Goldman Sachs listed a bearish call on gold just prior to the sell-off."
How about that GS colleague's, JPM's, comment: "May 08; 3:06 PM With gold bears running rampant, J.P. Morgan’s new forecast for gold (GLD) to finish strong and trade near $1,700 by year-end is noteworthy."
Matthew sure didn't read that one. Else, he wouldn't have mentioned GS as a trustworthy argument.
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
IT, Well, I guess they indeed can't. But since they dispose of plentiful resources (capital, propaganda, secrecy, other "convincing" methods I'd rather not name...), the answer to the question "how long" will remain unanswered. I think something external will eventually purvey the answer, like an electoral revolt. Seen UKIP's latest figures as to that regard ?
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
IT, That's the one million $ question I have been asking myself: how much longer can they play this game of triggering the markets ? It all comes down to that. The 500 tons of paper gold that have been thrown onto the market may mean alot or nothing: no one knows how much of this JPM ETF is actual physical. If only half of it would be, it would take the physical market quite some time to swallow that. Russia f.i. on average buys 15 tons a month and can easily be considered as one of the biggest buyers, although it's not very clear how much comes from own mining. I agree with you that all the economic and political conditions for a higher gold price have remained in place, but Governments are a tough bunch. Rumour has it that they even subsidize miners to get a lower gold price output. Nothing of the kind would surprise me.
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
Fish, Although I completely agree with your skeptical approach on Comex and paper gold markets, there's one thing I still don't get: since the gold price is so low, why do some people sell their physical gold ? Indeed, although there's an ever growing physical demand, the physical supply doesn't seem to be the least hampered, not even at these low prices. I mean, I wouldn't sell, if I was convinced of the mediocrity of reward. In other words, where does physical keep on coming from ? It can't be all tungsten filled bars, can it ?
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
IT, You are right, but still, I'm puzzled by the low level of premiums on gold, traders ask over here: 0.60% on 1kg, 1.43% on 250g and 1.85% on 50g, that ain't much: http://bit.ly/YiQzf9 A few weeks ago, when the selloff occurred, premiums were way higher: up to 30% higher. The market got kinda suphocated by XXXL short term demand. Low premiums of now show there's a willingness to sell physical, at least in Europe. I have no idea about premiums on gold in the US. So someone must be flooding the market with physical, be it a Central Bank or Yamashita's grandson, who knows ? I haven't the faintest, but it's a clear signal to me that that someone is pulling our leg.
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
IT, Yes, but the astronomic gold price surge from 2005 to 2011 has also been caused by large ETF-positions. Now that these ETF-positions unfold, it's only normal that the price goes down, notwithstanding the physical trade. You need alot of physical to counter 500 tonnes in a few days, you know.
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
fish, Yes, that's true, selling is always tricky, since there exists no "official" diamond market. But that also counts for vintage cars, paintings, all sorts of art... an yet, they thrive (for the moment), while gold languishes.
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
The author certainly has a point, although I wouldn't go as far as shorting GLD at this level. Downward probability is less after the recent price fall. Buying at the current price doesn't seem profitable either. If one has some spare money and wants to invest in commodities, for the moment high quality diamonds are a better bet imho. But one has to be cautious: my nephew who trades diamonds says that Indian and Chinese copies of genuine diamonds are hard to detect and yet, they are on the market. You need to have kind of a petrographic microscope at your disposal to see the difference. SLV has too much ties with industrial applications to look attractive now that global industrial activity has a temporary flaw. Before the end of next year I don't expect a big change in the price of GLD overall.
A sharp reversal in commodities over the last hour has brought the entire sector into the red. Gold (GLD -0.6%) - looking like it was set to challenge $1,500/oz. an hour ago - is back to $1,452/oz. Silver (SLV -2.3%). WTI crude (USO -1.2%) falls to $92.46. Copper (JJC -1.9%) dives back to $3.18/lb. [View news story]
tsajames, JPM has sold out its gold. But HSBC and Moccatta still have full firing power. I expect them to give it a shot one of these days/weeks. Only when these institutions will be out of firing power (will have sold their ETF-gold holdings), will I expect a higher gold price.
Gold: An Additional 10% Drop [View article]
How about that GS colleague's, JPM's, comment:
"May 08; 3:06 PM With gold bears running rampant, J.P. Morgan’s new forecast for gold (GLD) to finish strong and trade near $1,700 by year-end is noteworthy."
Matthew sure didn't read that one. Else, he wouldn't have mentioned GS as a trustworthy argument.
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
I viewed Inside Job not twice but sixfold. It's absolutely staggering. Should be taught at schools.
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
" I will use my money productively meanwhile."
and how's that ?
Houses ?
Stocks ? (AAPL ?)
Bonds ?
Savings ?
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
Well, I guess they indeed can't. But since they dispose of plentiful resources (capital, propaganda, secrecy, other "convincing" methods I'd rather not name...), the answer to the question "how long" will remain unanswered.
I think something external will eventually purvey the answer, like an electoral revolt. Seen UKIP's latest figures as to that regard ?
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
That's the one million $ question I have been asking myself: how much longer can they play this game of triggering the markets ?
It all comes down to that. The 500 tons of paper gold that have been thrown onto the market may mean alot or nothing: no one knows how much of this JPM ETF is actual physical. If only half of it would be, it would take the physical market quite some time to swallow that.
Russia f.i. on average buys 15 tons a month and can easily be considered as one of the biggest buyers, although it's not very clear how much comes from own mining.
I agree with you that all the economic and political conditions for a higher gold price have remained in place, but Governments are a tough bunch. Rumour has it that they even subsidize miners to get a lower gold price output. Nothing of the kind would surprise me.
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
Although I completely agree with your skeptical approach on Comex and paper gold markets, there's one thing I still don't get: since the gold price is so low, why do some people sell their physical gold ?
Indeed, although there's an ever growing physical demand, the physical supply doesn't seem to be the least hampered, not even at these low prices.
I mean, I wouldn't sell, if I was convinced of the mediocrity of reward. In other words, where does physical keep on coming from ? It can't be all tungsten filled bars, can it ?
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
No problem paying your mortgage with it in Switserland. They made it possible last year. Some things do change, you know.
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
You are right, but still, I'm puzzled by the low level of premiums on gold, traders ask over here: 0.60% on 1kg, 1.43% on 250g and 1.85% on 50g, that ain't much:
http://bit.ly/YiQzf9
A few weeks ago, when the selloff occurred, premiums were way higher: up to 30% higher. The market got kinda suphocated by XXXL short term demand.
Low premiums of now show there's a willingness to sell physical, at least in Europe. I have no idea about premiums on gold in the US.
So someone must be flooding the market with physical, be it a Central Bank or Yamashita's grandson, who knows ? I haven't the faintest, but it's a clear signal to me that that someone is pulling our leg.
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
and I wonder how Stephen got rid of his Enron shares, not to speak of his Lehman Bros participation.
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
Yes, but the astronomic gold price surge from 2005 to 2011 has also been caused by large ETF-positions. Now that these ETF-positions unfold, it's only normal that the price goes down, notwithstanding the physical trade.
You need alot of physical to counter 500 tonnes in a few days, you know.
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
Yes, that's true, selling is always tricky, since there exists no "official" diamond market. But that also counts for vintage cars, paintings, all sorts of art... an yet, they thrive (for the moment), while gold languishes.
Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
Buying at the current price doesn't seem profitable either. If one has some spare money and wants to invest in commodities, for the moment high quality diamonds are a better bet imho. But one has to be cautious: my nephew who trades diamonds says that Indian and Chinese copies of genuine diamonds are hard to detect and yet, they are on the market. You need to have kind of a petrographic microscope at your disposal to see the difference.
SLV has too much ties with industrial applications to look attractive now that global industrial activity has a temporary flaw.
Before the end of next year I don't expect a big change in the price of GLD overall.
Is Gold Useless - Part III [View article]
That is a quite extreme description of a possible deteriorating situation.
A sharp reversal in commodities over the last hour has brought the entire sector into the red. Gold (GLD -0.6%) - looking like it was set to challenge $1,500/oz. an hour ago - is back to $1,452/oz. Silver (SLV -2.3%). WTI crude (USO -1.2%) falls to $92.46. Copper (JJC -1.9%) dives back to $3.18/lb. [View news story]
JPM has sold out its gold. But HSBC and Moccatta still have full firing power. I expect them to give it a shot one of these days/weeks.
Only when these institutions will be out of firing power (will have sold their ETF-gold holdings), will I expect a higher gold price.