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filipo

filipo
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  • The Greatest Danger For Stock Investors Today [View article]
    Tack,
    I sold all my EM ETF's last year with little profits.
    EM's are in a very bad flow and they won't recover anytime soon.
    They all lack what we in the West can't appreciate enough:

    LEGAL SECURITY !!!!!

    Without that you can't create wealth on a long term basis.
    Call it socialism or communism, feudalism or cronyism, what's in a name ? It is the appalling lack of legal security that kills their economies.
    Mar 29 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greatest Danger For Stock Investors Today [View article]
    EK,
    Das Rheinlandmodel has the looks of socialism but it isn't socialism.
    It's more like corporatism and it's very succesful, I can guarantee you that.
    It outplays all industries in every other EU state.
    Mar 29 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greatest Danger For Stock Investors Today [View article]
    Tack,
    "It will take a change in economic outlook, either via corporate reports or geopolitical events, to alter this pattern, I continue to believe"

    ...or the expected great ZIRP unwind ?
    Mar 29 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greatest Danger For Stock Investors Today [View article]
    Tack,
    The more debt, the more inflation a government needs.
    Japan has grown debt so large that it can hardly be serviced anymore without introducing huge inflation.
    That hurts the Japanese feelings, and they scramble for gold, the prelude to what Mauldin calls The Endgame:
    http://on.ft.com/1jkWVof
    Mar 29 07:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only 20 Companies That Matter [View article]
    Where were my thoughts ? Billion, not million !!!!!!!!!!
    Mar 29 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese February Gold Imports Show Strong Chinese Demand: What Chinese Credit Crunch? [View article]
    Tao,
    ""Are you investing accordingly ?"
    I do."

    You mean you're still shorting gold at $1,294/oz through DUST or any other tool ?

    ""You're a brave man."
    Not sure about that one."

    If "yes" was the answer to the first question, maybe "brave" wasn't indeed the right epithet. "Adventurous" might be a more appropriate one.
    Mar 29 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese February Gold Imports Show Strong Chinese Demand: What Chinese Credit Crunch? [View article]
    Tao,
    "I think Mr.Market will get the metal back to its 2008 level ($800), possibly lower "

    You're a brave man.
    Are you investing accordingly ?

    "yearly production (2500 Tons) is tiny compared to accumulated gold held as investment"

    Indeed, it hardly represents 1.7% of overground capacity. However the psychological impact of a strongly decreasing production would be fatal. Imagine the miners going bust one after another. I can already see the headlines: "Barrick Gold applies for Chapter 11" or similar...

    "When the fear trade deflates, this investment gold shows up on the market"
    That is a fair point I can agree upon. Question is whether fear will deflate forever, completely, exhaustively, eradicatedly out of mankind's psyche.
    I fear not.
    Mar 29 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greatest Danger For Stock Investors Today [View article]
    Brian,
    I disagree.
    China's collapse might cause a temporary psychological market downturn, but certainly not a long term bear market. Except for countries like Australia who have large exposure to natural resources.
    The reason is China has a large positive trade balance with the West: they export much more than they import.
    However, it would lead to an implosion of the Yuan, like we witness now regarding the Yen, but we have tools to mend that.
    Mar 29 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only 20 Companies That Matter [View article]
    Jeffrey,
    "but I think that the interest rate environment is doing a better job pushing up asset prices than QE."

    I agree, but suppose QE ends -whenever... - how are they going to suppress interest rates ? With what money ?
    Now the Fed are buying Treasuries each and every month with newly created money that is part of the $55 million QE dowry to suppress the rates.

    But once that QE dowry finished, no more new money, hence no more ZIRP capability.
    Look at Japan, they fight a hell of a battle to suppress their rates and inflation and keep the economy running in the same time.
    You simply can't enjoy the best of two worlds.
    Mar 29 10:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only 20 Companies That Matter [View article]
    Jeffrey,
    "That's pretty funny because I'm so much more comfortable investing in the -EU- right now given the generally more favorable valuations!"

    Right !

    jur,
    "(where cronyism is reaching ridiculous levels)"

    Depends on the EU country you're looking at. With Berlusconi gone, even Italy is going better. And Greece, well Greece has the Trojka supervision.
    Mar 29 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only 20 Companies That Matter [View article]
    Jeffrey,
    "but most of these leaders have very clean balance sheets. "

    Depends what they're invested in.
    As we saw in 2007, valuations and risk management theories can rapidly change.
    Mar 29 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold continues slide [View news story]
    ltsg,
    April 15 next certainly will not give way to a game changing decision.
    The BRIC's are simply not ready to perform whatever they have in mind and the US economy (GDP) is still way too strong to have this shift right now.
    Don't forget that although we only have a 1.9% growth and a "muddling through" economy, that "muddling through" is several times more powerful than that of all the BRIC's combined.
    China, India, Brazil and Russia show relatively good numbers thanks to their exports and domestic multiple expansion. Take those away and nothing lasts.
    It'll take at least another 50 years before the BRIC's will equal the US and Europe on GDP level.
    Mar 29 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese February Gold Imports Show Strong Chinese Demand: What Chinese Credit Crunch? [View article]
    Tao,

    "Same will happen to the $1,300 as well, if you ask me"

    I didn't ask you, but now that you mention, what bottom do you have in mind then ?

    I see $1,300 as depressed versus $1,900, indeed.
    Versus $1,000 the $1,300 is of course not depressed, that is a truism.

    Question however is whether it will go that way down. I doubt it. Miners would protest by defaulting massively.
    Mar 29 04:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: The Declines Won't Stop Here [View article]
    Hi, Aaron Kruger, I was about so answer you something sarcastic until I read your blog -diagonally for the time being.
    Now I show you deep respect and I'll certainly dig into your blog when I have time.
    Mar 29 04:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Strongly Disagree With Goldman's Bearish Gold Call - Buy The GLD [View article]
    Hi Debutant,

    I'll send all I get from ING, JPM, Exane, Kepler, Mirabaud, MS....

    Nice weekend to you too. Cheers !
    Mar 29 04:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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