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filipo

filipo
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  • GLD - The Bottom Is Here [View article]
    Sure, former US Assistent Secretary of the Treasury Dr. Paul Craig Roberts is an idiot:
    http://bit.ly/1C0z8BV
    He hallucinates when he tells us about the Fed's manipulation of the gold market.
    Hey, 1829876587547543, Libor manipulation, wasn't that just a fata morgana in the heads of some people who wanted to save their face ?
    Sep 21 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Low In Silver; Lower Low In Gold Still To Come [View article]
    eppf,
    I'm no expert at all, so I can only rely on what other people who know the subject, tell or write down.
    It sounds silly, but my main source of information is Wiki:
    http://bit.ly/ZqgkY6
    I have the impression that the article gets often updated depending on new finds and new techniques.
    Shale oil exploration is rather new and the variables might hence still be more numerous than with conventional oil rigging.
    Again, a lot depends on the presence of cheap water and sand and these conditions don't account for conventional oil rigging.
    Anyway, I would rather like to see an oil price hovering around $100 than what we witness now. OPEC last week said something similar.
    Sep 21 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD - Terrorism Risk Is Shockingly Absent From Analyses [View article]

    Markos, just send Putin a note: bad boy, why didn't you invade Poland, Slovakia, Estonia, Letuania, Lituania...
    Sep 21 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Lower Lows Will Be Seen Whether You Like It Or Not [View article]
    Avi,
    I'll be watching the gold price spell bound and on the tip of my chair on Tuesday and Wednesday.
    Never since I watched David Copperfield do his tricks with the disappearing pigeons have I been intrigued so much.
    Congrats, you turned my interest in gold from a dull occupation into a thrilling event.
    Sep 21 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    Peter,
    Very wise man, that Dr. Paul Craig Roberts.
    Sep 21 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    Value,
    "You don't think we're inflated on credit now? Check out the statistics on leveraged loans, junk bond financing, etc."

    Yes, but at least now we know they are there. We now exactly at how much student loans are and how many aren't paid back.
    Same with auto loans, mortgages...
    In 2007 toxic assets mostly were packaged in securities and sent to a far off financial institution that put them off balance sheet. That's what made it all so scary in 2008 and following years.
    Investors detest the unknown. The unknown creates panick and eventually systemic collapse.
    Now we know we're indebted and what the numbers are and although they're huge, the fact that all is detailed and charted creates trust and enables leveraging to go on for some more time.
    I therefore think the equity market can add another 15% before levelling out.
    There will be volatility though, but that's purely the responsibility of the Fed (another unknown, although of a lesser extent): when will the first rate increase substantiate ? Every now and then some Fed responsable will utter his opinion as to whether or not start the rate engine going and when, and the market will each time react in a strong way.
    Europe might also spoil the party although with the strong hammering that the euro recently got, I expect its exports to have done well. In that regard, Germany might be a pleasant surprise, sending stocks higher here as well.
    Sep 21 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    Flash,

    You have to see it the other way around.
    Don't think the general public will profit much from any lower oil or gas prices. The Government will.
    Why ?
    Cause when there will be a substantial decrease of the production price -and there will, believe me- the Government will increase taxes on oil/gas to 1/ save the environment 2/ cut their own debts 3/ avoid traffic jams 4/ protect the valuable alternatives like wind, solar, cogeneration...

    You wouldn't blame them, would you ??

    Falling oil production prices would indeed harm the producers, but there still is some considerable profit margin left and the longer they drill, the cheaper it gets for them to produce.
    Sep 21 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD Prices Continue Irrational Behavior; Investors Should Seek More Stable Portfolio Additions [View article]
    charles,
    It's not only a matter of punctuality.
    I'm not even referring to the beheadings. You are right, our societies aren't any less cruel.
    I was mainly referring to the institutionalised bribery system and the corruption.
    It is so tiring, so enterpreneurship killing. And there's absolutely nothing that you can do against it. I'd rather live with ebola, MERS or whatever bird flu than with corruption.
    Sep 21 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Low In Silver; Lower Low In Gold Still To Come [View article]
    charles,
    That only applies when you cross borders.
    No one defends you carrying over €10,000 in your own country if you can prove the whereabouts of the cash and if these whereabouts are clean.
    Of course, what lunatic would take over $10,000 from his legal bank account to go travelling with ?
    Re getting gold out (or in), kilobars seem inappropriate therefore. Carrying smaller entities and lots of travelling is what Indians do when smuggling.

    Other item though that I would like to mention: large multinationals seem to be going targeted for having their cash stashed in fiscal paradises and not paying taxes.
    G20 meeting in Australia has been discussing measures yesterday.
    That could be a game changer !!
    Sep 21 01:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Low In Silver; Lower Low In Gold Still To Come [View article]
    fish,
    Thanks for your comment.

    "Our problems don't hinge on cheap oil"
    I have to say, I disagree on that.
    Cheap oil will be the decisive factor for recovery, if it can be obtained for a long period of time.
    You are right though that in the aftermath of cheap oil economic problems will reappear. And probably no one knows when that aftermath will be.
    But as I said, whenever cheap oil stops, we'll be further down the road, whether that be over 4 or 40 years.
    That consideration might help heal the wounds in the meantime.

    If cheap oil can be obtained, less digital printing of fiat money will be needed.
    Sep 21 01:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Low In Silver; Lower Low In Gold Still To Come [View article]
    gel,
    I found this rather interesting article on Wiki:
    http://bit.ly/ZqgkY6
    It probably won't learn you much what you already didn't know.
    There are however two chapters that caught my attention:
    one is called "oil shale economics"
    the other "environmental considerations".
    There is also the question about EROEI.

    As it seems, there is no easy answer to the question what is the cost. It all depends on the circumstances, but ideally the price seems indeed lower than I thought.
    However there are a number of variables that might be decisive for this technique to stay productive, mainly cheap water and cheap sand.
    Sep 21 01:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Low In Silver; Lower Low In Gold Still To Come [View article]
    fish,

    http://bit.ly/1v4dWqG

    Just curious to see how that is going to develop.
    Quite interesting, n'est-ce pas ?
    Sep 20 05:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Low In Silver; Lower Low In Gold Still To Come [View article]
    gel,
    Fair enough, I can agree on that.
    Remains to be seen what price shale gas drilling will engender, I mean all costs included.
    Have you got an idea ?
    I had the impression a WTI barrel under $93 was already causing nausea with major shale oil producers. Didn't Exxon recently pull back from a number of shale oilfields already ?
    Sep 20 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So Undervalued, They're Golden [View article]
    Mad,
    One doesn't have to be called mad to admit that the Fed (and the Chinese) have strong hands, even if they're crooked.
    They hold the cash.
    Sep 20 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So Undervalued, They're Golden [View article]
    fish,
    Last week Anglo Gold Ashanti decided not to split up its activities outside of SA. Some say on account of Paulson, who is an important shareholder.
    But whatever, point is that AGA does not have the possibility of having another capital increase and will be forced to cut down on unproductive activities, lay off personnel, cut on expenses or a combination of the three.
    If Paulson says no split, he'll also say no hedging, be sure.

    I think most miners have understood in the mean time that hedging is making their own coffins for their own funerals. At the start of the year some did hedge though. Since then I haven't heard of. Have you got evidence ?

    As far as I can see, its mainly Comex the culprit for the low price, that's why I said I saw strong hands (Fed, Chinese) slamming gold.
    The miners ain't no strong hands nowadays. They're shaky hands on shaky legs.
    Sep 20 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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