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  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    Oil and gold are completely different.
    Oil suppliers may bring their production to the market and take note that there are no buyers. Hence the inventories grow and the price plunges.
    Gold suppliers may bring their production/reserves to the market and ascertain that there are always buyers. Hence in the gold market there are no inventories at all. There may be hoards, yes, waiting for the right price to be released, but no "idle" inventories, no "empty houses".

    Since every oz of gold that is being sold is also being bought by someone, there is no reason to believe that the number of bulls/bears increases or decreases except that the number slowly increases with world population.

    For every retail investor who is anxious to see gold fall below $1,000 stands a retail investor not willing to sell below $1,000 unless his name is Khadaffi or Kirchner of course. They were forced to sell by the circumstances.
    One can only say there's a "real bottom" with hindsight. One never is "sure" gold is going to the moon or to the hell. One only can look at the charts and find out that over a large laps of time gold goes up. I remind the reader that in 2000 gold was at $272/oz:
    http://tinyurl.com/plu...
    He who bought gold in 2000 was considered the "smart money". I might agree that the drivers for "smart money" -or "dumb money"- to operate in the market can be considered as sentiment indicators.
    Jan 28, 2016. 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    contrarian,
    "Still far too many long term bulls despite the metal losing 45% in the past 4+ years."

    Interesting..
    So, to you the number of LT bulls should be lower according to the price plunge ?

    Well, maybe the number of LT bulls altogether didn't change at all ?
    Maybe the number of LT bulls never changes cause in the gold market gold does not disappear, it simply shifts from one collector to another hoarder.
    The one who sells his gold necessarily has to sell to someone else.
    The new bull takes the place of the old bull but the numbers of bulls more or less stay the same.

    To put it in a nutshell, aren't there always the same number of gold bulls, except that the global number should be growing steadily together with the growing world population ?
    Jan 27, 2016. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold pops, yields drop after FOMC statement  [View news story]
    FOMC issued a not so clear message.

    They didn't hint at a rate cut and that's bad for equities, hence good for gold. "My goodness do these lunatics not realize how bad the economy has gone ?"

    They didn't explicitly hint at a further rate hike either which left the equity markets in disarray -"my goodness what will become of the USD ?"- and that's good for gold too.

    Conclusion: gold is the big winner.
    Jan 27, 2016. 04:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    At the same time the number of Comex paper gold claims surge to an unprecedented 542 oz versus 1 physically deliverable oz:
    http://tinyurl.com/jve...

    But hey, that shouldn't be a problem since we have Fort Knox.
    Jan 27, 2016. 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold logs best price in three months  [View news story]
    Doug,
    Yes indeed, rates are of the essence to REIT's. As long as rates go down, which is much the case over here, there's no problem for REIT's.
    If I'm not mistaken, the 10Y US T-bond also came down quite a bit and according to many, is bound to lower still further.
    The point is to get out in time. Draghi has promised us further and more QE in March, so we should be safe for a while..
    And, who knows, Yellen might make a U-turn to save what's left of US industry/manufacturing.

    Excellent reviews you collect there, congrats.
    ETF's are indeed the future. Not to complain about, but I find it funny that my country issued a hefty "Speculation-tax" of 33% starting January 1st 2016 on equities but not on ETF's. The politicians who voted the law don't know the existence of such a vehicle. Isn't that rather funny ?
    Jan 26, 2016. 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    contrarian,
    Well, I was having a one month timeframe in mind when I mentioned "up till now". In euros that makes a 5.6% jump. Compared to aluminum, copper and zinc, who went down quite strongly, gold showed some resilience. That disparity struck me as remarkable.
    The month would do just great, but if you care to give the day too, it would make my day :)
    Jan 26, 2016. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold logs best price in three months  [View news story]
    Fair enough, Doug, you're the maestro..
    I was just wondering when these under $1,000 are to be expected.

    Indeed, if fighting deflation is the Fed's goal, then the rate hike wasn't their smartest move.

    I turned to tea, green tea, and completely banned whiskey from my vocabulary. The med said I should take care of my cholesterol or my days will be numbered.
    Still, I get your point. Even tea I don't drink except when it's the right time.

    Any idea when these mythical under $1,000 will be reached ?

    Nice to hear you seem to be doing great trading. Especially re oil you got your call right.
    Me, I'm still long gold and REIT's, against all odds, I know, but last year I made a 19% profit on REIT's yoy. I found that rather pleasing. If I wasn't completely out of cash, I'd venture some GDX(J) now.
    Take care..
    Jan 26, 2016. 03:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    Contrarian,
    You have any month in mind when expecting this $500 low in 2016 ?

    Up till now gold has been quite resilient, you have to admit, even as all the other non-precious metals have been going to the abyss, hence highlighting a deflationary semi-bust that did not affect gold.
    That paradox didn't come as a surprise to me.
    Jan 26, 2016. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold logs best price in three months  [View news story]
    Doug,
    What about your former once to be expected under $1,000/oz prediction ?
    Still expecting that ?
    Jan 26, 2016. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    The last thing I heard about major Tom is he's in the skies with angels...
    Jan 26, 2016. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    contrarian,
    You no longer believe gold will ever see under $1,000/oz again ?
    Jan 26, 2016. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    What will Yellen say tomorrow ?
    Will she suddenly be dovish after the latest rate hike or will she keep on sounding hawkish ?
    If she's a dove, gold will keep on climbing.
    If she sounds like a hawk, gold will keep on climbing as well.
    There's a rally going on with the force of a snowstorm...
    Jan 26, 2016. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    greg,
    Those magic 1,000, heuh ..
    Short covering is responsible for the gold price to go up.
    Oil capital was partly used to take short positions on Comex. I don't think much of that sort of capital will nowadays be easily found in opulence to make these shorting operations again.
    There's a whole industry that's going to get broke.
    Ray Dalio is correct: we need QE4 ... rapidly... and it's going to come ... or the system won't survive.
    Time for Yellen to retire.
    Jan 20, 2016. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Following The U.S. Shale And Saudi Arabian Chess Match, Saudi Arabia Just Yelled 'Checkmate'  [View article]
    GM might face similar fines in Europe over corrupt software allegations as VW in the US:
    http://bit.ly/1nfx734
    Jan 18, 2016. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Following The U.S. Shale And Saudi Arabian Chess Match, Saudi Arabia Just Yelled 'Checkmate'  [View article]
    LWC,
    I agree.
    And here's one more argument in favor of US shale.
    Arab oil is being strongly subsidized by the State. They simply grab out of their reserves to pay for a losing trade.
    What if the US started doing the same ? After all, didn't GM, Ford & other US car makers get the needed funds to survive in 2009 ? Why not start such an action in favor of US shale oil now ?
    It would color the Arab faces green of fear.
    Jan 12, 2016. 12:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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