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filipo

filipo
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  • Gold Bears Are In Control [View article]
    I just went through the latest (FEB) WGC stats and to my astonishment I discovered that Nepal has sold almost all it's gold reserves: some 34 Tonnes.
    They had 36 Tonnes and now they have 4 left.

    The Maoists have been making a mess of the Nepalese economy with rising inflation, economic downturn, poverty, insecurity and uncertainty as consequences.

    So, my guess is that they HAD to sell their reserves to make up for the current account deficits.

    I wonder who bought their gold ? The Chinese ?

    I wonder what the communists in Greece will do, equally sell their gold ?
    Feb 9, 2015. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Gold Losing Steam? [View article]
    ap,
    Even China can't compete with paper gold.
    This won't change before the last oz of gold will have left the West.
    Feb 9, 2015. 03:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bears Are In Control [View article]
    rogro,
    "I like pragmatism"

    So do I, that's why I think a default is written in the stars: most nations default as soon as they can present a primary budget surplus.
    They would be fools not to default:
    http://on.cfr.org/1z1LA1j

    Italy and Spain are less indebted than Greece and they are on the right track: unemployment decreases and their economies grow.
    France however is a different matter: they're still in the phase of denial and have to start the necessary restructuring.

    Concerning Japan, you clearly have no clue of the most recent evolution:
    http://bloom.bg/1z1LA1l

    There is another nation though that I'm more worried about right now: the USA: PMI and ISM numbers of Industrial output (15% of GDP) were disastrous, debt keeps on Climbing (>18T), the strong USD kills exports and the stats on the jobs were too nice to believe.
    For the time being however the US succeeds in attracting capital from all over the world and that saves it's bacon. It comes with a price though.
    Feb 9, 2015. 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bears Are In Control [View article]
    gel,
    "you are not buying because you are waiting for Oil"

    ... as are so many:

    http://bit.ly/1z1Ila8

    strong jobs report being the consequence of a lower oil price...
    Feb 9, 2015. 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bears Are In Control [View article]
    rogro,
    You're right.
    Although they're far left, they can't be that naive: be rude to the Germans and expect them to hand over the money smiling.
    Feb 9, 2015. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Have No Choice But To Own Gold After This Latest McKinsey Chart [View article]
    Within weeks, we'll know what the global FY14 gold production has been.

    Might be around 2,900 Tonnes. The USA, Australia and Canada should be interesting.
    These are the ones who control the price.
    Feb 9, 2015. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bears Are In Control [View article]
    My bet is on a Grexit, simply because it's in the interest of the EZ.
    If ever they want to send a clear signal to the other profligates, it is by letting Greece default go bankrupt and get out of the EZ. A nasty client would thus be removed from the EZ and it would prevent the EZ from having to fill up ever more Greek deficits.
    Whether that'll be in the interest of Greece is another question. I think not: Greece is not Iceland.
    Have you noticed how both countries got indebted ? Iceland took over it's banks debts, exactly like Ireland did, but Greece came into the EZ with an excessively dysfunctional profile: corruption, cronyism, cheating, hardly paying their taxes...
    That distinction deserves a different judgment, from you too.

    If Greece quits the EZ and starts a new Drachme, it will be faced with endless devaluations and political turmoil, exactly like was the case before they joined the EZ.
    John Mauldin is of the same idea:

    http://bit.ly/1z12RHT

    Still, wednesday we'll know more.........
    Feb 9, 2015. 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bears Are In Control [View article]
    fish,
    I agree.
    BTFD is what I do too.
    I reckon cheap oil isn't going to deter mining either.
    Semi-automized monsters like they operate in Australian mines run on half the cost now of what they were running a year ago.
    I keep an eye on oil, therefore.
    If WTI climbs over $60 again, and gold at that point still is at around $1,220, I buy.
    Feb 9, 2015. 11:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Gold Losing Steam? [View article]
    Anybody any idea on the FY14 global mine production figures ?
    Should be out any minute/day/week/month now.
    Feb 9, 2015. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: New Greek Government Announces Opposition To Eldorado's Flagship Gold Mine [View article]
    I'm sure the EZ has since long taken into account a Grexit and subsequently a Greek defaulting on its debt.
    Why else have the German and French banks put all the Greek debt they had on the ECB's balance sheet ? This way, the default is being spread over all the EZ taxpayers.
    It is in the interest of the EZ to let Greece exit and default: a nasty pain in the a** is thus removed from the EZ's bottom and a clear warning is being given to other profligate EZ nations.

    As for Greece, her awaits a long-lasting calvary of Drachme-bound austerity, cleaning up the budget and fight against the oligarchs/corrupt nepotists/cronies.
    The country might slide back to its century-old series of endemic devaluations and political instability. Uncle Vlad might take advantage of this, a nightmare for NATO.
    Feb 5, 2015. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: New Greek Government Announces Opposition To Eldorado's Flagship Gold Mine [View article]
    Doug,
    "I don't think you and I are saying much different."

    I don't put the blame unilaterally on the "EU cronies", as you did.

    But if you can find yourself in my comments above, OK, fine with me.

    Oh, and by the way, I hope Greece will exit the EZ, default on it's debts, the Greek government will crack down domestic corruption and dysfunctionality and after 7-8 years they'll re-enter the EZ, clean as a sheet.
    Feb 5, 2015. 05:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: New Greek Government Announces Opposition To Eldorado's Flagship Gold Mine [View article]
    doug,
    I'm perfectly aware that the EU is all but perfect and that enormous mistakes have been made, should not have been made and will almost be impossible to correct.
    However, to put all the blame on the lenders is a bit stretched. When Greece joined the EZ a large part of their debt wasn't even known. It had been cleverly hidden by Goldman Sucks as off balance sheet items on the demand of Greece or on the offer of GS. A large part of the debts are preferential, meaning they have priority over all the other ones and at this moment are being paid back to....drumroll..... USA banks: $80bn:
    http://for.tn/1BWLV8J
    It was only when the crisis struck in 2009 that suddenly these debts reappeared as Greece was confronted with the harsh reality of having to pay them back anyway, and having to admit this to the EZ.

    So, the myth of the irresponible and avaricious grabby EZ bankers does not make sense. Overall German and French bankers have been operating in a very responsible way. The 2012 haircut of 50% of outstanding Greek debt that these bankers had to take gave good hopes that the Greeks would be capable of getting out of the Woods, like the Irish and the Spanish did.
    Well, the Greeks did not.
    Instead, they started applying tax-evasion. Corruption, cronyism and lack of competence did not abade, on the contrary.

    I give the new Greek government however credit for one thing, actually one and a falf:
    1 / never in the history of failing states has the sale of assets -privatization of Piraeus or sale of a gold-mine- been the LT solution for a defaulting economy; in that sense the halting of the privatisations isn't so bad. ST it aggravates the situation, but LT it'll benefit.
    1 1/2 / Syriza promised to crack down on corruption. Now that is a Heraclaean piece of work, but if anyone should be well positioned to perform this, it's a bunch of young idealistic crazy communists.
    I wish them well, but they'll have to fight GS in the first place:
    http://bit.ly/1BWLV8R

    And Greek cronyism won't disappear so easily either:
    http://bit.ly/1BWLX0q
    Feb 2, 2015. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: New Greek Government Announces Opposition To Eldorado's Flagship Gold Mine [View article]
    doug,
    "the E.U. cronies who have enslaved Greeks with debt"

    No.
    The Greeks have enslaved themselves with debt.
    Or do you consider the Venezuelans more stupid than the Greeks in the way they both endebted themselves ?
    Is Venezuela stupid because it's creditors are the Americans and is Greece bright because it's creditors are EU cronies ?
    Some logic you display there !

    "the blood is running in the streets, time to buy undervalued assets"
    You should have known better.
    If History is any good, you should have studied it.
    What have the Greeks done with the billions of Marshall help that they got from the USA after WWII ?
    They wasted the money on a long lasting cruel and bloody civil war between left and right while the rest of Europe rebuilt itself.
    Knowing the recent history teaches you how people behave.

    Right now every Greek asset valued over zero is an asset to short. It'll make you rich.
    Feb 1, 2015. 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: New Greek Government Announces Opposition To Eldorado's Flagship Gold Mine [View article]
    Vet,
    I agree, that's why I call Greek Syriza a bunch of irresponsible, crazy people.
    Feb 1, 2015. 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Euro Crash [View article]
    SDN,

    I did NOT write "socialism=deficit spending"

    I wrote "What you define as "socialist" in capitalist systems should be labeled "deficit-spending".

    It appears you have difficulties understanding what people write.
    Feb 1, 2015. 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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