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filipo

filipo
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  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    Der,
    As a nice guy you have to acknowledge that a general pardon to the +1$T student loans isn't a bright idea.
    Besides, what's growth in a world full of pep-talk ?
    http://bit.ly/1h3PqoK
    Aug 12, 2015. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    gel,
    I think if she wins it 'll be a disaster and I'm not sure yet which will be the greatest disaster: if she or if the Donald wins.
    She has the one thing that makes politicians dangerous: she follows an ideology. Obama has that too, but as a black he's less radical, I think.

    Is it in the Cayman Islands that you hide ? I might join you, it looks like Paradise to me.
    Aug 12, 2015. 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    rogro,
    Belgium, far worse than P.R.
    Aug 12, 2015. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    gel,
    "We are now in what is known as "volatility season"."

    Like we were in 2008-2015. Nothing new there.
    UNFORTUNATELY, my govt decided to tax profits on equities by some 50% if sold within 6 months. How degenerate they can be..
    I'm seriously thinking of moving to London for good.
    Aug 12, 2015. 03:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    Dog,
    Someone lit a cigarette..
    Aug 12, 2015. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    contrarian,
    "Treasuries represent the asset of choice when investors want security. "
    Maybe not all investors see it that way this time.
    Have you noticed that 10Y yields rose today, after declining a little first. It appears China started selling part of its $3T treasuries' reserve to prop up the Yuan:
    http://bit.ly/1UDgqtD
    If this is what they intend to do the next months or years, it is going to be an interesting exercise for the Fed in September, "to raise or not to raise".

    Anyway, from a monetary, a strategic and an economic viewpoint, if China really wants this devaluation of their Yuan to be under control, they could be forced to sell treasuries from time to time, preventing yields to follow the path that you have in mind.
    Aug 12, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has China Manipulated The Gold Market? [View article]
    Glen,
    Haven't you noticed:
    #1 EUR/USD went up today.
    #2 10Y yields, after falling a bit, rose strongly when the Chinese started selling treasuries.

    ??

    My point is: if China starts using it's +$3T in T-bonds to prop up the Yuan, a downward direction of US debt yields might not come through and a rise of the USD may be just a wet dream.
    Aug 12, 2015. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    Treasuries have had far lower yields in January-February:
    http://bloom.bg/XMPObG

    There's something fishy in the Land of the Shale Oil.

    Meantime the Germans lay on a coach:
    http://bloom.bg/1h2vB1c
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    rogro,
    "presumably we could see a series of significantly lower days here in a row"

    I can see an optimist there. Brace yourself for significantly lower months if not years.
    The good news is, ecology will triumph.
    Aug 12, 2015. 01:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    contrarian,
    "I think you are in for a shock."

    As a warmongering continent we are used to have some turmoil. Nothing special there. Stiff upper lip, a cup of tea and cold showers will do wonders.
    Aug 12, 2015. 01:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    contrarian,
    "we could see a couple of the major U.S. banks fail but that will pale by comparison to what we see in the European banking community."

    Apart from DB who have an indecently large derivative PF, I see no major European banks who could have problems now since the ECB has bailed them out from Greek debt. EZ banks' exposure to EM's is rather limited. Santander, maybe to Latin America..
    Moreover, Basel III has lifted EU banks' reserve requirements a lot.

    US banks on the other hand have large exposure to high yield junk bonds, to EM's and to the $1T not to be repaid student loans, not to mention family credit card leverage and pension liabilities.

    There might be some turmoil in Europe cause of the 2016 British referendum and because of the Spanish elections though. Apart from that, I only see peace and tranquility over here.

    I have no crystal ball re the POG, and I have made bad calls in the past when gold was at $1,300, so I won't question your $600-$700. Everything is possible when oil goes down to $30 or lower.

    BTW, how do you calculate that precise figure $600-700 ? Have you got a gold calculator of some sort ?
    Aug 11, 2015. 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    gel,
    There are other determinants than EM's capital flowing out who determine the strength of USD.
    Like Iran, f.i.
    http://bit.ly/1HEu869

    Kerry asks questions about the USD's role of reference currency and he isn't the only one. As I said before: the strong USD nowadays comes with a more gigantic cost to the American people than under Reagan.

    Be careful what you wish for.
    Aug 11, 2015. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    Contrarian,
    EM's have huge loans priced in USD's, like Argentina.
    That is indeed going to be a party-killer.
    Not sure though that the USD will be the winner. After all, the US are the ones craving for being repaid by those profligate EM's. I foresee a number of defaults among major US banks and hedge funds.
    This time EUR might be the smiling winner ... and gold, of course.
    Aug 11, 2015. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    poor man,
    "but it will take them a long time to get there, probably decade plus."
    I agree, but they say that the Chinese are more patient time than we are :):)

    Anyway, they can fold their plans of making the Yuan part of IMF's SDR's for a while now. If by anything, it's been proven by this devaluation that the CNY isn't ready by no means to take over the white man's burden of reference currency, as I predicted some months ago.
    Aug 11, 2015. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Market: Are You Not Entertained? [View article]
    contrarian,
    I expect the Chinese to give up their consumption-driven economy and to go once again for an export-driven economy like they had prior to 2011. They must have realized that consumption-driven without having a reference currency comes with a huge cost: capital outflows.

    Maybe their decision was inspired by the IMF having postponed the introduction of their Yuan into the SDR-basket till the moon turns green cheese.

    OK, so from now on we have a new situation. Wal-Mart will rejoice: Chinese junk they sell will still be cheeper. Apart from that, US manufacturing -if ever there was any left- will completely vanish, at the cost of US employment. I don't see that as a reason for a stronger USD. And oil will stay low right at a moment when the US had developed their shale industry. Not a reason to be hopeful for the USD either..

    ST, EUR/USD might be a winner: Europeans don't produce oil and they have the advantage of having an underdog, Greece, amidst their currency Union to keep the strength of the euro subdued. No need to devalue over here: the Greeks take charge of chronically beating the euro down. It costs the rest of the EZ a paltry €89bn., peanuts..
    Aug 11, 2015. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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