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filipo

filipo
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  • Gold And GLD Could See Further Losses As The U.S Economy Recovers [View article]
    fish,
    In 2009 prices were very low too, due to falling demand.

    Indeed, oil ships filled to the top sailing the waves and waitin' for higher prices are no novelty.
    It's only that they reappear now and that they had practically gone when prices were at +$100.

    And you are right about politics regulating these things. I remember when Dick Cheney was at the Board of Halliburton, prices as by coincidence went sky high.

    We, the surfs, are Always the ones who get screwed. Ask Doug, he's writing a book on that subject.

    One thing is however a fact: although overall demand still increases, relative demand decreases (less consuming cars, other power generators, green people, people who turn green cause they haven't got the choice...), so the chart of oil demand gets less steep.
    Oct 4 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: I Don't Think We Break Down... Yet [View article]
    charles,

    "Filip I am not a raging market bull."
    That was a joke - apologies.

    "Fracking has completely changed the economic picture."
    Yes, at a price of over $90.
    Under that figure, fracking will change the financial picture, drillers going bust.

    "the last job report beat expectations"
    How come LAbor participation rate is still so low ?

    "The cost of energy is falling....For the moment that's great"
    I would put FOR THE MOMENT in capitals.

    Still, I did not see you answer my main concern: where is the Western fiscal stimulus ? The article you linked me to pointed out that fiscal stimulus was the one and only thing that saved China in 2009.

    An advice: don't rejoice on the strength of the USD. In Australia they have these boomerangs. They have the tendency of coming back and hit the one in the face who throws them. To me it looks like a strong USD is like a boomerang.
    BTW, are you being paid in USD's in Rome ? Just asking, because in that case it must me fun for you now: euromoney for nothing and chicks for free:

    http://bit.ly/1yE3c8d

    I understand your rotfl now.
    Oct 4 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And GLD Could See Further Losses As The U.S Economy Recovers [View article]
    fish,
    "The world is ALWAYS awash in oil, today is no different then when it was $150/bbl"

    I have to disagree.
    A clear signal that there's oil surplus is the abundance of tankers that are being converted into oil storage tanks and that float somewhere on the seas:

    http://on.wsj.com/1n2lhYq

    They form a buffer and while a few years ago there were none, today there are hundreds.

    "Plus I spend less if I don't see it."
    That is very wise. Since I do the shopping my wife often scolds on me when I buy things we don't actually need.

    "No drones here yet, the people would shoot them down here, everyone is armed."
    Lol. Like pigeons...
    Oct 4 06:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does The SPDR Gold Trust ETF Bottom Out? [View article]
    ezee,
    Indeed.. if only more people in the world would be aware as the Swiss are, the world would be different and gold more expensive.
    I think the referendum has a chance.
    Oct 4 02:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does The SPDR Gold Trust ETF Bottom Out? [View article]
    ezee,
    "Totally different from the traders in the West where it moved around the same table."

    Not so different.
    It only takes a bit longer before it gets moving.
    Oct 4 02:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Not In A Bear Market [View article]
    fish,
    The presidential cycle, sounds more probable to me than any Elliott wave cycle I've been hearing of lately.
    I can't say I see much opportunities in the equity market right now right here though: the search for yield has killed them. What's good is too rich, and what's not good is going bust.

    Right now, I'm collecting cash, especially with deflation looming here in Europe.
    On the other hand, if you have too much on your account, they seize it, it's considered as un-christian to have while there are so many have-nots.

    Remember that Cyprus-bail-in ? That'll happen again somewhere else, that's my feeling.
    And I'm still convinced that the eurosystem one day will fall apart. There are too many tensions.

    Conclusion: more than ever, investing is tricky. Have a great weekend !
    Oct 4 01:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: I Don't Think We Break Down... Yet [View article]
    bogi,

    When I ask you "what does paulson ?", you find that too short to understand.

    When I therefore write a more elaborate comment to convey to your dumb brains, you say I'm lonely.

    What is it you want ?
    Oct 4 01:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And GLD Could See Further Losses As The U.S Economy Recovers [View article]
    omo,
    If you change "we" by "why", you get a clear cut sentence, fresh as a baby:
    "Why do people really believe we have a free market or believe there is any integrity in the market."

    And of course at the end you need several "????"
    Oct 4 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And GLD Could See Further Losses As The U.S Economy Recovers [View article]
    fish,
    "While i buy a little gold at a time, I'm thinking oil is the place to be."

    These things (energy sources) are quite cyclical, so you could be right.
    Yet, the world is awash with oil right now, and as long as the Arabs don't cut production (maybe in November at their next OPEC meeting), I see no shortages appearing.

    $100 in walmart all year ? Boy are you frugal !
    Didn't realize amazon was that popular in the US. Do they use these drones to deliver ?
    Over here due to our dense population, people still go to malls and because of traffic jams delivery vans don't make a chance.
    And drones ? Politicians have set up a number of rules: you need to have a pilot license to operate them, they're only allowed in rural areas, which we don't have and their range is limited to 50 meters (!). Told you, this is socialist Paradise.
    Oct 4 12:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And GLD Could See Further Losses As The U.S Economy Recovers [View article]
    fish,
    Yes, that's the burden of being a reference currency. Martin Wolf highlighted that in the FT some years ago. Since then it's gone mainstream.

    Today M. El Erian touched that problem too when he stated that notwithstanding all the clamor on the good jobs report, there will be rough times ahead with lots of volatility.

    And I jus got a report that Euro Disney (70% owned by Walt Disney US) is in dire financial problems. US multinationals will increasingly import other countries' deflation AND low FX !! KKO shareholders, beware !!
    What Charles does not seem to understand is that there are Always two sides on a penny. A strong USD has imo more disadvantages for the US than advantages.
    But to him in Rome, with his strong USD paid paycheck, life must be like money and chicks for free. That might hinder his view.
    Oct 3 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: I Don't Think We Break Down... Yet [View article]
    charles,
    Thanks for the article, it's interesting.
    But you do realize that the main cause of Chinese rebound was fiscal ???

    "We argue that the key
    difference is that China’s stimulus programs are fi…scal in nature, whereas those in Western
    countries are almost purely monetary." (p. 5)

    If I look at our European countries' measures to counter the crisis and fight budget deficits, they ARE monetary, and not fiscal.
    And when I listen to my American friends, I hear nothing but complaints about fiscal tightening.

    So, how come there suddenly should be economic growth then in the West and more particularly in the US, if it's specifically that lacuna that the authors are pointing at ?
    How come that a shady jobs report creates such optimism ?
    How come that all this changes a cautious man like Charles Hinton into a raving stock market bull if it wasn't monetary policy but fiscal easing that he awaited for?

    I mean, the argument that you should be getting from this highly interesting article is quite opposite from what you say.
    Oct 3 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And GLD Could See Further Losses As The U.S Economy Recovers [View article]
    fish,
    "How can we expect them to be able to create policies to help provide jobs here in the U.S."

    Well, at least these folks have got a job:

    http://bit.ly/1rITb3v
    Oct 3 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And GLD Could See Further Losses As The U.S Economy Recovers [View article]
    charles,
    "In fact todays report was goldilocks..."
    Sure, if you forget for a moment that labor participation rate.

    In fact what the Fed is doing, is just solve the unemployment problem by simply ignoring it through creative statistics.
    I've Always said the US unemployment problem is not an economic problem, it's a social problem.
    I never dreamed they would take my words so literally so fast.
    Yellen told those on unemployment they should buildup assets to get out of poverty.
    Well, there you have it: best thing to do is invest thy hard earned dollars in Alibaba.

    "The stock market seems to like it."
    These chickens like everything as long as it tells them the rozy part of the story.
    Oct 3 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Not In A Bear Market [View article]
    seek,
    "big cap stocks beat inflation and beat gold."

    Most big cap stocks didn't even make it through Weimar.
    Only a handful survived.
    You had to be Lucky stockpicking or have the right relations.
    Oct 3 03:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Not In A Bear Market [View article]
    fish,
    Yes, labor participation rate dropped to 62.7%.
    We're back in 1978.
    And the quality of those jobs added seems to be shaddy too.
    But who cares, the PPT has done its job and equity markets cheer.
    Oct 3 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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