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filipo

filipo
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  • Crude oil headed lower again, but gold surges [View news story]
    fish,
    "A year and a half to starve them, then the slowing of Saudi oversupply another year and a half or so."

    It strikes me you didn't mention shale oil.
    How long will it take to starve THEM ?
    Or are they immortal ?

    Right now, it's only Venezuela who's dead and buried, but with time to come there will be other victims.

    Something odd tells me oil prices won't stay low that long. Mr. Hall is of the same opinion:
    http://bloom.bg/1yzuRl9

    There are other variables now at play than in 1991. In theory, yes, when oil plunges, gold follows. But in view what's going on in Japan, Greece, China, US, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Zimbabwe, Luxemburg, Argentina, Brazil, Australia, Thailand, HongKong, Vietnam, Lybia, Egypt, Sierra Leone.... the gold price might still rise for a while.

    Oil is not the only problem that Mr. Putin faces. Corruption, lack of effciency in his whole economy, bureaucracy... are much bigger problems and they will stick, even if oil goes up again.
    Still, he's a goldlover and that's why I'm interested in what he does.
    Just curious to see the Dec worldgoldcouncil list of CB reserves to know how much gold he will have added in Nov. Should be out in a few days.
    Dec 10, 2014. 03:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Doug,
    "I'm usually exhausted at the end of the day"

    I share your feelings. There simply is too much to read & follow up.

    I'm longing for the good old compounding days of pre-2008.

    This afternoon I bought a bank equity that I had sold yesterday and I put a limit to resell it tomorrow. These times are crazy and indeed very tiring.

    Take care and good luck with the books.
    Dec 9, 2014. 03:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Doug,
    Yes, you're probably right concerning the USD-gold relationship.

    It's something that I keep on undervaluating and I shouldn't.
    However, with oil going south, the USD might get hurt too.

    This is all so difficult to figure out: cheap energy is a godsent to US manufacture, but it's a rod for US energy industry. So which one of the two will be most relevant to the USD and to US GDP.
    Hard to tell now especially when no bottom in oil has been formed.

    There is still the Greek story. If it makes the euro to go belly up, it could have a negative effect on the US economy as well. The virus could spread.

    I therefore expect we had the bottom at $1,139. Curiously enough that was exactly when Avi called for and he warned Gelstretch he could wait eternally for a lower low to come.
    It's all rather confusing, but you certainly did the right thing today to sell at $1,238. Taking profit is always a safe bet.
    Dec 9, 2014. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    net,
    "a falling yen makes investment in Japan MORE attractive,"

    Sure, where are the investments ?

    http://bit.ly/1wXIrDe
    Dec 9, 2014. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Doug,
    You see the results of this massive round of QE in Japan ?
    They hoped for inflation.
    They get deflation:
    http://bit.ly/1wXIrDe
    Dec 9, 2014. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Bottom in oil likely below $770.
    That would have been correct.
    Dec 9, 2014. 02:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Give Thanks For Gold Being On Sale [View article]
    gel,
    On a fundamental basis -extreme lack of physical supply in the West- I see gold go up to $1,400 before year's end.
    I know that prediction is rather rash, but add Greek and Japanese conditions to this, and you got a scenario for a perfect storm.
    Greek PM just resigned with his cabinet and new elections due DE 17 are a big unknown. There is a chance that leftwing anti-euro party wins and that Greece pulls out of eurozone. This could lead to the end of the euro in the shape we know it.
    Japanese buy physical like hell, faced as they are with a falling JPY and rising prices.
    Dec 9, 2014. 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Doug,
    I'm not convinced that deflation is bad for gold.
    We sure are headed for a deflationary scenario, no question about that. The reasons you mention are indeed manyfold and make sense.
    However, if I take a look at the events that are unfolding in Greece, apart from them being hyperdeflationary, they are also a very strong signal to the gold buy-side.
    We may have different opinions on that subject.
    I'm long gold like hell. With no stops.
    Dec 9, 2014. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude oil headed lower again, but gold surges [View news story]
    Sentiment seems to be swapping heavily :)

    What would GS/JPM think of this rebound.

    Gold was supposed to plunge to $800 they told us.

    Gold was tied to oil, they said.

    Me think some shorters are getting exceedingly scared. Western physical shortage pushes them to unwind their positions.
    Dec 9, 2014. 10:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    hobart,
    "Why hasn't it fallen further as Wagner has posited? "

    Cause Wagner thinks according to his bias.
    That's not very smart if you want to predict gold.
    Dec 9, 2014. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds and dollar higher, gold slumps after strong jobs report [View news story]
    fish,
    But, but, but the jobs data were so good ? :):):
    I'm afraid you are right, fish, society crumbles. Right now, I face this incredible standstill in my own country: unions are on strike and block transportation system, airports, buses, trains... even if they only represent 25% of the working population.

    http://bit.ly/1A8vfct
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing PMI Deflation Shock For SPDR Gold Trust ETF [View article]
    fish,
    "Now we fight ISiS, not sure who they are,"

    In many ways Islam is not a monolithe, it's a transformer:
    http://bit.ly/1yXit12
    You think they are what you see, but they're not or they change their shape. The taliban in Afghanistan, Sunnis, Shiites, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jemen, Lybia, Saudi, Pakistan, Quwait, Bangladesh, Philipines, Al-Qaeda, Isis... so many fractions. It's naive to think they're all alike and that they'll all react in the same way or that they'll consistently be of the same opinion. They don't. In that regard they very much look like our 100 years war we had in the Middle Ages. Fractions and alliances changed all the time.

    "Even if you don't trust his methods,"
    I came to appreciate his writings, you know. He's very clever and he opened a completely new world to me: EW.
    Dec 6, 2014. 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Give Thanks For Gold Being On Sale [View article]
    Saw,
    Daniella is awesome.
    Love her. She's a natural talent.
    Can't get enough of her looks, which sometimes distracts me from what the people she talks to, say.
    Thanks for the advice. I'll look it up.
    Dec 6, 2014. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing PMI Deflation Shock For SPDR Gold Trust ETF [View article]
    Fish,
    "plus China has overtaken or will overtake us as having the largest GDP. "

    Yes, I read that article. The IMF apparently has written a report saying this. I don't know whether it's GDP PPP or nominal.
    If it's PPP, they still have a long way to go before equalling the US, which has it's importance when they come on the international markets.
    Still, it's only a matter of time before they are equal.
    Normally that should result in a paradigm shift regarding the status of the USD as the reference currency. Otherwise FX tensions will keep on increasing.
    Have a nice weekend !
    Dec 6, 2014. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Give Thanks For Gold Being On Sale [View article]
    Ninja,
    "almost all that have made calls say it's going higher except Ben Lockhart."
    Gary Wagner from Hawaï says it's going to go lower next week.
    Low oil and high USD should be the culprits from a fundamental point of view.
    Imo he has a point. Especially low oil could be a drag.
    Take care.
    Dec 6, 2014. 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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