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filipo

filipo
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  • GLD: More Whipsaw, Or Crash Ahead? [View article]
    Stay thirsty, my friends.. for gains on gold trading, of course
    Jul 22, 2014. 03:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: More Whipsaw, Or Crash Ahead? [View article]
    Waw, Dog, thanks for the link.
    When is it that Avi comes in the show ?
    Jul 20, 2014. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: More Whipsaw, Or Crash Ahead? [View article]
    Of course, if you think of the gold price as a broadband with a low at $1250 and a high at $1350, the probability that gold goes down when the price is at $1349 is higher than when it's at $1251, and vice versa gold can more likely go up when the price is at $1251 than when it's at $1349.
    However, external events can always disrupt such a broadband.
    That's why I remain sceptical.
    Jul 20, 2014. 12:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: More Whipsaw, Or Crash Ahead? [View article]
    I know a few Avi-adepts (Ninja-Trader, gelstretch, Quantum Profit) who are going to disagree with this article because they are persuaded that (sometimes) correlation means causation.
    Like they are persuaded that a rocket going through the White House front door would cause the gold price to go up.
    This article by Avi is going to disappoint them.
    Jul 20, 2014. 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will It Take For Me To Believe Metals Have Bottomed? [View article]
    QP,

    "Bullish and bearish Sentiment on gold controls the movement of gold "

    "EW does it's best to analyze it and make projections based on probabilities."

    I can agree with that although I still have my doubts about EW: at what point for instance do you start counting the waves ?

    Besides, that's not exactly what Avi has in mind. To him, all human behaviour is being determined by fixed patterns, call it "waves" and there's not much we can do about it.

    "Investors make assumptions on how the market will react to an event based on past outcomes,"

    That all sounds very rational, but recent events in Ukraine for instance make clear that these assumptions based on past outcomes, even if they're probability proven, don't always play out the way we expect. Let's call them the exceptions to the rule. But nowadays it appears that these exceptions tend to become the rule.

    I sincerely hope that we won't face too much exceptions anymore. I would gladly give up my paper gains for the lives of the people that died in this tragical MH17 incident. I knew 1 Dutch person that was on that plane.
    Jul 20, 2014. 05:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problems With Gold [View article]
    We're retired..
    Jul 20, 2014. 03:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will It Take For Me To Believe Metals Have Bottomed? [View article]
    QP,

    "Elliott Wave as it doesn't control the gold market it just analyzes it and makes a projection which may be 100 % correct or may be wrong."

    You mean 100 % wrong ?

    If EW doesn't control the market, what does then ?
    Fundamental reasons ? Like a plane shot down, a new war breaking out, a major Portuguese Bank going belly up, bad Q2 corporate figures ?

    Just asking, cause if that's what you agree with, there is not so much water between the two of us.
    Jul 20, 2014. 03:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will It Take For Me To Believe Metals Have Bottomed? [View article]
    Ninja,

    "A rocket through the front door of the White House might cause more than a ripple on a gold price graph."

    Maybe someone should try this out as an experiment before describing it as a new Law on Avi's Wikipedia.
    Anyway, there seems to be a growing discontent about Elliott Waves as the sole and only determining factor of the gold price evolution.
    I can only applaud this since I'm a strong adept of the "there must be fundamental reasons" theory.
    All that I recently said about EW was slightly ironizingly meant. Maybe you missed that.
    Jul 20, 2014. 03:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problems With Gold [View article]
    Before investing all your money in stocks, you might perhaps consider reading this:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 19, 2014. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problems With Gold [View article]
    Quite, so let's invest all our money in stocks then.
    Any idea which stocks ?
    Jul 19, 2014. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will It Take For Me To Believe Metals Have Bottomed? [View article]
    gel,

    "certainly a rocket entering through the front door of your house will enhance an emotional change in sentiment."

    It will certainly change the outlook of my house, making it look more interesting.
    However, that is not what Avi has been deducing from his Elliott Waves. He repeatedly said that historical events such as the skirmish in Iraq, the frictions in Ukraine or the scuffle in Gaza, don't affect the gold price at all.
    Now that you mention the word "correlation", I have to point out to you that he explicitly said there not only was no causation, but even not a correlation between these events and the gold price.
    Hence, a rocket entering through the front door of my house, or through anybody's, would certainly not cause a ripple in the graph of the gold price, according to Avi.
    What does affect the gold price - or, by extension the silver price - is "sentiment" which he - and presumably he alone - can deduce from reading the Elliott Waves: 3 waves mean up or down and 5 waves mean certainly down but maybe also a little bit up, at least until the Final Plunge.
    I may be oversimplifying the relevance of the number of waves though, I'm no EW expert despite Avi's assiduous attemps to instruct me.
    Jul 19, 2014. 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problems With Gold [View article]
    Well, if gold is such a poor investment in both inflationary and deflationary times, actually in all times, why then waste so much articles on gold ?
    Why not simply ignore it and let the Chinese and Indians buy all our gold ? After all, we would get richer, having more USD's at hand and the Chinese and Indians would have a commodity that would make them poor(er), who cares ?
    I don't see the need of adding article after article urging our citizens to depart of their gold since that's exactly what they're doing already and the Asians adding by the tonnes.
    I don't understand the fixation of people like Robert Signorella who keep on hammering on how dreadful an investment gold is. They'd better write something useful about AAPL f.i.
    Jul 19, 2014. 12:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will It Take For Me To Believe Metals Have Bottomed? [View article]
    QP,

    "Thursday when gold went up with Ukraine airplane rocket disaster and Israel rockets,"

    I thought we all agreed that from now on only sentiment would be called the driving force of the gold price, not fundamentals.
    Shame on you, bad pupil.
    Jul 19, 2014. 06:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Finally Time To Buy Gold? [View article]
    Comex still represents 85% of daily turnover:
    http://bit.ly/WiTFCr-
    Shanghai only starts.
    Jul 18, 2014. 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will It Take For Me To Believe Metals Have Bottomed? [View article]
    Maybe the world got used to the idea that from time to time planes have to be shot down..
    Jul 18, 2014. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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