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filipo

filipo
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  • Will Iraq Make Gold Soar? [View article]
    John,
    Yes, someone is losing control.....
    Jun 19, 2014. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Iraq Make Gold Soar? [View article]
    Yeah, I've been sick too, from that Yellen woman who says food and gas inflation is only noise.
    Jun 19, 2014. 12:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Iraq Make Gold Soar? [View article]
    QP,
    And if it's not Iraq that will make gold soar, perhaps this will:

    http://bit.ly/1pggrTZ
    Jun 18, 2014. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Iraq Make Gold Soar? [View article]
    QP,
    Well, FOMC always brings the best of the PM bashing world: lots of short positions, lots of PM negative news, negative articles.
    A FOMC meeting also bears a self-supporting prophecy: people expect the Fed to take some action against PM's and a FOMC meeting is certainly a good occasion. The eyes of the world are once again centered at the Fed, hence the importance of stressing the strength of the USD and the danger of investing in PM's.
    The initiative of slaying the PM prices starts with the Fed. It's called psychological warfare and it usually comes together with a FOMC meeting or with an event that should normally be beneficient to the gold price. Shortly after the Fed takes the initiative, the ECB follows and so follow the bullion banks and the savvy investors who became accustomed to this tradition. It is as predictable as hurricane season.
    But of course these PM market interventions come with a price: they implicate going short against a long market which at expiration always turns out to be negative for the shorters since the East keeps on buying the physical stuff massively. It's mainly the tax payer who pays -so who cares ?- and the CB official reserves get depleted -so who cares once again ?

    Because of the hefty cost these interventions can't go on forever. So after awhile, mainly the week after the FOMC meeting, they stop and PM prices resume their way up.
    Jun 17, 2014. 06:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Iraq Make Gold Soar? [View article]
    As I said: FOMC explains it all. The metals went down yesterday afternoon just as I predicted. The FOMC meeting is scheduled June 18.
    After that, the metals will rise again.
    Jun 17, 2014. 03:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Iraq Make Gold Soar? [View article]
    "As for your argument that 5000 is just as likely as 1000 tomorrow . . WOW . . this clearly shows your biased perspective, and there is no arguing with someone like you on this."

    So, you had tomorrow in mind ?

    I'm sorry, you had to specify that. Never would I have written what I wrote if I had known you meant "tomorrow".

    What I meant was, that gold will go to 5000 somewhere in the future.

    So, according to you, gold will hit 1000 tomorrow June 17 ? I find that a rather challenging prediction. I bet it won't, but then I guess there is no arguing with you on that ? You stick to your gold at 1000 for tomorrow.
    We'll see how that turns out.
    Jun 16, 2014. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Iraq Make Gold Soar? [View article]
    Avi,
    "Is purely math."

    It has never been proven that there exists an irrefutable link between EW and the future.

    "second, the potential still exists that we can drop below 1000"
    Sure, and that same potential says that we go to 5000 one day. I see no reason why there should be more potential in a 1000 level than in a 5000 level.

    So, that's not the question. The question is will that potential of 1000 indeed be redeemed and secondly when will it be redeemed ? It's like me saying I have the potential of becoming an excellent piano player, while I don't play a note. Potentially, everything is possible and by saying so, one in fact says nothing.

    "Third, yes, I sold a vacation property I owed in early 2007 "

    Quite confusing: you "owed" or you "owned" ?

    "of my gold when we went over 1900 - and am starting to rebuild my position"

    So you are buying gold now ? Then why don't you wait for the new lows to buy then since you are convinced there will be new lows:

    "Ultimately, the point I am making is that I do not believe that the bottom to the metals has been seen."

    I mean, If I would be the mathematical wizzkid that you pretend to be, and I would be able to pinpoint with certainty the exact bottom the metals will reach, I would wait until my predictions will have been realized before buying. It would save me some money.
    Jun 16, 2014. 11:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Iraq Make Gold Soar? [View article]
    Avi,
    I don't question your method. It's like with religion: everyone should choose the religion he/she prefers.
    And there is more between sky and earth than humankind can explain. Intuition based on patterns of Elliott Wave to predict the future can indeed sound very exotic but seldom accurate.

    Can you refer to a passage where I said gold would be 2500 now ?
    I suspect not, because I never said such a thing.

    You Sir, on the other hand, said, I quote:
    "And, maybe you may consider me crazy for thinking that it is possible to see gold below $1,000, but I am telling you that it is clearly within the realm of probability."
    No need to rub you that in, but, after such a mistake, I'd be a bit more humble if I were you.

    I indeed kept a long position at 1900, but then I suppose not everyone sold his real estate properties at the hight of the mortgage bubble in 2006 either ? Were you out of yours in 2006 ?

    And in the meantime I have been buying again at under 1200 level.
    Jun 16, 2014. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Iraq Make Gold Soar? [View article]
    David,
    "Add to that the huge national debt and a continuing tradition of trade deficits that dictates what the Fed and the federal government can and cannot do, and you've got a recipe that dictates a lower dollar, and consequently a higher price for gold. There is nothing more indelibly or unambiguously written on this nation's financial future than the eventual rise in the price of gold."

    Ah, but that's not the way Avi considers things. He looks at his Elliott Waves, disregarding any fundamental argument, and makes his predictions accordingly, mostly downwards, and if not downwards it can also be upwards, but that would be a disruptive improbability.

    "This just gets more and more ridiculous for those of us who actually use our minds."
    he says...

    In fact, he never uses his mind himself, only his senses. What he reads in the waves is his gospel.
    Jun 16, 2014. 06:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Iraq Make Gold Soar? [View article]
    My EW analysis tells me that at this point GLD might go down or might go up still further. We're at a Crossroads after a nice head-and-shoulders formation has been forming in May.
    What is more important though is that June 18 there is this FOMC-meeting and always when FOMC meets, a vast number of articles trying to bash the gold price appear. In that regard Avi's article is very prototypical. You can almost make a sure prediction on that: FOMC-meeting and Avi (Cox & alii) reappear from their trenches.
    Jun 16, 2014. 03:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Iraq Make Gold Soar? [View article]
    FOMC-meeting June 18 next.
    Jun 15, 2014. 05:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Why Shouldn't It Drop Further? [View article]
    Kir,
    Indeed, there are sufficient reasons to write an article on that.
    Jun 12, 2014. 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Why Shouldn't It Drop Further? [View article]
    gel,
    I agree. This is the age of the great complacency. Stocks go up, so everyone looks happy and nobody takes into account that the underlying factors aren't so rozy.
    EZ labor markets -Germany excepted- are in shambles and deteriorating.
    US foreign policy has been a disaster lately, in Syria, Ukraine and -as it appears now- in Iraq.
    Russia and China have been alienated, a pity.
    Crude goes up again and that affects the whole economy.
    I fear for the near future.
    Jun 12, 2014. 03:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Why Shouldn't It Drop Further? [View article]
    gel,
    What I meant is, there is a statistical constant tendency, everytime the FOMC meets, gold, as by magic, goes down. That happens the day before or the very same day.
    The same phenomenon can be witnessed whenever the ECB is about to deliver some wisecracks.
    To prepare the general public to these smackdowns and make the operation cheaper, a number of authors are usually unleashed who try to talk gold down.
    I am very sceptical as to the strength of the labor market Richard Cox seems to beleive in:
    http://bit.ly/SPFSRK
    So, yes, indeed, the Fed and all those who have interests in making us beleive everything is just fine, are in denial.
    Jun 12, 2014. 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Why Shouldn't It Drop Further? [View article]
    The FOMC has a meeting on June 18. That tells a lot.
    Jun 11, 2014. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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