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filipo

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  • Gold miner ETF sinks to five-year low, gold closes at lowest since July [View news story]
    Brian,
    Here's the explanation:
    http://bit.ly/1asU5oR
    Dec 3 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver And Gold: Another Rally Before Lower Lows? [View article]
    david,
    For the moment I ran out of ammo. I let others do the stacking.
    Dec 3 12:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold miner ETF sinks to five-year low, gold closes at lowest since July [View news story]
    Hummer,
    Sounds like shorting gold became a patriotic game: "let them buy our gold, we don't need it anymore........"
    Dec 3 12:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver And Gold: Another Rally Before Lower Lows? [View article]
    david,
    I never was silver bullish since deleveraging started (2008).
    Fundamentally, I think that due to global deleveraging, austerity, ZIRP and currency debasing policies, the global industry is going to suffer.
    Of course there will be regional and/or sectorial exceptions, but on average, global industry is going to suffer. The most we can expect is a muddling through global industry. The slacking copper price and slacking minerals prices are proof of that. Hence direction south the AUD goes.
    Silver is an important component of the global industry. It is only logical that the silver price plunges when less silver is needed.
    Due to the fact that you need to have large quantities of silver to equal relatively little money, I don't regard silver as a monetary metal nowadays. So I don't expect relief for the silver price from that perspective either.
    That is not the case with gold. Gold is perfectly suitable and accordingly still widely perceived as a monetary metal and the fact that it's price goes down along with the silver price has nothing to do with the slacking industry but with the shorting operations of one Central Bank (Fed).
    Unlike the similar operations of the Bank of England under Gordon Brown who threw in the towel after 1 year, I see the Fed capable of shorting the gold price for another 2 years (that'll be the fourth year by then). By then its reserves will be exhausted, depending on how the rest of the world keeps on reacting of course.
    In the long run I therefore consider your swapping silver for gold as a rational and intelligent move that is going to bring you profit overtime.
    Dec 2 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan core CPI accelerates in-line with expectations [View news story]
    Deep,
    Good luck with your Bonds.
    Soon they'll pay you a negative yield.
    At that moment, I guess you'll still stubbornly stick to your idea that they do pay a coupon, be it a negative one.
    At that moment I'll be lucky with my gold that, thanks to inflation, I'll be able to sell in small parts, with a profit, month after month, during 20 odd years.
    But apparently trying to explain you that in a coherent way is a waste of time.
    And good luck with your AMZ equities too. You must have a special relationship with that company that you succeed in extracting dividends from it.
    Dec 2 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Waiting For Bitcoin To Get Boring [View article]
    Moon,
    Indeed, when I hear of extraordinary raising bitcoin prices, I immediately think of asset bubbles caused by monetary mismanagement in fiat currencies like USD, Euro...
    The phenomenal raise in bitcoin price (and Art sales at Sotheby's) has everything to do with too much fiat money lingering around.
    To me bitcoin is just a hype that is going to disappear overtime when other similarly virtual types of coins (likecoin, monkeycoin, bearcoin, beercoin, bullcoin, citycoin, isiscoin...) will be available.
    Dec 2 07:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan core CPI accelerates in-line with expectations [View news story]
    Deep,
    "Nearly 6000 comments...at least 20% of them are "pro-gold" so that's over 1000 comments."
    Then why this sudden throwing in of the towel ?

    "What one would have done since 1960 doesn't matter as it is 2013 and a Japanese person needs to worry about today and tomorrow."
    That was just an example to show you that there is constant inflation and that what counts for the past also counts for now. I don't understand why you keep on deliberately misunderstanding the obvious. Or do you truly beleive that This Time is Different ?

    "Gold is NOT a safe investment for older people as it is WAY too volatile."
    Do you know of an alternative that is less volatile ? Housing ? CDO's ? Overvalued equities, REIT's, Bonds ? You name it.

    "Gold is HIGHLY volatile on a daily price basis in dollars."
    I don't know on what planet you live, but over here the days that the gold price changes more than 1% are exceedingly exceptional. The days that my shares go up or down by more than 2% are numerous. Daily Gold price volatility is a perception, no reality, compared to other asset classes.

    "As an example, the financial crisis simply wasn't as bad for a person in Texas or Arkansas (two places where there was never a real estate bubble) whose wealth was 60% bonds, 15% precious metals and 25% blue chips. "
    The financial crisis was completely non-existant for anyone who in 2008 was 100% in bonds, apart from the fact that he/she didn't get any dividends worth mentioning (anyway lower than inflation). And anyone who was 100% in gold made nice profits (higher than inflation).
    What do you want to prove with that ? That now again one should be invested in 60% bonds, 15% PM's and 25% blue chips ? Or that one should flee to Texas or Arkansas to be shielded from the next crisis ? I don't get your point. With bond rates in nearly negative territory, how can you advocate bonds now ? And US blue chips are way too overvalued to buy now. I agree though with PM's, but would correct it to 50%.

    "Why would an elderly Japanese person put a substantial chunk of their worth in this volatile, non-dividend paying asset?"
    Because not other asset class is less volatile and pays more dividends to him (a savings account ? JGB's ?) than gold, except Japanese blue chips.

    But if you are convinced that that doesn't make any sense, be my guest.
    Dec 2 03:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan core CPI accelerates in-line with expectations [View news story]
    Deep,
    "Gold, which pays no dividend, is not a safe investment for older people who need current income"

    That sounds like an ideology, not like a rational argument.

    I gave you my rational argument (our Japanese friend buys 1,000 pieces of 1 oz and every month after that sells one).
    If you look at the price of gold from, let's say 1960 to now, it hasn't decreased, has it ?
    If I would have bought 2,000 oz in 1960 (at $35.27) and sold 1 oz every single month since then, I would have not only preserved my purchasing power, but made profit moreover.
    http://bit.ly/wYunOO
    So how can you say then that gold is not a safe investment ?

    "Gold is a speculation if the purpose is a trade."
    Every asset that is being bought and sold is a speculation: have you forgotten the US housing market ? The 2008 stock market ? Your memories must be incredibly short.

    "I am a big gold person as my comment history would suggest..."
    Referring to your latest comments, I very much doubt that.

    "I'd advise that they sell JGBs and buy U.S. and European blue chips that pay a safe and steady dividend."
    Right now I advice them to buy Japanese blue chips because these are the ones that are going to profit from the Japanese export boom. US en European blue chips (carmakers, electronics, machinery, you name it) are the ones that are going to be hit by fierce Japanese competition, unless.... the USD and the euro get devalued too overtime in the same degree as the Yen is being devalued.
    Besides, I don't know the situation for small investors in Japan. It could be that taxes on buying and selling foreign equities and on getting dividends paid are high. These kind of taxes are exceedingly high in Europe versus US, Japanese.... equities.
    Dec 1 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan core CPI accelerates in-line with expectations [View news story]
    Deep,
    "But not members of the huge older generations who can't eat without coupon payments or dividend income."
    The price of gold is bound to go up. The reasons are: World population increases; China buys like hell; the Yen gets devalued at 200 miles/h....
    The US Fed can temporarily put a halt on the gold price increase (2-3 years ?) till their own reserves are exhausted, but not longer.
    If a member of the Japanese older generation buys gold in pieces of 1 oz -say for example 1,000 pieces of 1 oz- now in one time and eventually sells them one after the other -1 each month- starting 3 years later, he'll have a nice dividend on his investment during 1,000 months. If he's 73 now, that'll bring him 19 years later. By that time he'll be statistically dead.
    Did you notice that the gold price in Yen has NOT plummeted recently ?
    http://bit.ly/1cKcMHE
    Have you ever wondered why the gold price in Yen has not plummeted ?
    The answer is: because of the depreciation of the Yen.
    And this is only the beginning.
    Thanks to the coming devaluation of all fiat currencies, the gold price is bound to rise, expressed in every weak fiat currency.
    What happens now to the yen, will happen to the USD, the euro...

    Beware of REITs, they're overvalued and lots of companies that are involved in REITS are highly leveraged.
    I don't know enough of any particular Master Limited Partnerships to say something sensible about them. Anyway, any investment Japanese people make in foreign asset classes bears high taxes due to protectionism, so an MLP might not turn out to be such a great investment for them.
    Again, there are enough Japanese blue chips (Sony to name but one) that are going to profit from booming Japanese exports. Japanese Members of the older generation should invest in those and in gold.
    Dec 1 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver And Gold: Another Rally Before Lower Lows? [View article]
    Trim,
    Fine with me.
    Dec 1 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan core CPI accelerates in-line with expectations [View news story]
    Deep,
    "How is devaluing the yen a positive for tens of millions of Japanese that depend on fixed income investments to provide current income?"
    It will be extremely awful for them, desastrous !
    Therefore I recommend them to invest their money in gold and equities.

    "If they were all car and electronics executives then it would be all good."
    No, not even they will profit from the coming devaluation of the Yen. Their salaries will stay subdued.
    Only shareholders will profit.
    Dec 1 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan core CPI accelerates in-line with expectations [View news story]
    Deep,
    "The only lever left is the foreign exchange holdings (including U.S. bonds)."
    I don't agree. Devaluation of the Yen will prove to be a very strong lever.

    "As the Japanese get older they will have less and less disposable yen to pay for everyday things."
    There is always an inflexion point.

    "There is no hope for that country."
    If such is your beleif, so be it. I did my best to convince you of the contrary with rational erguments. If you dismiss those, that's your responsability and if you make your investments accordingly, I pity you.

    Having said that, the row over the islands between China and Japan causes me more concern. There's another reason to be invested in gold now. China is the new expansionist nation in the region. Economic expansion always comes with territorial expansion. I expect more of Chinese territorial expansionism in the coming years.
    Dec 1 04:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver And Gold: Another Rally Before Lower Lows? [View article]
    "At this time, I have to be honest in that I am struggling to present you with a fundamental argument for buying or selling silver and gold."

    Indeed, Mr. Gilburt never gives any fundamental arguments.
    Dec 1 04:01 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan core CPI accelerates in-line with expectations [View news story]
    Deep,
    "He would have been 49 years old when his stock market crashed and he would have most likely lost 50% of his net worth from investing from 1969 -1989."
    Knowing that his Government would be pushing for ZIRP and higher debts the 49 year old Japanese should have had the good sense of investing in gold and foreign assets instead of investing in JGB's. Given the Carry Trade, I think a lot of Japanese indeed had that good sense and made good money.
    Actually, the Japanese problem was easily foreseeable since the Japanese population was ageing so fast so long ago already. They already faced the problem of an ageing population long before the Western countries. The consequences of that problem were easily reckognizable and are always deflationary.
    Instead of letting part of their banks go bust, they preferred to create zombie banks and to sclerolize the situation by injecting ever more money into the system.
    They indeed will inflate the Yen still more and people with fixed income will be the victims. I don't think it's in the IMF's power to save Japan: TBTS.
    But in the mean time they keep on accumulating foreign reserves and they have no extern debt.
    http://bit.ly/19aTLvk
    Can you explain that to me ???
    I certainly see no liquidation of FX holdings from their part for now, on the contrary.
    Nov 30 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad month for gold coming to a close [View news story]
    Moon,
    "only speculation equivalent to superstition remains."
    The gold price since 2011 has been subject to a lot of illogical directions -up when it should have been down, but mostly down when it should have been up.
    That is no reason to take superstition as the responsable drive, but rigging. Remember the years of the London Gold Pool. Exactly the same mechanisms happened then. For me that's a proof that eventually things will sort out and logic will prevail.

    "Buy defunct TBTF banks because the government won't let them die"
    Evaluations have risen high already. I would rather sell than buy now.

    "Buy housing because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac represent over 80% of the market and the government will keep supporting the market because they can't afford for a housing collapse that will make them lose over $1 trillion"
    No, because US payment default on mortgages reached a record high again.

    "Buy the stock market because of the Bernanke put."
    Yes, but only large blue chips with exposure to global activities.

    "Where there is government there is price distortion and also often massive failure
    Yes, but it is innate in the human nature: politicians always want to do something to tackle problems.
    Sometimes (not always) it's better to do nothing. Recipes often are worse than the disease.
    A wise politician knows when it's better to do nothing. Alas most politicians have a thirst for action that infatuates them.
    Nov 30 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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