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filipo

filipo
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  • Gold settles at lowest price this year, miners hit new 52-week lows [View news story]
    Doug,
    I just got in this bullish report from Allianz.
    I haven't read it completely myself but I send it to you since it might interest you:

    http://bit.ly/1uVmimo

    It might complete our view.
    Sep 23, 2014. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD - Terrorism Risk Is Shockingly Absent From Analyses [View article]
    charles,
    Yes, they have and they were delighted to climb the pirate ship, and so was I.
    But it's actually Kensington Gardens, not Hyde Park, although that might look like splitting hairs, since they are near each other.
    I haven't been to Holland Park since ages.
    It looked a bit posh to me at the time, but since I haven't seen it since the eighties (I stayed at Jacobean style Holland Park Youth Hostel with my students), I'm a bad judge.
    Sep 23, 2014. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold settles at lowest price this year, miners hit new 52-week lows [View news story]
    noos,
    "Banks only took up 83bn because of a lack of demand. Nothing more nothing less. European companies don't see the demand there so they don't want to invest. Borrowing money in a deflationary environment is disastrous - big debts aganist a backdrop of falling revenues, a surefire recipe for bankruptcy."

    Indeed, you're right: no one serious asks for money, and the ones that ask for have no collateral and are not thrustworth;

    "Bank balance sheets in Europe are shot to pieces."

    The only eurozone bank that recently was shot to pieces to my knowledge was BNPParibas who had to pay out of the blue $9bn to the American Authorities for having done business with Iran.
    I do not think that for the moment eurozone banks are in bad shape, not any worse than average. Their credit rates are regularly upgraded by S&P, Moody's. Risk management remains difficult however due to volatility of asset valuation.
    This is especially true in a deflationary environment.


    Sep 23, 2014. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold settles at lowest price this year, miners hit new 52-week lows [View news story]
    Doug,
    Rate cuts only add to the deflationary problems at this moment. Japan has been doing the same for years and look what was the result.
    Only when Abe started QE in a very agressive way was there temporary uptick of inflation.
    Cheap money is not the problem. There's liquidity enough, only no one wants to make use of it: if the horse doesn't want to drink it's no use to bring it to the water.
    Congrats with your blog, it's very detailed.
    Sep 23, 2014. 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD - The Bottom Is Here [View article]
    182658546854,
    OK, I can understand why you don't want to fight the Fed...or the tape.

    But don't accuse gold bulls of being shortsighted when they disclose apparent Fed or Government intervention in the gold market, because that is what happens:

    http://bit.ly/1C4ltd7

    Excellent trading week to you too.
    Sep 23, 2014. 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD Prices Continue Irrational Behavior; Investors Should Seek More Stable Portfolio Additions [View article]
    charles,
    Well, to be frankly with you, in neither of the two countries would I like to live.
    I resent the Italian chaotic way of life as much as the total absence of any form of decent humor of the Germans. Germans only behave funny at their Munich beer festival and that in my eyes is simply disgusting. They also have a weird concept of art.
    But being an assiduous bicyclist, I find Germany heaven on earth: their bicycle paths are excellent, they have cheap and clean B&B's everywhere and if you limit your diet to fruit, bread and juice, you can even eat well in Germany.
    Sep 23, 2014. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    LaQue,
    Thanks for the good wishes.
    I understand your position. In a more elaborate way, it comes down to this:

    http://bit.ly/Y0UIYe

    I don't disagree. I only think it's difficult if not impossible to prove that lower oil price is either due to overproduction or to lower demand.
    Global oil demand is still increasing strongly even if US and EU demand level out (see the chart in the above article).
    So, imo, a temporary overproduction combined with a lessering increase of demand might be the cause.

    But whatever the cause, this oil price cut comes in handy. I spoke to a number of entrepreneurs and they all say the same: this oil price cut is a relief, even if we don't feel much of it due to our weak euro.

    The positive consequences of fracking on the US GDP/economy might be erased by disastrous foreign policies though.

    Take care ..
    Sep 23, 2014. 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD - The Bottom Is Here [View article]
    excellent call, js !!!
    hat tip !!!
    Sep 23, 2014. 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bakken: How Long Will The Resource Last? [View article]
    it would be about time.
    Sep 22, 2014. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD - Terrorism Risk Is Shockingly Absent From Analyses [View article]
    eagle,
    intended, yes, sometimes I get carried away and try to be funny.
    What John Mauldin said about shale gas drilling especially caught my eye. It might be the game changer that we need, despite Washington.
    Sep 22, 2014. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold settles at lowest price this year, miners hit new 52-week lows [View news story]
    Doug,
    There have been foreclosures in Europe, especially in Greece, Italy, Spain and Greece.
    Some led to social dramas that have been largely displayed in the press. I'm not condemning nor agreeing on this, I just give you the facts.
    Concerning the European banks, there will be a stress test in November-December.
    I don't expect much of these tests to come out. They'll never disclose what is important.
    But still, what has changed are (as far as I know and with bankers you never know) the off balance practices. They are formally forbidden now.
    As to whether Euro banks have done well, I would diversify between the Club Med countries and the rest of Europe. In Portugal f.i. a few months ago, Espiritu Santo Bank defaulted and was nationalized.
    German Deutsche Bank has done badly indeed and you are right that it still has lots of Greek debt on it's balance sheet, however guaranteed by the ECB.
    In Belgium however banks do pretty well, thanks to their triple mandates: Retail banking, securities and Insurance. They increased Insurance premiums and that increased their profitability a lot.
    KBC f.i. a few months ago got an upgrade from S&P.

    As a conclusion, I would say, that there might more problems turning up, in that some Club Med nations still are in a dare state, with Italian economy f.i. losing track fast. (Spanish economy is doing well, except national debt and unemployment are still high - Ireland recovered and paid back its debt to IMF).
    The other Club Med's will probably need more ECB help, which Draghi certainly is prepared to purvey, but which Germany (google Schaeuble, German minister of Finance) is not willing to grant.
    That disconnect between Club Med countries and Germany, Netherlands, UK (although UK is not in the eurozone, they have their say as part of the EU) and Finland, might prove to be a lethal time bomb.
    Concerning that, I stick to my conviction that it will eventually lead too the split up of the eurozone. The productivity spread between the various euro countries is way to large. Nobody knows when it will happen, but it sure will some day, probably on the occasion of some elections. Scottish referendum was a close escape, but watch the Catalonians in November: they'll certainly vote for independence.
    Draghi however is a cunning monkey and with German elections just behind us, for the time being, everyone seems happy.
    Sep 22, 2014. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Lower Lows Will Be Seen Whether You Like It Or Not [View article]
    gel,
    Still convinced of no manipulation ?
    Well, listen to this, and don't say it's a person you honestly respect:
    http://bit.ly/1C4ltd7
    Sep 22, 2014. 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD - Terrorism Risk Is Shockingly Absent From Analyses [View article]
    charles,
    Exactly, and listen to this:
    http://bit.ly/1C4ltd7
    I don't understand how some ignorants keep denying that truth, except if they are part of the system.
    Sep 22, 2014. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold settles at lowest price this year, miners hit new 52-week lows [View news story]
    Doug,
    Your first reference refers exactly to what I was saying: the ECB last week made €500 bn available for banks.
    If those banks only took €83 up, there can be a number of reasons, but certainly not the presence of unwound derivatives on their balance sheets.
    As a matter of fact in 2011-12 when the first important EU measures were taken to save transnational European banks, one of the main measures was the ECB taking over toxic products that were on those banks' balance sheets for an amount of ca. €4Tr.
    If you look at the ECB balance sheet in that period, you'll acknowledge that that was the reason the ECB's balance sheet grew so exponentially.
    Greek, Italian, Spanish, French, even German banks made use of that opportunity.
    It is a fairy tale that those toxic assets still are on the balance sheets of the different European banks.
    Eventually, the ECB over the years disposed of a part of those toxic assets and hence the ECB's balance sheet again dropped to a more reasonable €2.75Tr.

    Your second reference is a survey about bank transforming, among others transforming them to the requirements of Basel III.
    I don't deny that the capital requirements of Basel III were quite a shock to every European banker when they were published, but in the same time, they assured more transparency and more certainty, less leverage.
    NOWHERE in this survey do I find a proof of the existence of derivative related problematic assets on our Banks' balance sheets.
    Maybe I overlooked (I read the 33 pages fast), if so, please tell me the exact page.
    Sep 22, 2014. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold settles at lowest price this year, miners hit new 52-week lows [View news story]
    Doug,
    Draghi has extented the LTRO (TLTRO) function to over a new amount of €500 bn last week.
    Meaning, banks can come and tank capital at the ECB practically free. They pay a meaningless 0,125%.
    I see no problems for European banks whatsoever.
    The only problems Europe might face will be social unrest over unpopular deflationary government restructuring and government related, meaning national debts will make budget cuts further necessary and hence cause political unrest among Parlementarians, majorities against opposition.
    In that regard, France might be the next Greece.
    Sep 22, 2014. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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