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  • Gold And GLD Could See Further Losses As The U.S Economy Recovers  [View article]
    fish,
    "While i buy a little gold at a time, I'm thinking oil is the place to be."

    These things (energy sources) are quite cyclical, so you could be right.
    Yet, the world is awash with oil right now, and as long as the Arabs don't cut production (maybe in November at their next OPEC meeting), I see no shortages appearing.

    $100 in walmart all year ? Boy are you frugal !
    Didn't realize amazon was that popular in the US. Do they use these drones to deliver ?
    Over here due to our dense population, people still go to malls and because of traffic jams delivery vans don't make a chance.
    And drones ? Politicians have set up a number of rules: you need to have a pilot license to operate them, they're only allowed in rural areas, which we don't have and their range is limited to 50 meters (!). Told you, this is socialist Paradise.
    Oct 4, 2014. 12:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And GLD Could See Further Losses As The U.S Economy Recovers  [View article]
    fish,
    Yes, that's the burden of being a reference currency. Martin Wolf highlighted that in the FT some years ago. Since then it's gone mainstream.

    Today M. El Erian touched that problem too when he stated that notwithstanding all the clamor on the good jobs report, there will be rough times ahead with lots of volatility.

    And I jus got a report that Euro Disney (70% owned by Walt Disney US) is in dire financial problems. US multinationals will increasingly import other countries' deflation AND low FX !! KKO shareholders, beware !!
    What Charles does not seem to understand is that there are Always two sides on a penny. A strong USD has imo more disadvantages for the US than advantages.
    But to him in Rome, with his strong USD paid paycheck, life must be like money and chicks for free. That might hinder his view.
    Oct 3, 2014. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: I Don't Think We Break Down... Yet  [View article]
    charles,
    Thanks for the article, it's interesting.
    But you do realize that the main cause of Chinese rebound was fiscal ???

    "We argue that the key
    difference is that China’s stimulus programs are fi…scal in nature, whereas those in Western
    countries are almost purely monetary." (p. 5)

    If I look at our European countries' measures to counter the crisis and fight budget deficits, they ARE monetary, and not fiscal.
    And when I listen to my American friends, I hear nothing but complaints about fiscal tightening.

    So, how come there suddenly should be economic growth then in the West and more particularly in the US, if it's specifically that lacuna that the authors are pointing at ?
    How come that a shady jobs report creates such optimism ?
    How come that all this changes a cautious man like Charles Hinton into a raving stock market bull if it wasn't monetary policy but fiscal easing that he awaited for?

    I mean, the argument that you should be getting from this highly interesting article is quite opposite from what you say.
    Oct 3, 2014. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And GLD Could See Further Losses As The U.S Economy Recovers  [View article]
    fish,
    "How can we expect them to be able to create policies to help provide jobs here in the U.S."

    Well, at least these folks have got a job:

    http://bit.ly/1rITb3v
    Oct 3, 2014. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And GLD Could See Further Losses As The U.S Economy Recovers  [View article]
    charles,
    "In fact todays report was goldilocks..."
    Sure, if you forget for a moment that labor participation rate.

    In fact what the Fed is doing, is just solve the unemployment problem by simply ignoring it through creative statistics.
    I've Always said the US unemployment problem is not an economic problem, it's a social problem.
    I never dreamed they would take my words so literally so fast.
    Yellen told those on unemployment they should buildup assets to get out of poverty.
    Well, there you have it: best thing to do is invest thy hard earned dollars in Alibaba.

    "The stock market seems to like it."
    These chickens like everything as long as it tells them the rozy part of the story.
    Oct 3, 2014. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Not In A Bear Market  [View article]
    fish,
    Yes, labor participation rate dropped to 62.7%.
    We're back in 1978.
    And the quality of those jobs added seems to be shaddy too.
    But who cares, the PPT has done its job and equity markets cheer.
    Oct 3, 2014. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: I Don't Think We Break Down... Yet  [View article]
    QP,
    Concerning that better than expected jobs report:

    1/ A better than expected jobs report increases the probability of an interest rate hike by the Fed somewhere next year. So, good news should actually be bad news for equities and the economy.

    2/ Have you seen the labor participation rate ? Not so rozy, if you ask me.

    3/ The strong USD hinders US exports and US industry.

    4/ Not only gold plummets, oil does as well. The US are a major oil producer.

    In short, I see not so many reasons to cheer about.

    Your view ?
    Oct 3, 2014. 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: I Don't Think We Break Down... Yet  [View article]
    bogi,
    OK, I'll try to be a little bit more clear.
    Have you got any idea about how Mr. John Paulson is managing his portfolio that mainly consists of a large heap of gold shares in GLD.

    The article says
    "While he cut his major position in the yellow metal by half, selling nearly 12 million shares in the largest gold ETF worth $1.38 billion at the end of the quarter, he lost at least $736 million in his cumulative positions through the three months ending with the month of June."

    and that was in 2013.

    Is he still doing business in 2014 ?
    Have you got evidence of him selling any further or buying the bottom ?
    Oct 3, 2014. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does The SPDR Gold Trust ETF Bottom Out?  [View article]
    fish,
    Scrap over the years and with prices declining becomes obsolete.
    Soon scrap will have vanished.
    Chinese and Indians don't sell scrap and don't make these kind of statistics.
    Oct 3, 2014. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does The SPDR Gold Trust ETF Bottom Out?  [View article]
    tactical,
    "mining is a filthy business."

    You don't need mining to find gold.
    Mining only accounts for 1,4% of global gold reserves.
    Oct 3, 2014. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does The SPDR Gold Trust ETF Bottom Out?  [View article]
    David,
    What you just etched is how normal commodity markets work, commodities that disappear when bought, oil, zinc, copper, silver, lead, palladium, iron ore....
    Gold is an abnormal commodity: it does not disappear. It only gets stashed from one hoarder's heap to another hoarder's heap. So there never is a shortage as there is never an overproduction either.
    Mining makes such a tiny little % of overall potential supply that it's not even worth mentioning. And due to paper gold that % got even smaller.

    What gets sold, gets bought and what gets bought, gets sold, exactly the same numbers.
    Overstocks of gold waiting to be sold are not physical, only virtual since they relate to the price. There are no physical shortages either, only virtual since also related to the price.

    Whoever buys or sells (HK, Shanghai, Dubai, NY, London) doesn't matter to the price since gold goes from one stash to another.

    "The bullion banks will run out of physical metal to cover all the short positions as the metal flows to the Asian markets."

    That is the only truth in your comment: paper gold distorts the market and eventually those who have large short positions will end up holding paper and those who have acted as counterparties to these shorts, if they are Lucky, will have the physical stuff IF they get delivery.
    Oct 3, 2014. 12:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: I Don't Think We Break Down... Yet  [View article]
    bogi,
    Don't pretend you don't know John Paulson:

    http://onforb.es/1eV2YdE
    Oct 3, 2014. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: I Don't Think We Break Down... Yet  [View article]
    contrarian,
    Draghon has his hands tied by Mrs. Merkel.
    He can't do much except window dressing and talking tough.
    Germans remember Weimar. They want no QE, they want a strong Deutsche Mark. This will eventually kill the euro.
    Oct 3, 2014. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: I Don't Think We Break Down... Yet  [View article]
    charles,
    "the petro dollars was about to die."

    The Saudis are strangling it: they keep their production high and sell at a discount.
    You think fracking will be able to compete at minus $90 ?
    Oct 3, 2014. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And GLD Could See Further Losses As The U.S Economy Recovers  [View article]
    charles,
    Have you seen labor participation rate too ?
    I'm even not talking of the quality of the jobs added (halftime, services, waiters, bartenders...)
    But if you're Lucky with that, and so is apparently the market, be my guest..
    Oct 3, 2014. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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