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filipo

filipo
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  • Crude, gold look to end July with a bang [View news story]
    Gayle,
    You're forgetting the waiters and waitresses: the Services' sector did well too.
    Jul 31, 2015. 08:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons To Buy Gold Right Now [View article]
    s,
    "If you are interested in gambling on some useless piece of the earth that serves no economical purpose,"
    Janet Yellen wears golden necklaces from time to time, haven't you noticed ?
    That makes the world a nicer place..
    Jul 30, 2015. 11:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Physical Gold Flows From Switzerland Has A Little For The Bulls And Bears [View article]
    Indians have bought Swiss refiner Valcambi:

    http://tinyurl.com/pg4...

    They want the gold AND the gold revenues.
    Jul 30, 2015. 11:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Falls More Than 4% In Under A Minute - Here Is What Investors Need To Know [View article]
    not,
    "just trying to learn how this market works."
    Hey, that's exactly the conspiracy ..
    You should obey, not ask critical questions and not disrupt good order.
    Jul 30, 2015. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Gold Reserves: A Strong Dose Of Reality [View article]
    James,
    "No, they conclude that because they already have that preconceived notion about gold's importance and the evidence of gold purchases is used as a source of confirmation bias."
    Who gave them this idea ? Some 2,000 years of gold hoarding by individuals, royals, CB's, whatever, but the idea that gold has value can't be dismissed.

    Your former reply: "I see girls buying gold earrings to look distinguished, grandmothers buying gold coins as gifts for their grandkids, and some rich businesspeople and or speculators buying gold bars as part of their portfolios. What is the big deal?"
    Is that a proof that gold is not being hoarded by Chinese authorities too ?
    I think not.
    It's not a proof either that Chinese authorities do hoard gold, but neither is it a proof they don't.
    In other words, it can be both. We have no idea, except the announcement of the PBoC and the logical fact that the 133 Chinese bullion banks who are property of the State must have some gold in reserve. The fact that one of them, the Bank of China has joined the LBMA should be seen in that regard:
    http://bit.ly/1JvUL0Y

    I have no idea what the Chinese are planning. Are their artificial islands in the Pacific proof that they are expanding ? I think not: they are what they are: tiny little islands with some little yellow men in uniform running across. There's no grand strategic purpose whatsoever. Some pepole want to see it differently, but that is because they have a preconceived notion that islands are strategically important.
    I guess we can indeed agree on that.
    Jul 28, 2015. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Gold Reserves: A Strong Dose Of Reality [View article]
    James,
    "The real issue here, it seems to me, is that certain people have this idea that gold is all-important strategically. As a result, they see China producing and importing massive amounts of gold"

    I think it's rather the other way around:
    The real issue is that China produces and imports massive amounts of gold. As a result certain people have the idea that gold is all-important strategically.

    You can't deny either that the Chinese authorities have on many occasions adviced their citizens to buy gold:
    http://bit.ly/1DLYN13

    Whether that means that the Chinese authorities are convinced that gold is important, I don't know. All I can say is that they advice their citizens to buy gold. Is it a strategy ? I don't know, but it sure is a phenomenon.

    Mind you, with their equity markets on the reverse, their gold buying appetite might be over for a while because of lack of funds. On the other hand, they may find gold a better and safer investment than an overvalued stock exchange and that might support the gold buying spree that is going on for years now.
    Jul 28, 2015. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Makes New Bear Market Lows [View article]
    Peter,
    Isn't it a healthy thought that these $200 T of debt have been created to short the gold price ?
    Jul 27, 2015. 09:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Gold Reserves: A Strong Dose Of Reality [View article]
    James,
    I don't think Bron Suchecki is a fanatical gold fan, but I put that aside.
    What still bothers me is this:
    You must be aware that there are bullion banks who operate in China, selling and buying gold and silver to the general public.
    A bullion bank without any oz of gold or silver in store is rather inconceivable, is it not ? They must own a certain amount of gold & silver reserves. Without reserves they can't trade, can they ?
    Bullion banks are state banks like all banks in China are.
    Ergo: the Chinese State must own more gold than the 1,658T they reported from the PBoC.
    I don't know the numbers, it could be anything, but there must be more.
    Your view ?
    Jul 27, 2015. 09:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has China Manipulated The Gold Market? [View article]
    enviro,
    You are probably right and more people seem to agree with your view:
    http://bit.ly/1MvZELb
    Jul 27, 2015. 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Gold Reserves: A Strong Dose Of Reality [View article]
    James,
    Bron Suchecki of the Perth Mint has a different view on how much gold official China owns:
    http://bit.ly/1S8OsrQ
    Jul 27, 2015. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Makes New Bear Market Lows [View article]
    LT,
    There has been a lot of pep-talk going on about that strong USD lately and Yellen sure has done her part by waving that rate hike promise. She wants the whole world to invest in the US so as to promote the USD and USD-denominated assets.
    It's kinda "sell the world your subprime-sh*t" revisited.

    I'm not buying this and I sure won't invest a dime in this overvalued USD and certainly not in US T-bonds.

    At the end of 2016 there's going to be elections and suppose Donald Trump or Hillary gets elected... not exactly the persons to give hope to the world, are they ?

    I stick to my Belgian REIT's and to gold. The hell to those hedge funds who are historically net short. I don't give a damn. The more they sell paper gold, the more they'll have to buy later.
    Gold bugs don't give in. Their zerohedge is their strength.
    Jul 27, 2015. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Makes New Bear Market Lows [View article]
    mike,
    OK, I understand.
    It comes down to USD rate hike > weak US economy > weak USD.

    However, how on earth can you reconcile a weak USD with the US pulling the rest of the world out of the sh*t ?

    When in the same time you acknowledge that a strong USD is needed to make the rest of the world export their goods direction the US and make their economies thrive ?

    Mind you, I'm not so convinced of that strong USD either, but for different reasons than you are.
    Imagine Donald Trump or H. Clinton for the next US president. Just imagine..
    Jul 27, 2015. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Makes New Bear Market Lows [View article]
    CA,
    That's why I said:
    "but even capital spending by authorities under the form that you describe, can hurt overtime if it creates too much debt. You can kill your dog if you feed him too rich.
    How much ? Well there is a mathematical golden ratio and Reinhart-Rogoff were close to have discovered it. Alas, they didn't differentiate between incentives to consumer spending and pure productivity growth boosting investment."

    I repeat:
    "even CAPITAL spending by the authorities under the form that you describe can hurt".

    What was the form that he described ?
    Answer:
    "it would have been better to use a small percentage of the total QE (debt and debt service) that has been created since 2008 on productive deficit spending on infrastructure........"

    Ergo: investment (capital spending) hurts less than consumer spending -cause there is an immediate payback-effect for the nation as it enhances efficiency/productivity.

    Example:
    Suppose Washington DC grants a pay raise of 3% to its 2.0 million civil servants (=incentive to consumer spending). To achieve this the govt issues $2T of 10Y bonds that add to the overall debt. Consequence: all go to Wal-Mart and spend their plus income on Chinese junk. US GDP goes higher, but so does the negative trade balance. Result: Chinese get richer, the US poorer. Debt will skyrocket

    Alternative: Washington DC builds 100 bridges all over the country. To achieve this the govt issues $2T of 10Y bonds that add to the overall debt. Consequence: builders and workers get their fair share of the loot, but the nation works in a more productive way cause it has better infrastructure. Higher productivity leads to economic growth. It's precisely economic growth that is needed to get rid of the debt. Result: Debt will go down.
    Economics 101.

    However, as also I said, there is a golden ratio, even for this type of capital spending: the dog should not be over-fed. Debts that are the result of investment in infrastucture should not be too high either. They may easily be higher than in the case of consumption driven investments, but not so high that the debt becomes unserviceable.
    Jul 26, 2015. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Makes New Bear Market Lows [View article]
    rogro,
    "we would have much less total debt (and debt service) today and maybe better internet, bridges, airports as tangible productive assets thatmight actually provide some economic growth and opportunity that would help to service the debt created to uild it...... "

    Right, but even capital spending by authorities under the form that you describe, can hurt overtime if it creates too much debt. You can kill your dog if you feed him too rich.
    How much ? Well there is a mathematical golden ratio and Reinhart-Rogoff were close to have discovered it. Alas, they didn't differentiate between incentives to consumer spending and pure productivity growth boosting investment.
    They were talking Debt in general.
    Jul 26, 2015. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Makes New Bear Market Lows [View article]
    mike,
    I'm still awaiting your explanation and the weekend is nearly over.
    Jul 26, 2015. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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