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filipo

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  • Don't Buy Gold Now, Wait Until It's Under $1,000 [View article]
    Saw,
    Doug not only sells gold, he also buys it.
    His is a two-way trade.
    This comment is not aimed at underestimating his competence, only to point out that your argument of his integrity does not count.
    Apr 6, 2015. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Gold Now, Wait Until It's Under $1,000 [View article]
    Looking forward to the disclosure of your indicators, Doug.
    Have a great Easter weekend !
    Apr 4, 2015. 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Gold Now, Wait Until It's Under $1,000 [View article]
    Trend,
    I couldn't agree more with you.

    Doug and you certainly have a point in that the usual suspects GS and UBS have joined the LBMA and NOT the Chinese banks as was first anticipated.
    So the manipulation of the gold price keeping down will continue:

    http://bit.ly/1xMKXxK
    Apr 4, 2015. 08:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Gold Now, Wait Until It's Under $1,000 [View article]
    Doug,
    We know each other for years now and I Always appreciated your writings as I still do.

    In this case though, although there is much truth in what you say about gold needing fear to go up, there is reason to believe in an upward tendency.

    1/ The USD is fairly overvalued.

    2/ There is the Greek drama still unfoilding, involving fear.

    3/ The US data -notably the latest jobs' report- were not so good, hence the Q whether the Fed would hike rates.
    http://bit.ly/1CEbyvW

    4/ GS sees Peak gold. Whether that is utter nonsense or not, does not matter. The fact that it's GS who say this will convince some investors to give credit to this news item and invest accordingly.
    http://bit.ly/1CEbyvZ

    http://bit.ly/1CEbyMc

    says more or less the same...

    5/ There's India and China who import ever more physical:
    http://bit.ly/1CEbyMe

    I don't question your ability to predict price movements in gold. As a professional dealer you certainly must have a daily overview of what happens in the gold market. I wish you all the best in your future dealings.
    Myself, I'm not a bull, nor a bear. I'm rather detached since I bought my gold at ca. $617 back in 2006 and certainly feel no need to depart of it.
    As you know, the euro can be finished any day, so why should I revert my initial investment ?
    I have been trading stocks of lately and found out that is a far more rewarding occupancy than trading gold.

    Best wishes and take care.
    Apr 4, 2015. 08:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Gold Now, Wait Until It's Under $1,000 [View article]
    Doug,
    Does the high number of short positions not give you the creeps, talking of fear ?

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I mean, if so many future contracts are betting on a lower gold price, not much should be needed to reverse that situation and send gold up, wouldn't it ?
    Apr 3, 2015. 05:25 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD Drops 1.78% After FOMC Lockhart's Confident Florida Speech [View article]
    Not sure Lockart read this chart of US sales & US earnings/share in the S&P500:
    http://bit.ly/1MgfRmd
    Feb 14, 2015. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bears Are In Control [View article]
    pat,
    The London double price-setting offers a benchmark to the other markets that you mentioned in your article.
    Again, I have no idea what parameters they use in London to set the price. They say they have clients' orders in the pocket -buy and sell- and according to that decide of what the price should be. Sounds like poor maths to me. I don't understand why they don't let prices fluctuate like in the stock market: it's open and it's fair (to some extend).
    Why does this secret consortium have to interfere ?
    So, already at this stage rigging comes in.

    Then you have the other markets, of which the futures market of NY is indeed the most important. Although they take London prices as a benchmark, you can clearly see that often they diverge and it's here that HFT comes in, driving prices suddenly down by a couple of percentages. Remember the Cyprus case ? It clearly happened then. But I have a feeling it happens all the time, in a more refined way, looking at the number of shorting contracts.
    Feb 14, 2015. 03:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bears Are In Control [View article]
    pat,
    All I know is that these 5 banks determine the price setting:

    Scotia-Mocatta, Barclays Capital (Replaced N M Rothschild & Sons when they abdicated), Deutsche Bank, HSBC Bank and Société Générale.

    In the meantime DB has left -on ethical (!) grounds- but will be replaced by a Chinese bank soon.

    http://bit.ly/1vIylXC

    As you may notice when reading the above article they are rather proud to be able to say that they "fix" the price. It's not a lie, indeed they do, in both senses.

    How exactly the fixing is being executed, I mean what parameters they use, is the best kept secret of their business.
    Feb 13, 2015. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Have No Choice But To Own Gold After This Latest McKinsey Chart [View article]
    Lohen,
    You are badly informed.
    From 1960 to present the share of gold in gov vaults has dramatically decreased by a whopping 75%: from 68% in 1960 to 17% in 2015.
    They hardly have anything left.
    It's all in your and my pockets.
    Feb 13, 2015. 12:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Have No Choice But To Own Gold After This Latest McKinsey Chart [View article]
    stat,
    "Actually you need less than that (I don't know how much less, however),"

    You're splitting hairs.
    You know perfectly well that it's hardly rewarding to (re)invest your money in T-bonds.
    Just try to make a living on a meager 1.48% yield that you get from a 5YT-note:
    http://yhoo.it/1CnfoXk
    And that's 5 years you have to wait before you get your money back !
    I'm not even speaking of 1_2_3 Y denominations.. they're even worse.

    "to get the growth going."
    That's interesting, cause it reminds me the housing market anno 2007. Remember ? When suddenly the bubble burst ? People said exactly the same: "to get the growth going".
    Just saying, cause when Dame Yellen decides to increase rates in June 2015, the game of rising bond prices might suddenly be over.
    Feb 13, 2015. 12:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Have No Choice But To Own Gold After This Latest McKinsey Chart [View article]
    stat,
    "And what "collapse", how do you define it?"
    Well, in case you hadn't noticed, the DJIA had gone down from 16,000 to nearly 6,000 from 2007-2009.
    Some might call that a strategic retreat, I prefer calling it a collapse.
    You and I agree that in the end it's all semantics, but Jim Cramer would not agree. He was absolutely horrified at the time.

    "Treasuries did just fine during that time as well."
    It depends on how you define "just fine".
    According to your predilection for high dividends, they did horribly bad: yields went down to hell.
    Their prices went up, yes, but, again, according to your standards of never selling your asset, what was the point of rising T-bond prices, if you never sold them during that period ?
    And how hard is it to have to live from a 0.5% yield on a 5YT-bond ? Just ask the pension funds. They know all about it.
    Feb 13, 2015. 12:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bears Are In Control [View article]
    pat,
    I actually knew already of how gold is being traded and how the gold price is technically being set.
    Tnx for your article anyway. I'm touched.

    However, my concern was rather regarding the shenanigans that the gold market has to endure.
    HFT for instance is a real nuisance:
    http://nyti.ms/1CnaUQo
    Some charges have been made, but government itself is involved, so what can come forth, you think, of the enquiry ?
    http://bit.ly/1CnaUQq

    Conclusion: when I said I saw some similarity in the making of a sausage and the fixing of the gold price, I was referring to these practices.
    Feb 13, 2015. 12:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Have No Choice But To Own Gold After This Latest McKinsey Chart [View article]
    mil,
    "with the stocks and bonds, you can make the money to "go shopping" without, as statisticool has pointed out, selling anything!"

    Well it all depends on how big your shopping appetite is and/or how large your dividend entries.
    If you need a new car, you won't find anything decent for under $40,000, I guess. If paying these $40,000 only with your dividends is your credo, you have to have a rather large portfolio of well paying stocks.
    Not only is the latter a problem these days -how much do 5YT-bonds pay you ? The search for yield has driven equity-prices so up that you need a magnifying glass to find the one that still pays you 2%- but you need $2,000,000 to get your $40,000 on dividends, that's a hefty sum.

    Sounds like you're one of the 0.1% elite, milbank, you own a rather large portfolio ?
    Feb 12, 2015. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Have No Choice But To Own Gold After This Latest McKinsey Chart [View article]
    stat,
    "but I'm saying I don't have to sell my asset to profit because of dividends."

    So you NEVER sell your asset. Equities pay dividends, so you never sell your equities, right ?
    Well, you better had sold them, in early 2007 before the collapse started.

    "You are saying gold is real money."
    You must confound me with someone else.
    Such is absolutely not my conviction. Thank god, I live in the age of the credit card. It's so easy and I own no black money !
    Mind you, there are people who use their gold as money. There was this story a few years ago of a Chinese woman who went to the local Bentley store to buy her a brand new luxury Bentley Sedan with her handbag filled with a couple of gold bars.
    But these are exceptions, I guess.
    Although, maybe in remote Zimbabwe.... ? Who knows ?
    Feb 12, 2015. 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Have No Choice But To Own Gold After This Latest McKinsey Chart [View article]
    Ari,
    "not how price action is supposed to work for a physical market"

    I stopped asking myself questions on how the gold price is fixed.
    I see quite a resemblance with the making of sausages: you simply don't wanna know.

    What interested me in the WGC data was to acknowledge whether the production had gone up or down versus last year.
    I expected a downfall cause of the low price and several miners having reported capex cuts. Most of them work under break-even since long:
    http://bloom.bg/1Mhf2cT
    I wouldn't be surprised if someone told me they're being subsidized by certain Central Banks.
    I mean they get their money so easy ! What fool would keep on investing facing disastrous balance sheets except CB's ?
    Feb 12, 2015. 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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