Why Egypt Should Matter to Investors [View article]
Yes, I.T., these are interesting times. Maybe I know Egypt a little better than you do. I used to work there for over 3 years in the seventies and still have a few Egyptian friends with whom I correspond on a more or less regular basis. In the seventies Egypt had a population of ca. 40m. Now, it has 80m. Such an exponential increase calls for problems, like housing, food supply, education... The current revolution that we see is extremely dangerous for the region, meaning Israel. Egypt was more or less the sole Arab partner, Israel could rely on. If this would change when theocracy would be installed in Egypt, God knows what would ensue. The fundamentalist Party of Islamic Brotherhood is the driving force behind the current events. They exploit the food deficit riots politically. I expect them to win because their support is overwhelming. Saudi Arabia backs Mubarak with WORDS, but I don't trust the Wahhabites: never trust a Wahhabite, they operate with a hidden agenda. They very much favor an islamist party. The current situation can get threatening for the US as well: we should remind ourselves of what happened in Iran when Ayyatollah Khomeiny took over from Sjah Pahlevi. BTW, Egypt has lots of Sphinxes, one big and lots of small, and they have indeed all lost body parts due to old age.
CNBC Is Right: America, We Have a Serious Problem [View article]
"And we all understand that this debt and deficit is not a cancer. In fact, in a balance sheet recession it is a great benefit to this economy. And we certainly understand that it will not destroy this great nation."
I don't get it: if you increase the amount of debt (deficit), you monetize that debt, and the amount of your commodities stay the same (they can't be artificially increased), what else does this cause except inflation, low (negative) interest rates, huge Carry Trade phenomena, misallocation of money in asset bubbles abroad (I don't see any Housing Market Price rising in the USA) and a lot of lack of confidence in our own currency.
Lessons From 5 Years Of Economic Crisis [View article]
Left, Iceland by referendum blankly refused to pay back its debts to the UK / Netherlands and thus exported its problems. Try to imagine all debtors from all over the world refusing to pay back their debts, a strategy you and 19 others apparently seem to advocate. How would that turn out, you think ?
Investors Take Heed: Population Growth, Not Upheaval, Remains Egypt's Greatest Challenge [View article]
Yes, out of control growing populations are a threath, for themselves, the neighbouring countries, the world. Especially when people are poorly educated, these threaths can become worrisome. In fact, Mubarak now is a victim of having done too much for his country: had he not cared for infrastructure, water supply, good housing, hygiene, there wouldn't have been such a pop. explosion. I fear a Malthusian crisis is around the corner.
U.S. Energy Policy Is Responsible for Unrest in Egypt [View article]
"What do you think?" Well, what I think is that the situation in N.AFrica/Middle East has very little to do with oil/energy, but alot with food. This upheaval we see in Tunisia and Egypt/Jordan... is about food-prices, not about energy-prices. People are starving from HUNGER there, not from not having no petrol for their cars. In Cairo you see cars running during the curfew as if oil were free. My Egyptian friend Hasan el-Hashiri who worked for the Maktab el-Hazar wrote me a few days ago that even he as a fomer high ranked civil servant found it hard to pay for his daily food.
Therefore, Michael, your whole article is irrelevant. Not US energy policy is responsable for the mess in N.Africa/the Middle East, but USDA policy is: www.marketskeptics.com... By foolishly shorting food prices in 2009/2010, the USDA created a huge worldwide food deficit. And this is only the beginning. If you carefully read Eric's article (I don't understand why Americans aren't any better informed about their own Governmental mismanagement), you will understand that the peak of the food deficit should happen before the new harvests arrive (meaning end of October). Hopefully, these will be rich at last. BTW, your only relevant point concerns US ethanol policy: when there is global food shortage, its is a criminal offence to promote a technique that decreases the acreage used for food.
The First Stage of Inflation Has Already Hit, Next Up Is the Currency Collapse [View article]
Wrong. I see no positive result from American stimulus in American economy: look at the charts of unemployment, housing, Trade deficit... The world has been pulled out of a Great Recession by the dramatic plunge of oil prices and by positive measures of China, the only country who has the means (reserves) to do so. When the US started QE, they created inflation since QE was not backed by substantial reserves, on the contrary.
It's Time for the Irish People to Rise [View article]
And I was in the opinion the Irish had already risen when they decided to build themselves huge new sophisticated houses with German money. Apparently, one can never rise high enough.
Rethinking Gold Asset Allocations For 2013 [View article]
Rummel, the question isn't whether gold will (under)perform the next year(s). The fact is there won't be an alternative. Bonds ? I guess you fancy negative rates. Stocks ? I foresee a tsunami of earnings erosion reports coming due to austerity, higher taxes, less consumption. I even won't mention the fiscal cliff or the European mess (yesterday 4 big Greek banks reported they need another € 28 billion to survive). Everyone with brains knows only gold, being nobody's debt will survive. Why you think Brazil, S. Korea, Russia, the Philipines, China, Indonesia, India... have been tanking so heavily recently ? But you are right on one point: in the West unsophisticated people sell their gold out of necessity and in the East they buy it. Gold follows wealth.
Thank GDP It's Friday - Fundamentals Finally Matter [View article]
@sauce: "Paul Volcker fixed what?" Well, for one thing, Paul Volcker fixed the inflation and by doing so, he laid the foundations of the next goldilocks period. Has it never struck you that an economy needs capital to develop ? It's not by endless consumption that we are going to fix our problems. The only thing that we fix now by over consuming, is the Chinese economy. All Reagan did after he sent Volcker home, was using up the reserves that had been formed in the previous period, just like Bush did with the reserves that Clinton had laid aside. Nothing difficult to create prosperity then: you just have to use the riches that your predecessor has been assiduously building up and dumb people will accord you the title of benefactor, whatever debt mess you leave behind for the next generation. Look at current US Trade Deficit Figures and use your brain.
Papering Over The Gold Standard's Flaws [View article]
"In other words, there was a reason why the gold standard was abandoned: it was choking recovery in the 1930s. This is old news, and convincingly documented in numerous studies through the years, including Barry Eichengreen's research that shows that the earlier a nation left the gold standard in the 1930s, the sooner its economy began to heal from the deleveraging crisis:" Knowing our history, one should point out that economic growth in the late thirties was only achieved through large leveraging and national re-armament campains. Is it that we want ? What is also often forgotten is that the large debts our economies had to carry after WW II were only wept out by the strong inflation period of the sixties. Is it that we want ?
What James does not seem to understand is that a gold standard is good for maintaining a slight deflationary environment, while a fiat money standard is bound for inflation. The lure of printing paper money is high in democracies. A light deflation should not be demonized. A large part of the 19th century actually has been deflationary and yet, there was progress. International trade was automatically balanced with the gold standard. The problem with a gold standard only occurs when there is gold shortage, as was the case in the 16th-17th centuries, hence the notion of monetary hunger (comparable to nowadays "credit crunch"). Of course the very idea of having to live in a deflationary society seems horrible. Trade Unions, politicians, Retail Bankers..., they all would have trouble to survive because they live on promises.
Today in Commodities: Fighting Against the Dollar [View article]
I guess a lot of pundits and talking heads have missed it and are still missing it. They simply don't get it. And yet, it's very simple: it's game over for lots of fiat currencies.
Precious Metals Whacked by Grim Goldilocks [View article]
"if professionals are selling precious metals now, a huge tide of retail related selling could follow. Gold and silver related names look extremely vulnerable to ‘weak hands’ pressure if certain psychological thresholds can be broken." I agree with most if not all of the above article except I have my doubts about the above sentence. Someone who buys physical PMs has a tendency to keep what he/she acquired. After all, it's been acquired with redundant money one has no need of getting back hastily. Knowing that the PMs price plunge has been initially motioned by derivatives, one has to bear in mind that time going by, the price will adjust according to the physical market. Moreover, once the old spectre of Sovereign default will be hot issue again (March 11 is election day in Ireland), uncertainty will be back. And there's another topic: US figures might indeed look less ugly, but these are nominal figures. What if someone gave them real inflation corrected ? Once people figure that out, PMs might resurge.
About Michael Levy: "Michael's poetry and essays grace many web sites, newspapers, journals and magazines throughout the world. He is a prominent speaker on health and wellness maintenance, stress eradication, wealth creation and development, authentic happiness and inspirational poetry."
I guess this article can be catalogued among Michael's poetry.
What to Expect From Gold Prices in 2011 [View article]
Street Authority (what's in a name ?) compares lemons with apples. As if the ICT-bubble or the housing bubble have anything in common to the gold market "bubble". Articles like these make me laugh. For the record, I'll give S. Authority these:
Why Egypt Should Matter to Investors [View article]
Maybe I know Egypt a little better than you do. I used to work there for over 3 years in the seventies and still have a few Egyptian friends with whom I correspond on a more or less regular basis.
In the seventies Egypt had a population of ca. 40m. Now, it has 80m. Such an exponential increase calls for problems, like housing, food supply, education...
The current revolution that we see is extremely dangerous for the region, meaning Israel. Egypt was more or less the sole Arab partner, Israel could rely on. If this would change when theocracy would be installed in Egypt, God knows what would ensue. The fundamentalist Party of Islamic Brotherhood is the driving force behind the current events. They exploit the food deficit riots politically. I expect them to win because their support is overwhelming. Saudi Arabia backs Mubarak with WORDS, but I don't trust the Wahhabites: never trust a Wahhabite, they operate with a hidden agenda. They very much favor an islamist party.
The current situation can get threatening for the US as well: we should remind ourselves of what happened in Iran when Ayyatollah Khomeiny took over from Sjah Pahlevi.
BTW, Egypt has lots of Sphinxes, one big and lots of small, and they have indeed all lost body parts due to old age.
CNBC Is Right: America, We Have a Serious Problem [View article]
I don't get it: if you increase the amount of debt (deficit), you monetize that debt, and the amount of your commodities stay the same (they can't be artificially increased), what else does this cause except inflation, low (negative) interest rates, huge Carry Trade phenomena, misallocation of money in asset bubbles abroad (I don't see any Housing Market Price rising in the USA) and a lot of lack of confidence in our own currency.
But sure, Cullen must be new age to get this all.
Lessons From 5 Years Of Economic Crisis [View article]
Iceland by referendum blankly refused to pay back its debts to the UK / Netherlands and thus exported its problems.
Try to imagine all debtors from all over the world refusing to pay back their debts, a strategy you and 19 others apparently seem to advocate. How would that turn out, you think ?
Investors Take Heed: Population Growth, Not Upheaval, Remains Egypt's Greatest Challenge [View article]
Especially when people are poorly educated, these threaths can become worrisome.
In fact, Mubarak now is a victim of having done too much for his country: had he not cared for infrastructure, water supply, good housing, hygiene, there wouldn't have been such a pop. explosion. I fear a Malthusian crisis is around the corner.
U.S. Energy Policy Is Responsible for Unrest in Egypt [View article]
Well, what I think is that the situation in N.AFrica/Middle East has very little to do with oil/energy, but alot with food.
This upheaval we see in Tunisia and Egypt/Jordan... is about food-prices, not about energy-prices.
People are starving from HUNGER there, not from not having no petrol for their cars. In Cairo you see cars running during the curfew as if oil were free. My Egyptian friend Hasan el-Hashiri who worked for the Maktab el-Hazar wrote me a few days ago that even he as a fomer high ranked civil servant found it hard to pay for his daily food.
Therefore, Michael, your whole article is irrelevant. Not US energy policy is responsable for the mess in N.Africa/the Middle East, but USDA policy is:
www.marketskeptics.com...
By foolishly shorting food prices in 2009/2010, the USDA created a huge worldwide food deficit. And this is only the beginning. If you carefully read Eric's article (I don't understand why Americans aren't any better informed about their own Governmental mismanagement), you will understand that the peak of the food deficit should happen before the new harvests arrive (meaning end of October). Hopefully, these will be rich at last.
BTW, your only relevant point concerns US ethanol policy: when there is global food shortage, its is a criminal offence to promote a technique that decreases the acreage used for food.
The First Stage of Inflation Has Already Hit, Next Up Is the Currency Collapse [View article]
I see no positive result from American stimulus in American economy: look at the charts of unemployment, housing, Trade deficit...
The world has been pulled out of a Great Recession by the dramatic plunge of oil prices and by positive measures of China, the only country who has the means (reserves) to do so.
When the US started QE, they created inflation since QE was not backed by substantial reserves, on the contrary.
It's Time for the Irish People to Rise [View article]
Apparently, one can never rise high enough.
Rethinking Gold Asset Allocations For 2013 [View article]
The fact is there won't be an alternative.
Bonds ? I guess you fancy negative rates.
Stocks ? I foresee a tsunami of earnings erosion reports coming due to austerity, higher taxes, less consumption. I even won't mention the fiscal cliff or the European mess (yesterday 4 big Greek banks reported they need another € 28 billion to survive).
Everyone with brains knows only gold, being nobody's debt will survive. Why you think Brazil, S. Korea, Russia, the Philipines, China, Indonesia, India... have been tanking so heavily recently ?
But you are right on one point: in the West unsophisticated people sell their gold out of necessity and in the East they buy it. Gold follows wealth.
End Of An Era For Gold Investors [View article]
Yes, but that is going to change according to M. Allen. This time is different !
Thank GDP It's Friday - Fundamentals Finally Matter [View article]
"Paul Volcker fixed what?"
Well, for one thing, Paul Volcker fixed the inflation and by doing so, he laid the foundations of the next goldilocks period. Has it never struck you that an economy needs capital to develop ?
It's not by endless consumption that we are going to fix our problems. The only thing that we fix now by over consuming, is the Chinese economy.
All Reagan did after he sent Volcker home, was using up the reserves that had been formed in the previous period, just like Bush did with the reserves that Clinton had laid aside.
Nothing difficult to create prosperity then: you just have to use the riches that your predecessor has been assiduously building up and dumb people will accord you the title of benefactor, whatever debt mess you leave behind for the next generation.
Look at current US Trade Deficit Figures and use your brain.
Papering Over The Gold Standard's Flaws [View article]
Knowing our history, one should point out that economic growth in the late thirties was only achieved through large leveraging and national re-armament campains. Is it that we want ?
What is also often forgotten is that the large debts our economies had to carry after WW II were only wept out by the strong inflation period of the sixties. Is it that we want ?
What James does not seem to understand is that a gold standard is good for maintaining a slight deflationary environment, while a fiat money standard is bound for inflation. The lure of printing paper money is high in democracies.
A light deflation should not be demonized. A large part of the 19th century actually has been deflationary and yet, there was progress. International trade was automatically balanced with the gold standard. The problem with a gold standard only occurs when there is gold shortage, as was the case in the 16th-17th centuries, hence the notion of monetary hunger (comparable to nowadays "credit crunch").
Of course the very idea of having to live in a deflationary society seems horrible. Trade Unions, politicians, Retail Bankers..., they all would have trouble to survive because they live on promises.
Today in Commodities: Fighting Against the Dollar [View article]
They simply don't get it. And yet, it's very simple: it's game over for lots of fiat currencies.
Precious Metals Whacked by Grim Goldilocks [View article]
I agree with most if not all of the above article except I have my doubts about the above sentence.
Someone who buys physical PMs has a tendency to keep what he/she acquired. After all, it's been acquired with redundant money one has no need of getting back hastily.
Knowing that the PMs price plunge has been initially motioned by derivatives, one has to bear in mind that time going by, the price will adjust according to the physical market.
Moreover, once the old spectre of Sovereign default will be hot issue again (March 11 is election day in Ireland), uncertainty will be back.
And there's another topic: US figures might indeed look less ugly, but these are nominal figures. What if someone gave them real inflation corrected ?
Once people figure that out, PMs might resurge.
Is Gold at $1000 Overpriced? [View article]
"Michael's poetry and essays grace many web sites, newspapers, journals and magazines throughout the world. He is a prominent speaker on health and wellness maintenance, stress eradication, wealth creation and development, authentic happiness and inspirational poetry."
I guess this article can be catalogued among Michael's poetry.
What to Expect From Gold Prices in 2011 [View article]
Articles like these make me laugh. For the record, I'll give S. Authority these:
finance.yahoo.com/news...
marketforceanalysis.co...
How desperate a shorter on gold can be to produce such b.s.