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filipo

filipo
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  • GLD: Sell While You Still Have A Chance [View article]
    Excellent advice, I would indeed sell untrustworthy GLD and buy physical gold instead.
    Oct 26 03:17 AM | 36 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Potential Whipsaw Ahead [View article]
    So, in your view, gold can go either way, if I correctly understand.
    Nothing new there.
    Jul 7 07:43 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Egypt Should Matter to Investors [View article]
    Yes, I.T., these are interesting times.
    Maybe I know Egypt a little better than you do. I used to work there for over 3 years in the seventies and still have a few Egyptian friends with whom I correspond on a more or less regular basis.
    In the seventies Egypt had a population of ca. 40m. Now, it has 80m. Such an exponential increase calls for problems, like housing, food supply, education...
    The current revolution that we see is extremely dangerous for the region, meaning Israel. Egypt was more or less the sole Arab partner, Israel could rely on. If this would change when theocracy would be installed in Egypt, God knows what would ensue. The fundamentalist Party of Islamic Brotherhood is the driving force behind the current events. They exploit the food deficit riots politically. I expect them to win because their support is overwhelming. Saudi Arabia backs Mubarak with WORDS, but I don't trust the Wahhabites: never trust a Wahhabite, they operate with a hidden agenda. They very much favor an islamist party.
    The current situation can get threatening for the US as well: we should remind ourselves of what happened in Iran when Ayyatollah Khomeiny took over from Sjah Pahlevi.
    BTW, Egypt has lots of Sphinxes, one big and lots of small, and they have indeed all lost body parts due to old age.
    Jan 30 03:11 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CNBC Is Right: America, We Have a Serious Problem [View article]
    "And we all understand that this debt and deficit is not a cancer. In fact, in a balance sheet recession it is a great benefit to this economy. And we certainly understand that it will not destroy this great nation."

    I don't get it: if you increase the amount of debt (deficit), you monetize that debt, and the amount of your commodities stay the same (they can't be artificially increased), what else does this cause except inflation, low (negative) interest rates, huge Carry Trade phenomena, misallocation of money in asset bubbles abroad (I don't see any Housing Market Price rising in the USA) and a lot of lack of confidence in our own currency.

    But sure, Cullen must be new age to get this all.
    Dec 1 03:50 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    wyo,
    You are right: that economic recovery the author speaks of is so "strong", that the G20 needs to inject another $3T into the global economy.
    Someone is pulling our leg.

    The author's argument:
    "The Chinese exports do far more to improve the standard of living and productivity of the Nation importing from China than the people of China benefit from having a stockpile of gold sitting in a bank."
    doesn't convince me either: I have the impression it's the other way around: the US gets poorer from importing large quantities of Chinese junk and the Chinese are wise enough to invest part of the reserves that are thus created in gold.
    Feb 23 03:35 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Yair,
    Gold is "another currency", it's the only universal currency.
    Feb 23 05:01 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dr. Doom Has Gold Going Below $1,000: Why His Thesis Is Spot On [View article]
    Very candid article once again, Robert Wagner, but why didn't you write it in Chinese or Hindi ?
    We, Westerners, are not concerned since we only own 2 1/2 oz. of gold (our wedding ring). You want us to sell our wedding ring ?
    Next time, you should address yourself directly to the Chinese and the Indians in their language: they are the ones who make your schemes fail.
    Jun 4 05:48 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From 5 Years Of Economic Crisis [View article]
    Left,
    Iceland by referendum blankly refused to pay back its debts to the UK / Netherlands and thus exported its problems.
    Try to imagine all debtors from all over the world refusing to pay back their debts, a strategy you and 19 others apparently seem to advocate. How would that turn out, you think ?
    Oct 11 04:15 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Take Heed: Population Growth, Not Upheaval, Remains Egypt's Greatest Challenge [View article]
    Yes, out of control growing populations are a threath, for themselves, the neighbouring countries, the world.
    Especially when people are poorly educated, these threaths can become worrisome.
    In fact, Mubarak now is a victim of having done too much for his country: had he not cared for infrastructure, water supply, good housing, hygiene, there wouldn't have been such a pop. explosion. I fear a Malthusian crisis is around the corner.
    Feb 3 06:26 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Policy Is Responsible for Unrest in Egypt [View article]
    "What do you think?"
    Well, what I think is that the situation in N.AFrica/Middle East has very little to do with oil/energy, but alot with food.
    This upheaval we see in Tunisia and Egypt/Jordan... is about food-prices, not about energy-prices.
    People are starving from HUNGER there, not from not having no petrol for their cars. In Cairo you see cars running during the curfew as if oil were free. My Egyptian friend Hasan el-Hashiri who worked for the Maktab el-Hazar wrote me a few days ago that even he as a fomer high ranked civil servant found it hard to pay for his daily food.

    Therefore, Michael, your whole article is irrelevant. Not US energy policy is responsable for the mess in N.Africa/the Middle East, but USDA policy is:
    www.marketskeptics.com...
    By foolishly shorting food prices in 2009/2010, the USDA created a huge worldwide food deficit. And this is only the beginning. If you carefully read Eric's article (I don't understand why Americans aren't any better informed about their own Governmental mismanagement), you will understand that the peak of the food deficit should happen before the new harvests arrive (meaning end of October). Hopefully, these will be rich at last.
    BTW, your only relevant point concerns US ethanol policy: when there is global food shortage, its is a criminal offence to promote a technique that decreases the acreage used for food.
    Jan 30 02:27 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The First Stage of Inflation Has Already Hit, Next Up Is the Currency Collapse [View article]
    Wrong.
    I see no positive result from American stimulus in American economy: look at the charts of unemployment, housing, Trade deficit...
    The world has been pulled out of a Great Recession by the dramatic plunge of oil prices and by positive measures of China, the only country who has the means (reserves) to do so.
    When the US started QE, they created inflation since QE was not backed by substantial reserves, on the contrary.
    Dec 17 03:27 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time for the Irish People to Rise [View article]
    And I was in the opinion the Irish had already risen when they decided to build themselves huge new sophisticated houses with German money.
    Apparently, one can never rise high enough.
    Nov 12 06:03 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS: Gold upside breakout hopes dashed; platinum too [View news story]
    Spot on, Doug.
    I think UBS must have been betting on the wrong horse to utter such a nonsense.
    Two articles have caught my attention this afternoon:
    1/
    http://reut.rs/Kne56u

    2/
    http://bloom.bg/1hyJPSm

    There's something moving, it appears, and the current spike of gold to over $1,250/oz seems to be related to these news items.

    UBS's commentators might easily be compared to Iraq's Chemical Ali, remember ?
    Jan 17 01:53 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Is Right On Gold Investing [View article]
    Mart,
    I agree with you but there is one thing one should consider and that's the immense importance of the USD as a reference currency. It goes far beyond its importance as a pure domestic currency.
    It has been repeatedly said that the rest of the world pays for US expenses. In a way that is true.
    What happens with a reference currency is the following mechanism: other countries use the r.c. to trade and inter-trade. Hence, there's always a huge need for that r.c. Hence the country that issues that r.c. can print large amounts of money without causing a ripple of inflation on the national front.
    It also enables that country to run large current trade deficits without causing the implosion of its currency. On the other hand, other countries who trade and use that r.c. have to run large current trade surpluses or their local currency would collapse.

    Now, let's call a horse a horse. The US run large current trade deficits and yet the USD stays firm. They also run large current account deficits and create large amounts of money, and yet, the USD stays strong.
    A part of that newly created money is used to rig the markets, for instance the gold market, by making shorting bets on Comex. If losses are made on these bets, that doesn't necessarily negatively affect the US taxpayer (as I myself was convinced of until recently). It does affect though the value of the USD, but since the use of the USD is so globally spread, the impact of newly created US dollars is almost obsolete. Adding USD85bn/month to the global heap of USD's hardly represents 0,05% of that heap.
    Fluctuations of the USD have little to do with those monthly injections, but with speculative operations of large FX traders.
    Shorting gold operations on Comex of any size have been therefore been solely executed by the Fed and/or befriended banking institutions. Europe has not been involved.
    The reason is that, although gold is not Europe Central Bankers' best friend, it is mainly the Fed who has so much to defend: the USD status as a r.c.

    There are two conditions to keep the USD in that comfortable condition:
    1. International trade has to keep on using the USD as a r.c.
    2. The gold physical market must be kept alive without any short squeeze happening and without the price of gold to soar.

    If those conditions can be met with, inflation will stay relatively contained.
    Nov 1 02:34 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rethinking Gold Asset Allocations For 2013 [View article]
    Rummel, the question isn't whether gold will (under)perform the next year(s).
    The fact is there won't be an alternative.
    Bonds ? I guess you fancy negative rates.
    Stocks ? I foresee a tsunami of earnings erosion reports coming due to austerity, higher taxes, less consumption. I even won't mention the fiscal cliff or the European mess (yesterday 4 big Greek banks reported they need another € 28 billion to survive).
    Everyone with brains knows only gold, being nobody's debt will survive. Why you think Brazil, S. Korea, Russia, the Philipines, China, Indonesia, India... have been tanking so heavily recently ?
    But you are right on one point: in the West unsophisticated people sell their gold out of necessity and in the East they buy it. Gold follows wealth.
    Dec 28 03:32 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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