EtoileBrilliant

17 Comments

    • Seeking the Fix That Will Finally Work [view article]
      Banks won't lend to each other? Let's start the process of ultimate disintermediation - take the banks out of the equation and let the central banks lend directly to the borrowers. What worries me is when Central Banks stop lending to each other. We've already seen the first signs of it with Iceland. Wait until it happens with Italy, UK or even Uncle Sam Oct 10 01:23 AM
    • Sentiment Overview: Cash is King [view article]
      I held cash in my Internax trading account. On Friday after Fortis' share price dropped 26% (the JV partner in Internax who holds my cash) I telephoned my dealer about my concerns. If Fortis goes bankrupt, the stocks are in your name and only your first Euro 30k are insured.

      Cash is NOT king when there is no where to hide it. I moved it into a diversified government bond fund for last resort.       Sep 30 08:00 AM
    • Cresud: Buying Into Argentina Agriculture [view article]
      Like the fundamentals but find it difficult to ignore the event risk this stock has in terms of political interference. Argentinia seems to be getting back to its bad old ways, while Brazil is romping ahead. Aug 05 04:26 AM
    • Don't Try to Fix the Rating-Agency Model: Get Rid of It [view article]
      One small problem, Basle II. After 5 years of negotiating and another 5 years of implentation, you can't get away from the fact that ratings underpin the whole concept of bank regulatory capital. Bring on Basle III (2018?) Jun 26 07:30 AM
    • Is Brazil 'Investment-Grade' for Individual Investors? [view article]
      iShares provide a pure Brazilian ETF play (EWZ). It claims to mimic 85% of the total capitalisation of Brazilan equity market. Good article in this morning's FT about Brazil debt new issue launched tighter than Berkshire Hathaway. That's what I call an improvement in the credit score!!! May 15 03:25 PM
    • Could the U.S. Lose Its AAA Rating? [view article]
      Sir,

      I am a Wiki-plaguerist, check out this link:

      en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      I hope this helps.

      EB       Apr 16 04:31 AM
    • Spinning Deutsche's Loan Sale [view article]
      Great article Felix, I've been scratching my head on the Deutsche Bank versus Goldmans conundrum.

      On the same day, Deutsche Bank sold or planned to sale €36 billion of loans "in the hope of taking advantage of a recent slight improvement in debt market conditions" as Goldmans sold parts of their portfolio at 65 cents in the dollar.

      Me thinks, somebody's not being totally truthful.       Apr 16 04:10 AM
    • Could the U.S. Lose Its AAA Rating? [view article]
      Eddy, I can see where your analysis is coming from but I would have to comment that its a little intro-spective. Whilst there is a good argument that domestic lenders (or investors) would be more or less unmoved by a downgrade of the US, I'm inclined to think that external investors might have an alternative view.

      Given that the US is the world's largest debtor nation, I'm absolutely certain that a downgrade would result in a parallel shift in the yield curve. The benchmark might become the German Bund or more likely one of the Supras (although their ratings might be affected given the contributions the US make to their balance sheet).

      Regardless, of whom takes on the mantel of the provider of the "risk free rate of return", this will only lead to a further weakening in dollar (maybe even the final death throes everyone has been anticipating).

      In the long term, I'm actually very bullish about the USD. However, I'm keeping my money in other currencies until this particular alcoholic has reached the step one of the twelve step programme ("We admitted we were powerless over "debt" - that our lives had become unmanageable")       Apr 16 03:42 AM
    • The U.S. Dollar: A Contrarian View [view article]
      I wasn't aware that China actually bought the USD, my feeling is that WalMart dumps USD on them as a trading currency. Apr 14 01:07 PM
    • Apple's 10 Million iPhone Target [view article]
      10 million by 2008, no problem. But on what terms and how will the terms affect earnings? This would help us get a better idea of share price. Mar 10 06:56 AM
    • Apple's iPhone 2.0 'Bigger than the Personal Computer' [view article]
      Apple's iPhone 2.0 'Bigger than the Personal Computer".

      What kind of PC is that? I've just read another article on Seeking Alpha that says SDK can only run one application at a time. The last time I did that was on a pre-Windows DOS 2.0 Compaq in 1986.

      Can somebody tell me who to believe on this one?       Mar 07 10:34 AM
    • Sony Ericsson, Microsoft to Offer WinMobile Phones [view article]
      This is very significant from Ebay's point of view. One of the big drawbacks of Skype is the fact that it cannot be run directly on Symbian OS (it can be done rather clumsily through a client such as Fring). Many people would like to have Skype integrated into their cell handset rather than have a separate handset for Skype. Whilst this is by no means the last obstacle to cheap/free mobile calls it is a significant step. Feb 11 03:38 AM
    • Earnings Preview: Moody's Corporation [view article]
      In the long term, their revenue will hold up (Structured Finance revenues must have completely dried up over the last few quarters). Under Basle II, they are almost guaranteed cash flows from issuers requiring ratings. My doubt on this name is the "event risk" of a class action lawsuit. Its' never been successful before but I can't help thinking that the SEC is looking for a fall guy and the rating agencies look good for that role.

      Interestingly, with all the talk yesterday regarding the rating agencies getting out of the field of advisory work, I wonder whether Moody's might sell or float KMV. RiskMetrics (which is almost identical) had a very good pop on its open when it launched its IPO last week.

      If Warren Buffet really wakes up each morning with a "spring in his step", he going to be reaching for his crutches if this one sinks much further! He's down over $500m on this name alone.       Feb 07 03:55 AM
    • Only Gold Can Replace the Greenback As the World's Reserve Currency [view article]
      Get real! Trichet only has to put his hand into his crotch to realise he's got what it takes to be a Central Banker. If Bernake does the same - nada!

      Based on the buckling Bernanke's peformance this week. I know what currency I would like to hold my reserves in.       Jan 25 02:55 PM
    • Apple Should Increasingly Dominate Key CE Markets [view article]
      AAPL down 14% after hours. Don't they know that this is going to be the #1 phonemaker in 2008???? Jan 22 04:45 PM
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