Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Fire Away  [View instapost]
    Thanks Joe. I typically don't play the "pain plays" just due to the natural variability of the individual psyche and tolerance, but I have a friend who has FM symptoms in CFS and he likes this play and thinks results will be good (as do I). CFS could also be a beneficial indication of TNX-102SL down the road. I feel quite certain of that. Most people with CFS have such poor sleep quality and it causes a lot of pain and poor quality of life; very similar to FM. If successful, I'm sure off-label usage could be substantial.

    I really like the Merck connection here as well with Cymbalta going off patent this year. If we see some really positive results come out of this trial, WOW! How could Merck not approach TNXP with a blow-away offer? Plus, Merck has the resources to bring TNX-102SL to market faster and also push the PTSD trial along and start with other indications such as CFS. Through in ETTH and good grief, the question becomes what is the intrinsic value of TNXP vs. the potential value in terms of acquisition. I'll be honest (just the kind of guy I am), when I first saw the numbers you were throwing around I just shook my head and used my own conservative price targets, but the more I researched and got my own mind thinking, the more I started to reach numbers similar to yours. Not that the market will agree, but in terms of valuation, success in the P2b/3 for FM puts an acquisition value of 100 pps ~ 1B MC IMO. Of course, failure would be a crushing blow similar to RGDO (which currently trades at 50% of cash!). The market has been punishing failure in SC Bios lately, and even grown more limited in their rewards of success (KERX, OREX, et al). However, there are still the PBYI's of the world out there where the market realizes the ultimate potential.

    Best of luck my friend! Exciting times ahead. Oh, one last question (if you care to disclose). How much skin do you have in this one in terms of % portfolio?

    Take care,
    Sep 14, 2014. 03:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fire Away  [View instapost]
    Joe, appreciate all your hard work on TNXP. I'll admit that I'm a short term swing trader and binary player that's had my eye on TNXP for the past several months and looking like it may be "go time" now. I'm just doing some last minute deep DD trying to find the red flag as I always do with any stocks I play. I'm pretty good at picking up on things that many don't and I haven't come across anything yet, aside from the obvious inherent risks. So, it looks like Seth has been firm with a Q4 data release, as recent as the R&R conference last Wednesday. Are you still confident in top line being released by mid October?
    Sep 14, 2014. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regado's Revolixys Revolution Meets With Resistance  [View article]
    I'm with glorysk87 on this debate. The company would have NEVER voluntarily paused enrollment if not for the intervention of the DSMB. How could they? They are blinded to the data. The DSMB felt this was such a serious event that they jumped in while the company had enrolled 3234 pts and the scheduled event was to take place after pt #3250 had been enrolled. Really? Does this mean they couldn't wait to enroll 16 more pts? Sorry, but that in and of itself raises an eyebrow for me and is a CLEAR red flag. Granted, there were 3 out of 640 SAEs in the P2, but those exclusions are factored in to the P3.

    We're all blind in this event, even RGDO. Only the DSMB and FDA will have access to the unblinded data. This is the ultra high risk / high reward.
    Jul 12, 2014. 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cynapsus' Oral Parkinson's Candidate Is Undervalued  [View article]
    The bioequivalence data has me more concerned than anything. Just due to that alone, I think CYNAF is fairly valued at it's current levels. There's still a lot to be proven, several studies to be completed and a lot of time between now and the goal line. Any setbacks bring CYNAF to ZERO. This company's entire pipeline consists of only 1 drug in the early stages of reformulation. A 50M MC is a fair valuation. High risk / high reward. It is a nice story stock if all plays out though. Just based on technicals alone, might be worth a small short term position.
    Jul 12, 2014. 04:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Neuralstem And Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics: The Race To Treat ALS  [View article]
    Things are moving VERY quickly with BCLI since your post JK. This little company is on a mission and appears to have a favorable relationship with the FDA already. With Adam Feuerstein's latest target being CUR, I'd have to give the short term edge to BCLI. CUR does have NSI-189 results coming out in a couple / few weeks, but P2 results are years away. The primary value drivers for both companies lie in ALS. With BCLI's first P2 patient being dosed this week, that only puts them 9 months behind CUR in terms of P2 dosing. However, BCLI's P2 is randomized and placebo controlled whereas CURs P2 is open label. BCLI's P2 is also 48 patients where CUR is only 15. CUR may have the 9 month advantage as far as P2, but BCLI has essentially already ran a variation of CUR's P2 for dose escalation and is basically running their P2 similar to what CUR would run for a P3. Taking those points into account and solely focusing on ALS, I give the nod to BCLI. The last point to consider is BCLI's conference on 6/10. There is a lot of speculation that they will re-structure for uplisting. They announced this intent in a PR on 5/29. Typically, this will consist of a R/S which depending on ratio may have a short term negative effect on pps, but should quickly rebound. It will be crucial to see how this all plays out and how it will effect: market cap, shares outstanding, volume and share price.
    Jun 6, 2014. 12:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Idera: A Compelling Biotech Pick For March  [View article]
    Data is not due out by the end of the month. They have revised that statement and now forecast the data to remain blinded until the extension study is completed. Data can now be expected by July.
    Mar 7, 2014. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cytokinetics: 2014 Will Bring Critical Data Readouts On Tirasemtiv And Omecamtiv Mecarbil  [View article]
    Hi Smith, thank you for another well articulated article. Do you recall what the Phase 1 values were for Tirasemtiv? Also, CYTK seems to be well ahead of CUR on the ALS front, what's your thoughts (if all data positive from both companies) on how far in advance CYTK will be ahead of CUR in ALS on the market?

    Thanks in advance,
    Nov 3, 2013. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xbox One Situation Potentially Not HUMArous For Microsoft  [View article]
    Kenny, sorry about your VICL loss. I'll throw you a bone and give you my greatest pick since SRPT and ACAD. Check out can thank me later when we race our Ferraris.
    Aug 23, 2013. 03:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hydrogenics plummets after earnings miss  [View news story]
    Hi Joe. If you're able to finish up the IMUC article this weekend, how long does it typically take to publish? And if you don't mind me asking, how much content do you have so far, i.e. length? It's great to have a reputable publisher with interest in IMUC. It's finally starting to get the attention it deserves.
    Aug 1, 2013. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Am You See  [View instapost]
    Thanks for the update Joe and good luck with the article. I'm sure you're going to knock it out of the park. Your articles are very well articulated, precise, factual and respected. It's a shame that most people don't comprehend the amount of time and effort it takes to write an article of your caliber. Keep up the good work!
    Jul 31, 2013. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As A Frustrated Owner Of Vringo Stock, What Should I Do?  [View article]

    You are one of the few "real" people on these boards. Most are dreamers of fortunes and sunken treasures never to be found. Yet, they keep hold of this unrelenting hope that a stock has to rise because they wish it to.

    Pete Harmisan
    Dec 7, 2012. 01:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Audaciously Reveals The Holy Grail And Emerges A Buy  [View article]
    Tufenk, your article stimulates me like watching grass grow. Seeing as how you are new at this, I'll be nice......"learn" today's market and throw away your college-day books. It's a new world my friend and you need to "catch up".
    Nov 30, 2012. 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment