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  • Netflix is the new cable for millennials [View news story]
    I think netflix is great and gets stronger every year as it adds more and more content. However, Marco Polo is a truly terrible show and I cant possibly imagine it brought $90 million in revenue to offset the budget costs. Maybe a third of that, so really they only "wasted" like 1% of their revenues on a bad show. Big whoop. They will most likely learn from their mistakes (or was it?) and get better.
    Jan 10, 2015. 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hooper Holmes: A Fast-Growing, Health And Wellness Pure-Play With Significant Upside [View article]
    Probably, the CRL agreement does have a take out provision in it. I'm also ok with them using their cash and issuing debt to acquire a $15-$20M company.
    They could roll up 1-2 smaller competitors in the industry. Dubois mentioned in the last CC about still using Cantor Fitzgerald as advisers. Or he might just put the cash into growth capex.
    Nov 2, 2014. 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hooper Holmes: A Fast-Growing, Health And Wellness Pure-Play With Significant Upside [View article]
    Dubois has done a great job in a short time [sold bleeding companies, real estate, relocated, reduced opex, outsourced tech, strategic partnership, new website]. I think he should sell the company for $.90 asap.
    Nov 1, 2014. 11:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aeropostale: Our Top 2014 Pick For A Unique Short Covering Rally [View article]
    I went to the mall yesterday since I knew there would be a lot value items due to clearance discounting and because I'm jewish I didn't get any Christmas presents so I felt like treating myself a bit. My first stop was ARO I spent $75 purchasing -- 3 long sleeve t shirts, 2 gym/workout pants and 1 pair of jeans. The long sleeves were discounted to $6 from $30 and I think the jeans were about $20 and gym sweats around $18. Considering the quality of the clothes, this was a heck of a deal. Their online website has similar prices I would recommend checking it out.

    This article brings up a good point about the transition to non-logo clothing. Yesterday I was telling the sales associate how I didn't really like the long sleeves with the logos (running down the sides vertically--wtf?) and she mentioned how that's a common trend the company is fixing then proceeded to show me the non-logos that I purchased. The store was busy and you could tell they were looking to clear their inventory far more than the other stores I visited (Buckle, Macys, Express).

    I think the company might be clearing inventory for a private equity buyout (bring in cash quicker to payoff the LBO?) or to just refresh their product line faster.
    Jan 9, 2014. 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Elon Musk defends Tesla as feds start probe [View news story]
    I'm guessing analysts will have to make some minor revisions to their 2020 FCF models.
    Nov 19, 2013. 08:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vocera: An Incredibly Risky Growth Story [View article]
    Good article, but this stock seems like a short. They are selling glorified overpriced walkie-talkies to an industry focusing on cutting budgets. High competition, little barriers and no insider purchasing.
    Bulls should really examine their thesis because this feels like a $10 stock in a year.
    Sep 3, 2013. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella: Channel Checks Point To Earnings Miss, Significant Downside [View article]
    I've spent some time researching this company and thought this was a well written article.

    Readers should understand that "Regarded Solutions" is incorrect in his assessment of AMBA's revenues. Not only is he wrong, but he belittles the author's analysis in a condescending way when in fact he is the one who should be researching more diligently.

    It's a fact that AMBA's growth this year is being driven by the retail sales of the Gopro Hero 3. It's a wonderful product that is probably the number one complement to smartphones right now. But if your channel checks indicate demand weakness, then likely inventory has built up and company won't derive anymore growth revenue. It's interesting because management in the CC said hero 3 demand should be just fine during holiday season of 2013.

    Not sure who to believe but it seems weird Chicony would just flat out reveal that demand is weak.
    Aug 26, 2013. 04:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bargain-basement Buffett: After five years of climbing prices to win the annual "lunch with the Oracle of Omaha" auction - last year's winner paid $3.46M - the winning bid this year was a relatively measly $1,000,100. According to eBay there were 106 bids; the winner bidder is as yet unidentified. [View news story]
    Not even the 1% wants to spend money nowadays.
    Jun 8, 2013. 10:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • April Nonfarm Payrolls: +165K vs. consensus +145K, 138K previous (revised from +88K). Unemployment rate 7.5% vs. consensus 7.6%, 7.6% previous. [View news story]
    This is great news, we have come a long way from 9% in 2011. Bernanke has done a wonderful job finding ways to increase employment and production levels. Hopefully the market recognizes this and gets us up to 2000 S&P by year end.
    May 3, 2013. 08:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Value Destruction, The Great Depression, And Market Vulnerability [View article]
    HJ, thank you for the informative article. I believe the earliest sign of declining corporate profit margins just came from FDX's recent quarterly report. Their revenue growth was not able to offset the increase of expenses from "hidden" inflation. FDX had a "purchased transportation" expense that increased % higher Q/Q than Y/Y. The only reason why I could see low profit margin contract trucking companies raising their prices would be passing on inflation costs. However, it could be possible that these companies have increased pricing power from structural or cyclical changes since ones like SWFT and JBHT are trending well.

    I also saw a similar report take place with Cintas (CTAS). Cintas cleans and delivers oily blue-collar uniforms and business mats for companies. It appears inflation also caused their servicing costs to go higher Q/Q than Y/Y. Just because expenses rise higher Q/Q than Y/Y doesn't mean inflation, it could be seasonal. But still, if net income and margins are lower Q/Q than it shouldn't be good for the stock price.

    I think the weak companies this year will be ones (this sounds obvious) who basically get slammed from rising expenses that can't be offset with revenue growth due to weak demand or just too much inflation expense. This could end up being a lot of companies with expenses that pertain to basic service, chemicals, etc.
    Mar 28, 2013. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The IMF will slash its forecast for U.S. economic growth in its next World Economic Outlook report, according to Reuters and Italian news agency ANSA. Investors should expect the U.S. economy to grow at just 1.7% in 2013, well below the historical average and 0.3% less than previously forecast. On the bright side, the IMF said last month it could cut its outlook by as much as 0.5% so, in theory, it could have been worse.  [View news story]
    Is that 1.7% nominal?

    Probably is. If you factor in 2% inflation (based on housing prices, M2 increase and current weakness in some 10-Qs) then real gdp growth will be negative.

    Mar 24, 2013. 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson: Dirt Cheap As Market Is At Peak [View article]
    Good article, I wouldn't be surprised if this company beats earnings estimates every quarter for the next year. This is a good stock being sold off by political headlines and large pension funds. Also, the current cash flows generated paint a poor picture because the company had to make large capital expenditures to meet the pent up demand. But over the next few quarters we should see improved cashflow and more repurchases to drive up the stock. I don't think it matters if Obama were to outlaw every gun they sell, they would still be able to find customers worldwide or government based (US police force)
    Mar 18, 2013. 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CommonWealth REIT Shareholders Fight For Control [View article]
    I have the same question as DrGoldin.

    What will happen to SIR? I've been holding SIR since Oct and have just added to position for the second time now. I believe SIR is undervalued (target price of $35) based on dividend, location of ownership (Hawaii, limited property) and strategy of continuing to buy office properties in America.
    Mar 4, 2013. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: The Sick Man Of Retail [View article]
    It's weird to see how poorly their performing considering I shop at JCP and am always satisfied with their products and prices.

    For the men's dress shirts, JCP is winning here. I've looked, you can't find better quality bargains at macy's, men's wearhouse, target, etc. Go to, click men -> dress shirts & ties -> look at those prices. Where else can you get $15 quality dress shirts? Not only this, but in my opinion the Stafford brand is more comfortable and durable than higher priced Van Hue or Jos A. Their suits are not bad deals either and easily comparable to the lower priced ones at men's wearhouse.

    I just don't understand how their not doing well in this area. Maybe it's a low revenue segment, lack of marketing and cyclical weakness to job market. If this company can kick up their marketing promotion towards men's professional clothing and continuing building their strength in growing areas (sephora, etc) they might be able to turn this around.

    Also, it's not fair to say the retail market is strong. JCP offers kids and teen clothing that also competes with ARO, ANF, WTSLA, AEO etc. Besides AEO (which is focusing on international growth and could surprise analysts), none of these companies are putting good numbers or forecasts.
    Feb 28, 2013. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment