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lihy70

lihy70
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  • Valuing RIM: Stop Guessing And Look At The Phone [View article]
    could be. reverse, could be also. i saw a lot of RIM subscribers are still continuing to move to iPhone/Android even if the launched date of bb10 has been confirm.
    Jan 15, 2013. 05:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing RIM: Stop Guessing And Look At The Phone [View article]
    @superfly_FR.
    Don't tell me that you don't know the number or RIM CEO didn't tell you, as an investor of RIM if you're.
    According to comscore. Currently RIM has about 9 million subscribers in US. personally, i roughly estimate the subscribers in EU(including UK) is less than 20 million. so i think about 50 ~ 60 millions current RIM subscribers are from emerging market.
    Jan 15, 2013. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing RIM: Stop Guessing And Look At The Phone [View article]
    It's a pretty fair review!
    How do you think about bb 10, comparing to Nokia luma?
    Jan 15, 2013. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Vs. Research In Motion: Only One Will Survive [View article]
    Could be 10 billion. Nokia just sold about 80 million in last quarter. per the propagation for rim, all of them should be called "Loyal" nokia users and 70% of them will upgrade to lumia...
    Jan 15, 2013. 05:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Vs. Research In Motion: Only One Will Survive [View article]
    It's 79 million according to the Q3 financial report. And the increment in emerging market already slowed down because of the competition from Nokia and lower price android devices. I predict the rim subscriber base will continue to decline in Q4 and another million loss in the most important market US even after rim has announce to launch bb 10 on Jan 30.
    Jan 15, 2013. 04:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Vs. Research In Motion: Only One Will Survive [View article]
    @hdweiner
    how much do you know about the smart phone market in China?
    Android is taking 90% market and RIM is almost no player, do you know that? Two or three major OS of smart phone are enough in China.
    Two or three major OS doesn't mean two or three manufactures. the manufactures of Android are tens in China currently.besides the two or major OS, some other OS will survivy by taking tiny market share, just as linux OS in PC.
    Jan 14, 2013. 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion: The Competition Is Falling [View article]
    @Kurt,
    I knew you're long RIM and glad to see RIM stock price is going up.
    But I think the better-than-expected Nokia final report is a good news to Nokia, not RIM. Actually I think it's a bad news to RIM. They’re competitor. Nokia had sold 9.3 Million Asha in emerging market and it's going to launch Lumina 920/820/620/Asha in more emerging market. As I said before (if you already read my instablog) that I predicted the lower price android/Nokia is starting to take over the market from RIM from q4 2012 and RIM will be kicked out from emerging market by the end of 2015. RIM currently has about 50 ~ 60 million subscribers in emerging market.
    Fortunately, RIM management team realized it and as you knew they will 6 devices to cover high/middle/low market in 2013. I think this is a real good news to RIM I heard up to now. Most of others are propaganda. Of course, you have your own reasons to believe good thing happening on Nokia will happen to RIM also.
    Did I say I was going to stop arguing… yes, I guess so. Have a good day.
    Jan 10, 2013. 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion: The Competition Is Falling [View article]
    Talk a bit about security:
    1. It can’t be denied that security is import, specially, to enterprise customer.
    2. And I think security must be 1st import feature that RIM still survives and will.
    3. How is the security on IOS/Android, comparing to BB? I only have very limit knowledge about security. But I GUESS the security is also good on IOS/Android. Because:
    a) There are billion users who are doing a lot of personal/company staffs (e.g. bank) on IOS/Android. A lot of bank have release client and allow user to trade on an iPhone/Android. Personally I didn’t hear any serious security issue.
    b) From technical aspect, I think there is nothing other company can do but Google/Apple can’t. I, personally, guess Apple/Google must have taken the security seriously. There are tons of talents in both companies. It’s very hard to believe that Apple/Google did worse job in security, comparing to RIM. By looking back the history and the product/software line developed by these two companies: iPhone/iPad/Mac/Search... I believe these two companies are the best ones in IT industry, per my personal knowledge, as a software engineer.
    4, Learned from history. Windows, widely used around the world, tens of thousands or millions of PC are affected by virus every day. But people are still using it to handle a lot of import tasks.
    5, Sometimes, it’s easy to approve a system is faster than another one. But up to now, I think no one/company is able to approve that the OS of Mac or Linux are safer than Windows. I know people feel that they do in general because fewer Mac/Linux affected virus. But Microsoft denied it and said most of hacker attack PC because it’s popular. Same logic is applied to IOS/Android, comparing to BB.
    6, I think the Android/IOS is safer than the traditional OS of PC because the apps are under the control of Google/Apple. It’s more difficult to spread virus on Apple app store or Google play store and it’s easier to monitor/control/remove the virgin apps.
    Basically, this is personal analysis about security. I don’t have any data/evidence to approve my opinions. I just through it over and share them here since I think they make scenes. I think Apple/Google did the same good job about security. I think the propagation about the security on BB is overdone. It won’t change the mind/action of most consumers and marketing trend.
    I have shared my opinions about other features below. Correct one type about 6, 9, 10
    “I know few about these three features and really want to know how they work and how people will like and are going to buy a new BB 10 because of these three features”
    Jan 10, 2013. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion: The Competition Is Falling [View article]
    January 30 2013 is not the final date. it's just event date and nothing in fact will be changed except the expectation. you need to wait to Q2 financial report in June or Q3 report in Dec to find out what happened and will.
    Jan 10, 2013. 04:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion: The Competition Is Falling [View article]
    @Kurt
    #1,
    can you please send me the link of the original report made by Gus Papageorgiou (Scotia Capital), if possible? I want to know how this analyst figured out the '70%' before I believe in it because there is a big contrast between '70%' and my personal feeling (included other data I have checked).

    #2, Kurt, I would like to repeat my personal prediction again: I think RIM is going to lose another millions in Q4. And I also think that 80 million subscribers in Q2 is the peak and Q3 is the turnarounds from increment to decrement for RIM. Personally I don't have the exact data to approve it. But just let people know that could be possible.

    I have put more analysis and data in my instablog and did as much investigation as I can up to now. And will continue to monitor RIM but it's time to stop arguing for me :-).

    Kurt, I feel you’re a good man since you're patient to answer each question. Give you my best wish!
    Jan 10, 2013. 04:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion: The Competition Is Falling [View article]
    Very good summary! It really helps me to understand BB10 more. Because I will always be scared if I knew a few or missed some import features of the product/service of a company after I'm long/short its equity. Thanks a lot. Here are my opinions and questions:
    #1,
    It's a really good feature. My concern is maybe there is only a few people who type with multi language at the same. Usually most of people just type with one (native language) or two (native language and English). And the feature has supported by free app or paid app on IOS and android. Anyway, personally I like it. Just not sure how good it is to type the other language (Chinese/Japanese...), except English.

    #2, 3, 4
    Personally, i don't care too much. Currently I’m using Google Nexus 4. I think Chrome browser is faster enough (at least I never feel it's slow). And the Chrome is very easy to use. Did you try it? I’m not sure if flush is supported on Android. I can visit most video website (youtube/...).

    #5
    I like the Time Shift 8mp camera. And I also like panorama and Sphere. Did you try these features on Android?

    #6, 9, 10
    I really know how they work and how people will like and by a new BB 10 because of these three features.

    #7, 8
    Personally, i really think they don’t matter.

    Security is a feature which can be discussed as much as you want. People may have different opinions on it.

    As an investor, I have two questions?
    1, do you any data or evidence that RIM has stopped the subscriber loss in US and how many (or percentage) current RIM will upgrade to BB10, as what you're thinking/do?
    Heins said “We believe the company has stabilized…”, but it’s hard to believe it for me. RIM has lost millions subscribers in US in quarter 3 and will lose another millions in quarter 4, by the data I checked.

    2, do you have any data that how many new smart phone user or existing android/iPhone/windows phone users will buy BB10?

    Appreciated any data which I believe in most for long/short an equity.
    Jan 8, 2013. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing RIM [View article]
    Who may buy RIM potentially at present?
    1. Lenovo/Huawei/ZTE… Can’t offer 10 billion dollars to buy a company. Even banker loan them money. The Canada/US government won’t approve the deal.
    2. Japanese manufactures (Sony/Panasonic…) are very busy, busy saving themselves.
    3. Korean/Taiwan manufactures, Samsung repeat ‘no’. It’s developing its own OS with Intel and Japanese telecom. LG/HTC are facing a lot pressure from Samsung. I don’t think LG/HTC think can compete with Apple/Google/Microsoft from OS aspect. They will still co-operate with Microsoft/Google and focus on their own hardware manufacture.
    4. Apple/Microsoft/Google already has its own Mobile OS. It will be interesting if they buy a new mobile OS from competitor.
    5. HPQ is not a 1oo billion company anymore. If the board/CEO dare to offer another 10 billion to buy a company again, I guess they will be fired by staff/shareholder right way.
    6. Dell/Oracle is not HP. Michael Dell/Larry Ellison is not Leo Apotheker. They are smart. They only buy the company who can make money or help them to make money.
    7. Intel is facing pressure from ARM chip. Per history, it looks Intel is still focus on its chip. And only has a few of interesting to develop its own OS, instead of buying new OS. IBM is most focus on the backend system integration.
    Personally, I think IBM/Intel/Dell/Oracle are the companies who can offer 10 billion dollars to buy another company. Since 10 billion is very big number. It much be clear and evident that RIM is worth the amount, additionally, the buyer has to figure out if or how compete with Apple/Google/Micosoft.
    Value RIM from subscriber base aspect:
    79 million subscribers, 950 million revenue from service which is possible to make profit for RIM.
    If we assume 10 million subscribers in US and 10 million subscribers in Canada/UK/EU and the average monthly fee is $10, the service revenue from these regions is about 600 million. That means the monthly fee for other 60 million subscribers in emerging market is about $2. $200 ~ $300 smart phone with $2 monthly fee is competitive two or one year ago because the price of iPhone and most of Android is higher than $300. Things start to change from the end of 2012, the android manufactures and Nokia start to provide good phone with lower price < $300, some could be $200 or $100, or even lower than $100. I don’t think the current BB devices or BB10 can’t compete with those lower price android/Nokia smart phone in emerging market. The big difference between subscriber in emerging market and US/Canada/UK/EU market is: the existing users in US/Canada/UK/EU concern the security mostly. The user in emerging market buys the BB device just because of its value. There is stickiness. The RIM subscribers in emerging market will/could shift to other better/lower price android/Nokia phone quickly. I think RIM will be completely kicked out from emerge market by the end of 2015.
    So I think there is no clear evidence that RIM is worth 10 dollars for IBM/Intel/Dell/Oracle to buy it.
    Maybe RIM will be bought as a small corporate about two years later.
    Jan 7, 2013. 04:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing RIM [View article]
    i agree both of you. As Jakob's metioned, Samsung is developing its own new OS Tizen with Intel, Japanese telecom and will ship the device this year.
    Perdition is always difficult thing, specially with concrete number. But I think the trend is correct. Android/OS is continue to take most market share in next couple of years.
    BB 10 will be a good device, comparing with rim it's own old bb7, but I don't think bb 10 has any superior feathers, comparing iphone5/htc aroid dna/lg optimas g/Samsung galaxy 3/Nokia lumina 920..., no matter from hardware or OS aspect... And Samsung is going to launch galaxy 4 in April/may, apple, new iPhone in June or sep. it really doesn't matter who/which company will launch BB 10. Even if it's jobs/apple launch the first iPhone in 2013, there is no magic that iPhone will be the iPhone today. The smart market in 2013 will be mature, both from hardware/OS aspect, it's not the market in 2007 when the first iPhone was launched. Don't dream any magic in any new device launched today. It's just "too small, too late", which I agree with(I know a lot of people hate or don't believe it).
    These are my personal thoughts, it doesn't have to be true. Let's wait and see 2013!
    Jan 7, 2013. 02:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing RIM [View article]
    Right. Google Nexus is already import brand now. and Rumors said that Google is developing its X-phone with its Motorola to compete with iPhone. Motorola is the reason that the Asian manufactures may need another OS, besides Android/Windows Phone.
    If RIM will license the BB 10 OS or Asian manufactures will take it. I think it depends following facts:
    1, How advanced the BB 10 OS is, comparing Android/IOS.
    2, How much resources/cost the Asian manufactures can/would like to put on the third OS. currently, I think most of them are still put on 90% on Android. 10% on Windows Phone.
    3, The ecology of RIM/BB10. I think the ecology of the OS is reason why they put 90% on Android and 10% on Windows Phone.
    4, Cost/profit, how much cost/profit to design/develop hardware for a new OS.
    Jan 7, 2013. 02:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing RIM [View article]
    Who may buy RIM potentially at present (before June 2013)?

    Lenovo/Huawei/ZTE… Can't offer 10 billion dollars to buy a company. Even banker loan them money. The Canada/US government won't approve the deal.
    Japanese manufactures (Sony/Panasonic…) is very busy, busy saving themselves.
    Korean/Taiwan manufactures, Samsung repeat 'no'. It's developing its own OS with Intel and Japanese telecom. LG/HTC is facing a lot pressure from Samsung. I don't think LG/HTC think can compete with Apple/Google/Microsoft from OS aspect. They will still co-operate with Microsoft/Google and focus on their own hardware manufacture.
    Apple/Microsoft/Google already has its own Mobile OS. It will be interesting if they buy a new mobile OS from competitor.
    HPQ is not a 1oo billion company anymore. If the board/CEO dare to offer another 10 billion to buy a company again, I guess they will be fired by staff/shareholder right way.
    Dell/Oracle is not HP. Michael Dell/Larry Ellison is not Leo Apotheker. They are smart. They only buy the company who can make money or help them to make money.
    Intel is facing pressure from ARM chip. Per history, it looks Intel is still focus on its chip. And only has a few of interesting to develop its own OS, instead of buying new OS. IBM is most focus on the backend system integration.
    Facebook/Amazon is still focusing on network/consumer marketing.
    Personally, I think IBM/Intel/Dell/Oracle/... is the company who can offer 10 billion dollars to buy a company. Since 10 billion is very big number. It has to be clear and evident that RIM is worth the amount, additionally, the buyer has to figure out if or how compete with Apple/Google/Microsoft.

    Value RIM from subscriber base aspect:

    In Q3 2013, RIM has 79 million subscribers, and 950 million service revenue which is the most possible to make profit for RIM.

    If we assume 10 million subscribers in US and 10 million subscribers in Canada/UK/EU and the average monthly fee is $10, the service revenue from these regions is about 600 million. That means the monthly fee for other 60 million subscribers in emerging market is about $2. $200 ~ $300 smart phone with $2 monthly fee was competitive two or one year ago because the price of iPhone and most of Android is higher than $300. Things started to change from the end of 2012, the android manufactures and Nokia already started to provide good phone with lower price < $300, some could be $200 or $100, or even lower than $100. I don't think the current BB devices or BB10 can't compete with the lower price android/Nokia smart phones in emerging market. The big difference between subscriber in emerging market and US/Canada/UK/EU market is: the existing users in US/Canada/UK/EU concern the security mostly. The user in emerging market buys the BB device just because of its value. There is no stickiness. The RIM subscribers in emerging market will/could shift to other better/lower price android/Nokia phone quickly. RIM is still losing millions of subscribers in US in one quarter; meanwhile the speed of increment in emerging market is slowing down. I think 80 million subscribers in Q2 2013 is the maximum value RIM can reach. And it will be completely kicked out from emerge market by the end of 2015.

    So I think there is no clear evidence that RIM is worth 10 dollars for IBM/Intel/Dell/Oracle/... to buy it.

    Maybe RIM will be bought as a small corporate about two years later.
    Jan 6, 2013. 02:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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