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dr_randevil

dr_randevil
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  • Why Research In Motion and Nokia Can't Compete with Apple [View article]
    it is so simple, I can't believe Nokia or RIM never thought to make better products!
    May 2, 2011. 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple HDTV Reaffirms Tech Innovator's Role as a Platform Company [View article]
    Where's my Apple SUV??? I want to live in an Apple condo! They do everything right!
    Apr 14, 2011. 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons Apple's iPad Will Remain King of the Tablets [View article]
    I wonder if well make it to that high of volume in 5 years, considering that tablets aren't good at being productive and are at price points that are out of the range of majority of even developed market consumers.
    Mar 3, 2011. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Microsoft Go Out of Business? [View article]
    The hard part about thinking about Google coming into traditional PCs is what would be the benefit to them? They made the Chrome browser to make web searches easier which helps them. They made a free mobile OS that drives web usage and search at the expense of apps, because, well people use apps rather than search, or at least that's the sense I get from Apple users. With traditional PCs people already have chrome and ie and firefox and others to search. It seems like it would be a giant pain to write an OS and support all the different version of software that people would want to run and to support all the peripherals that people have that they would want to continue to use. Cloud computing seems more interesting because presumably they could try and push Google Docs subscriptions, but it's hard to imagine now that someone would trade a feature rich MS office environment that at least on a personal use basis costs around the same on a per usable life basis as having a subscription to Docs does. I don't think the argument of Google would benefit more from watching you on the cloud leading to better search results because they can already do practically the same thing with cookies today. Look forward to seeing others thoughts.
    Feb 15, 2011. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Likely to Lose Smartphone Wars [View article]
    wow, finally an analyst who refuses to look @ any country other than the US. Those other countries just aren't worth think about. Buy AAPL @ whatever price, always 30% upside! Go USA only!!!!
    Sep 28, 2010. 12:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daktronics: Spotlight on Advertising [View article]
    with 3 colors you can make any color, think about your TV today, aside from Sharp trying to introduce yellow as a color differentiator (where's more support in advertising for that?), everyone seems content with RGB. Advertising is down for everything except for high ROI internet spend, so most branding is down, which is likely what you'd put on a billboard along a roadside. I think Lamar, Clear Channel Outdoor, CBS outdoor can appreciate the economics of running multiple ad messages in a location, generating multiples of revenue of the plywood model, with the benefit of being able to change boards with barely any labor involved.
    Sep 20, 2010. 02:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Bearishness in RIM Overdone? [View article]
    here's the issue that I think is important, but never talked about by US oriented analysts: a lot of the growth in the smartphone market will occur in not North America or Western Europe, you know, where the other 5 bln plus people live. And they have a much different buying method, often unsubsidized and prepaid. Prepaid lets Blackberry messenger become really important for users, who don't want to pay for text messages. BB also reduces data comsumption with web browsing. The second point is that with the unsubsidized devices, price points have to come down, you think the iPhone has any interest in charging less? Android makers may decide to cut prices, but if you look at someone like HTC, operating margins are maybe 20% for smartphones selling into markets where I think we can agree can afford to spend extra money on things like smartphones. Do you think just Moore's law can let prices fall enough to be competitive in the emerging markets? Without killing margins? Maybe so, I don't know, but I do know Moore's law at least lets RIM's hardware cost do the same as an Android's phone. So, all that said, I think in a worst case scenario, RIM still does pretty well over the next 5 years, at least as randomly well as Android does.
    Sep 19, 2010. 11:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Is Only Slightly Undervalued Even Under the Most Glorious Scenario [View article]
    Ken, any plans on updating your view of fair value given perhaps more clarity on costs for cleanup? Penalty phase still unknown, but I believe very challengeable.
    Sep 9, 2010. 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 Stocks John Neff Might Have Liked [View article]
    It will be interesting to see what will cause the market to decide to rerate the PE ratios for energy companies. I'm also skeptical on the PEG ratios being so low for most of these firms, seems like it's not a smoothed "normal" growth rate being used, but more like actual, which is skewed by all sorts of refining related declines and growth for CVX. I don't follow Nelnet as closely, but I suspect there is something with the student loan consolidation market that should be understood before going headfirst into that stock.
    Sep 9, 2010. 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Is Only Slightly Undervalued Even Under the Most Glorious Scenario [View article]
    Just curious on why you need 10% discount rate for your FCF analysis? For me, it seems like you are double counting the impact of Gulf related spending not being shareholder FCF by lowering the FCF/share and raising the discount rate. Also, not to be super picky, but with 3% 10 year US govt. bonds, don't you think 7% risk premium is too high?
    Jul 18, 2010. 04:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why People Invest in Stocks [View article]
    I can't remember the person who famously says this, but it goes something along the lines of you make 90% of your money in downturns, you just don't know it at the time. I think Felix should clarify his feelings about investing in stocks down to this: Humans are emotional and therefore can't be trusted to do the right utility maximizing things at the right time. The evidence that people put money into the stock market when it's going up and there is little volatility is true, but it's because most people are momentum followers because of the all sorts of cognitive biases. The second point, people get scared when things get volatile so they don't put money in. Again fear and cognitive biases interfere with proper action. It's not that people shouldn't invest in stocks, it's that people should use professionals or even consistent dollar cost averaging to help them get over their fears.
    May 19, 2010. 04:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm in Favor of Net Neutrality Regulation [View article]
    The funny part about the net neutrality argument and "dumb pipes" is that as whatever the content portion that flows across the pipes becomes more important to you, the more valuable the connection from the "dumb pipes" becomes. I guess we will see in a few years if cable can raise their cable internet rates just how little value the "dumb pipes" added to the experience.
    May 6, 2010. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Invest Retirement Funds in Stocks? [View article]
    Felix, don't forget that there is a very real longevity risk involved in planning for retirement. It has been an unfortunate period of time where if you look at past performance, maybe you wouldn't have put any money in stocks. In hindsight that's great, but in trying to plan for the future, a person needs to be mindful of their needs and wants for retirement and how far along the risk scale they wish to travel to try and earn higher returns.
    May 6, 2010. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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