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dr_randevil

dr_randevil
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  • Dell (DELL): FQ1 EPS of $0.43 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $14.42B (-4% Y/Y) misses by $490M. Expects FQ2 revenue of $14.7B-$15B, below $15.4B consensus. Shares -7.5% AH. (PR)  [View news story]
    you're so smart
    May 22 05:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple HDTV Reaffirms Tech Innovator's Role as a Platform Company [View article]
    Where's my Apple SUV??? I want to live in an Apple condo! They do everything right!
    Apr 14 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Likely to Lose Smartphone Wars [View article]
    wow, finally an analyst who refuses to look @ any country other than the US. Those other countries just aren't worth think about. Buy AAPL @ whatever price, always 30% upside! Go USA only!!!!
    Sep 28 12:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Bearishness in RIM Overdone? [View article]
    here's the issue that I think is important, but never talked about by US oriented analysts: a lot of the growth in the smartphone market will occur in not North America or Western Europe, you know, where the other 5 bln plus people live. And they have a much different buying method, often unsubsidized and prepaid. Prepaid lets Blackberry messenger become really important for users, who don't want to pay for text messages. BB also reduces data comsumption with web browsing. The second point is that with the unsubsidized devices, price points have to come down, you think the iPhone has any interest in charging less? Android makers may decide to cut prices, but if you look at someone like HTC, operating margins are maybe 20% for smartphones selling into markets where I think we can agree can afford to spend extra money on things like smartphones. Do you think just Moore's law can let prices fall enough to be competitive in the emerging markets? Without killing margins? Maybe so, I don't know, but I do know Moore's law at least lets RIM's hardware cost do the same as an Android's phone. So, all that said, I think in a worst case scenario, RIM still does pretty well over the next 5 years, at least as randomly well as Android does.
    Sep 19 11:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Is Only Slightly Undervalued Even Under the Most Glorious Scenario [View article]
    Just curious on why you need 10% discount rate for your FCF analysis? For me, it seems like you are double counting the impact of Gulf related spending not being shareholder FCF by lowering the FCF/share and raising the discount rate. Also, not to be super picky, but with 3% 10 year US govt. bonds, don't you think 7% risk premium is too high?
    Jul 18 04:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why People Invest in Stocks [View article]
    I can't remember the person who famously says this, but it goes something along the lines of you make 90% of your money in downturns, you just don't know it at the time. I think Felix should clarify his feelings about investing in stocks down to this: Humans are emotional and therefore can't be trusted to do the right utility maximizing things at the right time. The evidence that people put money into the stock market when it's going up and there is little volatility is true, but it's because most people are momentum followers because of the all sorts of cognitive biases. The second point, people get scared when things get volatile so they don't put money in. Again fear and cognitive biases interfere with proper action. It's not that people shouldn't invest in stocks, it's that people should use professionals or even consistent dollar cost averaging to help them get over their fears.
    May 19 04:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Stay Premium In The Long Run? [View article]
    It seems hard for people to believe that the coolness of Apple comes from exclusivity, that only the rich and cool have one. I agree that if you have more and more people who are able to afford the devices, regardless of who takes the hit, Apple or retailer, that at least some of the trendsetters are likely to move to something new. You don't want to have the same phone as the help does!
    Dec 20 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • As weak U.S. gas prices drag down its earnings, Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A +2.2%) plans to boost profits by converting natural gas into road fuels like diesel, which it can sell at much higher prices. Selina Williams says only Shell can leverage its position as the world’s top producer of gas-to-liquid fuels, which can fill the tank of any car, to tap profits in the U.S. fuel market. [View news story]
    finally! Thank you Shell.
    Nov 1 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's Favorite Valuation Metric Goes Bullish [View article]
    I wonder what that chart would look like if you had instead of the S&P 500 the S&P 500 less the S&P 100.
    Jun 19 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • All Things Digital asks where did the 9M cable subscribers go that responded to a Deloitte survey that they canceled their paid TV service if the pay-TV industry reports an almost unchanged level of subscribers? With another 11% in the survey tipping off that they're considering using online sources for TV - could it be that the phenomena of "cord-cutting" and "cord-nevers" is even larger than reported? CHTR, CMCSA, TWC, DTV, and DISH would like to know. [View news story]
    if espn is 6-10 bucks a month for all the varients and everyone who has cable/satellite has to take them, I wonder what the cost would be for the people that just wanted it.

    I also wonder about the retransmission payments that the broadcast companies are starting to get from all cable subscribers. I wonder how pleased they would be if they lost that stream of revenue from the over the air only people.

    A-la-carte is a tempting idea, I just don't know if the people who provide the programming want to go backwards or if they have the power to stop from going backwards on what they earn.
    Jan 5 04:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • RIM's Grim Earnings Reality [View article]
    Is there any way that you can have a shorter time horizon?
    Jun 6 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Even Buyout Rumors Cannot Help Research In Motion [View article]
    Did wireless spectrum become free? Not in, did they free some up, but monetarily?

    I guess everyone will just get an iPhone and pay whatever the telcos want for unlimited data...
    Jun 5 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Jump on the Bears' Research In Motion Bandwagon? [View article]
    here's how the momentum investment philosophy works:
    don't let facts get in the way of a good story!
    May 10 07:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Research In Motion and Nokia Can't Compete with Apple [View article]
    it is so simple, I can't believe Nokia or RIM never thought to make better products!
    May 2 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 Stocks John Neff Might Have Liked [View article]
    It will be interesting to see what will cause the market to decide to rerate the PE ratios for energy companies. I'm also skeptical on the PEG ratios being so low for most of these firms, seems like it's not a smoothed "normal" growth rate being used, but more like actual, which is skewed by all sorts of refining related declines and growth for CVX. I don't follow Nelnet as closely, but I suspect there is something with the student loan consolidation market that should be understood before going headfirst into that stock.
    Sep 9 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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