Seeking Alpha

John N. Heil

John N. Heil
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View John N. Heil's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • A Better Entry Point For Apple Will Become Available For Patient Investors [View article]
    Here is a guy who obviously wants to buy Apple much lower. He knows exactly how great a company and its prospects are. So he wants in very badly, maybe even desperately so. Hence, this ridiculous and superficial non-analysis. Sheer nonsense. Ignore it completely.

    Big J in L.A., retired security analyst

    P.S. Comments of this ilk should be rejected by the publisher. There is enough worthwhile Apple commentary without this sort of mediocre rendering. Maybe S A wants to balance things out a bit and justifies this inclusive on that basis
    Aug 3 12:12 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's 'Healthbook': Exactly What The Doctor Ordered, Especially For Women Like Me [View article]
    I see one of the chief benefits of the new iTime as monitoring the health of our senior citizens. Here an overview of their physical conditions and status will be mandatory in the years ahead. It will be considered one of the great innovations in preventive medicine. And, what children of elderly parents will not insist that their beloved mom and dad oblige this kind of surveillance of their health condition? Tens of millions of these devices will be sold in the future, and I bet that Apple will be the most conscientious in developing this capability across the board. No one will skimp on inferior consumer electronics in this category, which, implicitly, makes Apple the leader once again and a new "revolutionary" in this field as well.

    Big J in L.A., retired security analyst
    Jul 29 06:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Mobile Profitability: The Illusion Of Advantage [View article]
    Thanks everybody, all commentators on this post, for out-thinking the author. I notice he did not attempt to defend his thesis at any point as everybody could see the flaw in his logic quite transparently.

    Big J in L.A., retired security analyst
    Jul 28 12:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Earnings Trough For Apple [View article]
    "You trade on price because price is what makes you money."

    Fella, by your own logic Apple is then the most compelling stock in the entire tech sector. How many metrics do you need to prove this point? Start only with 10X the EPS estimate excash for the coming fiscal year per Morgan Stanley. You go from there in determining just how valuable a stock Apple is in the low 90s area, its current PRICE.
    Jul 22 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple 3Q14 Preview: iPhone 6 To Steal The Show [View article]
    We know pretty much the topics for discussion and analyst queries at Tuesday's conference call. But what is not discussed is the possibility that the company has already acquired shares with the funds raised in their recent $12 billion bond offering. One thing about Peter O.; he was very aggressive once the board gave its authorizations to acquire stock. This reduction in shares outstanding may well add to the beat I foresee when operating results are announced next week.

    Regarding this poster's comments, it is just more nitpicking about past history. The market is a discounting mechanism. The three product introductions: two new iPhones and the iWatch are the entire focus now. They should provide a lot of momentum over the four quarters starting with December results.

    Another pet peeve of mine is the ridiculous target prices being posted on this board. Over the next year and a half there will be major market corrections (long past due), as well as instances where doubt pervades Apple's prospects---a regular phenomenon with this stock. I think we will see a price of somewhere between 110. and 115. in calendar 2015, with luck probably closer to 115. To imagine otherwise is to entertain fantasies. Longer term the law of large numbers will continually catche up with Apple. The only advantage of this is that share prices will be lower whereby the company can continue to buy back their stock. Over time this can offset to some extent the law of large numbers but only gradually.

    I have over 40 years in this business as an analyst and investment counselor. I do not appreciate the rashness of this modern juvenile generation calling for pie in the sky target prices at every turn. The real world is a much more habitable place to reside as an adult human being.

    Big J in L.A., retired security analyst
    Jul 19 07:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q3 Risks Are To The Downside [View article]
    Enterprise wants more security. This is what the combo IBM and Apple can really guarantee big users. No more secure system in the world: this is the key to how well-received and effective any collaborative effort of two such stellar companies.

    Regarding the quarter, kind of a non event in terms of operating results given the product introductions later this year. Guidance can overcome any disappointment in near term numbers. Katy Huberty by the way is actually expecting as many as 39 million iPhone devices sold.

    Keep your eye on the ball longer term: VALUE FUNDAMENTALS SENTIMENT. These are the key determinants going forward, and all positive in Apple's case. I think just about everybody senses there will be a run-up in price for Apple to a new high some time in calendar 2014. Then we can take another look at it.

    Big J in L.A., retired security analyst
    Jul 19 12:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Apple's New Health App Has Fitness Tracking And Caffeine Monitoring Features [View article]
    Would any conscientious child not want their aging parents to have such a monitoring device? It will be mandatory in a few years as our population ages further and physicians recommend same. How exciting for Apple the leader in this field and most trusted name.
    Jul 10 07:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where's Apple In The Public's Appraisal Of Market Sentiment? [View article]
    Steve Melunovich of UBS is the first analyst to quantify in his report Fiscal 2015 operating results to include Apple's three device introductions this fall. Such additions are not included in the consensus estimate at present. Remember, Apple's new fiscal year begins in only 2.5 months. The two CFA designated analysts monitoring Apple for UBS peg fiscal 2015 EPS at 7.22. This is a conservative number I suspect, as Steve is an extremely cautious prognosticator. For example, he still has a target price of only 100, although telling the gang on Fast Money that he may well raise that estimate soon now. So at 95.04 currently, AAPL sells for just about 13X that number and 10X the ex-cash amount. If I had a ranch to bet I surely would in this case. You just cannot find value and quality of this kind. The cash hoard and free cash flow numbers alone are utterly unique in American corporate history. I cannot imagine a safer or more dynamic situation in today's somewhat fragile stock market.

    Big J in L.A., retired Security analyst, member The Los Angeles Society of Security Analysts.
    Jul 10 07:47 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Siri Patent-Infringement Trial Can Impact Its Future [View article]
    Apple can always threaten, in a subtle manner, going to another foreign land to produce its devices. There are many ways to combat irrational, opportunistic, superfluous, nit picking lawsuits. Even worst case, a suit like this can be appealed almost indefinitely in multiple countries to the point where the plaintiff cries uncle. You just don't mess with a monolith like Apple and get away scot free. A price is paid and counter-suits offer that chance to an entrenched Apple as it redesigns Siri anyway.
    Jul 10 04:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Party Is Over; Initiating With A Bearish View [View article]
    Another rehash of the same old canards, especially the notion of market share. The three top analysts following Apple in the U.S. work for Morgan Stanley, Piper Jaffray and UBS. Their conclusions are the opposite of this Johnny come lately. Whose vision is likely the more accurate? One guess.
    Jul 10 01:42 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Algorithm Predicts An End To Apple's 12-Month Run [View article]
    Anyone with the hubris to call his advisory service "I Know First" is an egoist of the first order. What this guy wants is to get new subscribers for his service. He makes a brash prediction, and in the unlikely event he is correct, it makes his business for a while. He probably is hurting and this is one desperate solution, when hiring a flack to write a knock piece with warmed over criticisms he found online. That is really pathetic. As Apple shareholders, all we need to know is that the stock sells for under 13X the estimate (conservative UBS, Steve Melinovich) for fiscal 2015, and 10.1X ex cash. Likewise, the analyst community is unanimous in believing the iPhone 6 introduction will be the largest for any phone in history. This is why Samsung is quaking in its boots and predicting big down quarters ahead. Forget the iWatch, although would Apple not have done its market research with the medical profession to assure at least some success. "I Know Last," or "I Don't Have a Clue" would be better titles for his amateurish advisory service.

    Big J in L.A., retired Security Analyst, Member The Los Angeles Society of Security Analysts.
    Jul 9 10:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Acquiring Tesla Makes Sense [View article]
    This writer got it entirely wrong. It is not Tesla Apple seeks to buy, but rather G.M. BTW the only legitimate contact between these two companies would be if Tesla chose to add some Apple carplay device to its vehicles as more and more OEMs are doing.

    Big J in L.A.
    Jul 3 05:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Open Call To Apple Bears For Debate [View article]
    "In Chinatown nothing is ever what it seems to be." Care extrapolating this quote to Blair? What if he is a super bull who simply writes a lot of superficial stuff to set himself up as a straw-man really interested in showing how good Apple is? He is an easy mark for Apple bulls and therefore a source of greater insight on this board. Do we not all benefit from the commentaries to these paid insertions rather than the insertion itself, I mean all such insertions not just Blair's. They encourage much reflection and ever greater insight. I really do not think this is the case with Blair, since I do not think he is clever enough to attempt something like it. (the subterfuge or disinformation that is).

    The other thing about Blair: he is a Canadian. That is writ large in his mentality and outlook on Apple. I believe such is the more likely reality. M.B. once owned RIMM, a Canadian firm supplanted by Apple now the world's most respected and profitable and largest company. We here in the U.S. stole that title from RIMM which could well have brought all this glory to our Northern neighbors as the ultimate smartphone company. Think of their lead in that race and how they blew it. Sad indeed. So Blair, transparently, might be fighting that last war, resenting Apple which stole the thunder from all those Maple leaf fans up North. Oh how galling it must be for Canada to realize a man named Steve Jobs deprived them of so much fame and praise in the business and commercial world at large. I do sincerely feel sorry for those folks. But the U.S. was always the far more innovative nation than our smaller 20 million population neighbor Canada. So rather than disturb rational fair-minded Apple shareholders by unfair and unreasonable criticism of our company, Blair should go quietly away. That would be the more responsible thing on his art instead of scaring people with misdirected and shallow criticisms that only cost his followers a lot of money.
    Jul 1 07:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Latent Rates Of Revenue Growth [View article]
    Diversity, like environmental concerns, is a positive for Apple and others. I can see a lot more socially responsible types gravitating to Apple because of its social conscience and egalitarian spirit.
    Jun 29 09:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Biggest Threat - Declining Prices Of Computing Devices [View article]
    Here is a thinking outside the box moment. Because Apple shares are not more accessible price-wise, many purchasers of their "higher priced" devices will justify such buys by investing in the shares. I have done this consistently over the years in many different stocks. When I was hottest on Chipotle, I had many a delicious buritos. Ditto even McDonalds when owning it at $10. Same for Nike. And my loyalty to Home Depot correlated well with my shareholder enthusiasm. This is human nature. So splitting AAPL stock 7-for-1 likely has this ancillary benefit, even if a relatively minor consideration. .
    Jun 29 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
72 Comments
172 Likes