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fritz68

fritz68
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  • Investing In Leveraged ETFs - Theory And Practice [View article]
    Thanks a lot drftr! TD Ameritrade are very good (I already use TOS), will check them out.

    Back on topic, should say that this is an excellent article, sharply contrasting with some of the other leveraged ETFs articles I've read on SA where the author shows the returns of a portfolio with the notional value of $300 in short SPXU/TMV versus $100 in SPY and then explains the outperformance of the former as "structural arbitrage" and other charlatan hype (of course selling a service too).
    May 8, 2015. 04:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Apple Is Weak Since Earnings [View article]
    Another anecdote from a non-US country:-our small company (400 employees) was bought by a much larger company (100k). A major worry of the employees post-deal was we´d have to give up our iPhones for the company Nokias.

    They relented at first and let us keep our iPhones. Finally they forced us to take the Nokia. When they were delivered they were lying round the desks still in their boxes. People were´t even curious to see how they looked. Seeing the lack of adoption, eventually the leadership had to issue twin-sim cards so we could use the Nokia for work emails and keep our iPhones for everything else.

    The theory that this is a fickle business (more related to old feature phones) with people ready to jump off iOS to some other platform does not play out in real-life.

    Most people (like me) are lazy technotards. We love both the phone & iOS and the idea of switching both hardware and software is just far too much hassle and time. The stickiness will only continue with products like apple pay.

    Wouldn´t be surprised if the measure of success of any new Apple product, e.g., the watch, is "Will it maintain and/or expand our iOS/iPhone business?". Anything else is a bonus.
    May 8, 2015. 02:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Apple Is Weak Since Earnings [View article]
    Paulo, when I look at your AAPL article titles, the vast majority are negative. Of your last 10 AAPL articles, 10 are negative. Not sure where you get the 10:1 ratio from.

    If you really believe what you write in this article why on earth would you ever be long historically?

    Other than AAPL doubling in price since you wrote that it´s ´magic is broken´, your previous predictions have proven horribly wrong. For example last summer you wrote:

    "Apple is rumored to be asking $100 more for its latest iPhone 6.
    This is a problem, because Apple has lost its ecosystem advantage and its phones are already too expensive. While the larger display is welcome, a larger price will make the share problem larger at a point where Android is already dominating. There seems to be no way out for Apple. Either it sacrifices margins or volume, and both are bad outcomes"
    May 8, 2015. 01:27 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Leveraged ETFs - Theory And Practice [View article]
    Thanks for info. TMD. I need to find a broker where I can trade the U.S market as a non-US citizen, will check out IB.
    May 8, 2015. 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Apple Is Weak Since Earnings [View article]
    The author warned of impending doom in Aug 2013 with his article "Apple´s Magic is Broken" when he clearly highlighted how the iPhone was about to lose ground to Samsung etc.

    Apple was trading at $59 at the time.
    May 7, 2015. 05:54 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Leveraged ETFs - Theory And Practice [View article]
    OptionXpress. (although about to switch, after 3 years have had enough of their error-strewn platform).
    May 7, 2015. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Leveraged ETFs - Theory And Practice [View article]
    Thanks for your overview Doug.

    I understand the ratio they´ve found is optimal is based on an up-trending market but I think this would also be optimal for a flat/choppy market. The drag on the bear ETFs is worse in volatile markets so a higher percentage in the bear ETFs increases returns.

    Of course if the markets spent the majority of the time going down and not sideways/up then this wouldn´t work. But this is highly unlikely. For me it´s long-term portfolio replacement and I believe the market will trend upwards overtime, so I´m almost always net long. Otherwise you resort to market-timing and I reckon it´s best to be systematic.


    I´ve never paid carry costs on shorting shares, at least nothing that´s shown up on my account. I´m only shorting TMV now though, so am talking historically.

    I agree the tax deferring method they describe sounds dubious, my tax return is based on gains and losses so you can´t get around it in the method they describe.

    This is a major issue, as if you add up both dividends and capital gains tax (versus buy and hold) the differences might not be so pronounced.

    One other system I used was shorting TZA, hedging with IWM puts and selling IWM calls. Theory was that the inherent decay in TZA would pay for puts. But I´d get TZA called away and I gave up.

    Hope the oil trades went well!

    Fritz
    May 7, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Leveraged ETFs - Theory And Practice [View article]
    Hey Doug, the abstract related to a 48 yr period, it´s not the typical 2009-15.

    Think you´ll find the whole article interesting. The max annual and daily drawdowns are not far off what you´d expect if you went 100% long SPY.

    Look fwd to hearing your thoughts.

    Fritz
    May 6, 2015. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Leveraged ETFs - Theory And Practice [View article]
    This article is a goldmine of info, esp. the data on backtesting several decades with various long/short ratios

    http://bit.ly/1byjllx

    You can download it for free (see tab down to the right on link)
    May 6, 2015. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Leveraged ETFs - Theory And Practice [View article]
    I use a similar set-up, short weekly SPY and/or SPX ITM puts hedged with short ES futures. Notional exposure with futures is 50% of my portfolio value and the max notional value of the ITM SPX puts are 100% of portfolio value (at delta 1). Of course it swings around but I try and keep my delta position on the puts between neutral and double my ES short position.

    I never overleverage when VIX is low but can shift to OTM puts (keeping delta exposure relatively constant) after a spike. I go much futher out in time to avoid whipsaw (gamma exposure) in volatile periods.

    The author Reel Ken is an invaluable source of info here on SA for this type of set-up, he knows how to set options positions up as portfolio replacement, i.e, as a long-term investment, as opposed to trading vehicles.
    May 6, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Won't Have A $1 Trillion Market Capitalization Any Time Soon [View article]
    Apple falling after the earnings announcement is more associated with the unwinding of the massive call option open interest, sold and hedged by MMs with the purchase of stock. You could even see last week that despite a great report it was likely to be dragged down to the 125 strike.

    Throw in a re-hashed Irish tax story and a watch defect piece and bingo.

    Next few weeks should be good.

    But agree with your overall premise, the stock could go much higher without a linear increase in mkt cap.
    May 1, 2015. 12:13 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Zenith Behind Us, Nadir On The Horizon [View article]
    @toneguru, agreed, I think it was more related to the emotional, illogical decisions that investors make in the valuation of AAPL, frequently based around a number of mistaken beliefs related to it´s sheer size.

    To steal a line from Carl Ichan´s twitter profile:

    "Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity."

    Speaking of faulty logic, I wonder how well an ETF would perform that took the opposite side of all SA authors that describe themselves as "contrarian".
    May 1, 2015. 01:57 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Zenith Behind Us, Nadir On The Horizon [View article]
    Gregg, you wrote by far the best AAPL article I´ve read on SA (Breaking Law of Large Numbers). If anyone hasn´t read it, please do, then forget all the short-term noise.
    Apr 30, 2015. 01:35 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Have You Missed The Boat? [View article]
    Interesting to note how thinly KMI options trade yet someone has just bought about 250k Jan 17 50/60 call spreads for about $25 million. Someone very confident the boat hasn't been missed.
    Apr 24, 2015. 08:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: A 7% Dividend Hike To Top Off A Strong Quarter [View article]
    ...meant of course "going into 2017 with a dividend of $2.40". And "million" not "million´s" (no edit function when written on mobile). Referring to the Jan 2017 50/60 spread.
    Apr 17, 2015. 01:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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