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PatPatterson

PatPatterson
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  • A Sneak Peek At Apple's Earnings [View article]
    Has anyone seen whether Apple is doing any research into the use of graphene in their products?
    Apr 20 04:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Model S sales level off [View news story]
    How accurate has the AutoData been in the past?
    Apr 8 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dumb Investment Of The Week: Tesla Motors Stock [View article]
    Comparing Tesla to other automobile companies and suggesting that we "know" what margins can be because they are in the same industry is like comparing Sears to Amazon: they are both in retail sales, but what does that tell you about margins?
    Mar 4 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commonwealth's Portnoy responds to defeat [View news story]
    Never underestimate the proclivity of shareholders to act like sheep! Everyone who cares about CWH has GOT to do everything they can to be sure that the current board of directors gets removed in favor of Related and Corvex!
    Nov 19 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Recharging Its Evaluation [View article]
    I figure they make an operating profit of $10/share on 60,000 Model S and Model X.
    Aug 25 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even Elon Musk Thinks Tesla Stock Is Overpriced [View article]
    Regardless of your pessimistic assumptions (all such assumptions made in the past ten years about Tesla have been wrong), here is the simplistic case that can be made for Tesla and why, if true, the stock is reasonably priced at $161. Assuming 25,000 deliveries this year, 40,000 in '14, 60,000 in '15, 100,000 in 16, 125,000 in 17 as they transition to the mass market EV, and 250,000 for 2018. (Remember, the plant they have can produce well over 400,000 vehicles.) Assume further that the average price is 85,000 for 2013, $90,000 for 14, 15 and 16 (combo of the Model S and Model X), then down to $75,000 and then to $55,000 for 2017 & 18. Operating margins at 20% in 2013, 25% in 14, 28% in 15, 30% in 16 and 17, then down to 25% in 2018. Assume that additional capital will be raised, increasing shares to 175,000,000 from the current 121,000,000 (that will give them $7 billion if sold at an average of $300, $3.5 billion if sold at current pricing, enough capital to do whatever they want). These assumptions push operating earnings to $19.50 a share in 2018, a steady progression of 68% per year simple with 22% in the last year. So what kind of multiple do you put on a stock with this kind of performance. Certainly a small premium, at least, to the S&P, say 20 times operating earnings? That's $393 per share. That's growth of about 40% per year simple. (By the way, this is the scenario - pushed out to 2020 - that JP Morgan must be using to get to their best cash current value of $150, using a 12% discount rate.) THAT'S the story that has caused the stock to get to where it is, and THAT'S the story that has your broker worried to death about your ability to cover the margin calls on your short position!
    Aug 25 11:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Recharging Its Evaluation [View article]
    I don't know what kind of calculations you are performing, but they don't make sense. 1,000,000 vehicles at, say, $75,000 average each makes for $75B in sales; at a 25% operating margin, that's $18.75B in operating profit. That works out to $155/share in profit, the approximate trading price of the shares today. So you think one/half times future earnings is the right number? Really?
    Aug 24 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Insiders Are Selling Apple [View article]
    You can't make anything out of those sales if you don't know their option positions nor their family/trust holdings.
    Aug 5 01:36 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The selloff in Tesla (TSLA -14.5%) gathers momentum following Goldman running the numbers and finding the stock deserves its valuation only in the best of scenarios. Volume in the shares today looks like it will end up at about 4x the average level. [View news story]
    Goldman's numbers were wonderful news if you really look at them; only his conclusions as to value (what does he or any other analyst in the world know about "value"?) sucked. His base case of $5.99 (don't you love those exact figures?) in earnings is the WORST case? Hallelujah! Please, don't throw me in that briar patch! Bullish case, implied earnings of $12+. Don't know in what universe investors will only pay 16 to 7 times those earnings. His "error" (in my judgment): the 20% discount rate. I don't know why one would discount those earnings at anything more than the average rate of return on equities.
    Jul 16 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • You'll Be Surprised By Tesla's Q2 Earnings [View article]
    The Goldman Sachs report has hit the stock, but no mention in the press or blogs about the discount number that the analyst is using, 20%! What this means is that his best case target of $113 really represents a valuation of like $225 after the 20% discount. Further, the analysts suggests his worst/base case would produce earnings of $5.99/share implying that the best case would produce earnings of $12+. In what universe does a company with that kind of growth trade at less than a 20 multiple? (Tesla doesn't really trade on the "meat" of a multiple of earnings but rather on the sizzle of the story.) If his numbers are right, the stock should trade between $120 and $250.
    Jul 16 12:24 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Battery Swap Is A No-Go [View article]
    But you shouldn't NEED the battery swap except on a long trip of over 250 miles; how many one way 250 mile trips does one take in a lifetime?
    Jun 22 03:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More weekend buzz on Tesla Motors (TSLA) (previous): Shares will be on watch Monday following a Barron's cover story that pitches the case that a triple-digit share price is unjustified. Two things to consider for the EV automaker's long-term potential: 1) Will the cost of electric batteries come down as Tesla rolls out its Model X and Gen III? Opinion is sharply divided. 2) While CEO Elon Musk says he sees sales reaching 30K-40K per year soon, if you crunch the numbers it appears investors are betting on sales reaching a level of hundreds of thousands a year. Despite Tesla's transformative tech, as the company eventually enters the mass-market segment valuation could fall back in line with peers. [View news story]
    And one more thing: anyone ever heard the phrase "climbing a wall of worry"? That's very old Wall Streeteze: a stock hasn't got any pizazz if there is no doubt regarding its worth or its future.
    Jun 9 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More weekend buzz on Tesla Motors (TSLA) (previous): Shares will be on watch Monday following a Barron's cover story that pitches the case that a triple-digit share price is unjustified. Two things to consider for the EV automaker's long-term potential: 1) Will the cost of electric batteries come down as Tesla rolls out its Model X and Gen III? Opinion is sharply divided. 2) While CEO Elon Musk says he sees sales reaching 30K-40K per year soon, if you crunch the numbers it appears investors are betting on sales reaching a level of hundreds of thousands a year. Despite Tesla's transformative tech, as the company eventually enters the mass-market segment valuation could fall back in line with peers. [View news story]
    Can anyone tell me if the short interest in a stock takes into account "shorts against the box"? These are short sales using borrowed stock to sell without disturbing a long term position one holds in a stock and which one doesn't want to disturb. At some point, one buys the short back in - potential demand like any other short - but the urgency isn't there; one can always just deliver the long position against the short and be outta there. And don't tell me that venture capitalist and other insiders don't avail themselves of this kind of transaction so that they don't have to publicize the sale of the stock (well, eventually the company insiders do).

    My point is, simiply, that there may be no short squeeze at all, just a whole bunch of people having taken profits for the short term and not really having any compunction to buy back the stock. Pretty hard to squeeze such a position.
    Jun 9 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More weekend buzz on Tesla Motors (TSLA) (previous): Shares will be on watch Monday following a Barron's cover story that pitches the case that a triple-digit share price is unjustified. Two things to consider for the EV automaker's long-term potential: 1) Will the cost of electric batteries come down as Tesla rolls out its Model X and Gen III? Opinion is sharply divided. 2) While CEO Elon Musk says he sees sales reaching 30K-40K per year soon, if you crunch the numbers it appears investors are betting on sales reaching a level of hundreds of thousands a year. Despite Tesla's transformative tech, as the company eventually enters the mass-market segment valuation could fall back in line with peers. [View news story]
    I don't get the argument that Tesla has to sell hundreds of thousands of cars in order to justify the market's expectation. Simple math: using $85,000 average price with a 25% margin means the 36,000 cars will produce $775,000,000 in profits. The stock currently sells at 15 times that number, and the company could well produce more cars than 36,000 this year! What am I missing? Or am I just being pimped into writing a comment?
    Jun 9 08:37 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long And Bumpy Road Ahead For Tesla [View article]
    But have you driven a Tesla? If you do, you'll go get your down payment back! And, really, when is the last time you drove your car over 200 miles non-stop? That question will be "300" miles by 2014.
    May 26 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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