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PatPatterson

PatPatterson
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  • GM's 200-Mile Electric Car For $30,000: RIP Tesla [View article]
    Has the author heard of a company called Apple? Based upon the author's comments, he is comparing the Blackberry or Nokia phones to the iPhone 6+. That is, he is comparing Apples to Lemons. Does he REALLY think that Tesla buyers will shy away from the car because it is 3" wider?? Be gravitated TOWARDS it is more like it. And this new GM car is not a competitor and won't be a competitor for at least three years; what do you think Tesla is going to have to offer in three years? Musk has already said that they'll be at 450 miles within a couple of years, and that with a luxury car that knocks the socks off any luxury sports vehicle on the earth, in every way possible: looks, features, performance, safety, resale value, service, upgrades, improvements. You name the important factors in owning any car and Tesla is better at it than anything around. I'm not planning on cancelling my orders for 5 of the Model Xs to add to the two Model S's (a 2012 P85 and a 2015 P85D).

    But the obvious truth is that Tesla is in competition with no one. There is no one taking sales away from anyone else in the luxury car field. It represents a small fraction of the automotive business, and if price were the determinate issue, Ferrari would have never sold its first car much less become a leader in the industry.
    Jan 11, 2015. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Own A Tesla Model S, Just Don't Dent It! [View article]
    All I would say is to attach the following (was not able to attach pdf) for some repairs done on my 2012 a couple of weeks ago, after 12,000 miles; a few dings, new tires, fixed some minor body damages and did the annual maintenance. Total bill: $2,017. Hardly a rip off, and while their labor rate is somewhat high, at $175/hour, it isn't that bad.

    I was so upset and decided to show Tesla! I just took delivery of my 2014 P85D. AWESOME!!

    
    Dec 24, 2014. 02:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Tesla Have In Common With Commodore International? [View article]
    There is one HUGE difference, and that's the total market for their products. Commodore dominated the market with huge market share at the beginning and thus was in a position to be the target of competition. Tesla, if it achieves 100% of its goals through 2020 will still only be less than 1% of the 80,000,000 market, a market which is likely to be closer to 100,000,000 in 2020. It will be many, many years before financial waves coming from Tesla jumping into the pool will impact or even be felt by other automakers.
    Dec 3, 2014. 01:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tallying Up Model S Sales Up To August And Its Implications [View article]
    Ever driven one? You'll never be found yawning again! Keep in mind, please, that initially Tesla/Musk intended to switch the Model S line over to Model X, and the Model X was supposed to come out at the end of 2013. Now why do you suppose they decided, instead, to continue to run the Model S line parallel with the Model X? No shortage of orders for the Model X, either.

    Enjoy your short positions! You must be masochists!
    Sep 16, 2014. 04:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla And The Dilution Misconception [View article]
    You do not take into account that if new share are issued for options issued within the last year and shares to BE issued in the future will be at something greater than $200 per share. There will only be dilution if options are exercised at prices well below the tradings price. It is unlikely that we will see anything like the dilution we have seen in the past couple of years.
    Aug 31, 2014. 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Short Interest Hits 2014 Low [View article]
    Should you not consider the fact that while the percentage of the stock float short has declined somewhat the total dollar volume of the short position has increased 500-1000%. It seems like that is a lot of DOLLARS to be short, and that's what is at risk: the MONEY they are "short", not the shares of stock.

    Also, do you take into account the fact that there are likely a large number of shares short "against the box" so to speak; that those with restricted stock - say venture capital funds or employees - have borrowed stock to sell against shares that they hold? Isn't it likely that a large number of the short interest is really not of the "float" and really doesn't represent shares that must be repurchased?
    Aug 27, 2014. 03:21 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sneak Peek At Apple's Earnings [View article]
    Has anyone seen whether Apple is doing any research into the use of graphene in their products?
    Apr 20, 2014. 04:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Model S sales level off [View news story]
    How accurate has the AutoData been in the past?
    Apr 8, 2014. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dumb Investment Of The Week: Tesla Motors Stock [View article]
    Comparing Tesla to other automobile companies and suggesting that we "know" what margins can be because they are in the same industry is like comparing Sears to Amazon: they are both in retail sales, but what does that tell you about margins?
    Mar 4, 2014. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commonwealth's Portnoy responds to defeat [View news story]
    Never underestimate the proclivity of shareholders to act like sheep! Everyone who cares about CWH has GOT to do everything they can to be sure that the current board of directors gets removed in favor of Related and Corvex!
    Nov 19, 2013. 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Recharging Its Evaluation [View article]
    I figure they make an operating profit of $10/share on 60,000 Model S and Model X.
    Aug 25, 2013. 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even Elon Musk Thinks Tesla Stock Is Overpriced [View article]
    Regardless of your pessimistic assumptions (all such assumptions made in the past ten years about Tesla have been wrong), here is the simplistic case that can be made for Tesla and why, if true, the stock is reasonably priced at $161. Assuming 25,000 deliveries this year, 40,000 in '14, 60,000 in '15, 100,000 in 16, 125,000 in 17 as they transition to the mass market EV, and 250,000 for 2018. (Remember, the plant they have can produce well over 400,000 vehicles.) Assume further that the average price is 85,000 for 2013, $90,000 for 14, 15 and 16 (combo of the Model S and Model X), then down to $75,000 and then to $55,000 for 2017 & 18. Operating margins at 20% in 2013, 25% in 14, 28% in 15, 30% in 16 and 17, then down to 25% in 2018. Assume that additional capital will be raised, increasing shares to 175,000,000 from the current 121,000,000 (that will give them $7 billion if sold at an average of $300, $3.5 billion if sold at current pricing, enough capital to do whatever they want). These assumptions push operating earnings to $19.50 a share in 2018, a steady progression of 68% per year simple with 22% in the last year. So what kind of multiple do you put on a stock with this kind of performance. Certainly a small premium, at least, to the S&P, say 20 times operating earnings? That's $393 per share. That's growth of about 40% per year simple. (By the way, this is the scenario - pushed out to 2020 - that JP Morgan must be using to get to their best cash current value of $150, using a 12% discount rate.) THAT'S the story that has caused the stock to get to where it is, and THAT'S the story that has your broker worried to death about your ability to cover the margin calls on your short position!
    Aug 25, 2013. 11:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Recharging Its Evaluation [View article]
    I don't know what kind of calculations you are performing, but they don't make sense. 1,000,000 vehicles at, say, $75,000 average each makes for $75B in sales; at a 25% operating margin, that's $18.75B in operating profit. That works out to $155/share in profit, the approximate trading price of the shares today. So you think one/half times future earnings is the right number? Really?
    Aug 24, 2013. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Insiders Are Selling Apple [View article]
    You can't make anything out of those sales if you don't know their option positions nor their family/trust holdings.
    Aug 5, 2013. 01:36 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The selloff in Tesla (TSLA -14.5%) gathers momentum following Goldman running the numbers and finding the stock deserves its valuation only in the best of scenarios. Volume in the shares today looks like it will end up at about 4x the average level. [View news story]
    Goldman's numbers were wonderful news if you really look at them; only his conclusions as to value (what does he or any other analyst in the world know about "value"?) sucked. His base case of $5.99 (don't you love those exact figures?) in earnings is the WORST case? Hallelujah! Please, don't throw me in that briar patch! Bullish case, implied earnings of $12+. Don't know in what universe investors will only pay 16 to 7 times those earnings. His "error" (in my judgment): the 20% discount rate. I don't know why one would discount those earnings at anything more than the average rate of return on equities.
    Jul 16, 2013. 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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