Peter Way Associates is the only known provider of the price range forecasts of widely-held, actively traded stocks derived from the hedging activities of market-making [MM] firms as they balance big-$-fund sellers and buyers in large block trades. The price ranges offer explicit downside exposure forecasts not commonly found in publicly published investment analyses.
This is all forward-looking data, based on what the MMs will pay for protection against coming unwanted price change while temporarily committed firm capital is exposed to market risks. It is available by modest subscription cost at blockdesk.com.
The behavioral analysis involved has been performed daily since Y2K, now on over 3,000 stocks, ETFs, and market indexes. That has built an actuarial history of how market prices have subsequently behaved following several million price range forecasts, issue by issue.
That data provides a qualitative backdrop to current forecasts in terms of odds of profitable positions, size of prospective gains, credibility of forecasts, and worst-case price drawdown exposure experiences.
Peter F. Way is a veteran Chartered Financial Analyst, having taken and passed the CFA Institute’s required 3 examinations in the first years they were given, 40+ years ago.
Armed with BS in Economics from the Wharton School and an MBA degree from Harvard Business School, he has managed staffs of dozens of Investment Researchers and Quantitative Analysts for the nation’s largest bank, arbitraged index options for NYSE Specialists, and managed portfolios of hundred-million-dollar equity investments for Fortune 100 corporate pension funds and non-profit endowments.
He has been elected President of professional Investment Analyst Societies in San Diego and New York City and has served on the editorial boards of the Financial Analysts Journal and the CFA Digest. He has spoken at numerous schools and professional meetings.
Publisher of options newsletter TerrysTips.com since 2001.. Thirty years experience trading options virtually every day. including stint as seat holder and market maker on the C.B.O.E. MBA from Harvard Business School and DBA from Univ. of Virginia Darden School. Author of Making 36%: Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year, In Good Years and Bad (4th revision - 2012) and Coffee Can Investing: A Better Idea Than Mutual Funds in an IRA or 401(K), 2014.
TerrysTips.com is a newsletter that carries out eight different option portfolios which many subscribers mirror on their own or through auto-trade at several brokers who make all the same trades in individual customer accounts. Each portfolio offers something different (bullish, neutral, or bearish),and different underlyings (GOOG, SPY, SVXY, and other individual companies).
In 2005, the S.E.C. brought an action against Terry Allen, claiming that he was managing money for people without being a registered investment advisor because of the auto-trade service offered by several brokers who placed trades in their customer accounts based on Terry’s Tips newsletter recommendations. A second complaint was for a single statement on his website that they believed was incorrect and therefore fraudulent.
Although two large law firms assured Dr. Allen that if he went to court on the first issue, he would win because there was a Supreme Court decision stating that investment newsletters are exempt from registration requirements - it would be a violation of their First Amendment rights. However, they estimated that his legal expenses would be greater than settling with the S.E.C. (and a year or two of his time tied up in court proceedings), and both firms recommended that he accept the settlement offer while not admitting any guilt.
The second issue (fraud) involved a single statement that was true when it was written but a couple of years later, option prices fell to 10-year lows, and it was no longer true. The S.E.C. argued that the statement was not removed from the website in a timely enough fashion.
For the past eight years since the settlement with the S.E.C., Dr. Allen has have been publishing the Terry’s Tips newsletter (and recommendations are executed in customer accounts at thinkorswim by TD Ameritrade through their Auto-Trade program), and the S.E.C. has not objected to any of his activities.
Jeff is the President of NewArc Investments Inc., manager of both individual and institutional investments. Jeff is a registered investment advisor, and portfolio manager for NewArc's investment programs. Jeff is a former college professor with a hands-on, real world attitude. His quantitative modeling helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. A Public Policy analyst, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, and analyzed many issues related to state tax policy. Jeff began in the financial business as Research Director for trading firm at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He investigated anomalies in the standard option pricing models, taught classes for beginning options traders, and developed new forecasting techniques. In 1991 he established a general research consultancy, working with professional traders at all of the Chicago financial exchanges. In 1998 he started NewArc Investments, Inc. Jeff has a commitment to the specific needs of individual investors. It is not a one-size-fits all approach, but one that emphasizes the unique circumstances of each client. Jeff also serves on the board of two small technology companies (currently Chairman at one). He is occasionally as an expert witness in legal cases involving financial markets and hedging.
I'm a pediatric physical therapist doing early intervention with kids up to age 3. I got interested in options to try to do some catching up as I face retirement in a few years. First year or so was rough, but I'm trying hard to move into the ranks of profitable traders.
I'm a poker player and see many similarities in risk analysis for poker and trading.
I live in the woods in Northern Michigan where a river flows on one side of me and there's a lake on another. I kayak and ski out my door.
I like short duration trades since they reduce risk. I'm concentrating on pre-earnings IV trades and am interested in learning some high probability day trades. I think it's easier to hit a lot of singles than home runs.
Bill is Chief Investment Officer of Luby Asset Management LLC, an investment management company in Tiburon, California. He also publishes the VIX and More (http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/) blog and an investment newsletter. His research and trading interests focus on volatility, market sentiment, technical analysis, ETPs and options. Bill was previously a business strategy consultant. When not trading or blogging, he can often be found running, hiking, and kayaking in Northern California. Bill has a BA from Stanford University and an MBA from Carnegie-Mellon University. Visit Bill's blog, VIX and More (http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/)
Kim Klaiman is a full time options trader and founder of SteadyOptions.com. He trades mostly non-directional strategies, like pre-earnings strangles and iron condors. Likes to trade strategies with negative correlation. He lives in Toronto, Canada. Visit the SteadyOptions.com forum. SteadyOptions offers a combination of a high quality education and actionable trade ideas using variety of Non-Directional option trading strategies for Steady and Consistent Profits. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SteadyOptions_ SteadyOptions performance: https://steadyoptions.com/performance
I have worked in the financial service industry for 40 years. My area of expertise is risk management and complex financial products. I have been a frequent speaker, on behalf of many financial firms, to financial professionals across the country.
I have extensive experience in statistics and actuarial science.
Options trader full-time, author, owner of www.kevinmobrien.com, a subscription-based trading service. Born in Chicago, IL. I trade many stocks in the tech, financial, and agricultural sectors. Trade daily with a 5 Technical Indicator Strategy I developed, the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS). Also trade many debit spreads for weekly and earnings-based trades such as Strangles, the Reverse Iron Condor, the Neutral Calendar Spread and also hold long-term call and put options on undervalued stocks and ETF's.
If you are interested in subscribing to the website's Trading Forum, please visit us at www.kevinmobrien.com.
Favorite stocks to trade: CF, GOOG, AAPL, NFLX, BIDU, CMG, PCLN, RIMM, CSCO, IDCC, POT, MOS, MON, SNDK, APA, and many more.
I'm a big Chicago Bears and Blackhawks fan.
Philstockworld.com is the fastest growing stock and option newsletter on the Web. "High Finance for Real People - Fun and Profits" is our motto and our Basic and Premium Chat Sessions offer readers a chance to speak to Phil live during the trading day as well as authors like Optrader, Sabrient, Income Trader and Trend Trader - who send out Alerts during the market sessions and discuss trade ideas live with Members.
We even have a new low-cost "Trend Watcher" Membership that lets readers view our chat sessions without directly participating a great solution for people who want to test-drive the site and profit from our experience! Trend Watchers get to view all of our Chat Archives, weekly Webinars - as well as the amazing PSW Wiki, which gives you Phil's recent opinions and trade ideas as well as technical and fundamental analysis of hundreds of stocks that we follow.
Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks).
Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)