Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Trolin's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Does Someone Have Bad News About Amarin? [View article]
    Wow.. What analogies.. There are several possible "reasons" for the selloff,
    1. Biotech sector is getting destroyed the last 2 days, looking at small caps its a bloodbath.
    2. Lots of retail longs on margin for the "adcom runup".
    3. Dillution money being taken off before adcom.
    4. A bit like 2, but risk being taken of the table in an unordily (not according to plan fashion) pre adcom.
    All these factors should be more relevant than for example that the conclusions of a meeting not yet held being "leaked"..
    Oct 9 11:52 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drop The Anchor And Fish For Profits [View article]
    Vascepa is already at 10% of NRx's vs Lovaza, imlpying a "true" marketshare of atleast 10% already. I say atleast, because alot of the NRx's counted are really "old users" refilling in a new period. New scripts written are probably well beyond 10% for Vascepa. V and L are consolidation drugs used for long periods of time, thats part of the reason why penetration is not instant but ramping (and doing a very good job at it for Vascepa).
    Oct 2 10:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Amarin Bear Is Throwing In The Towel [View article]
    This bull certainly hasn't missed the most important contribution of the current sales force. Adding hundreds of new doctors prescribing Vascepa each week. My reasoning is that once A is approved (if), Amarin won't have to spend a fortune on Advertising and hire a huge salesforce. Sales will snowball even faster, Amarin can safely add say 200 reps after approval of A (adding only 50M$/year in costs), and as sales grow add another 200 reps a quarter or so ahead, totalling 675 reps, which should be more than enough. This without needing extra cash, the salesforce will pay for itself, just like the current one has accomplished in only 8 months.
    Sep 23 12:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Anchor Will Hold As Vascepa's Sails Unfurl [View article]
    You give Adam F way too much credit. I have interacted with him numerous times know, and he gets his "facts" from the blue ALOT of the times. He does great due dilligence at time, i agree, but he can also come up with an article 5 minutes after he had input he likes (fits his bias/agenda with a stock). He proclaimed all fishoil dead after the so called "italian study" for example, that suited his agenda perfectly, but certainly had no clinical merit.
    Jun 21 05:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Anchor Will Hold As Vascepa's Sails Unfurl [View article]
    Crestor+ obviously has serious competition. As $AMRN plans to launch Vascepa+ with crestor as soon as Crestor becomes generic, and its already patented. AMRN is one step ahead there too.
    Jun 21 06:50 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Is Dead With Or Without ANCHOR [View article]
    This is what we know for certain about the performance of scripts: Tracking extremely well for only a bit more than 4 months into the launch. Many doctors will likely want to try the drug and see bloodwork from patients before they become "true believers". CV docs are not your average hematologist who will (by necessity) prescribe the latest drug day 1. Launch is tracking inline with analyst expectations for Q2, which i doubt any disbelievers would have betted on just a few months ago.
    Jun 21 06:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Is Dead With Or Without ANCHOR [View article]
    Very objective, take 5 datapoints that suit the purpose. Disregard data that doesn't fit. Fact is, in the same timeperiod you use. TRx's (total scripts went from 2989 to 3879. Or a 30% increase in just 5 weeks, Whilst NRx's were up "only" 6.5%. But include one more datapoint and NRx's would be up 16%, and another week 32%. Statistics can be skewed to anyones liking. Only indisputable fact is that scripts are trending upwards. If you only look at NRx's, you can also see that Vascepa has captured a lot more marketshare than TRx's suggest, as Lovazas NRx's/week are at about 30000 vs TRx's 90000. As another quarter goes by, V's TRx vs NRx ratio should normalize and total scripts are bound to grow even without any growth at all in NRx's. Theres another huge flaw in using NRx's only, noone knows the validity of the data, there is clearly some misrepresentation of new scripts/refills.
    Jun 21 05:53 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Amarin Eyes On Sunday's Prescription Data [View article]
    Noone cares about weekly data? I know one AF who would LOVE to rub in a few weeks of bad data in the longs faces. You choose sides, and should not lecture anyone on how to write.
    May 26 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Amarin Eyes On Sunday's Prescription Data [View article]
    Even the source is WRONG.
    May 26 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: It's The Strategy, Not The Science [View article]
    Why even bother writing another article revolving around the Italian supplements study. It's dead, buried. Not a single analyst brought it up during the conference call, why? Because it is irrelevant, its apples and oranges, everyone knew it and noone wanted to look like a fool.
    May 20 09:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Adding To My Amarin Short Position [View article]
    Haha, "So, what we're looking at, in essence, is one massive overlooked caveat that nobody from the long camp really noticed." . Thats hilarious, theres NOTHING that's been so much discussed as the NME/NCE/IP status. Bottom line is, Amarin has a very strong patent portfolio. The sheer number of patents issued and pending is huge. NME/NCE is a bonus, if nme/nce was the only protection for a drug, it would certainly give any drug a very short lifespan without generic competition. Feuerstein said he found something "new" and for longs to stay tuned. And this was it? Wow, noone knew they weren't awarded NME/NCE yet!!? What a joke. Even they aren't awarded NME/NCE they have the patents which are more important for the lifespan of the drug.
    Apr 22 02:48 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vascepa Scripts Likely Much Higher Than Early IMS Report [View instapost]
    In earlier article he stated 3x. So i believe it was meant to say 3-4x. Not 3-400. Maybe thought % but wrote X. Adam Feuerstein enjoyed it though.
    Mar 27 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amarin Is Struggling So Much [View article]
    Your conclusions are logical, although i find it a bit flawed to draw a conclusion of the launch when the data we see are less than 2 months into the launch. Last script data was for week ending 15/3. Drug was launched 28th of january. There is still 2 weeks to be reported before even reaching 2 full months. Joe/Amrn asked for time until the 1Q call (beginning of may?) to judge the launch, which i think is a valid timepoint for making some kind of educated guess on the success of the launch. There are many unknowns still, how many free prescriptions are handed out not showing up in the IMS data, how many doctors are actually called on yet, it should take a full quarter before the reps even had a chance to visit every doctor once, and at least 4 months for the doctors to have had their patients check in. With these and alot of other factors i find it a bit naive to think that AMRN would capture a big chunk of the market from the getgo, it will be a process. As Lovaza and Vascepa becomes equal in reimbursement pace should pick us aswell, we now know that medco/express scripts started tier2 coverage of vascepa around the 15th of march, that will ofcourse also take som time to "go through the system", but to get tier2 from one of the largest insurers after just 1.5 months is a big leap.
    Mar 26 08:01 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Vascepa Sales Data Misleading [View instapost]
    I believe the free scripts were 30-day presxriptions?
    Mar 25 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Descent To $5 [View article]
    Yes im long AMRN, and been long sppi since the 4's. I trade daily but i have accumulated a large long position in AMRN in the low 8's. Love the case. HZNP isn't a stock im following. But Orexo is, which has a pdufa date in july for Zubsolv, a reformulation of Reckits billion-dollar drug Suboxone. AMRN is my biggest position at the moment. I take 90% e-epa twice a day, which is about 1/4th the dose of vascepa (1,3 grams/day). This costs me 60$/month out of pocket, if i was prescribed vascepa, that would be 25$ for 4*the dose co-pay. So why then buy OTC?
    Mar 10 03:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment