Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View reasonable2's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Rail Traffic And Jobless Claims Still Point To Expansion [View article]
    Thanks Cullen.

    Subjectivity in assessing the economy seems inevitable, as "all politics are local" perhaps "all economics are personal". Still, I appreciate your help in making concrete assessments based on broader indicators I can't "see". Rail traffic does show demand.

    The Midwestern Corn and Soybean farmer has had some good years recently, but prices have now dropped below input costs and land, seed, fertilizer and chemical have all gone up and grain supplies will undoubtedly "bust the bins" this year. Plentiful rains have produced a bumper crop from Illinois Iowa and Minnesota all the way through Nebraska. Rail cars are scarce for shipping because of oil from the Dakota. A glut of both grain and oil makes rail cars hard to get in a reliable time frame.

    Midwestern Agriculture will be taking a hit this year, and along with it farm implement sales and local supporting businesses through the heartland.

    The strong dollar aggravates the situation as exports are so expensive to overseas markets.

    That said, cheap grain helps livestock producers, value-added food products and it makes food less expensive in general.

    On another note. Have you written about the (new?) Regional and Metropolitan GDP data offerings? How valuable do you think these will be in supporting accurate analytic vision for investors and governments? The objective and verifiable indicators counteract emotional views of the economy. We could use all the good ones we can get.
    Sep 30 08:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Does The Power Of The Hard Money/Fiscal Austerity Orthodoxy Persist? [View article]
    Thank you Cullen,

    Keep trying to clarify and enlighten, even though it seems mythology is still winning.

    I can only hope no populist amateur mechanics decide to "fix" our economy in a way that it ceases to provide growth or stability.

    There are too many folks that have adopted the "evil government and its evil spending" as a baseline of their beliefs.

    Maybe a history of banking crises and the role of the U.S. Government's monetary system in saving us (over and over) would help garner some appreciation of what we have.

    Still it is a common perception that a government job, a government contract or even a government worker all contribute a different kind of dollar to the economy. People think their government is not contributing real value.

    The fervency and self-assurance of the populists just makes it all the more frightening.

    Your work is cut out for you Mr. Roche.
    Sep 2 08:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Secular Stagnation' Theory Is Massively Overblown [View article]
    GDP= Consumer Spending + Government Spending + Investment + (exports-Imports)

    Current Congressional fiscal policies reduce every single component of GDP! These are self-inflicted wounds.

    Growth, not inflation, is the way out!
    Aug 18 08:13 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On Commodities As An Asset Class [View article]
    Thank you Cullen.

    I have held a bias passed along to me by my dad who said, "In every commodity transaction there is a winner and a loser. One dollar gained is someone else's dollar lost."

    I don't know if that is true, but that has made me stay clear of trading in anything I don't actually produce. I think farmers need to hedge inputs and products to be assured of minimizing risk, as do those needing a future supply of any commodity in their own processes.

    The Hunt brothers famously lost in an attempt to corner silver many years back, but I'm not sure Goldman Sachs agrees with this. I have read that they can manipulate the actual commodity in their own favor for profits.
    Aug 16 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has U.S. Inflation Accelerated? [View article]
    Past years of drought cut cattle herds, while California drought directly affects vegetables.
    Jun 19 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Food Stamp Usage Is Cratering And That Might Be A Bad Sign [View article]
    Thank you for pointing out the results of the Farm Program cuts.

    One in seven Americans is now receiving SNAP.

    Poorer states, like Mississippi, have as many as 22% of their citizens receiving SNAP.

    States can discourage use of the program, or actually try to find elligible people who are not signed up. California makes it hard to apply and be approved, despite the Federal money involved.

    One political party seems to think the SNAP program makes the children lazy and dependent, so they would like more cuts to the program.

    Economists must agree that the health and welfare of the population can be a bigger cost to the economy if benefits that mitigate recessionary cycles are stingy or are cut too much before prosperity returns.

    Fraud politically motivates some to eliminate the programs altogether.

    These folks are not Keynesians.
    Jun 18 10:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Hated Economic Recovery Ever [View article]
    I hope you are nobody's adviser. You seem overly negative.

    There are imbalances and international tax issues, and there is a labor market affected by increased automation and productivity versus the plight of aging and unskilled workers.

    However, Doom is not evident.
    Jun 17 09:06 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Hated Economic Recovery Ever [View article]
    Thanks for that post.

    Please pass along your wisdom to your political officers and leaders.

    I think it is urgent that Congress see the need for infrastructure and investment spending. The House, especially is sabotaging our future with excuses about debt and revenues.
    Jun 17 09:01 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Longer Will The Dollar Remain The Reserve Currency Of The World? [View article]
    Ya, good points all.

    What I meant to say is the implications of interest rate increases for no good reason is not frugal, not responsible, and not "conservative".

    It shows disregard for our fiscal house.

    That is stupid and frightening.
    Jun 11 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Longer Will The Dollar Remain The Reserve Currency Of The World? [View article]
    Thanks for the topic Cullen.

    Especially when debt ceiling fiascos, austerity games and general reckless fiscal attitudes hold such sway in the U.S. House, I have feared for the loss of the USD as Reserve. The damage to our credit rating wasn't even considered serious. Who would invest in a U.S. with these attitudes and policies?

    Geithners' new book seems to say the Treasury and Fed people were terrified too of the contingent that thought it would help Main Street to "let them (Wall Street Banks) all go down".

    I'm a little reassured by your thoughts today.
    Jun 11 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T settles Al Jazeera lawsuit [View news story]
    [from the link to Reuters]
    "The parties have agreed to a settlement and jointly asked the judge, Sam Glasscock, to dismiss the case."

    "An AT&T spokesperson declined to comment."
    Jun 10 07:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Should Not Buy DirecTV [View article]
    $31.7 Billion reasons in DirecTV revenues. DirecTV is a license to steal.
    May 9 08:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Keynesian' Myths And Misunderstandings [View article]
    Your assertion takes a huge leap in the somewhat nebulous "...leads to the government supporting everything hence socialism...."

    "Artificial economy" too seems like a term begging for definition.

    I read Cullen's piece and found it to be almost the opposite of what he has just explained. Government spending surely doesn't "support everything", and everything the government buys, it buys from the private sector.

    I thought it worked like this, where GDP is economic output.

    GDP=Consumer spending+Government spending+Investment+

    Grocers know the cuts in SNAP immediately will affect their sales. Are you implying there is something inherently wrong about Government spending and that SNAP is picking "winners" while those who don't get SNAP are "losers"?

    General Dynamics knows Government procurement will have a direct effect in hiring or layoffs, and the market verifies that.

    Experiments and grants at the NIH were "sequestered" in their funding, and an immediate effect is loss of results as experiments degrade or die. One scientists work can make enormous economic growth, or fail.

    Sorry if I can't seem to explain better why I think your understanding of "government spending" is completely wrong.
    Mar 10 10:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China Set For Its Own 'Lost Decade'? [View article]
    Today's China is hardly comparable.
    Feb 28 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Anti-Scientific Foundation Of Macroeconomics [View article]
    Kudos to your understanding and explanation of the "full form" of the Friedman quote.

    But isn't the other component of the inflation phenomena "too few goods"?

    We are way below our productive capacity, AND demand is limited by persistent low wages.
    Jan 13 05:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment