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  • Microsoft At $49: Is It Overvalued? [View article]
    It can be said that sentiment + fundamentals = a crowded trade! It too offers its own risk reward dynamic, there is no "free-lunch"!

    That's what makes a trade, me on one side, (you) on the other, my Microsoft profits and dividends have been realized over a long period, I have no problem using the "sell" button.

    At or near a 52wk high maintain 1/4 to 1/2 position; at or near 52wk low maintain 3/4 to "full-on" position; rinse and repeat. It's called trading around a core position.

    Hopefully this does not make you a short-seller, there is not enough volatility to create a credible reason to short Microsoft. Too many long term camped-out shareholders building div-yield portfolios out of it. Then there is the “mutual fund Monday” dumb money crowd that must buy it to mirror the index they track. Not to mention the smart money managers who manage multi-billion dollar funds that only have a handful of stocks to play in without owning something; they need Microsoft sized slippers to slide into (and other large cap co.’s.) to move the needle of their massive hedge funds as needed. Never short something you don’t like or something with a bad chart, short bad balance sheets or disastrous leadership; if you get both, that’s the golden goblet of shorting.

    May your trades and investments be profitable!
    Nov 20 08:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft At $49: Is It Overvalued? [View article]

    @Steve Rasher,

    We've been repeating the same reasoning for a few years now, enterprise (both the purse string pullers and the IT guys) want an end-to-end boxed solution that leverages assets and training they already poses. In large cap tech, that's an open door for MSFT.

    It's not about whether you like MSFT or think their products are better or worse than the other guy's, MSFT basically has to sit idle and give this opportunity away. If they just develop something competent and relatively cost efficient to roll out (and they have) they will see a steady uptick in enterprise mobile share.

    I've always found it shocking just how many people maintain a negative position on this just based entirely on them wanting MSFT to fail. Seriously, there are better things you can do with hostile aggression; like fight human injustice. MSFT is just a business and if nobody has been paying attention...Google and Apple thanks to their new found fortunes have become just as monopolistic, manipulative and in some cases as bug-laden in development as Microsoft ever was (ok, in the case of bug-laden perhaps that’s a stretch ;-) but Apple has been somewhat sloppy lately).

    All three companies have solid tech futures, competition should breed a win for consumers and opportunities for investors. Behind closed doors, over the years Apple and Microsoft have made more silent agreements than most people will ever know of. Google can't do this yet because they haven't been hated long enough to understand the merits of frenemy deals but seeing as how public ire is rising toward them I imagine that's coming.

    Still long MSFT.
    Nov 20 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft At $49: Is It Overvalued? [View article]
    CCS Insight: Businesses are gravitating to Windows Phone -

    ""Mobile News reports that analyst firm CCS Insight says that businesses are gravitating towards the Windows OS due to its lower costs and easy integration with back-end systems, and this will see it overtake BlackBerry and Android to become the second most used OS in enterprise within the next 2 years.

    In June 2014 Nokia’s Windows Phone already had 18% of the UK enterprise market, compared to iOS with 35%, and Windows Phone UK Director Leila Martine said it was aiming to become the most used operating system in the UK B2B market by mid-2015.

    CSS Insight also had some other bold predictions.

    “Sony, LG and Lenovo will start making Windows phones again. In a quest for differentiation from Samsung and the army of Chinese Android device makers, LG and Sony could launch Windows phones.”

    “LG may take up Windows Phone again as a way to distance itself from domestic rival Samsung. Windows Phone will allow Lenovo to exploits its strong connections with Microsoft and a large presence in the enterprise market. All three manufacturers could receive significant incentives from Microsoft.”

    The claims were made as CCS released its yearly forecasts for 2015 and beyond at an event held in London on November 20.

    CCS Insight CEO Shaun Collins said: “2015 is set to be the year of massive shake-ups within the media and telecoms technology sector.”"
    Nov 20 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Targets The Corporate Market For Non-Ad Revenues [View article]
    .@Office365 becomes the first #cloud-based communication and collaboration service to obtain #FedRAMP authorization:
    Nov 20 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Audi Confirms 300-Mile Range EV, Plans To Compete With Tesla [View article]

    Touché! The Empire Strikes Back!

    I can't wait to see the press releases for the "Zombie" killers that all the auto manufacturers are going to make, but for now all the CEOs are targeting Tesla. As for the threat of a Zombie apocalypse, well I think AMC networks has an answer for that ;-)

    Nonetheless your point is well taken! The Zombie was an impressive accomplishment, they made a point; Musk, perhaps one-day will make a profit; or at least a substantial amount of automotive change needed in the industry.
    Nov 20 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft At $49: Is It Overvalued? [View article]
    The only things that ever makes stock equities go up and down are buying and selling (you perhaps need to do some "what makes a market?" homework!)

    Now, since the buying and selling are done by market participants, the next lesson of the day is what "moves" market participants?

    The answer is mostly "sentiment"!

    That sentiment can be created, nurtured and even changed by a great deal of variables and undoubtedly valuation is one of them, and in the process of analytics, analysts would move their targets around based on FCF, thus generating a body of work that once sold to clients and spoon fed to the public generates sentiment; but nonetheless, someone still must press buy or sell even if it's done by algorithm.

    Now we're back to grandpa’s axioms, “something is at least momentarily worth exactly what someone else is willing to pay for it”! And today they are paying up for MSFT despite your FCF analysis. As for has never been promised to you now has it ;-)
    Nov 20 12:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Audi Confirms 300-Mile Range EV, Plans To Compete With Tesla [View article]
    A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away…

    Oops…wrong opening!

    A short time ago, on a YouTube channel…

    …you could type in Tesla vs…. and press <enter/> and you’d get a list of videos showing a Tesla smoking many popular production cars and effectively pimp-slapping that manufacturer’s street credibility.

    Yes, the model “S” only had at top speed of 130 Mph, but street credibility for auto racing is all about the ¼ mile, and all you need to win –that… is acceleration and traction!

    A high performance all electric vehicle has an advantage in the ¼ mile, with the exception being at the extreme end of exotic sports cars where Porsche, Lamborghini, Bugatti, Ferrari and special models of Corvette’s and Mercedes can manage to muscle their way to a win (however at an extreme price-to-performance differential).

    So, what’s my point? Two words… Training Day!

    The big 3 U.S.: General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler and…
    The big 3 Euro: Audi (owned by Volkswagen), Mercedes-Benz (owned by Daimler AG) and BMW and…
    Who can forget: Toyota

    All of the above are suddenly trying to do electric as something other than a subsidy play, why? Well, if you were a CEO, CFO, head of Engineering and Design or other leader at one of these companies and you had to talk to your customers, contacts, peers, family and friends as well as journalist, bloggers and pundits all day every day and the “ONE” question you get asked over…and over…and over again is, “WHEN ARE YOU GUY’S GONNA GO AFTER TESLA” you’d do something about it too!

    You don’t believe me, do some homework off-of-the-record, within the inner circle corporate walls, at home, at the dinner table and in the hot seat on the big conference calls it is one of the top topics of conversation. Tesla has stolen the pulse of consumers for conversations about automobiles and the leaders of the automotive industry feel threatened and are prepping their response.

    Think about it, Tesla’s market share certainly isn’t worth their effort to compete with, it is the image problem this represents that has prompted a response.

    Now here comes the BOOM! Alonzo Harris: “I've been planning this all week, son.”

    The forthcoming dual motor Tesla will give it an acceleration that will spark an all new long list of YouTube videos where a few of those Exotic cars that got a “pass” with the model “S” might receive a “fail” from the Tesla Model S P85D. Exotic car makers don’t do volume, they do margin, and unlike the Big 7 production model kings, they can’t afford to lose their street credibility from a pimp-slappin’ from Musk. So, you think they aren’t scared…do some homework…

    Have a spare $847,000? Porsche goes electric

    Porsche, Mercedes building electric cars to challenge Tesla

    …and what about the Big 7 names in the auto industry, yep they all want a piece of the Musk man…

    Ford says it could build a Tesla

    So the arguments that many traders, investors, pundits and analysts are making suggesting that Tesla will not have this market alone but will have massive competition are correct! However, it’s pretty amazing that Tesla; only selling a hand full of cars a year can force the Big 7 auto names and the world’s most exotic automakers to all pour massive allocations of capital into designing, developing and producing electric vehicles. Even more amazing is the exponential growth in the electric powered vehicle market this will create, all because of a few embarrassing YouTube videos!

    You know what’s most amazing of all? The crap-pile of batteries the worlds going to need to literally and figuratively fuel this massive growth!

    I wonder where they’ll get all those freaking batteries from, can Panasonic handle the demand? Are there enough ancillary players in batter technology development and production to satisfy the demand that’s coming online? I sure wish someone would have thought of this beforehand and perhaps planned to build a massive technology shop and production facility for batteries…oh…wait… ;-)

    “The $hit's chess, it ain't checkers!” -Alonzo Harris (a.k.a Denzel Washington) Training Day!
    Nov 20 12:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia launches 7.9" Android tablet; shares +3.4% [View news story]

    “Nokia is a global company”

    That does not mean they don’t effect the Finnish economy and it certainly does not mean they can’t be affected by the Finnish economy specifically and the Eurozone in general.

    (The Nokia effect)

    << NOKIA contributed a quarter of Finnish growth from 1998 to 2007, according to figures from the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA). Over the same period, the mobile-phone manufacturer’s spending on research and development made up 30% of the country’s total, and it generated nearly a fifth of Finland’s exports. In the decade to 2007, Nokia was sometimes paying as much as 23% of all Finnish corporation tax. No wonder that a decline in its fortunes—Nokia’s share price has fallen by 90% since 2007, thanks partly to Apple’s ascent—has clouded Finland’s outlook.>>

    (Finland and the euro crisis)

    << The Finns suffered a much sharper recession than the Swedes, and Finland’s recovery has been less ebullient. Moreover, the Finnish economy has stumbled of late: GDP fell by 1% in the second quarter in Finland, whereas it rose by 1.4% in Sweden. There were special reasons why the Finnish economy contracted—in effect, growth had been brought forward to the first quarter as consumers bought cars early to avoid a tax rise. But GDP is now likely to expand by about 0.5% in 2012, says Markku Kotilainen of the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. In contrast, Swedish output will expand by 1.3%, according to Robert Bergqvist of SEB, a bank.

    In another telling comparison, Sweden continues to run a hefty current-account surplus (worth 7% of GDP in 2011) whereas Finland swung into deficit last year for the first time since 1993, a phenomenon noted with concern by Erkki Liikanen, the governor of the central bank. And whereas Finland’s public debt was lower than Sweden’s before the crisis, now it is higher.

    Some of this reflects setbacks to Nokia, Finland’s falling mobile-phone star.>>

    “Nokia's earnings do not seem to reflect your pessimism....q3 quadrupled from year ago.”

    Despite those earnings the stock still falls back to previous ranges on days the Eurozone has headline risk. Why?


    “Ericsson shares do not seem to reflect any such pessimism, in fact it has been up almost every day for the past 6 weeks, and that despite a disappointing q3 report.”

    OK, pull up a chart for 10 yrs. for (ERIC) and look for the U.S. financial crisis of 2007/2008 and watch (ERIC) fall off of a cliff. Now look at the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis of 2009/2010 and you’ll see that right after Ericson had bounced, it fell off of another cliff. So what have we learned, yes; geopolitical issues, headline risk and other GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRAP can affect the companies that must operate within them.



    There is nothing pessimistic about the truth it is merely the truth. I am not pessimistic about Nokia, I own the stock and I often use call options to capture upside pops after highly predictable drops due to Eurozone crap. I’m a Nokia bull, I’m just not devoid of understanding about how human beings trade markets, and hopefully neither are you!
    Nov 19 10:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia launches 7.9" Android tablet; shares +3.4% [View news story]
    The Eurozone woes are crippling…
    (The entire region)
    …which includes Finland.
    The woes in the Finnish economy are crippling…
    (NOK1V) Helsinki
    The woes of NOK1V: Helsinki are a drag on…
    (NOK) U.S. ADR
    …which trades in sympathy.

    If this story were just about the U.S. ADR and the U.S. traders trading the shares as either a spec play or an investment, I would argue that the stock would be at least 30% higher at this point. We would pump it as far as momentum would carry it. However you should also note that it would then be short-sold in massive amounts, but then it could have a major (BBRY) style bounce that they could fight over on CNBC ;-)

    In reality however, the sentiment surrounding the Finnish economy and the Eurozone seem to play a larger roll on Nokia sentiment than the prospects of the company itself.

    …and in other news, it’s getting awfully crowded out there…

    “Jolla Crowdfunds $380K+ To Build An iPad Alternative”

    “”Update: Well that was very fast indeed. Jolla’s Indiegogo campaign to build an open source iPad alternative — taking its Sailfish OS onto the tablet form factor — has passed its initial funding target of $380,000 with around 2,450 backers putting in cash. And it did so in double-quick time, taking just over two hours from the campaign’s launch. There’s still another 21 days left on the campaign so expect Jolla to flesh out some stretch goals. Original post follows below…

    You wait ages for some novelty in the tablet space and then two iPad alternatives poke their head above the parapet at once…

    Yesterday former mobile heavyweight Nokia announced it was getting back into the consumer electronics space with a $249 Android-based tablet — called the N1 — running its Z Launcher.

    Today fellow Finnish company, and mobile startup Jolla, has revealed the next step in its hardware journey: Jolla is also making a tablet, albeit The Jolla Tablet will be crowdfunded. So this is mostly a pitch for pre-orders right now, with the price-tag starting at $189 for the first 2,000 pledgers, and stepping up thereafter to $199 for another thousand backers.

    Jolla said its initial aim with the crowdfunding campaign is to get 2,000 people putting money down for the slate — so the funding target is $380,000, which is not an insignificant amount of cash required to make this dream to fly. But it’s a heck of a lot more modest than last year’s failed Ubuntu Edge $32M crowdfunder pipedream. If Jolla’s crowdfunding campaign succeeds it’s aiming to start shipping the tablet next June.””
    Nov 19 02:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft At $49: Is It Overvalued? [View article]
    In the past several years, the following companies or organized efforts were supposed to (in some cases) take majority share from Microsoft in at least one area of competition (and in other cases) or completely kill the entire Microsoft Company…


    And when a company or organization wouldn’t doom them, an event would suffice…

    TIoT (The Internet of Things)
    Open Source
    Commoditization of software

    In the case of companies that were MS killers, they traded at insane P\Es; in the case of organized efforts their free or low cost offerings would kill MS revenues or shrink MS margins. When the death of MS was going to be event driven it was about a sea-change that would make MS irrelevant or a trend that MS had missed that would prove lethal.

    Sure, valuation matters and at some point you end up putting a price tag on stuff; but one old school rule to never lose sight of is this, “something is at least momentarily worth exactly what someone else is willing to pay for it”! Right now, MS is still king of large cap tech and people are willing to pay up for something that won’t die in a market known for killing trades and investments with headlines, geopolitical bull crap and algorithm madness.

    The value proposition has had a mixed track record with the current market. Take a look at what happened to shareholders of Dell before it went private, and IBM with each passing earnings disappointment; they were continuously a value play until one day the value of the companies ended up declining to match the movement of the stocks. However on the other side of that proposition you have HP and that one (thus far) has worked out for its investors and bullish traders.

    Microsoft's stock action is suggesting that people who have been negative in terms of sentiment for a generation are waking up to the idea that Microsoft's survival skills might merit a reimagining of the value of the company’s future earnings. It is a contrarians; “contrarian” trade.

    Full disclosure:
    I’m still long MSFT (but much less long than 2 yrs. ago)
    Nov 18 06:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia launches 7.9" Android tablet; shares +3.4% [View news story]
    Now if they are selling R&D as a service and getting paid for licensing the brand name then that is a much better idea and use of resources than manufacturing and inventory build-up.

    We'll see how it goes!
    Nov 18 10:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Converging Nokia Is Good For Investment [View article]
    I have no doubt that this will be a well-made tablet and that Nokia is capable of producing excellent devices, however…

    The tablet market is a mess right now, overall it has slowed drastically. On the low end you have a commoditized war waged on price point, on the high end consumers are satisfied with the tablets they already have and temporary pent-up-demand has been satisfied by the new iPad line.

    The only new tablet products gaining traction other than the iPad refresh cycle are Surface Pro 3 tablets (and other hybrids running Windows 8.1) and that is only because of pent-up-demand for a tablet/laptop hybrid with the right specs at the right price and that demand will be short lived (enterprise and enterprise level consumers).

    I wish Nokia well and as a shareholder I’d love to see them succeed but…

    I’d rather they focus on developing new patented tech for licensing purposes, creating partnerships to leverage HERE with enterprise clients or preparing HERE to be sold (we can all argue whether or not it should be).

    Microsoft can continue to play this mobile game because they feel they have to and they have the cash and stamina to stick it out, I’m not sure this is the best use of cash and other resources or even the Nokia name, we shall see.
    Nov 18 09:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia roundup: Downgrade, hardware product, Einhorn [View news story]
    Nokia Adopts Android As Finnish Company Announces $249 N1 Tablet

    They just had to go and prove to people that Android would have been the right path for them...well I hope they are right, Because if they're wrong, they don't have Elop and MSFT to blame and neither do the shareholders.
    Nov 18 05:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Converging Nokia Is Good For Investment [View article]
    Much to my dismay...they are back into devices:
    Nov 17 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Converging Nokia Is Good For Investment [View article]
    More like: The Spotnicks – Falling like a rock
    Nov 17 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment