Valve, Steam, And The Threat To Your GameStop Investment [View article]
William,
The Xbox 360 since it's launch has been net positive. The recent article by Ben Cousins is full of misinformation and assumptions that were true in 2006 but not in 2013. He also attempts to lump Xbox and Xbox360 into the same fold. The first Xbox lost tremendous amounts of money while the current version has been net positive (although not greatly) over it's life cycle.
The Wii was sold at a profit from day 1 but the PS3, I'll give you - Sony made too many tweaks that simply didn't have broad appeal and were extremely costly (dual Cell processors for one) for both Sony and the consumer. Since Sony is moving away from their costly mistakes, and based on the early specs for the PS4, it looks like it's would be $300-350 to build on hardware alone at today's prices. I'm assuming Sony will get a bulk order discount on hardware parts and if they can launch it with a selling point in the $459-499 range, they'll probably come close to breaking even at launch (when you factor in development costs, overhead, etc).
There are other ways for consoles to make money from launch - Microsoft could expand their beta launch of financing the next Xbox with a 2 year commitment to Xbox Live. Similarly, Microsoft or Sony could enter into partnerships with telecos that offer their systems as cable box replacements but at a reduced price to the consumer with a 2 year commitment.
Coca-Cola: How Safe Is The Dividend? [View article]
Josh,
I think you're missing the forest through the trees. You take a snapshot that includes the great recession to show that debt is current outpacing dividend payouts ignoring the fact that from 2008-2010, credit was tight across the globe. It's not surprising in those years, KO took on less debt. Of course, this ignores the fact that debt isn't taken on to simply pay out dividends, it's taken to invest in the company and generate long term returns (look at their ROI, it's outstanding) and doing so at historically low rates while maintaining the status quo for dividends. That's smart business.
Coca-Cola: How Safe Is The Dividend? [View article]
Josh, I was just giving a historical valuation to KO to say that the stock/company was no where near it's peak. When it was trading with a PE of 50, it's growth prospects really weren't much different than today. You can make the argument that they're ahead of the industry but I would argue that's simply because they've been able to find and grow into new markets better than they're competitors so they're being rewarded for it.
Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
Sakelaris,
I'm just playing devil's advocate. Clearly you've got choice with Netflix on what to have and what not to have and it does come at a reduced cost relative to cable. However, there's a pretty steep loss in current content by choosing one over the other.
Food for thought: there are many out there that would and do pay for basic cable even if they don't have any premium service.
More food for though: cable internet allows anyone to pick up basic cable for free since it's coming in on the same line.
Valve, Steam, And The Threat To Your GameStop Investment [View article]
Derek, if it only grew 50%, that's a huge slowdown in growth for them. For seven years straight through 2011, it grew sales at greater than 100% every single year. http://onforb.es/HAEKpO
Valve, Steam, And The Threat To Your GameStop Investment [View article]
William, what evidence is that? Pontifications from analysts? Articles by journalistic hacks.
The combined worldwide console sales in the last generation exceeded by tens of millions any previous generation (250M). Each CoD infusion generates greater entertainment launch revenue than anything Hollywood can come up with. The biggest difference between this past generation of machines and previous ones is that there was no clear winner (in terms of sales).
All you're seeing now is that the current generation console sales are dropping because they've reached the end of their effective life cycle and will probably need a price cut to boost sales through another year or two while Sony and Microsoft ramp up their next gen efforts. Even the WiiU, largely viewed as a failed launch managed to sell 4M units in a quarter without a single blockbuster title to drive people to buy it. Build the games, and people will buy the systems.
Coca-Cola: How Safe Is The Dividend? [View article]
Josh,
KO's current PE is 20.5 with a forward PE of under 18. It has traded over 50 in the past. I've taken advanced math courses all the way through graduate school and not a single one ever described 20 as near 50.
Now if you want to say it's stock price is trading near all time highs, that's a different story but a stock price is pretty much meaningless without the context of share float and earnings per share.
Not to belabor things but you should consider that if there is a market correction, it's the high fliers (the AMZNs, NFLXs) that face the biggest correction, not stocks with relatively modest PE valuations.
Coca-Cola: How Safe Is The Dividend? [View article]
Josh,
I think it's more of a case of KO taking on debt while they can when rates remain at historic lows rather than taking on debt simply to finance dividends. KO's dividend is rock solid and has been for decades.
Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
Sakelaris,
You cannot get Netflix for $20 with streaming and two DVDs. How do you suppose you're going to connect to the internet? Are you going to troll McDonalds and Starbucks and mooch off their free Wifi? No, you're going to use your home internet connection which will run anywhere from $30-70 a month depending on your location and service providers available or you're going to pay through the nose to watch it over a mobile connection.
So really, you're looking at $50-90 just to stream Netflix and watch at least 2 DVDs at a time. IMO, that's a pretty hefty price and not the least bit attractive for what Netflix offers relative to cable/satellite.
I'm in the same boat as KISS - I watch sports and HBO. I don't have any love for the cable industry but I know that I can generally count on getting to watch what I want and with new streaming initiatives (HBO GO, Showtime Anytime, as well as the standard HULU, CBS online, and FX online), I can watch what I want when I want. I used to subscribe to Netflix and even tried again recently but found little that improved upon options I already had available. Even at $8 a month, it wasn't even remotely worth it for me. I may eventually get around to watching AD again but it's not something I'm burning to see.
Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
Bill,
The article was clearly bearish. When you put company "news" in quotation marks, it's clearly meant to be sarcastic.
When you finish an article with " I've argued that Netflix uses a lot of numbers to make themselves look better than they really are, and this is the latest one in my opinion.", you can't really construe anything you wrote as bullish.
Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
Marc,
Youtube is very wild west like but there is a ton of legally produced content on there - mostly centered around music and the music scene. It's become the 2010s version of what MTV was in the 1980s. I suspect at some point, Youtube will be split into two - one being the user uploaded content (which will contain loads of bootlegged stuff) and one being officially licensed content. How Google handles the split will determine how they will give Netflix a run for their money.
Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
imac007, Netflix does some things extremely well - their software engineering is top notch.
Despite the press releases, they aren't really creating their own content. They are paying a very hefty fee for streaming exclusivity only. Nothing is preventing makers of House of Cards or Lillyhammer (or any future Netflix 'originals') from selling their content to others. In fact, House of Cards will be available on DVD starting June 11 and Lillyhammer has been available from a number of different providers around the globe.
The Basic Business Sense Netflix Bears Refuse To Grasp [View article]
510, You really do need to read better. While I don't count a marketing blog as 'proof' when it's corroborated with a source like Reuters (in a link which I provided) says on HBO Go: "The service has about 6.5 million registered users, compared with more than 100 million for HBO's main service globally.", I tend to believe they're not blowing smoke up my ass.
As for your Wikipedia deduction. It's completely wrong. Follow the links dude - Wikipedia sources Time Warner which verifies the 114M number:
Approximately 114 million HBO and Cinemax premium pay and basic cable subscribers worldwide (includes unconsolidated joint ventures) (2013) -Yes, it's combined HBO/Cinemax but the Cinemax as a stand alone doesn't have anywhere near the reach, brand, or penetration that HBO does, therefore I'm taking 100M as a pretty solid number verified by multiple sources including Time Warner.
But please continue to just focus on US subscribers and ignore the fact that HBO doesn't have massive international exposure and I'll continue to laugh out loud.
The Basic Business Sense Netflix Bears Refuse To Grasp [View article]
Rocco wasn't lucky, he was right. The writing was on the wall and they were going to run into serious liquidity problems. Once they started offering streaming only internationally, it was only a matter of time before they offered it stateside and the split in service - although a PR disaster - was absolutely critical to the success of the company. Without that and without the additional $400M debt they financed this year, their balance sheet would have been running red every quarter for the past 2 years.
Valve, Steam, And The Threat To Your GameStop Investment [View article]
The Xbox 360 since it's launch has been net positive. The recent article by Ben Cousins is full of misinformation and assumptions that were true in 2006 but not in 2013. He also attempts to lump Xbox and Xbox360 into the same fold. The first Xbox lost tremendous amounts of money while the current version has been net positive (although not greatly) over it's life cycle.
The Wii was sold at a profit from day 1 but the PS3, I'll give you - Sony made too many tweaks that simply didn't have broad appeal and were extremely costly (dual Cell processors for one) for both Sony and the consumer. Since Sony is moving away from their costly mistakes, and based on the early specs for the PS4, it looks like it's would be $300-350 to build on hardware alone at today's prices. I'm assuming Sony will get a bulk order discount on hardware parts and if they can launch it with a selling point in the $459-499 range, they'll probably come close to breaking even at launch (when you factor in development costs, overhead, etc).
There are other ways for consoles to make money from launch - Microsoft could expand their beta launch of financing the next Xbox with a 2 year commitment to Xbox Live. Similarly, Microsoft or Sony could enter into partnerships with telecos that offer their systems as cable box replacements but at a reduced price to the consumer with a 2 year commitment.
Coca-Cola: How Safe Is The Dividend? [View article]
I think you're missing the forest through the trees. You take a snapshot that includes the great recession to show that debt is current outpacing dividend payouts ignoring the fact that from 2008-2010, credit was tight across the globe. It's not surprising in those years, KO took on less debt. Of course, this ignores the fact that debt isn't taken on to simply pay out dividends, it's taken to invest in the company and generate long term returns (look at their ROI, it's outstanding) and doing so at historically low rates while maintaining the status quo for dividends. That's smart business.
Coca-Cola: How Safe Is The Dividend? [View article]
Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
I'm just playing devil's advocate. Clearly you've got choice with Netflix on what to have and what not to have and it does come at a reduced cost relative to cable. However, there's a pretty steep loss in current content by choosing one over the other.
Food for thought: there are many out there that would and do pay for basic cable even if they don't have any premium service.
More food for though: cable internet allows anyone to pick up basic cable for free since it's coming in on the same line.
Valve, Steam, And The Threat To Your GameStop Investment [View article]
http://onforb.es/HAEKpO
Valve, Steam, And The Threat To Your GameStop Investment [View article]
The combined worldwide console sales in the last generation exceeded by tens of millions any previous generation (250M). Each CoD infusion generates greater entertainment launch revenue than anything Hollywood can come up with. The biggest difference between this past generation of machines and previous ones is that there was no clear winner (in terms of sales).
All you're seeing now is that the current generation console sales are dropping because they've reached the end of their effective life cycle and will probably need a price cut to boost sales through another year or two while Sony and Microsoft ramp up their next gen efforts. Even the WiiU, largely viewed as a failed launch managed to sell 4M units in a quarter without a single blockbuster title to drive people to buy it. Build the games, and people will buy the systems.
Coca-Cola: How Safe Is The Dividend? [View article]
KO's current PE is 20.5 with a forward PE of under 18. It has traded over 50 in the past. I've taken advanced math courses all the way through graduate school and not a single one ever described 20 as near 50.
Now if you want to say it's stock price is trading near all time highs, that's a different story but a stock price is pretty much meaningless without the context of share float and earnings per share.
Not to belabor things but you should consider that if there is a market correction, it's the high fliers (the AMZNs, NFLXs) that face the biggest correction, not stocks with relatively modest PE valuations.
Coca-Cola: How Safe Is The Dividend? [View article]
I think it's more of a case of KO taking on debt while they can when rates remain at historic lows rather than taking on debt simply to finance dividends. KO's dividend is rock solid and has been for decades.
Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
You cannot get Netflix for $20 with streaming and two DVDs. How do you suppose you're going to connect to the internet? Are you going to troll McDonalds and Starbucks and mooch off their free Wifi? No, you're going to use your home internet connection which will run anywhere from $30-70 a month depending on your location and service providers available or you're going to pay through the nose to watch it over a mobile connection.
So really, you're looking at $50-90 just to stream Netflix and watch at least 2 DVDs at a time. IMO, that's a pretty hefty price and not the least bit attractive for what Netflix offers relative to cable/satellite.
I'm in the same boat as KISS - I watch sports and HBO. I don't have any love for the cable industry but I know that I can generally count on getting to watch what I want and with new streaming initiatives (HBO GO, Showtime Anytime, as well as the standard HULU, CBS online, and FX online), I can watch what I want when I want. I used to subscribe to Netflix and even tried again recently but found little that improved upon options I already had available. Even at $8 a month, it wasn't even remotely worth it for me. I may eventually get around to watching AD again but it's not something I'm burning to see.
Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
The article was clearly bearish. When you put company "news" in quotation marks, it's clearly meant to be sarcastic.
When you finish an article with " I've argued that Netflix uses a lot of numbers to make themselves look better than they really are, and this is the latest one in my opinion.", you can't really construe anything you wrote as bullish.
Good article as always.
Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
Youtube is very wild west like but there is a ton of legally produced content on there - mostly centered around music and the music scene. It's become the 2010s version of what MTV was in the 1980s. I suspect at some point, Youtube will be split into two - one being the user uploaded content (which will contain loads of bootlegged stuff) and one being officially licensed content. How Google handles the split will determine how they will give Netflix a run for their money.
Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
Netflix does some things extremely well - their software engineering is top notch.
Despite the press releases, they aren't really creating their own content. They are paying a very hefty fee for streaming exclusivity only. Nothing is preventing makers of House of Cards or Lillyhammer (or any future Netflix 'originals') from selling their content to others. In fact, House of Cards will be available on DVD starting June 11 and Lillyhammer has been available from a number of different providers around the globe.
The Basic Business Sense Netflix Bears Refuse To Grasp [View article]
That sucks. HBO is offered a la carte from satellite providers.
The Basic Business Sense Netflix Bears Refuse To Grasp [View article]
You really do need to read better. While I don't count a marketing blog as 'proof' when it's corroborated with a source like Reuters (in a link which I provided) says on HBO Go: "The service has about 6.5 million registered users, compared with more than 100 million for HBO's main service globally.", I tend to believe they're not blowing smoke up my ass.
As for your Wikipedia deduction. It's completely wrong. Follow the links dude - Wikipedia sources Time Warner which verifies the 114M number:
Approximately 114 million HBO and Cinemax premium pay and basic cable subscribers worldwide (includes unconsolidated joint ventures) (2013)
-Yes, it's combined HBO/Cinemax but the Cinemax as a stand alone doesn't have anywhere near the reach, brand, or penetration that HBO does, therefore I'm taking 100M as a pretty solid number verified by multiple sources including Time Warner.
But please continue to just focus on US subscribers and ignore the fact that HBO doesn't have massive international exposure and I'll continue to laugh out loud.
The Basic Business Sense Netflix Bears Refuse To Grasp [View article]