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David A Fischer

David A Fischer
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  • OIL: IEA press release: ~International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka announced today that the 28 IEA member countries have agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil in the coming month in response to the ongoing disruption of oil supplies from Libya. [View article]
    Yeah I agree, and if you take out this floor in oil, speculators get hurt. Macke seems to think the only way you hurt speculators is by doing this at 110, that could not be further from the truth. This has been done at exactly a time when it is not needed and unexpected that is why it is much more damaging to speculators. Free markets? hmm I do not think so.
    Jun 23, 2011. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Phantom Growth of China's Ghost Cities [View article]
    Hmm, well I think the shear spead and size with which these cities are being built is shocking most people. But if we actually look at what is being done I think it is good business for the country. Even if at some point there are homes for 100 million people, is that so rediculous if you consider the huge number of rural people?

    These cities can be filled faster than they were built if the government decides to make that happen. If for instance farming is modernized and the focus becomes food over building, small farms will quickly become grouped together so fast billionaire farmers will now be the story of the day. Speculators with huge swaths of cash will buy up farms and start growing them into large corporate entities. This could end up being the governments next agenda once the major rail and road ways are well on their way in the next 3 to 5 years.

    A food agenda would modernize the countryside and put all of those farmers into condos very quickly.

    The Chinese government is designing China from the ground up to be efficient and next generation. They understand the big picture going forward, they either develop as fast as possible or suffer the possibility of a rebellion.

    I am not sure why examples of cities in the desert seems so strange to people? Hmm, lets see Dubai and all of the Middle East, Las Vegas, Phoenix, all of the lower states and pretty much most of Mexico. A country must have people spread out across a nation for many reasons. But China has 1.4 billion people and growing so 65 million empty units is a pittance of the vast numbers of migrant workers and farmers moving to cities.

    The next wave of wealth could be for farmers if they play their cards right, but lets face it, nobody grows a farm through profits.

    Even if China fell apart from a real estate bust, they could quickly drop interest rates, free up other investment opportunites and remove the extremely stringent barriers to owning second homes. Or perhaps make incentives for investors in farm coops, corporations, etc.

    I think China will be able to take their entire farm lands and modernize them in less than 10 years if they start to slow in construction. Everything China does will seem rediculous to us in terms of size, speed and how they do it because of their government structure.

    I still like the idea of China taking over Africa, not a far fetched idea when you consider how underutilized it is. It is a crazy notion, but hey China makes it's own rules and who on earth could stop them. Just an entertaining idea when you think about it.
    Jun 9, 2011. 01:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Chipotle Investors Headed for Indigestion? [View article]
    If you subtract cash, if given a value per store, each store would be worth to about 6.9 million each! Yes 6.9 million each, I personally would never pay that much for one store, not even one tenth of that, I get the whole growth story better than most, but hmmm, could be just slightly overbought. Could stay that way for awhile, but that is some crazy valuation to anyone who has any common sense.
    Mar 31, 2011. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Nuclear Implosion a Buying Opportunity? [View article]
    Well demand could drop exponentially if large plumes of radiation head towards Tokyo! Would thousands if not hundreds of thousands made sick by radiation poisoning change the fundamentals surrounding the industry? Forget oily ducks in the oil sands or displaced Cariboo in Anwar, folks would rather kill a few ducks than watch their children born with abnormalities.

    Is it not possible that Nuclear plants around the world could face higher scrutiny, higher regulations, costly overhauls causing closures? I am not saying prices cant go up, just that this may have much more fall out from here, no pun intended.
    Mar 15, 2011. 06:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan stocks plunge on 1st trading day after quake [View article]
    Wow, really? The whole stock market is hardly noble on any level. The stock market is the largest self serving act, a living hedonistic version of the ego. There is no morality in the stock market, it is all for one and all for one. I would think you would recognize that Mr Quinn, death and destruction, just like life and birth are one and the same, so profiting from either is the way of capitalism. Ones loss is anothers gain, how else could you explain how the world's richest have gotten fatter during the largest depression since the 20's?
    Mar 15, 2011. 01:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GasFrac: Non Water-Based Fracking Technology Should Handsomely Reward Investors [View article]
    Even if the issue was not the Gas Frac equipment, this incident does bring to light the many hazards in flowing back these wells. So many issues still to contend with given Oil companies pushing the testers to very dangerous limits. One issue I see is trying to retain the Propane, this in itself makes the flow back alot more challenging, as well many companies do not seem to understand that liquid propane coming from the well must be tanked off location in sealed truck, and not stored in 400 bbl tanks. Propane being bled off scrubbers and other such events along side line heaters and flares can create very dangerous situations. There is little in the way of Reccomended practice that is overseeing these flowbacks, so more incidents will likely occur until there is broad based industry experience not only including the testers and fraccers, but consultants, truckers and the industry as a whole. I believe the industry must get together and come up better practices and more oversight, or more people will likely get hurt.
    Mar 15, 2011. 01:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GasFrac: Non Water-Based Fracking Technology Should Handsomely Reward Investors [View article]
    I am hearing there was a fire on a Gas Frac lease on the 7th of March near Edson, just passing it on, I don't know anything more than that, so do your due dilligence.
    Mar 10, 2011. 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls: +192K vs. consensus +185K, +63K prior (revised). Unemployment 8.9% vs 9.1% expected, 9% prior. Avg. hourly earnings +$0.01. to $22.87.  [View news story]
    Add to that most of those numbers were simply Jan add ons because it was so cold in Jan. The numbers are false and a .2 drop? Charlie Sheen looks sane compared to that rhetoric. Very bearish numbers all the way around.

    I might add it hardly matters wether they are truly bearish or bullish or end of world, money is flooding the system lifting stocks, as long as qe2 and so on go on, stocks will rise regardless of rediculous numbers.
    Mar 4, 2011. 09:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Maintaining My Long Position in Coinstar [View article]
    So let me get this straight, earnings are to be between .15 and .25 cents a third of what they were expected to be and all the new issues that have been dislplayed and folks here think the stock goes to 75? That 28 day window is a pretty big deal for todays renters. I see that having a devestating effect on the bottom line. I think technology over the next few years will make incredible strides in working out the bugs in streaming, life on the net is faster than ever.
    Mar 4, 2011. 01:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Cooked; Get Out of Amazon and Coinstar As Well [View article]
    NFLX seems to have a chance in that they have brand recognition, and a viable business at this time. AMZN well they sell stuff, so I am confused, and I well it is probably best they stay in that biz. CSTR is a non event, they have neither the capital, brand or partnerships to make anything work in streaming. CSTR will undoubtedly start to lose kiosks at some point as margins crash and customers get too lazy to physcially rent movies.

    Cable companies and satellite are still the bread and butter and will remain so for some time, bandwidth is still a huge issue and speed of delivery.

    No clear winner yet, but if I had to chose NFLX has the best start so far, but there are so many issues to contend with, yikes.
    Mar 3, 2011. 12:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Tremors and the Threat of a Double Dip Recession [View article]
    Too funny, the great thing is American innovation will find a way to turn those frogs into green energy!)
    Feb 28, 2011. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC's 'Spare Capacity': Using ETFs to Manage Libyan Uncertainty [View article]
    I might add, how does one conspire a new inflation adjusted previous high of 150 crude given how much new money has printed? Would that new number be 160, 170? So that previous high is not an apples to apples comparison given fed operations world wide.
    Feb 28, 2011. 02:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Tremors and the Threat of a Double Dip Recession [View article]
    Well put John. I concur, it seems there are many threats to this Alice in Wonderland drama we are seeing. Slashing governement spending tends to be a net negative to growth and yet there is so little fear of this. The governement is talking about shut down, and yet that hardly makes headlines, and Wisconsin is just the start of things to come. This 1.65 Trillion budget deficit is real, market pundet bs is false and misleading at the best of times. Congress is going to be making some major fiscal decisions soon, and folks are going to be hurt in the process.

    I also see WMT as a headwind, their miniscule make after all of the printing going on is a tell. We have seen the best this economy can deliver, now it is time to pay the piper.
    Feb 28, 2011. 01:04 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Egypt bans the export of all gold, including jewelery. "This decision, which comes in light of the exceptional circumstances the country is passing through... is to preserve the country's wealth until the situation stabilizes," official news agency MENA says.  [View news story]
    The illusion by the money printers is that gold has no value, but once they have inflated away all value of the currency, they then start collecting the gold and silver. Just wait until they change the rules in the US, that could be just around the corner if the riots begin as massive budget cuts destroy pensions, services and jobs. If the government does not make some hard line decisions in the coming weeks, all heck could break out in the bond markets, leading to massive money printing, who knows really. But expecting the same ol same ol, well nothing lasts forever.

    Hide your gold and silver!)
    Feb 28, 2011. 12:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anticipating a Decline in Crude Prices: Shorting Oil, Silver ETFs Should Be Profitable [View article]
    That 1.65 trillion deficit is going to need very large amounts of new money to deflate it away, so that means commodity prices have knowhere to go but up over the longer term.
    Feb 28, 2011. 12:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment