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ragingbullish

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  • AIG: The Bull Market Forgot This One [View article]
    Hey Jeff, it's "Property & Casualty" not "Property & Causality". Good article though - thanks for sharing. Stigma is hard thing to shake. You could write the same sort of article for BP.
    Mar 10 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yields: Buying the Panic in Mortgage REIT Stocks [View article]
    "(NLY) is trading around 14.50." The morning panic dump in these stocks (you forgot IVR and a few others) depressed the SP for about 12 minutes this morning. NLY is down but back trading at a more respectable 16.77 and still is a decent bargain if you are looking for modest ($18-$19 analyst average target) SP appreciation and good yield. But the chance to get the stock below $16 has come and gone. I am long NLY since 2009 and my average SP is 17.30.
    Jul 29 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CGTS FOR MONDAY 9 AUGUST: Momentum Sags a Bit. Gold issues get ready to rocket higher. [View instapost]
    Michael- SYNA looks technically oversold now on daily charts looking at RSI... do you agree? How do you call a "trading bottom" using your metrics?

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...
    Sep 10 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CGTS FOR MONDAY 9 AUGUST: Momentum Sags a Bit. Gold issues get ready to rocket higher. [View instapost]
    Do you feel that the trend down for SYNA is coming to an end? Closed today right at your "buy" line, pulled back 15% off its recent high of 33.33, daily volumes have been very weak, RSI has traced back down to 35.72. I am looking for <26 entry but feel that value investors will not let it get that low again given fundamentals. A look at the weekly chart shows that despite its wild fluctuations, the weekly moving averages have been trending higher every year since IPO.
    Aug 13 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 earnings reports this week bode very well for AOSL [View instapost]
    What is your reaction to earnings and the huge sell-off today? I am still holding the IPO @ $18. Squeezing margins that big a deal? Do you anticipate future dilution to sp from IPO deal? I feel stuck in my position and today is very hard to swallow.
    Aug 11 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AOSL's products in critically short supply [View instapost]
    Why is AOSL getting hit so hard? Is it because they have lower margins compared to peers? It has no debt and is trading at less than book value- the market action doesn't make sense. It made a new low today and it is my worst performing holding.

    Disclosure: Broker duped me into buying the IPO
    Jul 8 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verenium: Set to Benefit from U.S. Ethanol Policy [View article]
    Delojozafado (TimoDOZ on Motley Fool),

    I totally agree with you about management's inexplicable compensation and your assessment of this author. I am wondering if you could share: the details and your thoughts about the specifics of the stock options swap voted for at the 2009 annual meeting (I never saw minutes or details about this); and if you have thoughts on why John McCarthy, Jr. (CFO) left the company. It's worth talking about because the management has had a reputation of being shady, vague and overpaid. You obviously owned shares at one point and have some good insight on why investors should stay away.
    Mar 14 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verenium: Set to Benefit from U.S. Ethanol Policy [View article]
    It's obvious that I am an interested party. I'm not trying to hide that I am a shareholder of VRNM (and BP). I have done a great deal of research on this company and the prospect of cellulosic ethanol going back to my studies in college (I have a background in science, as well as energy & environmental politics & policy). I have laid out the many risks in my analysis as well as the upside. Just because I just made a new SA account and decided to express my opinion, should not discount the validity of my analysis. I'm not expressing my view that the rest of the world (Europe, Japan, Korea and South Asia) should set forth the same Energy and Environmental policies as the United States.... that would be foolish. I am a fan of a diversified American energy portfolio (oil, natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar, biofuels, geothermal, hydro, etc).
    Mar 12 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verenium: Set to Benefit from U.S. Ethanol Policy [View article]
    I think algae fuels have an eventual future and a possible niche in the aviation industry. At this point, however, algae fuels have 1000X more question marks than cellulosic ethanol and a lot more hype. In my opinion, cellulosic biofuels have more promise as a domestic automobile fuel in the near to medium term.

    A localized approach to (cellulosic) biofuel development will be the answer! That is why Verenium has chosen the Lykes Brothers ranch for the location of its first plant. Energy Cane and Switchgrass will be grown on land that had previously no agricultural value, and in an ideal climate for maximum yields. You couldn't have planned a commercial plant with these feedstocks in the Northeast, or in the Great Plains- it wouldn't be practical.

    A large part of the success with this fuel source will come through advancement in agricultural technology and techniques. While Verenium is producing the bugs that break down these hardy plants, there are companies that are manipulating the genes of the seeds of the crops that will be used as feedstock. We will need further advancements on both ends for success.

    Another huge factor worth mentioning is the U.S. Government's support of flex-fuel vehicles. What's the point of producing all of this wonderful cellulosic ethanol if automobiles are not going to be ready to use it? Government and automobile manufacturers have to get serious about scaling up flex-fuel vehicle production (see Brazil) if we are ever going to be serious about (cellulosic) ethanol. Along the same lines, the U.S. Government has to create a firm time table to increase the mandated ethanol blend rate.
    Mar 10 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verenium: Set to Benefit from U.S. Ethanol Policy [View article]
    Everyone seems to overlook the success that the B in BRIC has had with ethanol. Yes, you could make the argument that Brazil is destroying the rainforest to plant sugarcane to create this fuel, but they do it at a low cost, they have reduced their dependance on foreign oil, and it has been a great success (they have been perfecting this for 30 years). You can start your research at my favorite website for quick and simple relatively reliable information: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    Verenium will be controlling the entire process of production with an energy partner BP, and an agricultural partner, Lykes brothers (in Florida). Unlike Brazil, Verenium will be growing energy cane (much higher energy content than sugarcane), bagasse, switchgrass or other crops capable of yielding high amounts of energy content per acre. The Lykes brothers will provide the agricultural expertise, Verenium will provide its enzymes, and BP will provide the engineering and refining expertise in order to make this pipe dream a reality. This is a vertically integrated approach to producing cellulosic ethanol, and has the best chance for success.

    The only questions that remain that have not been answered by Vercipia (vercipia.com) are how the enzymes will be transported (and kept alive), and what their ultimate price point will be (through their demonstration scale testing at their Louisiana plant). I hope they produce the enzymes on site, reducing the risks involved with keeping them alive. And I hope that the company shows (with data) that they have produced the fuel for less than $2/gallon in Louisiana.

    There are a couple of further points about cellulosic ethanol to consider. Obviously there are the mandates, USDA loan guarantees, grants, and other tax incentives. An important point about the mandates (and why BP is involved) is that if BP does not blend the mandated amount of cellulosic ethanol into its gasoline, it will have to pay a fee or buy credits compensating for the shortfall. These credits would be transferred to companies producing the cellulosic ethanol, reducing the price/gallon. This is on top of whatever other tax credits there will be reducing the cost/gallon. Another point to mention is that the octane level of ethanol (more so for cellulosic ethanol) is greater than that of gasoline. This allows for a refiner to mix a small amount of cellulosic ethanol with gasoline and in turn greatly raising the octane level of the end product.

    Obviously there are risks involved, which is why venture capital investors, private equity investors, banks are all scared to loan these companies money (especially after the financial crisis). It is important to realize that cellulosic ethanol is not corn ethanol and does not have the same problems. We would not be using food crops to create fuel, and companies would not be forced to hedge their exposure to commodity prices (part of why corn ethanol collapsed after corn surged to record highs in summer 2008). Again, the risks include the viability of the enzymes in transport (negating by producing on-site), economics concerning transporting the cellulosic ethanol to refineries (I have read that cellulosic ethanol would be greatly degraded if transported through existing pipelines), the ability for crops to sustain adverse weather and disease, government support drying up, etc. The construction for the first ever commercial scale plant is expected to be $250-300 million dollars. Obviously this is very capital intensive and only time will tell if this pipe dream ever gets off the ground. The USDA loan guarantee will enable Vercipia to be the guinea pig. You can invest in Verenium and be part guinea pig too :). I love America.
    Mar 9 08:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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