EquityClock's  Instablog

Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house
Democrats were packing their bags following the mid-term election rouse
Legislation was sitting on the President’s desk with care,
In hopes that health care reform would soon be fair.

The tax extension plan was nestled in the minds of the wealthy,
While fear spread that the US deficit would soon be unhealthy.
And Obama touting a recovery more robust,
As unemployment rates were received with massive disgust.

When out in the European Union, some countries battled through snow,
And analysts continued to wonder if contagion would soon grow.
China’s monetary tightening and Korean war fears
Were all recent issues as New Year’s Eve nears.

Yet gains were made this year despite investors sitting on cash,
The resulting effect of May’s flash crash.
Gold rallied to an all-time new high
Leading investors to take notice and buy, buy, buy.

The Gulf Oil spill was no doubt a troubling time,
As BP worked hard to clean up all that grime.
From April highs to July lows,
Double dip recession concerns were among significant woes.

Insiders were probed into trades from Apple to Merck
All based on information received from expert networks.
Let’s not forget the banks that were widely viewed as flawed,
With huge bonus payouts and massive foreclosure fraud.

So raise a toast to the year that’s through,
And to the year ahead as gains continue to accrue.
The year was eventful, a traders delight.
So “Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good-night!”

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for JovInvestment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of JovInvestment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by JovInvestment Management Inc

The Horizons AlphaPro Seasonal Rotation ETF (trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange under symbol HAC) uses a proprietary, seasonal rotation investment strategy developed by research analysts Don Vialoux and Brooke Thackray. The strategy’s core position consists of broad markets at seasonally favourable times of the year and money market securities at seasonally unfavourable times of the year. The strategy allocates from the core portfolio to various sectors when those sectors offer favourable opportunities. Rotating a portfolio in anticipation of these opportunities is designed to deliver returns that are superior to a static investment in broad markets. As seasonal periods are never the same, this investment strategy is supported by additional fundamental and technical analysis.

For more information, Click Here.

Equity Trends

The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the Up/Down ratio) increased last week from 4.99 to ((390/68=) 5.74. The ratio remains intermediate overbought.

Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks increased last week from 79.80% to 82.80% and remains above its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

The Up/Down ratio for TSX Composite stocks slipped last week from 4.56 to (147/34=) 4.32. The ratio remains intermediate overbought.

Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks increased last week from 78.87% to 79.90% and remains above its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

The S&P 500 Index added 15.69 points (1.28%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index broke resistance at 1,227.08 implying short term upside potential to 1,285. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. ‘Tis the season for the Index to move higher.

Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week from 77.80% to 79.80%. Percent remains intermediate overbought, but has yet to show signs of an intermediate peak.

Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week from 81.20% to 85.00%. Percent remains intermediate overbought, but has yet to show signs of an intermediate peak.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 28.23 points (0.25%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average tested resistance at 11,451.53. A break above resistance implies short term upside potential to 12,000. The Average remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. ‘Tis the season for the Average to move higher!

Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average improved from 76.67% to 80.00% last week and remains above its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought

Bullish Percent Index for the NASDAQ Composite Index increased last week from 62.54% to 64.97% and remained above its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

The NASDAQ Composite Index added 46.08 points (1.78%) last week. It broke above resistance at 2,592.94 to reach a three year high implying short term upside potential to 2,735. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. ‘Tis the season for the Index to move higher!

The Russell 2000 Index gained another 20.41 points (2.70%) last week to a three year high. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. ‘Tis the season for the Index to move higher!

The Dow Jones Transportation Average added 30.57 points (0.60%) last week to a two year high. Intermediate trend remain up. The Average remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

The TSX Composite Index gained 60.52 points (0.46%) last week to a two year high. Short term upside potential is to 13,750. Intermediate trend is up. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains mixed. ‘Tis the season for the Index to move higher!

Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above their 50 day moving average dipped last week from 63.40% to 62.37%. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above its 200 day moving average increased last week from 71.65% to 76.29%. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index improved 49.90 points (1.04%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index has resistance at 4,885.70. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

The Nikkei Average added 33.63 points (0.33%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index broke resistance at 10,251.90. Short term momentum indictors are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. ‘Tis the season for the Index to move higher!

The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 1.39 points (0.00%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Support is in a range below 2,700. Resistance is at 3,186.72. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels. The Index continues to try to bounce from near its 200 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned mixed and currently is neutral.

The London FT Index added 66.73 points (1.16%), the Frankfurt DAX Index improved 58.45 points (0.84%) and the Paris CAC Index gained 106.80 points (2.85%).

The Athens Index added 19.82 points (1.33%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index continues to recover from support near 1,383. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. The Index remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

Currencies

The U.S. Dollar Index added 0.69 last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Support is at 75.63. Resistance is at 81.44. The Index found resistance near its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators peaked two weeks ago at overbought levels and are trending lower. Seasonal influences are strongly negative in the second half of December.

Conversely, the Euro fell 1.84 last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Support is at 129.72 and approximately at its 200 day moving average. Resistance is at 142.81. Short term momentum indicators bottomed at oversold levels two weeks ago and continue to recover.

The Canadian Dollar slipped 0.59 last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Dollar remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support is at 96.50. Resistance is at 100.18. Momentum indicators are overbought and rolling over.

The Japanese Yen slipped 1.77 last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Support is forming at 118.48. Resistance is at 124.40. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.

Commodities

The CRB Index slipped 1.25 points (0.40%) last week. The Index briefly broke above resistance at 320.38. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking. The Index may be forming a short term double top pattern. Downside risk is to support at 293.95.

Crude Oil fell $1.26 per barrel (1.41%) last week after reaching a two year high at $90.87. Short term momentum indictors are overbought and showing signs of a peak.

Gasoline fell $0.04 (1.70%) last week. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking.

Natural Gas added $0.07 (1.61%) last week. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking.

Gold fell $28.00 U.S. (2.00%) last week. It briefly broke above resistance at $1424.40 to reach an all time high, but fell back to its previous trading range. Support is at $1,330.00. Seasonal influences are positive until mid February.

Gold Futures (GC) Seasonal Chart

The Philadelphia Gold Index lost 1.82 points (0.80%) last week. Strength relative to gold remains positive. Momentum indicators for gold and gold equities have rolled over.

Silver touched an all time high early last week, but slipped $0.68 (2.33%) by the end of the week. Support is at 25.02. Strength relative to the gold is positive. Momentum indicators are trending down. Seasonal influences remain positive until mid February.

Silver Futures (SI) Seasonal Chart

Platinum fell $50 (2.90%) last week. Support is at $1,631. Resistance is at $1,806. Seasonal influences turn positive in mid December.

Platinum Futures (PL) Seasonal Chart

Copper gained 11.3 cents (2.83%) last week. It broke resistance at $4.0835 to reach an all time high. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are trending higher. Seasonal influences turn positive in mid December.

The grain ETN slipped $0.74 (1.50%) last week. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. ‘Tis the season for grain (particularly wheat) to move higher!

Lumber gained $17.20 (6.90%) last week in anticipation of a favourable November housing start report. Short term momentum indicators are recovering. ‘Tis the season for lumber prices to move higher until mid February!

Interest Rates

The yield on 10 year Treasuries added another 28 basis points last week and broke above its 200 day moving average. The increase was recorded despite continuing purchase of Treasuries by the Federal Reserve under Quantitative Easing II designed to dampen yield gains. Yields are rising partially in anticipation of acceleration of U.S. economic growth in the first half of 2011. Short term momentum indicators remain overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.

Conversely, long term Treasury ETF prices broke support $93.49, resumed an intermediate downtrend and fell another $1.74 last week on higher than average volume. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend lower.

Other Factors

The Baltic Dry Index lost another 73 points (3.4%) last week. Not a positive sign for international trade!

The VIX Index slipped another 0.40 (3.2%) last week to reach a new eight month low. Support is at 15.23%. Equity market fears continue to abate.

Intermediate technical action by equity markets and major sectors remains positive.

Short term technical indicators remain positive with the possible exception of momentum indicators on commodity prices. However, a short term correction in commodities is long overdue and likely will reverse before the end of the month with seasonal weakness in the U.S. Dollar.

Economic reports this week are expected to confirm a slow, but steady recovery in the U.S. economy.

Seasonal influences for economically sensitive sectors and the small cap sector are exceptionally positive beginning this week and continuing until the first week in January. Jake Bernstein noted last week at a CSTA conference that the best performing week for the S&P 500 in the year is from December 16^th to December 23^rd. The trade has a 75% success rate. Historically, the Santa Claus rally starts on December 16^th and lasts until the end of the year.

The Obama compromise on the Bush Tax Cuts is creating lots of political heat on extreme end of the political spectrum, but it will pass probably sometime this week. The compromise will be changed. Look for the bill to be “Christmas treed” with lots of earmarks that will add significantly to government spending. So much for government cutbacks! The political focus has been on the estate tax and the extension of the tax cuts to include taxpayers with income in excess of $250,000. Neither issue will “move the needle” on government revenues significantly during the next two years. The issues that will have the greatest impact are the reduction in payroll tax paid by employers from 6.2% to 4.2% on wages up to $106,800 (a $120 billion tax cut) and the provision to allow companies to allow all domestic companies to fully expense the cost of equipment in 2011. Both issues are enormously positive for employment and economic activity by U.S. domestic corporations (Read: Small Cap companies. Approximately 48% of earnings by S&P 500 companies are realized from operations outside of the U.S.). Not surprising, small cap stocks and related ETFs have been outperforming U.S. equity indices during the past couple of weeks. Look for that trend to continue. More information on the Small Cap sector is offered below.

International political and economic events, that bothered equity markets in November, continue to fade from the headlines.

The latest investment theme is owning stocks that will benefit from higher dividends. CEOs love to offer good news when they announce fourth quarter and annual results. Many corporations are flush with cash. An easy way to please shareholders is to raise dividends. Look for lots of dividend increases when fourth quarter earnings report season arrives in late January.

‘Tis the season for investment dealers to “deliver the good news” about prospects for next year! Several major U.S. investment dealers already have released their 2011 forecasts and top picks. The forecasts released to date are universally bullish (That’s not unusual). Look for more of the same from other Canadian and U.S. investment dealers during the next two weeks.

Economic growth in China is real (as revealed by their economic reports last week) and will have a significant influence on commodity prices in 2011.

Economically sensitive sectors that currently have favourable period of seasonal strength at this time of year (e.g. Technology, Industrials, Materials, Consumer Discretionary) have a history of moving higher until early January, correcting until the end of January and moving higher thereafter until May. Given the current short term overbought level for economically sensitive stocks and related ETFs, history has a high chance of repeating during the next few months.

The Bottom Line

Continue to hold favoured equities and related ETFs for additional gains between now and early January, followed by a brief correction that will offer an opportunity to add to favoured seasonal trades.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Additional disclosure: Comments and opinions offered in this report at timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for JovInvestment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of JovInvestment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by JovInvestment Management Inc

Upcoming Events for Today:

• No events scheduled

  The Markets

Market	Close	% Change	Expected ST Low	Expected ST High
Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)	11,410.32	0.35%	11,050.66	11,392.95
Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT)	5,099.38	0.31%	4,778.39	5,052.89
Dow Jones Utility Average (^DJU)	397.39	0.49%	393.33	406.82
S&P 500 (^GSPC)	1,240.40	0.60%	1,182.82	1,227.84
S&P/TSE Composite (^GSPTSE)	13,239.47	0.55%	12,642.45	13,183.99
NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC)	2,637.54	0.80%	2,495.84	2,602.89
Austrian Traded Index (^ATX)	2,829.99	-0.24%	2,654.21	2,784.95
French CAC 40 (^FCHI)	3,857.35	-0.02%	3,686.91	3,903.47
German DAX (^GDAXI)	7,006.17	0.60%	6,674.02	6,963.45
UK FTSE 100 (^FTSE)	5,813.00	0.09%	5,616.24	5,845.76
Swiss Market Index (^SSMI)	6,519.10	-0.28%	6,408.48	6,586.55
Brazilian IBOVESPA (^BVSP)	68,342.00	0.68%	68,139.10	72,140.26
Mexico’s IPC (^MXX)	37,677.78	0.29%	35,717.92	37,596.47
Amsterdam Exchange Index (^AEX)	350.21	0.24%	333.81	347.78
Shanghai – SSE Composite Index (000001.ss)	2,841.04	1.07%	2,829.97	3,112.83
New Zealand NZX 50 INDEX GROSS (^NZ50)	3,272.92	-0.23%	3,266.01	3,327.81
China HANG SENG INDEX (^HSI)	23,162.91	-0.04%	23,046.22	24,642.45
Korea KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11)	1,986.14	-0.14%	1,900.70	1,966.46
Tokyo NIKKEI 225 (^N225)	10,211.95	-0.72%	9,358.08	10,210.21

Markets were lifted by further optimism on Friday, stemming from stronger than expected economic reports and a dividend boost by a blue-chip stock.   A slimmer than expected trade deficit and better than expected consumer sentiment were among the factors that pushed key indices to new 2-year high levels, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the last of the major indices to do so.   The market is beginning to fire on all cylinders and confidence is clearly spreading, both from investors and corporations.   Just on Friday General Electric announced its second dividend increase in a year.   The increase amounted to two cents per share or 17%.   The stock gained 3.44% in what is commonly the best performing month for the equity on a seasonal basis.   Strong positive tendencies subside following the conclusion of the calendar year, but find another period of seasonal strength beginning in March.

Despite much speculation at the end of last week that China would enact further monetary tightening measures by way of an interest rate increase, events over the weekend suggests otherwise.   On Sunday, China’s leaders pledged to stabilize prices in 2011, but restrained from mentioning any rate increases in the short-term.   The result of China’s economic meeting was that uncertainty is maintained as to when rates eventually will be pushed higher in order to thwart excessive inflation.  The CSI 300 Index is reacting favourably to the non-action, posting gains topping 3% and breaking out of a trading range that has persisted for the past month.   Speculation of the increase in lending rates kept pressure on various commodities over the last few sessions, however the subsidence of this market overhang should now allow these materials to move more freely, for now.      Commodities that see positive seasonal tendencies commence in the short-term include Platinum, Wheat, Cotton, and Corn.

We’re approaching the period in the month that seasonal tendencies customarily get a boost going into year-end as investors seek to position portfolios for the year ahead.   Upside potential for next year looks to be substantial with returns expected to range between 15% to 20%.   Window dressing of institutional funds around this timeframe is anther significant factor of the boost in equity prices in the last half of the month.   Tax-related selling usually brings equity values lower in the first half of the month, a scenario which has not occurred this year due to optimistic prospects of the passing of the extension to Bush-era tax cuts.   This essentially means that a large selloff to mitigate higher tax rates will not occur, but as long as rates are not 0% the possibility of tax related selling, to some degree, remains.   With technicals screaming overbought signals yet again, a huge question mark remains as to how much upside potential remains by the time the countdown begins on New Year’s Eve.   For now the trend remains up, and even just for the long-term potential, appropriate equity positioning is prudent.   The last half of December is seasonally a strong time for the market as we enter January, which is commonly a weaker month.   Pre-election years in the presidential election cycle, as will be the case in 2011, refute this claim of a weak January, however.   Therefore data both for and against a strong upward trend over the next 7-weeks exits, leaving technicals as the deciding factor to be in or out.

Sentiment on Friday remains to the bullish side of the equation with the put/call ratio ending the day at 0.76.   The 10-day moving average of this ratio, now at 0.80, was last witnessed at the April highs before the market plunged over 15% in about two months.  This is not expected to be the case again.   What the current bullish sentiment is indicating is that investors have become complacent at current levels, leaving the market vulnerable to “shocks”.   Appropriate put protection positioning remains a prudent course of action in order to mitigate short-term fluctuations.   Any weakness presented over the next seven weeks offers opportunities to increase equity exposure in economically sensitive areas, such as materials and industrials.

  Sectors that Moved the Market

Sector	% Price Change	% Volume Change
Energy Sector (XLE)	0.41%	-20.78%
Basic Materials Sector (XLB)	0.87%	-54.68%
Financial Sector (XLF)	0.90%	-27.15%
Health Care Sector (XLV)	0.97%	56.12%
Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY)	0.35%	0.22%
Industrials Sector (XLI)	0.91%	-13.96%
Technology Sector (XLK)	0.48%	-6.65%
Utilities Sector (XLU)	0.39%	-29.86%
Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)	0.17%	-15.81%

 

In conjunction with GE’s announcement to increase its dividend payout rate, Health Care, Industrials and Finanicals posted returns topping nine-tenths of a percent for the day.   Each sector sees strongly positive seasonal tendencies in the last half of December.   One of the areas of the market that is expected to do well over the next couple of months are small-cap stocks.   The extension of the Bush-era tax cuts is expected to benefit companies that receive revenues predominantly in the US.   Small-caps have a clear advantage over major multinational corporations commonly found in large-cap indices.   Therefore look for small caps to outperform large cap stocks as the US economy expands in the year to come.

  S&P 500 Index

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

Support 2	Support 1	Pivot Point	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
1229.97	1235.19	1237.79	1243.01	1245.61

 

Total Returns

Yesterday: 0.60%  –  Trailing 5 days: 1.28%  –  Trailing 30 days: 1.78%

Averages for current day based on past 20 years of data

• Current Day: –0.05% with 57.14% of sessions gaining
• Next 7 days: 0.13% with 51.00% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.12% by December 15 on Average)
• Next 30 days: 1.22% with 54.85% of sessions gaining (Max return: 3.24% by December 30 on Average)

  TSE Composite

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

Support 2	Support 1	Pivot Point	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
13132.23	13185.85	13219.64	13273.26	13307.05

 

Total Returns

Yesterday: 0.55%  –  Trailing 5 days: 0.58%  –  Trailing 30 days: 2.29%

Averages for current day based on past 10 years of data

• Current Day: –0.53% with 50.00% of sessions gaining
• Next 7 days: –0.63% with 41.50% of sessions gaining (Max return: 0.80% by December 16 on Average)
• Next 30 days: 1.57% with 52.57% of sessions gaining (Max return:3.63% by December 31 on Average)

Disclosure: I am long GE.

Additional disclosure: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for JovInvestment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of JovInvestment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by JovInvestment Management Inc