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Haraa

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  • The Delusions Of Nokia's Valuation [View article]
    I think Nokia should keep mobile business, that fearful and pessimistic Nokia board has decided to sell at price that is not acceptable, considering potential there is.

    Big bet on Windows Mobile OS is still on early stage, and you cannot make decent profits by selling cheap 5xx Lumias. But new 1520 and others are expensive and have good profit margins. And when Instagram is available to Lumia users, that may also help in a great way to conquer US smartphone markets, get bigger slice there.

    I think shareholders are smart to vote NO to that Microsoft deal and keep huge upside what is in that Nokia Mobile business.

    When and if Lumia sales really goes up and expensive higher quality Lumia phones with comparable hardware as what competitors phones have, that will help mobile business to turn really profitable (compare what huge money machine iPhone is). New just introduced Lumias look pretty good. Problem in Nokia is fearful and pessimistic board and company is missing good CEO, I think Nokia has not have good CEO for years. These two problems must be fixed.

    It is hard to sell anything, even high quality and competitive good products if you are fearful and pessimistic, and do not even believe that you can win.
    Nov 3 09:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple's 64-Bit A7 Processor A 'Gimmick'? No, But It's Not The Next 'Big Thing' Either [View article]
    I tried in one store both 5C and 5S and made some comparisons. I think difference between speed was really small in these phones, almost zero. Maybe 5S was a bit faster but only bit, so that 64-bit systems seems to be more a gimmick that any big innovation. Anyway it is innovation. Maybe next iPhone has quad core processor with 64-bit system. I can be fast.

    150 billion may give Apple false sense of security, but if some aggressive activist investor takes big chunk of that 150 billion away, then maybe Apple has more hurry to innovate and not just do gimmicks. Apple seems to think that you have any size of display in iPhone, as long as it is max 4". Like Henry For once offers color options, any color but black.
    Oct 28 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Nokia Shareholders Approve The Acquisition? [View article]
    I checked the proxy material. It seems that this deal must happen. Microsoft seems to be unwilling partner to work hard to make this partnership successful. If that's the case, then usually partnerships end in divorce sooner or later.

    But the price MSFT is offering is terribly low, dirty cheap.

    There is huge potential, WP8 is improving, Lumia hardware is becoming slowly in line with competitors, Lumia WP8 market share has grown many quarters, albeit slowly also, but huge potential is there for Microsoft&Nokia to become a third force in smartphone market and make decent profits.

    MSFT can for example reduce it's announced up to 40 billion share buyback program to 30 billion $ and put that 10 billion to it's Nokia offer. So 17 billion $ would be proper price for Nokia D&S business and I would sell gladly it to MSFT at that price. I think that would be win-win deal, win also for Nokia shareholders.
    Sep 22 05:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Chooses Not To Taper: In Gentle Ben We Trust [View article]
    I think FED should have acted more courageously and took that small tapering step. What's the difference between $ 85 000 million and $ 75 000 million asset purchasing? I think it is mostly psychological. $ 75 billion dollars asset purchasing still huge amount of easing to US economy.

    Some tapering would probably have also put some pressure on politicians to do their part and not mess things with government shutdown and debt ceiling decision.
    Sep 18 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nokia Has At Least A 20% Upside Potential [View article]
    Microsoft own calculation of long term value creation of that mobile business it tries to buy that bargain price 5.44 bn €.

    2018 estimated global smartphone shipment 1.7 billion and Microsoft/Lumia market share of that 15 %. Sales revenue about 45 $ billion

    Assumed margins 10 % and operating/income 4.5 $ billion. Net present value whopping 30 $ billion !

    That can be even modest estimate, I don't think Microsoft has habit of over-promising and under-delivering. So value can be billions and billions better!

    I believe Microsoft's own calculation show that real potential Lumia Windows smartphone has. And I think when Microsoft sell that deal internally and to it's shareholders with those numbers it does not tell fairy tales, but what it seriously believe or see how successful this Windows smartphone business is coming.

    So why should Nokia shareholders sell phone business now at this deep discount? Believe Microsoft on these valuation calculations.
    Sep 13 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Nokia Sell Out To Microsoft Too Soon? [View article]
    My estimate is also, that Nokia can become 100 bn market cap company.

    I believe Lumia sales are about to sky rocket. But GDR3 is absolute necessity to make premium priced phones, like Galaxy S4 or iPhone 5, that make it even in theory possible to become very profitable company.
    Nokia has near monopoly in WP8 phones when Samsung and HTC have given up fight in Windows phones. Very good!

    So Nokia shareholders should show the real power and vote against this deal weak management has negotiated, and then wait maybe half year or year to see real potential how popular Lumia phones with Microsoft WP8 can really become. I think many loves their Lumia phones, that is always a good sign.

    If Lumia for some reason flops, or stays small or something other goes wrong, I think then it is time to sell Microsoft. Whether price is then 5 bn or 3 bn $ or less, I do not care, as a shareholder of Nokia I want to pursue that 100 bn $ market cap upside opportunity I believe Nokia has.

    Besides, Microsoft is advised on this deal by Goldman Sachs. I think GS seldom does stupid deals. So it is not really time to sell now and at that bargain price. I think you can trust Goldman Sachs in this deal, don’t sell, vote for no.
    Sep 10 03:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions The Nokia Board Of Directors Need To Answer [View article]
    "If the deal does not close at all, Nokia's share price will probably retreat back to sub-$4 or even less than it was these prior three months. "

    Good arguments and questions raised.

    But I think there is big jump in Nokia share price, maybe 5-6 $ or more. Longer term maybe 2-3 years I think Nokia can be 100 bn company and threat to Apple and Samsung dominance. Maybe Nokia shareholders understand that this weird deal and Nokia phones are really not worth only 5+ bn $, that is being aggressively pushed. Timing is awful, excellent phones coming or already selling and busy Christmas season coming. Really, why to sell now?

    This seems just Goldman Sachs and Microsoft orchestrated hostile takeover at that price. Their best brains are trying very hard using all gimmicks to make that happen.

    One can hope that there are over 50 % smart Nokia shareholders that say NO and prevent this deal happening.

    There are now really good products on markets, Lumia 925, Lumia 1020 and some pictures for example Lumia 1520, that is really awesome, beautiful, big high resolution screen fast Qualcome quad-core processor, I think that phone sells 500-600 eur, so you can make tons of money.

    WP8 is excellent already now, it attracts new users and first time buyers. I just wonder how many updates and upgrades for WP8 is not not being released because of this hostile takeover negotiations going on for months. Some improvements and sophisticated new features to WP8, and then breakthrough is rally possible in large scale. And in USA you need to have Instagram, probably that app has been ready for months to be published and made available to Lumia user, but there naturally has been zero interest for Microsoft to do that, until this deal is closed.


    And finally Nokia needs to find finally a good CEO that really loves it and who is not thinking or planning his next job or master he serves next. Three poor CEO's in row, not nice for any company.

    I think CEO who is not 100 % loyal to his company that pays him handsomely and shareholders he should serve, is not good CEO to any company. Maybe Microsoft is lucky not to get this kind of CEO ever, Nokia has not been so lucky.
    Sep 7 08:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Thoughts On The Microsoft Acquisition Of Nokia's Handset Operations [View article]
    After this rotten undervalued deal happened, it is not hard to draw conclusion why for example Instragram does not still yet work at Lumia Windows phones? Microsoft owns part of Facebook that owns Instagram, yes...

    Maybe Microsoft did not want to take any risk that Lumia's would have sold much better in USA and so Nokia's value would soared and it's price tag also.

    I think Microsoft did it's part in this partnership with Nokia like Italian strike way, doing minimum or less than that.
    Sep 5 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Initial Thoughts On The End Of Nokia As We Know It [View article]
    Nokia has been losing money so far with its Windows smartphones, but when you start from scratch building this third ecosystem and phone business, what else can you expect? Overnight success seldom happens.

    But hard work has been done and there were very clear signs (maybe not for Nokia leaders, expect for Elop) that this Nokia smartphones business will become excellent and profitable franchise.

    Well then this I think totally undervalued deal happens and Nokia's excellent future prospect is thrown away at price that is close to ridiculous.

    I think this merger was like when used car salesman buys your 20 000 $ car paying of it only 10 000 $.
    Sep 3 02:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Has Strong Growth Prospects In The Next 6 Months [View article]
    Good news really, but competition is very tough there are lots of excellent phones on market. From Nokia's standpoint, choosing windows OS to its phones seemst to have been excellent choice, Nokia now have near monopoly in windows phones. Like Apple, you get IOS only by buying iPhone or iPad. Lumia experience is different, than Galaxy or iPhone. GDR3 update is important for Nokia, it can charge more from phones that has fastest processors and best high resolution displays.
    Lot depends anyway from Microsoft how it can innovate WP in future. I think, Android is about light year ahead of WP8 a mobile operating system and visually it is beautiful. But still I think many buy phone just for what they can do it, and you can do many things or most things with Lumia as you can do with iPhone or Android phone. And things get just better for Nokia, when more apps comes available to windows phones, like Instagram maybe in future.
    Sep 1 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Be Ready For A Massive Crash [View article]
    Nice cars, maybe too flashy for many and expensive also. But innovative young company, already mass producing high quality products. Tesla is maybe a bit early, but you need to be brave sometimes. If oil oil jumps to 150 or 200 $ per barrel, Tesla looks still better. Whether current market cap is right or wrong, hard to say. Whether FB IPO price was right or wrong, now it does not seem to be so wrong.

    Good benchmark for Tesla is probably Porsche, high quality premium sports car maker.
    Aug 12 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Look At Nokia - Low End Lumias Are Crucial [View article]
    I think it is good that Nokia can sell lots of 520 or other cheaper Lumia phones. If users are satisfied and like WP8 experience and Lumia phone. When they in future buy their next cell phone, Nokia has probably good chance to sell better and more expensive Lumia to her. Short term cheap 520 is not so good business as would be selling higher end Lumias. But Nokia and this third mobile WP ecosystem needs more users and that 520 "way" seems to work well.
    Aug 7 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Nokia, Stephen Elop Is A Flop [View article]
    Elop jumped to burning platform and has done excellent job changing that bureaucracy to more entrepreneurial company . His predecessors almost succeeded destroying Nokia, so Nokia's CEO title was not probably the most attractive job for many, who would have been better that Elop? When former Nokia CEO's seemed to be talk to talk men, I think Elop is walk the talk CEO, and that is huge difference.

    Microsoft should be more innovative and fast moving when they develop and improve WP8. That would help Nokia.
    Jul 22 12:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Corporation's (NOK) Quarterly Results: Blah [View article]
    I think Microsoft's problems with Surface RT probably means that MSFT does not so easily come to smartphone markets to try it luck whether it succeeds better selling smartphones than it does tablets.

    So as long has Nokia has near monopoly with WP8 phones it has quite good situation to try hard to succeed and improve. Better margin products Lumia 925 and 1020 also helps if Nokia has courage to make or order them enough and then sell in big numbers.
    Jul 21 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Is Neither HERE Nor There [View article]
    I do not know how much Nokia get for each car that uses it HERE maps, if it can really be found four out of five cars dashboard, but probably it is far too little.

    If you want some extra bells and whistles to your car, aluminium rims, spoiler, leather steering wheel etc.. Maybe what manufactures pay Nokia using HERE maps, is tiny fraction of those extra "necessities" it charges from their customers. So Nokia does not probably know how communicate value its maps add to cars and car buyers and sell HERE licenses then at higher price to car manufacturers.
    Jul 17 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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