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  • Victory For The Bears [View article]
    Interesting Rock 228,

    My timing model suggests 11/10 (give or take 1 day) would be a "market turn day". The market with respect to the SPY could/should top then and go sideways or bearish for 2+ weeks. I will exit long/calls and sell premium just before then. This indeed would be about 14-15 days from tomorrow (Monday 10/27/14) and would match your pattern: "2014: 7.7% last draw before QE ended, ..... Do you see a pattern?"

    Maybe we will see if we are correct.
    Oct 26, 2014. 10:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • From The CME Trading Floor: It's Quiet... Too Quiet? Nah [View article]

    Very nice clean TA article. Completely agree with TFCAB and Joseph Met. SA needs more TA content and would really appreciate and enjoy a 'technical section'. Look forward to your next article.
    Sep 15, 2013. 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "With no recession in sight, we find it hard to make a bear case," says HSBC, noting that "the first tightening in a cycle … typically causes only a short-lived correction in stocks." The bank's global head of equity strategy Garry Evans says the combination of a "data dependent" taper, 10% earnings growth, and relatively conservative valuations makes for some attractive opportunities especially in financial stocks (XLF) which he says are cheap and poised for strong earnings momentum. HSBC also prefers U.S. equities (SPY, VTI) to other markets. [View news story]
    Here kitty, kitty, kitty.... I got some more stock inventory I have to unload to the unsuspecting retail investor/trader before we correct further. How about some financials (we have been long and made some great gains and need to lock in these as profits, but we need someone to buy them, how about you?) You know they are going up again, right? C'mon, look at the market the other day! Didn't you see the buying climax, uh, err, um, I mean the bullish rally. How about some more stock for you? You know this rally will last forever, right. Just a few more shares.... what do you think?
    Jul 7, 2013. 03:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) futures are ahead 0.2% as the markets look to make it 3 consecutive days of gains. Europe is mixed, and China was flat while the Nikkei soared 3% overnight. Treasury prices continue to cooperate, the 10-year yield off 2 more bps to 2.51%. [View news story]
    Beware of climax buying.
    Jun 27, 2013. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The recent drawdown in the S&P 500 (SPY) is a minor one compared to historical norms, says Goldman in a research note today. While reiterating its view of a 1,750 closing level this year for the index, the team expects there could be another 3-5% down in this current move. [View news story]
    Tommy_Finger is right. Big/"Smart" money is selling into any rallies. First they set a target line. The retail investor buys into the target. They sell into the target (TO the retail investor!). That is how they get out of a position. They must do this over and over again to deplete their inventory, often for months. This IS the churning and "topping" phase of a market. This is the only way they can unload such large quantities of stock. If they were to do it suddenly, they could not squeeze out their gains...thus the "short term bear traps" rallies followed by more downside until fear over comes greed and the market falls "suddenly". By that time, Big money has already gotten out. Neat, huh?

    Therefore, expect a short rally up (possibly Monday, "buying climaxes"), then sideways to up consolidation, then another big drop, and so on. Unless you have the capacity to be nimble, you may not want to buy into these rallies as they may continue down for more correction.
    Jun 23, 2013. 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting BlackBerry Is 'For The Birds' [View article]
    From a TA standpoint, a triangle is forming one third away from its apex (typically the point where a stock will move up or down forcefully, (often with a slight head fake first) on such a volatile stock as this). BBRY has been in a weekly "overall" uptrend, with money flow starting to return to the stock a few weeks before earnings, with an uptrending daily RSI, a MACD that is partly leveling off, price "bouncing off support" at the bottom of its last few months trading range, above its daily 200 MA and above the weekly 50 MA (which is starting to turn upwards). Price is very likely to wick up and touch at least the 50 dMA (about $14.64 currently), if not $15 within the next several days (if the overall market helps as well). That is about an 8% move on a $14 stock in a few days-weeks. Who knows how many shorts will need to cover by the third Friday of this month, before earnings, if that scenario occurs. If a strong break on heavy volume does occur above the 20 dMA, price could easily get to $18 before earnings. Something to consider amongst all the bullish and bearish sentiment.
    Jun 9, 2013. 11:16 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment