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MN Mad Man
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Casual options trader. Full time job and love it all.
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  • Avanir Pharmaceutical Staying Higher Despite Anything Substantive

    AVNR is the Wile E Coyote of the stock markets lately. During the summer they looked poised to be providing innovation. By September the reality that they are too far away from anything meaningful settled in. The fact that the big boys like Pfizer are also hounding down the same space means when the "Miracle" Alzheimer's drug comes out, it will likely share the market with others.

    But wait. Let's look at a deeper logic here. No Alzheimer's drug has delivered anything superior to even fish oil and vitamin E. All this at an expense that is way too high to justify.

    Add insurance company cost management/ ACA what you have is a tremendous market pressure to bring this in at a way more affordable cost than drugs of the previous generation.

    When you dig deeper, you wish them every success. The reality is even if they are successful with the next wave of clinical trials, they have the daunting task of marketing against pricing pressures and or competitive pressures too.

    Tags: AVNR, Pharma
    Oct 23 1:45 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Make Or Break For RIMM

    I am diligently looking at the new BlackBerry BB10 products as judgement day nears. I will breakdown the pros and cons and hopefully you can decide if it makes sense to hold on to stock or sell now on your long positions. I do not currently own BB directly (but some through an ETF).

    Pros: A still relatively large base of corporate customers. These folks (myself included) are stuck with these phones. When the company gets new BB10 Products, so does the whole crew.

    If you like the BB email experience, nothing else can match it. My father got a Samsung Note 2 on ATT. After 90 days he says he will get the new BB as soon as it's out and pay the penalty.

    You will see that many folks will be in the same boat, but may wait till their contracts expire.

    Apple has a rate of phone updates that means folks who are looking to migrate will be looking at what will generally be slightly dated. If you are upset with subcontractor issues that Apple is having (pay rates to Chinese employees, etc). You stay clear. If you were upset about the way Apple went to sue other vendors, you may have decided to avoid an Android and an Apple.

    Finally, if the BB turns out to be 80% as good as the competition, it has wings. Lets not forget, email and texting were always a BB strong point. The Facebook, Twitter, Weatherbug and similar apps will only need to not suck.

    Then the sales should level off if not bounce back. On the other hand, if they have issues out of the gate, the stock will most likely slide right back down quickly.

    I have had Black Berry phones for 7+ years. I never wanted one, just got them for work. Now.... I am actually looking forward to one.

    Disclosure: I am long QQQ.

    Additional disclosure: I do not currently hold RIMM. If the launch is not successful, I will possibly be shorting.

    Jan 19 1:10 PM | Link | Comment!
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