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  • The S&P 500 Before The Echo Event Ends  [View article]
    The only metric that makes sense is an ongoing tally of correct vs. incorrect predictions. Pointing out a self-selected couple of samples is meaningless for the purposes of establishing the credibility of a system. How many times has the system correctly predicted outcomes, over a length of time? Or - the system's returns vs. the broad market over a significant length of time? As with so many analyses, the interpretations (noise event, echo effect) look like good predictors of the past.
    Oct 14, 2014. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Market-Makers Help Us Time The Market? You Better Believe It  [View article]
    Nice! Empirical, objective, scientific, no ideology: useful, thank you!
    Nov 11, 2012. 01:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What We're Buying Right After The U.S. Election  [View article]
    I got it directly from the quote from his text. It translates as:
    "if only the free market were the sole arbiter of what is valuable to society, then we'd be better off" if you strip it down to the 'message.'
    "see subsidies tossed out, Solyndra debacle, gov't leader wowed by snake oil"

    The tone of the message is that government, and Obama in particular (as if all that is wrong with the world rests on the actions of this one individual), are incapable.

    $500 million? That's pocket lint compared to the daily debacle that is the rampant greed, misfeasance, and malfeasance of modern Corporatism, which, by the way, feeds incessantly at the Government tit which it owns.
    Nov 7, 2012. 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What We're Buying Right After The U.S. Election  [View article]
    "Personally, I'd like to see all subsidies tossed out, saving billions every year, and let the marketplace invest in those ideas and companies they believe have a worthwhile product and financial viability. Better Exxon (XOM) loses $500 million in a Solyndra type debacle than the American taxpayer via some government leader who is too easily wowed by a snake-oil salesman or too inexperienced in business to know what constitutes value and what doesn't."

    Excuse me - please check the overall rate of busts of gov't subsidized entities vs. say, Bain Capital's investments.

    Government is not a for-profit business, and the sooner everyone stops wishing it were, things will get a lot better.

    Just what we need is Enron, Exxon, MacDonalds, Bank of America, Citibank, dictating social policy. Oh, wait . . . .
    Nov 7, 2012. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Amazon's Margins  [View article]
    Enough squabbling with all that above ... get a room.

    In the meantime : what do you-all make of AMZN's investment thesis which is "to maximize free cash flow" - from their 2011 AR.

    I can't parse why, or how, that amounts to shareholder value, share value. I interpret it to mean "We plan to have a lot of cash coming in and going out. How much we keep is not so much of an issue."

    Making the margin question moot. But where's the profit?
    Oct 14, 2012. 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Amazon's Margins  [View article]
    This is all great fun and interesting. Maybe there will be a great long-short debate over Amazon similar to the one on SA over Netflix, between Reed Hastings vs. Whitney Tilson.

    Short to medium term, I believe there may very well be a stock price reckoning like what happened to Netflix, but I also think that in 10 years Amazon will be a pervasive first-choice brand in many categories, while Walmart will mostly be serving the trailer-park set.

    In the interests of accuracy, I did say bicycle LIGHT.

    Sep 30, 2012. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Amazon's Margins  [View article]
    I had a longer comment but Internet Explorer ate it.

    Bottom line:
    - Amazon vs. Walmart is a good model for a "fight club" over business models and valuations, much more than any worries about Bezos vs. Jobs. That said,
    - Amazon has been investing heavily in capex while Walmart is cutting back because everyone expects and needs their margins to stay within expectations.
    - If you go to you will see 58 choices for bicycle light, vs over 1900 at Wetsuit? 5 at and 12,000 at

    The future is Amazon, the only problem to me is that the market has already anticipated it to a large extent.
    Sep 27, 2012. 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Amazon's Margins  [View article]
    Nice to see theses well constructed, thought out, and articulated, thank you. For me, there is a simple fact that has me considering some AMZN LEAPS, despite the feeling of price being headed towards a cliff: if you want something, ALMOST ANYTHING, you can sit down at a computer and in 5 minutes or less have it purchased and scheduled to be delivered at your door within a day or two.

    Bezos vs. Jobs is a non-issue. Take a look at's home page and you can see instantly where the fight is (as others have pointed out): Amazon vs. Walmart.

    With that in mind, take a case in point: go to and try to buy a bicycle light. 58 choices. Amazon, over 1900.

    And: it looks like one reason WMT has the margin edge is in part because of its reduction of its capex (e.g. "Wal-Mart capex cuts could drive stock 10% higher" Financial Post 9/11/12), whereas the converse strategy is at work at Amazon (as others have also already mentioned).

    Over the long haul I think the AMZN strategy is the one that will win out, and the margin issue is a temporary artifact. Problem for the moment is that it looks like The Market has already anticipated it.
    Sep 27, 2012. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "The Fed will destroy the world," writes SocGen professional bear Albert Edwards (channeling Marc Faber). The man who in 2005 labeled Alan Greenspan "an economic war criminal" thinks Bernanke's policies will prove even more ruinous. Lowering his equity weighting to the minimum possible - 30% - he says the last time he did such was May 2008.  [View news story]
    Sep 27, 2012. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga Launches Lead Balloonville 2  [View article]
    wow. just, wow. mark, the "i will write breathless fluff about stocks so people will buy them" thing is so 20th century.

    can you flesh out your thesis with any more detail that what you have here?
    Sep 27, 2012. 03:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga Launches Lead Balloonville 2  [View article]
    In contrast to the pumper article about honeybadgers and cult of personality back in January-ish by whoever-it-was, back when ZNGA was 10,11,12 bucks, this article has some cogent thoughts and points worth considering. When ZNGA was 5 I thought it may have some legs it definitely didn't at 10, now at < 3.5, I partially share the hypothesis that the baby's been thrown out with the bath.

    My guess? Someone will buy them sometime, to get platforms, talent, technology, and take this somewhere that the current generation of koolaid drinkers don't envision.
    Sep 23, 2012. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An unmistakable trend is under way as investors cash in their bond ETF holdings and pour the money into stock funds. "A lot of fixed-income oriented people have decided to start chasing equities," says an ETF trader, as they fear being left behind by an equity market juggernaut (they already have been). Also seeing a rush are precious metals ETFs - the physical and the miners.  [View news story]
    TLT? Really? It's a bomb waiting to go off. TMV for me, though I forgot to get in at the easy entry.
    Sep 22, 2012. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Makes Zynga A Wall Street Darling  [View article]
    I agree it may make sense, now that it's been ground down to the size appropriate for what it is, that there may be some longterm upside for ZNGA. Interesting, though: your price target for eventual success is just about where the price was when this pump piece was published.
    Aug 25, 2012. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan - Pipe Dream Valuations  [View article]
    Thank you - saved me the trouble :)

    KMP beats by 1.5% annualized over 10
    KMR beats by 6.3% annualized over 3

    past results etc etc. So if you can tell me what the next 3 years looks like .... ?

    Or: I'm starting to just like a pair play.
    Aug 16, 2012. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan - Pipe Dream Valuations  [View article]
    Should the question be "Total Return" ?
    Aug 16, 2012. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment