Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View mobyss' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Are The Strongest S&P Sectors Favoring The Bulls? [View article]
    You might have a market that falls 20 to 25% in 2015, then another 20 to 30% in 2016 before finding a bottom. See the years 2000-2003.
    Sep 24, 2015. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF: Fed can delay rate hike [View news story]
    Crack whores love crack.

    And today the markets go up, up, up!
    Sep 3, 2015. 12:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1998 Playbook [View article]
    That's aggressive.

    I'd say ~2000, but only after a dip to ~1700 and a lot of promising from the Fed AFTER they raise rates in two weeks.
    Sep 2, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Market Now 'Too Big To Fail'? [View article]
    Funny, I didn't even know that the 200-week moving average was 1711, but that's almost EXACTLY where I predict the S&P will be in a couple weeks or so at the bottom of this "correction".

    I ultimately do think the market will revisit the highs of the last secular bull market (and likely fall significantly lower due to momentum and leverage) before another true secular bull can begin.

    IMO, the secular bear that began in March 2000 needs one more big drop to exhaust itself (likely related to debt resolution), and a bottom somehwere in the 1000-1200 range seems possible.
    Sep 2, 2015. 02:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Next For The S&P 500? [View article]
    What's next? In my estimation a bottom in the low 1700s around the time of the Fed meeting.

    Then with the Fed announcement of a 1/4 point increase, but also strong assurances that they'll wait "a while" before moving again (probably interpreted as six months), the market will rally for a few months into the new year, possibly over 2000 again.

    Coincidentally a bottom of ~1710 is just under a 20% drop from the May high, which means it's a "correction" and not a "bear market". After a couple hundred points of recovery all the pundits will say that it was "normal" and "healthy".

    Where the market goes in 2016 who knows. I can see the cyclical bear returning and see a 35 to 40% drop from 2000.
    Sep 2, 2015. 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why General Motors And Fiat Chrysler Combining Isn't Farfetched [View article]
    If GM and FiatChrylser merge, then you'll have a company with three truck brands, six mainstream car brands, and another SUV/car brand.

    In 2009 GM had two truck brands, six car brands, and an SUV brand, and they had to shed many of these in bankruptcy.

    I can't imagine there being a Chevrolet, Dodge, Chrysler and Buick under one corporate roof, let alone Cadillac and Fiat. Chevy, GMC, and Ram trucks?

    If GM and FC do merge it will be in preparation for a combined entity that is eventually 70% of the size of the two independent companies right now.

    A better plan, if FC cannot survive on its own, is to sell Jeep by itself (Ford?), sell Ram trucks (Hyundai/Kia? Honda?, Nissan?), and pretty much wind down Dodge and Chrysler.
    Sep 2, 2015. 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investor Who Predicted The Stock Market Correction Offers An Update [View article]
    Here's a comment of mine from the Monday morning of 8/24:

    "Sold SPXS at 24.40. This is almost a "flash crash", which means today's lows will be taken out again within a couple weeks. Looking for ~1700 or so on the S&P before it's done. Possible bounce to high 1900's first."

    Well, the S&P did bounce to 1992 by Friday and has since fallen again to the low 1900s. I still anticipate a bottom around 1700 when the Fed statement is relased (at which point they DO raise by 0.25% - "it's all priced in").

    I have been trading SPXS and SPXL since 8/18 and am up over 60% in that time period. I am currently holding a positon in SPXS (bought on Friday at $20) overnight - looking for a $24+ sell before a small positve market bounce good for 5 or 6% on SPXL. 1700 is still a LONG way down and there will be plenty of +/- action over the next 11 trading days.
    Sep 1, 2015. 07:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investor Who Predicted The Stock Market Correction Offers An Update [View article]
    You need to increase the profitability of your convictions. Trade 3X ETFs both "bull" and "bear".
    Sep 1, 2015. 07:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors August U.S. sales: -0.7% [View news story]
    I agree that Ohio-made Accords and Camrys will sell well as Americans choose to buy products manufactured by their neighbors and communities. Same with all the US-based manufacturing plants.

    Meanwhile GM has speculated about importing Chinese-made Buicks into the US. Good luck with that plan.
    Sep 1, 2015. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Do Stock Market Corrections Last? [View article]
    "What about the advance after the correction? The average gain is 47.0% (median of 32.4%). The average duration (from trough to next peak) is 495 days (median of 289 days)."

    So the author is comfortable going on the record as predicting that the S&P should be between 2500 and 2800 sometime between June and December 2016?
    Aug 28, 2015. 07:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Market Recovering Like October 2014 [View article]
    The "Bullard Bounce" in Oct 2014 played out as six or seven days of full-throttle buying until a new all-time high was reached just two weeks after the market bottom.

    This time, after two days the market "recovery" has petered out. Today was one of the flattest trading days in months. The bullish momentum has stopped dead cold.

    What might happen over the weekend? Fed statements? China soaring or collapsing? OPEC meeting? Monday could be either +2% or -2% depending on the "news".

    Unlike late 2014 there has been no Fed rescue (so far), and the market has a looooong way to go to reach new highs - over 7% - and today shows that there's very little momentum to get there.
    Aug 28, 2015. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour [View news story]
    Every day this week after 2 PM the S&P has moved by at least 30 points...
    Aug 28, 2015. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After A Tumultuous August, What Will September Bring? [View article]
    After the May 2010 flash crash the market recovered a little, then fell to about 10% less than the flash crash low.

    If that pattern repeats for the 8/24/2015 flash crash, then 10% from Monday's low is about S&P 1700.
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour [View news story]
    Massive panic by PPT at 3 PM. Accumulating SPXS now...
    Aug 27, 2015. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After A Tumultuous August, What Will September Bring? [View article]
    Actually right now might be a great time for one more trade this week.

    Clearly today starting at 2 PM the market was rollling off like it did on Tuesday, and "someone" stepped in after an hour and stopped the drop dead in its tracks. But clearly the broad market wants to sell off again. I think tomorrow is going to see a drop - after a two day, 5% rally from Tuesday's close. A dip to 1920-1930 would not surprise me at all.

    I'm buying SPXS right now - 600 shares so far, likely another 400 in the AH. China will sag overnight unless they spend a HUGE amount of Yuan supporting it, and global markets might follow.

    I can't imagine anyone wanting to hold big positions over the weekend right now. Profits will be taken tomorrow.
    Aug 27, 2015. 03:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment