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  • China: Well Now What? [View article]
    You're saying that stock ownership has not become more widespread in China over time, and that the average "retail investor" in China is not going to be affected by extreme market movement?

    Given how much China has changed in terms of property ownership, car ownership, and awareness/shopping at well known international brands, I would expect that the Chinese economic reaction to a crashing stock market will be much different in 2015 than it would have been in 2005 or 1995.
    Jul 30, 2015. 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 'Saves' In 7 Months: A Market Going Nowhere Fast [View article]
    "How many more times can the Fed talk up zero interest rates and put off an eventual click up in rates?"

    This one is more "real" than a lot of people realize now. As of yesterday, the meeting at which the Fed is expected to raise rates is THE NEXT ONE. Not a couple meetings away, not "later this year", but the next one.

    When will the market realize this? Obviously not today - but with 5 weeks and five days until the next Fed statement at some point you have to expect the market to have its "Oh sh*t" moment.

    Of course that then leads to the great opportunity for a "Fed save" - all they have to do is not raise rates in September and the market will rally hard - possibly from the 1900-2000 range right back up to 2130 or so where the "saves" always stall out.
    Jul 30, 2015. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market's Bias Within Range Favors Bulls [View article]
    I wonder about volume. That is, how many shares were traded on the 33% of days the market was below 2087 vs. the 67% of days above.

    It seems that selloff days ususally have MUCH larger trading volumes than rising days.
    Jul 30, 2015. 02:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Hike Moving Into Focus [View article]
    The Fed's continuing "We're getting close..." statments remind me of a story I heard about a guy that strung his five-year girlfriend along for a few more years with the phrase "There's a ring in your future..."

    After about three years of that she wised up and dumped him, but in the meantime he "got the milk for free" for a long while.

    It would not surprise me if in July 2016 we're all still waiting for the Fed to make their move as they continue to "look for some further improvement in the labor market..."

    Not to pick on this author, but a Fed hike has been "Moving into Focus" for what - five years now?
    Jul 29, 2015. 05:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Dilemma [View article]
    Most MBS will roll off naturally through payment/pre-payment in the next ten to 15 years. The ~$1.4 Trillion in MBS set to mature after 2038 (based on the origninal 30-year mortgage terms) will be mostly gone before 2030.
    Jul 29, 2015. 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon beats estimates, guides in-line; shares soar [View news story]
    "Hitch your wagon..."

    Pure 1999! Awesome.
    Jul 23, 2015. 05:51 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon beats estimates, guides in-line; shares soar [View news story]
    So what is Amazon's PE now, since they actually have "E"?

    Walmart trades at about 15, so with Amazon's growth and reinvestment strategy it could easily trade at 10x that, or a PE of 150.

    Is Amazon's PE 150 or less? Any higher than that seems a little too "1999" for me.
    Jul 23, 2015. 05:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is The Best Recovery Ever - And You Should Be Concerned [View article]
    I've been noting that whenever UE claims hit 280k per week, they generally start to increase rapidly within 6 to 9 months as the next recession hits. Consistent since the 1960s.

    UE claims have been in the 280-300k range now for several months. If they begin to exceed 310 or 320 then it's probable that the cycle is about to complete.

    Your article is a good data point too - hard to believe that the 61-month stretch is the "best it's ever been", but the facts don't lie. Thanks.
    Jul 22, 2015. 02:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides light; shares fall [View news story]
    Between September 2012 and June 2013 Apple stock dropped over 43%, from $100 to $56.

    A similar drop now, if the perception that the iwatch hasn't/won't do well and phone sales are slowing, COULD mean a drop from the ATH of $134 to around $76 or so.
    Jul 21, 2015. 05:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Revised Downward [View article]
    "However, the biggest disappointment came on Tuesday, when the Commerce Department reported that retail sales in June declined by 0.3%, which was substantially below economists’ consensus estimate of a 0.2% rise."

    All this "Christmas in July" stuff from Amazon, Walmart, etc is clearly in response to very soft retail sales. If we go into the "back to school" (starts now) and then "holiday" shopping seasons (which starts in early October) with 2007-like consumer weakness it will be hard to explain it away with weather or some other excuse.
    Jul 21, 2015. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment [View news story]
    Do you really think consumer confidence has anything to do with news about Greece? I'll bet less than 1 in 50 people on the street can even describe what's going on regarding Greece with any accuracy.

    No, consumer confidence slipped because good jobs are hard to find, wages are stagnant, and inflation is much higher than officially reported. I just heard that multi-family housing is being built at a rate not seen in decades. Millions of people who might have become homeowners are now living in shared-wall rental units - and many of them will never own their own home - one of the key parts of what has always been sold as the "American Dream".
    Jul 17, 2015. 12:34 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe at session high as ECB boosts emergency lending to Greek banks [View news story]
    I would assume that every Euro-cent that is put into Greek banks is immediately removed via atm, online transfer, or debit card purchase as soon as possible. The Greeks have to know by now that cash in the pocket is the only real money they "have".
    Jul 16, 2015. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Holds Out, Wins Even Worse Deal [View article]
    Very possibly the plan, or at least how it will really happen in the end.
    Jul 13, 2015. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Bull Market Isn't Finished Yet, Despite The Wild Ride [View article]
    Actually, China's Bull Market IS finished - that's what a 20% decline means. So now the question is whether it can have ANOTHER bull market - growing past the previous peak and setting new highs.

    Well, from here the previous peak of 5178 in the SHCOMP is about a +33% rise - not impossible but a pretty strong rally. Can China have a 33% rally while the rest of the world is likely at the beginning of a "period of weakness" (to put it mildly)? And 33% would just get the SHCOMP back to previous highs, let alone a strong new bull market.

    I still think we'll see 2500 before 5000 again, but with the Chinese gov't all but making selling illegal maybe they'll force it up one way or another.
    Jul 12, 2015. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. futures rise following Greek bailout proposal [View news story]
    Greece is looking to secure another three years of bailout with a bunch of empty promises. All the numbers in this proposal will be washed away by time - does anyone really believe they'll run a 3.5% budget surplus in 2018? How could they possibly predict that now?

    Once Greece has the money they'll begin to hem and haw again and weasel out of whatever agreements they've made, but by then the "Troika" will be stuck and will have to keep forking over the cash. Greece will never hit any meaningful economic targets, and they will never pay back all the hundreds of billions they've borrowed.
    Jul 9, 2015. 07:50 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment