mobyss's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/600611/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1453761/comments?source=feed#comment-19151501 19151501 Thu, 23 May 2013 03:23:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1042111?source=feed#comment-19151421 19151421 Thu, 23 May 2013 03:16:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1454401/comments?source=feed#comment-19134231 19134231
Plus they have that nice gold-copper shine - hard to duplicate (forge).]]> Wed, 22 May 2013 16:44:36 -0400
Plus they have that nice gold-copper shine - hard to duplicate (forge).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1041071?source=feed#comment-19130851 19130851
What happened guys? A 280 point intraday slide in the Dow - have the fundamentals changed that much since breakfast!?]]> Wed, 22 May 2013 15:48:42 -0400
What happened guys? A 280 point intraday slide in the Dow - have the fundamentals changed that much since breakfast!?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1452971/comments?source=feed#comment-19129821 19129821 Wed, 22 May 2013 15:26:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1454401/comments?source=feed#comment-19129541 19129541
I guess the day the FRB of NY calls the dump trucks in to haul off all that "worthless metal" cluttering up the basement of their vault is when I'll have to worry about holding gold.

Sounds like my "gold fantasies" are a combination of Lethal Weapon II and Die Hard III...]]> Wed, 22 May 2013 15:22:56 -0400
I guess the day the FRB of NY calls the dump trucks in to haul off all that "worthless metal" cluttering up the basement of their vault is when I'll have to worry about holding gold.

Sounds like my "gold fantasies" are a combination of Lethal Weapon II and Die Hard III...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1452971/comments?source=feed#comment-19127441 19127441 Wed, 22 May 2013 14:40:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1452971/comments?source=feed#comment-19123731 19123731 Wed, 22 May 2013 13:21:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1452971/comments?source=feed#comment-19123481 19123481
Bernanke lit up another crack rock this morning and is starting to pass the pipe around with that goofy smile on his bearded face, hoping everyone will "beam up" as usual.

But has this party just gone on too long? At some point even the hardest-core addict needs to eat something and maybe get some sleep. Can this market really keep advancing at 0.5% or more a day, week after week, month after month, with never a 1% correction, let alone 5% or 10%?

Holding TZA for now but I'll dump if it looks like Ben's Zeus-like string pulling keeps the hapless mortals dancing, drinking, and revelling...]]> Wed, 22 May 2013 13:15:47 -0400
Bernanke lit up another crack rock this morning and is starting to pass the pipe around with that goofy smile on his bearded face, hoping everyone will "beam up" as usual.

But has this party just gone on too long? At some point even the hardest-core addict needs to eat something and maybe get some sleep. Can this market really keep advancing at 0.5% or more a day, week after week, month after month, with never a 1% correction, let alone 5% or 10%?

Holding TZA for now but I'll dump if it looks like Ben's Zeus-like string pulling keeps the hapless mortals dancing, drinking, and revelling...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1450751/comments?source=feed#comment-19084391 19084391
Maybe just the inevitable transfer of real wealth between the tired western economies that dominated the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, and the rising economies of the developing world (which have seen almost all of the growth in industrialization of the last forty to fifty years).

If physical gold was just a "barbaric relic" of ancient times, then the Federal Reserve Bank of New York would not expend so many resources protecting whatever it is sitting in their Manhattan vault. They do, though, so clearly a big pile of physical gold still has real meaning and power in this modern global financial system.

How many ounces of physical gold have moved from western hands to Asian hands in the past few years? 5%, 10% of the world's supply? How much more will be transferred? Will a vault at a Bank of China location or somewhere in Dubai someday hold most global central bank gold supplies, as the FRBNY vault does today? ]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 15:17:51 -0400
Maybe just the inevitable transfer of real wealth between the tired western economies that dominated the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, and the rising economies of the developing world (which have seen almost all of the growth in industrialization of the last forty to fifty years).

If physical gold was just a "barbaric relic" of ancient times, then the Federal Reserve Bank of New York would not expend so many resources protecting whatever it is sitting in their Manhattan vault. They do, though, so clearly a big pile of physical gold still has real meaning and power in this modern global financial system.

How many ounces of physical gold have moved from western hands to Asian hands in the past few years? 5%, 10% of the world's supply? How much more will be transferred? Will a vault at a Bank of China location or somewhere in Dubai someday hold most global central bank gold supplies, as the FRBNY vault does today? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1450831/comments?source=feed#comment-19083521 19083521
So the market crashes when nobody expects it to? Does anyone expect the market to crash in May? Seven trading days left after today - and nobody expects anything but a constant rise for all seven? Got it.]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 15:07:00 -0400
So the market crashes when nobody expects it to? Does anyone expect the market to crash in May? Seven trading days left after today - and nobody expects anything but a constant rise for all seven? Got it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1038191?source=feed#comment-19081451 19081451 Tue, 21 May 2013 14:27:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1450411/comments?source=feed#comment-19081281 19081281 Tue, 21 May 2013 14:24:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1450411/comments?source=feed#comment-19080451 19080451
In reality, though, the Fed will continue with QE for many, many more years, pretending that they are considering "tapering" but in reality always increasing its pace. I can forsee monthly QE of $100 billion by the end of this year, and perhaps $150B by the end of 2014.

The missing wages and consumer spending power you mention is simply made up by Federal government welfare spending, all paid for by bonds sold to the Fed for money they conjure from thin air. How long can this go on? Not forever, but maybe for many years.

So maybe we'll see additional government programs to support aggregate spending - perhaps they'll lease cars for "needy" families, or just start buying houses (and furnishing them) outright if you meet certain requirements. General Motors, General Electric, and many other corporations would surely welcome this, as the phone companies now do for the ever-expanding government cellphone programs.

Working for a middle-class wage and paying your own bills might just be the stupidest move over the next few years, as the Fed, the government, and major corporations work together to prevent the very deflation you warn against here. Wages will not keep up but the corporations don't care where the "E" comes from as long as it grows and supports the PE that makes major shareholders wealthy. If GM could sell every car they make to the Federal Gov't at a decent profit margin do you think they'd care that every dollar spent was borrowed from the Fed? Of course not.]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 14:05:45 -0400
In reality, though, the Fed will continue with QE for many, many more years, pretending that they are considering "tapering" but in reality always increasing its pace. I can forsee monthly QE of $100 billion by the end of this year, and perhaps $150B by the end of 2014.

The missing wages and consumer spending power you mention is simply made up by Federal government welfare spending, all paid for by bonds sold to the Fed for money they conjure from thin air. How long can this go on? Not forever, but maybe for many years.

So maybe we'll see additional government programs to support aggregate spending - perhaps they'll lease cars for "needy" families, or just start buying houses (and furnishing them) outright if you meet certain requirements. General Motors, General Electric, and many other corporations would surely welcome this, as the phone companies now do for the ever-expanding government cellphone programs.

Working for a middle-class wage and paying your own bills might just be the stupidest move over the next few years, as the Fed, the government, and major corporations work together to prevent the very deflation you warn against here. Wages will not keep up but the corporations don't care where the "E" comes from as long as it grows and supports the PE that makes major shareholders wealthy. If GM could sell every car they make to the Federal Gov't at a decent profit margin do you think they'd care that every dollar spent was borrowed from the Fed? Of course not.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1449981/comments?source=feed#comment-19079321 19079321
This economy and stock market will NEVER be able to stand on its own two feet without QE, and the Fed knows it. They'll pretend to think about "tapering" but will never actually back off.

I'd love to hear Bernanke prove me wrong in his speech...and announce tapering starting tomorrow.]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 13:38:56 -0400
This economy and stock market will NEVER be able to stand on its own two feet without QE, and the Fed knows it. They'll pretend to think about "tapering" but will never actually back off.

I'd love to hear Bernanke prove me wrong in his speech...and announce tapering starting tomorrow.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1448741/comments?source=feed#comment-19078781 19078781
Well?]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 13:28:01 -0400
Well?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1441671/comments?source=feed#comment-19053471 19053471
Seriously, 2006 called and it wants its housing-bubble hysteria mindset back.]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 21:32:04 -0400
Seriously, 2006 called and it wants its housing-bubble hysteria mindset back.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1442911/comments?source=feed#comment-18967261 18967261
Amen. This is so hard to do, SO damn hard! If only we could trade like robots - no emotion...]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 19:08:56 -0400
Amen. This is so hard to do, SO damn hard! If only we could trade like robots - no emotion...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1442911/comments?source=feed#comment-18967211 18967211
I'm well diversified in bonds, stocks, cash, real estate, "collectibles", but very low in precious metals. I'd like to change this, but wisely.

I'm planning an accumulation strategy on autopilot, where I buy an ounce of gold periodically, where the period in days is equal to 60/(1000/(current price of a physical gold coin)). I'll begin this process when gold hits $1200.

This means I'll buy a Kruggerrand every 72 days. If they hit $1000, I buy one every 60 days. If they get to $800, I buy one every 48 days. At $500, one every 30 days. If for some reason gold goes back to $250 per ounce, I'm buying a real Kruggerrand every 15 days, and seriously growing my "stack". Average down, until I have 160 coins.

Ten pounds of real gold in the safe. That will be really fun to pass on to the grandchildren. The shares in Apple or GE or Ford? We'll see.]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 19:07:17 -0400
I'm well diversified in bonds, stocks, cash, real estate, "collectibles", but very low in precious metals. I'd like to change this, but wisely.

I'm planning an accumulation strategy on autopilot, where I buy an ounce of gold periodically, where the period in days is equal to 60/(1000/(current price of a physical gold coin)). I'll begin this process when gold hits $1200.

This means I'll buy a Kruggerrand every 72 days. If they hit $1000, I buy one every 60 days. If they get to $800, I buy one every 48 days. At $500, one every 30 days. If for some reason gold goes back to $250 per ounce, I'm buying a real Kruggerrand every 15 days, and seriously growing my "stack". Average down, until I have 160 coins.

Ten pounds of real gold in the safe. That will be really fun to pass on to the grandchildren. The shares in Apple or GE or Ford? We'll see.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1443421/comments?source=feed#comment-18962151 18962151 Fri, 17 May 2013 16:51:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1443631/comments?source=feed#comment-18962061 18962061
You can use statistics to show anything you want. A lot of people probably feel that holding at today's PE of 16.13, but would never buy more at these levels. We'll see what happens IF there is ever a 2 or 3% pullback again and tight trailing stops start cascading.]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 16:49:51 -0400
You can use statistics to show anything you want. A lot of people probably feel that holding at today's PE of 16.13, but would never buy more at these levels. We'll see what happens IF there is ever a 2 or 3% pullback again and tight trailing stops start cascading.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1030561?source=feed#comment-18913281 18913281
Can't be related though - too many SA posters have assured me that the markets are up due to fundamentals and QE has had no effect at all...]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 15:42:56 -0400
Can't be related though - too many SA posters have assured me that the markets are up due to fundamentals and QE has had no effect at all...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1440741/comments?source=feed#comment-18909491 18909491 Thu, 16 May 2013 14:39:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1029221?source=feed#comment-18901921 18901921
Eventually the swings will dampen out and housing will find it's true wage-relative value, then appreciate essentially at inflation +1% or so until the next big stupid housing bubble (late 2020s).]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 12:18:51 -0400
Eventually the swings will dampen out and housing will find it's true wage-relative value, then appreciate essentially at inflation +1% or so until the next big stupid housing bubble (late 2020s).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1440361/comments?source=feed#comment-18901331 18901331
Having ten or twelve pounds of gold coins to pass on to grandkids, etc. would be a nice diversification.]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 12:06:43 -0400
Having ten or twelve pounds of gold coins to pass on to grandkids, etc. would be a nice diversification.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1437611/comments?source=feed#comment-18883041 18883041
From what level? 1660? 2000? 2500?

Then buy opportunities should exist at 1020 or 1200 or 1500 -all lower than today. Unless you forsee a straight shot to 3000 or more with no bear markets (no recessions) then a better buying opportunity will exist later not during this euphoric mania.]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 00:37:21 -0400
From what level? 1660? 2000? 2500?

Then buy opportunities should exist at 1020 or 1200 or 1500 -all lower than today. Unless you forsee a straight shot to 3000 or more with no bear markets (no recessions) then a better buying opportunity will exist later not during this euphoric mania.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1438171/comments?source=feed#comment-18882731 18882731 Thu, 16 May 2013 00:26:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1027851?source=feed#comment-18882101 18882101 Thu, 16 May 2013 00:11:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1028751?source=feed#comment-18882001 18882001 Thu, 16 May 2013 00:07:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1436571/comments?source=feed#comment-18862311 18862311
Right now, with the S&P at the highest level above the 200 DMA since March 2000, I find it funny that CNBC "guests" like Tepper are recommending that the dumb-arse retail investor get "all in" NOW. After a 25% rally in six months.

So you go ahead and bet the farm. I get the feeling there will be a -10% to -20% market move soon, as there has been every six to ten months during this rally from the March 09 lows.

Unless you too agree that S&P under 1500 is a very real possibility and will provide a much better entry point than 1660.]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 15:16:57 -0400
Right now, with the S&P at the highest level above the 200 DMA since March 2000, I find it funny that CNBC "guests" like Tepper are recommending that the dumb-arse retail investor get "all in" NOW. After a 25% rally in six months.

So you go ahead and bet the farm. I get the feeling there will be a -10% to -20% market move soon, as there has been every six to ten months during this rally from the March 09 lows.

Unless you too agree that S&P under 1500 is a very real possibility and will provide a much better entry point than 1660.]]>