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mobyss

mobyss
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  • Daily State Of The Markets: Expectations For The Fed's Next Move [View article]
    If a taper in December would cause a market crash and thus affect Christmas shopping, then what will a taper in March (likely from a more inflated level) do? At some point QE will have to be scaled back, and every time it is delayed the potential for market pain is just increased.

    Let's have that 20% to 30% drop (40%?) from QE reduction happen, and spend a half-year sorting out at that lower level as QE is completely withdrawn. A 20% drop takes the S&P back to Jan 1, 2013, a 30% drop back to early 2012 - most of the post-2009 rally remains. THEN, if this economy is really getting better a rally back up to - and past - the highs will occur naturally. The current highs are pure QE levitation.

    Of course maybe QE will never end and the S&P will go up 20%+ per year forever. (Did I say that right bulls?)
    Nov 11 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Markets Don't Last Forever [View article]
    Real bull markets result in 1000% gains or more of the indexes from the lows. This market is up around 250% so far. If QE is ever removed and the markets must stand on their own legs based on fundamentals, we'll see whether this "bull" continues. I'm sure a lot of investors are waiting for that time to invest for the long term.

    Missing the first 200% to 300% of a real bull market is painful but not fatal. Like missing 1982 - 1984 when the S&P went from 103 to 206, then from 206 to 336 in 1987, until the massive crash back to 224 in October. Buying in in the next year after that under 300 resulted in 500% gains through 2000.

    Would it have been "better" to buy at the absolute bottom in 1982? Sure, but good luck finding anyone who actually did (despite their claims). Just like this bull - anyone who tells you they were completely liquid in August 2008 and bought (not held through) March 2009 is lying. They may have bought in 2010, 2011 or so, and are now up 50 or 60%. I myself bought GE at $8 in March 2009 (lucky) and sold it around $15 a year or so later, taking great profits. Should I have held it? Hindsight is 20/20.

    Once again - stop QE and then we'll see what we really have here.
    Nov 11 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Dilemma [View article]
    I don't think we'll see the previous old "lever" of interest rate adjustments for a long, long time. Japan has been near zero for over 20 years now, and the US is already at 5 years.

    As that tool faded away in effectiveness, the new tool of QE was conjured up to desperately try to revive the economy. But it's also not working because the economy is damaged too much (and continues to deteriorate in some metrics like workforce participation).

    I liken this to a heart attack patient. They had the attack five years ago, then went on a very strict diet (and some exercise) to try to get healthy again. But even with a diet of only broccoli and rice cakes (zero rates) they are not getting better, so now it's time for stents and continuous medication (QE). If this doesn't work then major surgery is called for.

    What is this in Fed terms? Who knows - maybe GDP targeting and expansion of the Fed's allowable bond purchases - student loans, car loans, credit card debt, municipal bonds, etc. If ALL debt rates are lowered under 1% then MAYBE something will finally break loose. But of course the Fed can only operate through debt purchases - or can it?

    We could possibly get to the point where the Fed is buying not just debt, but physical objects. Maybe the Fed will buy farms, houses, used cars, sailboats, old TVs - and pay much more than market value - anything to get cash into the economy and get people to spend again. What the Fed does with this stuff who knows - maybe destroy all the goods, and give the houses and farms away in a lottery.

    We all know that the only thing that ended the Great Depression was the production and destruction of machinery and munitions. Had the war supplies NOT been destroyed most of the jobs making them would have disappeared as the surplus build up.
    Nov 11 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail casts away doubts on equities [View news story]
    This is January 2006 in the housing market - "Buy now or you'll be priced out forever!".

    "Inflows of $8.9B into long-only equity funds last week were the largest amount since March 2000."

    March 2000?!? The absolute top of the internet bubble??? Unbelievable that we're doing it again!
    Nov 11 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twit Or Treat? [View article]
    Is this a joke?
    Nov 8 12:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twit Or Treat? [View article]
    "Some might say higher interest rates, but is that possible for interest rates to move much higher in such a sluggish economy?"

    10-year rates have moved from under 1.5% to 2.75% in 6 months - a 83% increase, and this is WITH continued $85B/month QE.

    Can rates increase by 83% again in the next six months even with continued QE? Absolutely. 10 year at 5% anyone?
    Nov 8 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Big beat on jobs with gain of 204K [View news story]
    "When one drops out of the labor force..they must have other alternatives"

    Section 8 housing? SNAP cards? 104 week unemployment benefits? Obamaphones?

    Lots and lots of alternatives to working.
    Nov 8 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big beat on jobs with gain of 204K [View news story]
    You have to wonder when it will hit 50% - a few more years maybe?
    Nov 8 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Burn after reading: Another Model S fire [View news story]
    Dan,

    You're right. What I need to do is include all the cars from Mexico and their daily mileage and their rate of gas car fires too. And I probably do need to drop the US gas fleet-miles per day estimate to account for 150M actual daily drivers.

    But other factors to consider are recency, and also the intended customer.

    People remember things they've heard about recently more than old things. Many recent fires from a high-profile company are in people's heads more than Ford's Pinto problems in the 1970s.

    Also, the intended customer. What we REALLY need to look at is the fires-per-mile of Tesla vs. BMW, MB, Lexus, Audi, etc. That's who buys Teslas, not regular Joes. Let's limit the comparison to 2013 model year luxury cars that cost over $70,000.

    Also, I'll bet if you pull out all the fifteen year old pickup trucks and Japanese cars with 180 thousand miles on them the daily gas car fire rate is much less than 500. Maybe 50 if you only consider 2003 and newer cars.

    One last thing - how many of those 500 daily car fires are due to the car coming into contact with something on the road vs. someone dropping a cigarette or a do-it-yourselfer not hooking the fuel line back on correctly?


    I
    Nov 7 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Job Market Remains Awful; Stimulus Measures Have Helped Little [View article]
    Ha - I remember that "stimulus employment chart"! What a goofy joke that turned out to be.

    Maybe they used the same people who made that prediction to design and run the Obamacare website.

    The stimulus was an absolute failure when measured against its stated goals. We'll see where O-care goes (with only 6 people signing up on the first day).

    O-care and jobs are like oil and water. You'll see next year how much the rush to replace people with machines will accelerate, now that business has another year to "get ready".
    Nov 7 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party Like It's 1999 [View article]
    Party like 1999? Then we should short the shoot out of all momo stocks because in about 12 months they'll be at 10% of today's prices, like Yahoo Dec 1999 to Dec 2000. Maybe Netflix?
    Nov 7 04:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Burn after reading: Another Model S fire [View news story]
    Then the car needs a front-scanning radar that will pop the car up when something is detected. See Mercedes Benz.
    Nov 7 04:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Complacency Of The Crowd [View article]
    I'm still holding the accumulated position on TZA started two weeks ago. Only got to 250 shares at an average price of $20.34. Will hold to see where this is going tomorrow. Either the jobs report is expected to be too good (QE taper sooner) or something else is causing the steady broad-market decline today.
    Nov 7 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Burn after reading: Another Model S fire [View news story]
    You'll never see a Tesla driven in the snow. Like a Ferrari or Corvette.
    Nov 7 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Burn after reading: Another Model S fire [View news story]
    Good job Sellinpanic. What was your stop loss on your position? It should have been 10% or so, which means you got out at around $175 in early October.

    If you've bought back in in the last few days you've got room to get out again if it continues to drop. Of course, if you bought yesterday at $150 you've got another $5 until it hits the 10% stop loss again.
    Nov 7 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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