mobyss

mobyss
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Stocks Are Still Not Overly Expensive  [View article]
    So the gist of this article is "Stocks are not as ridiculously overvalued as they were at previous peaks, so the bull must go on!"

    Ok, but then what? If they DO get as overvalued as they were in 2000 and 2007, then do we reasonably expect a 2000 and 2007 type bear market? -50% or better off the S&P?

    Maybe THIS time the PE overvaluation will not be quite as excessive, and therefore the bear market might only be 20 to 25%. Why does it have to go to extremes every time? Most long-term bulls would probably agree that 25% off 2000 now is better than 50% off 2500 in a year or two, in terms of planning out buying opportunities and peace of mind.
    Sep 10, 2014. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CBS Banking On 'NFL Thursday Night Football' To Crush Competition This Fall In More Ways Than One  [View article]
    Strange that NBC actually got the season opener Thursday night Seattle-Green Bay game.

    CBS appears to have the week 2 through 8 games, and week 13 Thanksgiving day. Weeks 9,10,11,12,14,15,16,17 are still up for grabs, or maybe will just be on NFL Network. Or maybe Fox, NBC, or even ABC will bid for those games?

    Only ESPN suffers from "cord cutting", so don't confuse TV broadcast with cable. Also, Eli stinks so the "Manning Bowl" will not have the draw it used to.
    Sep 10, 2014. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - A Healthy Correction  [View article]
    Right.

    I thought that "corrections" used to mean -10% - is that too scary to even contemplate now and we can only handle -4%?

    Pretty soon a -0.6% day like yesterday will be considered a "healthy correction"

    The Scottish independence vote, if the result is "Yes", could be worth a real -10 to -15%, or S&P down to 1700-1800, back to the levels of one year ago.
    Sep 10, 2014. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Decelerating Growth For New Home Sale Prices  [View article]
    I live in the Phoenix metro area, and remember very clearly both the boom times of mid 2005 when people were sleeping overnight outside new home sales offices and signing contracts on the hoods of cars, to early 2007 when those same builders were offering houses at the same price as six months before, but this time with a brand-new Lexus parked in the garage. Somehow this $40,000 incentive did not count as "lowering the comps", angering the buyers from six months prior. Of course by 2009 it didn't matter whether you bought before or after the free Lexus, you were still down about 30-40% of what you paid. Of course since the car was titled in your name free and clear at closing I suppose that would have been better - just mail the keys to the lender and drive away (and many people did)!

    I've already seen price cuts of 10%+ on new houses compared with last year in several new developments in the "East Valley" region. I think we'll look back on late 2013 as the peak of the "second bubble", with another bottom around late 2015 with prices about 20% lower than the top.
    Sep 10, 2014. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Decelerating Growth For New Home Sale Prices  [View article]
    Houses are depreciating assets, absolutely.

    The land underneath houses MIGHT appreciate in value depending on the strength of the local and national economies, and inflation.
    Sep 10, 2014. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Scottish Referendum May Already Be A Black Swan  [View article]
    You should title your article "Scotland may form monetary union with Russia if England says No"

    Because after all, they might...or they might not.
    Sep 10, 2014. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Peter Schiff Recommending People Save Worthless Dollars?  [View article]
    I think we might be looking at a Tsunami situation.

    Up until now, all the QE, ZIRP, Abenomics, and "whatever it takes" worldwide has not really done anything to get the real economies of the world moving, and while the ECB is likely to double-down on stimulus in the near future, the Fed is starting to give up after six years of unsuccessful pump-priming (and the realization that they'd better reload to get ready for the next crisis).

    But the ECB won't be able to do enough fast enough, and the Fed's necessary pullback is going to result in the "Deflation boogeyman" returning with a vengeance. Consumer prices, asset prices, commodities, housing - all will fall again like they did in 2008-2010. But then the Central Banks will really panic and flood the world with liquidity like human economic history has never seen before. I'm talking at least another $8T of QE from the Fed and equivalent from the ECB. The BOJ will probably just print enough Yen to buy literally every bond in Japan.

    So like a Tsunami, the water (liquidity) will first recede, and then it will rush in. The window of opportunity for cash will be short, but obvious. Stocks at 40 to 50% off from today, housing back down another 20 to 25%, oil at $50, gold at $650, silver at $10 - all very possible. But then, the wave hits, another $25 Trillion is unleashed on the globe, and within a couple of years prices have "permanently reset" to a level about 100% higher than they were in 2006 (pre-crisis), so baseline $200 oil, $5 gasoline, $2000 gold, 2800 S&P 500, etc.
    Sep 8, 2014. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If The Economy Is Recovering, Why Is The Labor Force Participation Rate At A 36 Year Low?  [View article]
    "Hoarding Money" used to be known as "Saving".

    "Working a full-time 40+ hour a week job" will soon be known as "Job hoarding".

    "Owning productive assets that pay dividends" will be known as "Income hoarding"

    "Having a net worth more than a hundred grand" will be known as "Wealth hoarding", and well, then you'd better watch out - this is the one that eventually leads to people being pulled from their houses out into the streets.
    Sep 8, 2014. 01:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Wrath Of Abenomics Crushes Japanese Consumers, Slams Economy  [View article]
    Everything in this article is true, and it's exactly what the Federal Reserve hopes to duplicate in the US. "Increase Inflation" = debase the currency and destroy the value of savings. The Fed would LOVE nothing less than a 5 to 6% jump in price levels without a corresponding increase in earnings - that would surely clear all those savings accounts out as people need to spend it to maintain their current quality of life. Or maybe people won't dance to the Fed's tune, and they'll choose to just cut back consumption as the Japanese have.
    Sep 8, 2014. 01:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Envy Has Got Nothing To Do With It  [View article]
    The main biological imperative for all living things is to reproduce. Generally humans put a lot of effort into caring for their own children, some effort into caring for their grandchildren, and little if any for their great-grandchildren. Very few even bother (or are able) to consider what their great-great-grandchildren will have to contend with, or even care if they will exist at all.

    However, if you've reached the financial level where you can begin considering long-term family legacies, then there really is no upper limit. Why not make plans for your heirs 100 or 200 years from now? Think of the foundations that exist today - Rockefeller, Ford, etc - these are due to the successes of people generations ago. The Kennedy family is still living off the wealth created by old Joe almost 100 years ago, and for some reason people still hold them in esteem.

    So really, if you're able to accumulate land, hard resources, current-day fiat currency, ownership of productive assets, and other wealth, haven't you given your long-term heirs a really good shot at success for a long time, at least in theory?

    Many of today's "vocal billionaires" like to say how they'll leave their kids with nothing, but most of the very rich are surely not going to go this route. Is this the path to aristocracy? Possibly. But to really change that you'd have to counter the basic biology of humans, convincing them that looking out for the success of their own DNA legacy is a bad idea. Good luck with that.
    Sep 5, 2014. 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Envy Has Got Nothing To Do With It  [View article]
    I just thought of an interesting platform for a reality show:

    A fresh high school graduate is brought on and given a choice - $100,000 cash, or ongoing paid tuition for a Bachelor's, Master's, and PhD over the next ten years at universities of the student's choice.

    I'll bet at least 75% choose the fast cash, and then the reality show would be following these idiots around as they blow the money on cars and bling and end up with nothing within 12 months.

    The 25% who chose college would quietly be given about a half-million in a trust that settles the anticipated college costs over the next decade, and it's likely that most of these would not stick with it for the long haul and forfeit the money anyway.
    Sep 5, 2014. 08:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Envy Has Got Nothing To Do With It  [View article]
    "The remedy for income inequality, it seems to me, would be to establish economic policies which create well paying jobs and foster economic upward mobility.

    Economic policies can create well paying jobs?

    Such as?
    Sep 5, 2014. 07:09 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble Is In Cash, Not Stocks  [View article]
    "High cash levels equate to a huge pool of marginal buyers, rather than sellers, for stocks and other “real” assets. "

    What does this actually mean? If there are "more buyers than sellers", it doesn't mean that at each ACTUAL transaction there is anything other than a 1-to-1 match between buyers and sellers. LITERALLY, down to the last share.

    There will never be less "cash on the sidelines" than there is now. For every dollar that enters the market through a share purchase, a dollar leaves the market and goes back into the cash pool.

    There could be a hundred Trillion dollars on the sidelines, but absolutely none of it can "get into the market" without forcing money out.

    Now, this does not include IPOs, but since stock buybacks are greatly exceeding issuance right now, there is even more cash leaving the market and not going back into it.
    Sep 5, 2014. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not Time To Sell, It's Time To 'Be Right And Sit Tight'  [View article]
    "capturing a huge amount of profits"

    So you HAVE sold?
    Sep 4, 2014. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro: A 'Must Have' Holiday Gift (And Stock) For 2014  [View article]
    "Yes, not a brand new market, but new to the mainstream market due to the hundreds of millions in free publicity the IPO, YouTube, NPR, NBC, etc., etc. have provided. Also, hype builds, supply runs thin and it builds upon itself."

    Reminds me a lot of what people said about the Segway. Matt Laurer on NBC said it would "change the way cities are designed". Yeah, right.

    GO Pro was cool for surfers and skydivers - now it's supposed to make dog walkers cool? I'll look for the GoPro video of someone sitting on the couch watching other people's GoPro videos on Youtube.
    Sep 4, 2014. 02:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,491 Comments
5,487 Likes