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mobyss

mobyss
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  • 'Sell In May And Go Away' Arrives Early In 2014 [View article]
    David,

    You've got that right. In addition to SA I spend a little time at some Auto-industry focused forums, and there has definitely been a change in sentiment at even some of the hardest-core GM fan sites.

    The rollout of the latest 2014-2015 GM pickups/SUVs has been a disaster. Chevy's new pickup model is getting beat by a several-year-old Dodge design. 2015 GMC Yukons are lighting on fire during test drives. When Ford's new aluminium F150 comes out in about six months GM's pickup share will deteriorate further.

    There are many people who will never consider GM again because of the bailout and $10+ billion loss to the taxpayer. Now there will be more because of this safety-defect coverup and recall. GM is going to watch its market share drip down and down just like they have been for decades now. I believe they are at 18% US market share, but every other company is always there working to take every point of that share away. Give it ten or fifteen years and I see the US market share order as Ford, Toyota, GM, Nissan, Fiat, Honda.
    Apr 11, 2014. 02:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Of Course The Market Is Rigged! [View article]
    The thing we've got to remember is that politically this is not going to be a priority for very long - only when there is a "60 minutes" segment about it.

    Why? Because only about 20% of the population really cares about the stock market, and of that group maybe half (not the 401k zombies) are really aware of HFT, and among that group maybe half want it to be regulated (some of the other half benefits). So that's about 5% of the population that is really "offended" by HFT. To the average person it's just a bunch of "Wall Street Computer Mumbo-Jumbo".

    Maybe the way to "beat" HFT is to become part of HFT. Is there an easy way to invest in the "HFT armies" so that you can personally benefit from the millidollar profits on millisecond trades?
    Apr 11, 2014. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Of Course The Market Is Rigged! [View article]
    The way I place buy orders is as follows:

    If the stock is trading at say $30.00 and I'm willing to pay that, I'll set a trailing stop of 0.10 that doesn't trigger until the stock hits 29.85, along with an "one cancels the other" buy at say 29.75. If the HFTs "see" my order, they'll have to take the stock down by 15 cents to activate it, then I'll buy at 29.95 (or whatever the overshoot is on the way back up - never more than a penny or two). Sometimes the HFTs take it down too much and I'll get the "29.75" filled. Do I sometimes not get my order filled? Yes, but I'd say 90% of the time I do.

    Flip the whole thing around for sells.
    Apr 11, 2014. 01:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum stocks collapse as Nasdaq posts worst loss since 2011 [View news story]
    A 5% down move will be called a "Bear Market"

    A 10% down move will be called "Financial Armageddon"

    A 20% down move won't be called anything because everyone in the financial media will have jumped off a 50-story building, and CNBC, etc will just be dead air.
    Apr 10, 2014. 05:19 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum stocks collapse as Nasdaq posts worst loss since 2011 [View news story]
    "This"?

    What - a 2 or 3% down day? An S&P that's only about 3% off its all-time highs?

    The "riff raff" won't be cleared out until -10%, -15% or maybe into the -20% range. At S&P 1500, you can be sure that all the "me too" investors from the last 12 months will be gone.
    Apr 10, 2014. 05:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Rally After Federal Reserve Hints That It Will Keep Interest Rates Low [View article]
    "Markets Rally After Federal Reserve Hints That It Will Keep Interest Rates Low"

    Mr. Mason - with all due respect, this is not news. The Fed has been shouting this from the rooftops for three or four years now, and anyone who doesn't know this is living on a fishing boat in the Indian Ocean.

    The Fed is spent, and they are worried that their "low rate pledge WELL beyond a reasonable time" is not believed anymore. If they really want to "convince" the markets they'll leave rates low until inflation is on the edge of going out of control, they would finish winding down QE and then disband, saying they will not meet again until early 2016, come hell or high water.

    Of course, inflation might be 4% or more by then, and then they'll have a whole new set of problems.
    Apr 10, 2014. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Increase In Volatility Spells Trouble For The Market [View article]
    "After this quarter's "acceptable" earnings our domestic economy is poised for expansion of CapEx and much improved earnings for the balance of the year and going into 2015."

    Sounds a lot like what I heard in 2011, 2012, 2013...

    I also like to buy low and sell high. I bought SPXS last Wednesday for around $30 and sold it this morning for 31.30 - a little over 4% in a week. Then I bought some more near the close today for 30.70.
    Apr 9, 2014. 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At the close [View news story]
    When the Fed starts holding "Secret but Non-Emergency" meetings you know they are getting VERY nervous about things. We almost need daily hand-holding ("statements") from the Fed to keep the market from sliding.
    Apr 9, 2014. 06:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC minutes show member concern over "dots" [View news story]
    Just like Greenspan did in the late 1990's. The Fed always gets it right, right?
    Apr 9, 2014. 05:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC minutes show member concern over "dots" [View news story]
    Are the minutes kept secret for the four weeks? Who keeps them? The line-by-line record - who compiles that? Where is that kept?

    A lot of faith is required to believe that what the Fed now says they talked about four weeks ago is 100% accurate. On a day like today, it seems pretty convenient that the minutes were so "comforting" to the markets. Pure coincidence that they come after a pretty fast drop that hadn't yet really turned around.
    Apr 9, 2014. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks, bonds, gold pop on dovish FOMC minutes [View news story]
    Those algos are just destroying the shorts today. We'll see what they back it up with tomorrow.

    Picking up SPXS today.
    Apr 9, 2014. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks, bonds, gold pop on dovish FOMC minutes [View news story]
    The Federal Reserve is not part of the government. They are a privately-owned bank that is WAY above the law.
    Apr 9, 2014. 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Increase In Volatility Spells Trouble For The Market [View article]
    "You know no more than anybody whether a severe correction is coming, and I would bet that it is not."

    Is your bet based on information or a hunch (or is it just the result of a 50/50 coin flip which could have gone the other way)? You must know something that "anybody" (else) doesn't know. Please share.
    Apr 9, 2014. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Increase In Volatility Spells Trouble For The Market [View article]
    "This year is only 3 months old and we have already witnessed a dramatic increase in volatility and 2 short but painful corrections."

    What short but painful corrections? You mean the <7% drop into February, and the 2.5% drop that ended yesterday? +/- 2.5% used to be normal daily/weekly market noise, but now it's a "painful correction"!?

    It used to be that a correction was a 10% drop. Now, anything more than a few percent is considered a major market plunge and requires a full-court press by the Fed to "reassure" investors that they've got the market's back.

    Can you imagine what a real 10% drop would do? Apparently there would be brokers jumping out of windows and talk of "Financial Armageddon" everywhere.

    This market is so high-strung and nervous that anything could set it off at any moment. When a 2.5% drop is considered serious, you know that there's a real problem under the surface. Confidence is just not there.
    Apr 9, 2014. 03:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Ignition Vs. Tesla's Titanium And 'Befuddling' Peak Deliveries [View article]
    Yes, Tesla is exposing themselves to liability for using LI batteries. I never said they weren't.

    If someday a memo is found that shows a Tesla engineer had said there was a significant design flaw, a dozen or more people died from it, Tesla covered it up for ten years, and then finally admitted "guilt" (but not liability), then I would certainly argue that Tesla would be in the same position GM is in now.
    Apr 9, 2014. 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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