Bull Of The Day: OmniVision Technologies [View article]
OVTI just broke out above its post earnings release high of $19.48 yesterday. Looks like $19.48 is new support now. OVTI is in all the right places: Apple, ZTE, Huawei, HTC etecetera. Its a nice small cap, growth stock with a lot of favorable tailwinds right now.
Dwindling Supply Means Palladium Is Ready To Shine [View article]
I have been hearing that Russia is about to run out for several years now, but I think Westerners are largely guessing at the size of their stockpile. That being said, their sharply reduced 2012 sales due lend some support to the idea that their pallaidum inventory is finally running low.
Seems like PALL has pretty sharp downward momentum based on dollar/rand currency exchange and loss of confidence in emerging market growth. I think it could cut below the 200 day sma where it sits right now. I will take a hard look at adding to my long term PALL position when/if we drop to the 50 week sma around $67.00. JMO.
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
AMZN stock price is trading in a four month old down trend channel. It just failed to beak to the upside of the channel again the last few days and looks like it has started heading back down to the lower trendline of the channel. Yes, many longs hold a boatload of profits in Amazon, but now it seems like Amazon is losing its momentum on the stock chart, losing its momentum with respect to revenue growth and losing its momentum with respect to earnings --- even going negative on earnings last year. If a person has a big profit from being long in Amazon, this would be a good place to take the money and run. JMO. http://bit.ly/10PITlo
3 Stocks To Buy, 1 Stock To Sell And What's Next For The Market [View article]
Your AMZN chart looks bearish to me. Indeed, AMZN has failed once again to break out of that four month old downward sloping channel pictured on the right of your chart and appears ready to make another trip to the lower trendline.
Amazon Earnings Broadly As Expected [View article]
OK. Thanks for the response. I have seen some of the AMZN bulls making statements like AMZN will own cloud services like they own online bookselling. Seems rather improbable to me.
Amazon Earnings Broadly As Expected [View article]
Paulo, Got a message in my Schwab news feed today, 4/29, saying "Microsoft shares are higher Monday on reports that its Windows Azure software platform has surpassed the $1 billion annual sales mark for the first time ever." Sounds like MSFT, a late entrant, is gaining significant traction in cloud services. When I just looked at the Amazon 2012 annual report, I see sales of "Other", which includes Amazon AWS and some other stuff (not broken out further), at 2.523 billion.
Am I correctly comparing these AMZN and MSFT data points --- roughly 2.5 billion and 1 billion?
Amazon Falls, But Will It Continue? [View article]
Amazon really struggling to get off the mat (200 DMA) this morning on a nice up day for the Nasdaq. Perhaps the inevitable price breakdown of Amazon has begun?
Apple: $420 A Share Could Have Marked The Bottom [View article]
Benitus, Given that you mention that Jobs was envisioning and planning many of today's Apple's products well over twenty years ago, given that he seemed to possess all his faculties and creative imagination right up to the end and given that he had a long time to get his affairs in order before he passed away, perhaps we can reasonably hope that Jobs left "big idea" projects and products for the other creative folks at Apple to work on for at least decade following his death?
Throwing Out The Baby With The Bathwater [View article]
I believe CRUS has roughly $3.25 dollar content in an iPhone 5 versus roughly $1.45 an iPhone 4 and 4S, so that explains a lot of the huge, 87% year over year increase in revenues for the March quarter as opposed to simply higher unit volume.
Amazon.com Q1 2013 Earnings Preview And Earnings Model [View article]
RE: Their earnings models always shoot right up to the moon ... 2 years in the future. Always 2 years in the future. Obviously if one goes back 2 years one discovers that these models were seeing $5.50 in EPS right around now, instead of the loss AMZN reported.
That is the game, but trying to figure out when the market is no longer willing to play this game is the tough part. So far the market simply hasn't cared about Amzn earnings. Amazon sells at 22 times all the cumulative trailing earnings put together that it has made in its entire existence since 1995. Maybe when revenue growth finally drops in to the teens [currently low twenties] and then even terming Amazon a "high growth company" becomes a suspicious representation, the stock price will finally roll over?
Thank you for your excellent article. I am thinking that some time between the Apple conference call on Tuesday and the Crus conference call on Thursday would be a good time to go long a CRUS September or Jan '14 call spread.
Between the conference calls, we will presumably already have heard the bad news from CRUS (the warning this week) and any additional bad news from Apple on their CC, and we can then likely look forward to more positive news from CRUS at their CC. In any case, CRUS is seriously undervalued as you noted, so it may well be worth a shot to get long around these low prices to position to cash in later in the year. JMHO.
Cirrus Warning Takes Down Apple And Suppliers [View article]
RE: If Apple drops after earnings, I think Cirrus goes lower.
Thanks. You are probably correct. CRUS and Apple stock price direction are pretty correlated for now, but besides the increasing CRUS dollar content per mobile device, i.e. ~ $3.25 per iPhone 5 versus ~ $1.50 per iPhone 4 and 4s, there are at least two other potential upside catalysts: One, CRUS has said they will be soon announcing another tier one customer, although we haven't heard anything yet, and two, they have a nice foothold in the nascent LED lightbulb industry with Phillips. As far as I am aware, Crus is the only company that has developed technology that allows these bulbs to be used with a standard dimmer switch, which gives Phillips and CRUS a significant edge over GE and the rest of the competition imo.
If Apple and CRUS sell off following the Apple results next Tuesday afternoon, I will strongly consider going long CRUS with options ahead of CRUS earnings call on Thursday, figuring that between CRUS' warning and Apple's earnings report that most of the bad news is already priced in to CRUS and that the actual CRUS CC will more likely be a positive catalyst than a negative catalyst. In any case, I would not be short going in to the CRUS conference call. JMHO.
Cirrus Warning Takes Down Apple And Suppliers [View article]
RE: The 6-month and 1-year values are stock performance, not revenues.
OK, I see. Sorry, I should have seen that. Thanks for the article.
Here is where I am hoping Cirrus stock performance can eventually diverge to the upside from Apple stock performance: Assuming that Cirrus is not replaced by another supplier, Cirrus will grow at a considerably faster rate than unit sales of Apple mobile devices by virtue of the considerably faster rate of growth of Cirrus dollar content per unit of Apple mobile device.
Cirrus Warning Takes Down Apple And Suppliers [View article]
Crus' revenues for the year ending March 2013 at $810 million will be up 383 million over one year ago. This is a 90% year over year increase, not a 24% decrease as you state in your table. And it looks like EPS for year end March 2013 will miss at $3.20 per share versus $3.54 expectations, but this is still a 136% year over year increase.
For the now guided down first quarter for Cirrus ending this coming June, we are looking at revenue growing 61% year over year on a quarterly basis and EPS more than doubling year over year on a quarterly basis. The above results, which include this weeks inventory reserve adjustment and reduction for June quarter guidance, are still outstanding results. Crus is ridiculously oversold and has the most upside of all the stocks you mention. JMHO.
Amazon.com Q1 2013 Earnings Preview And Earnings Model [View article]
Paulo, Thanks very much for sharing your earnings model..... and for being willing to take the flack in the event you are wrong. Keep up the good work.
Bull Of The Day: OmniVision Technologies [View article]
Dwindling Supply Means Palladium Is Ready To Shine [View article]
Seems like PALL has pretty sharp downward momentum based on dollar/rand currency exchange and loss of confidence in emerging market growth. I think it could cut below the 200 day sma where it sits right now. I will take a hard look at adding to my long term PALL position when/if we drop to the 50 week sma around $67.00. JMO.
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
http://bit.ly/10PITlo
3 Stocks To Buy, 1 Stock To Sell And What's Next For The Market [View article]
Also, AMZN's declining fundamentals in 6 easy charts:
http://bit.ly/12oSsY6
Amazon Earnings Broadly As Expected [View article]
Amazon Earnings Broadly As Expected [View article]
Am I correctly comparing these AMZN and MSFT data points --- roughly 2.5 billion and 1 billion?
Amazon Falls, But Will It Continue? [View article]
Apple: $420 A Share Could Have Marked The Bottom [View article]
Throwing Out The Baby With The Bathwater [View article]
Amazon.com Q1 2013 Earnings Preview And Earnings Model [View article]
That is the game, but trying to figure out when the market is no longer willing to play this game is the tough part. So far the market simply hasn't cared about Amzn earnings. Amazon sells at 22 times all the cumulative trailing earnings put together that it has made in its entire existence since 1995. Maybe when revenue growth finally drops in to the teens [currently low twenties] and then even terming Amazon a "high growth company" becomes a suspicious representation, the stock price will finally roll over?
Cirrus Logic: Overwhelmingly Undervalued [View article]
Between the conference calls, we will presumably already have heard the bad news from CRUS (the warning this week) and any additional bad news from Apple on their CC, and we can then likely look forward to more positive news from CRUS at their CC. In any case, CRUS is seriously undervalued as you noted, so it may well be worth a shot to get long around these low prices to position to cash in later in the year. JMHO.
Cirrus Warning Takes Down Apple And Suppliers [View article]
Thanks. You are probably correct. CRUS and Apple stock price direction are pretty correlated for now, but besides the increasing CRUS dollar content per mobile device, i.e. ~ $3.25 per iPhone 5 versus ~ $1.50 per iPhone 4 and 4s, there are at least two other potential upside catalysts: One, CRUS has said they will be soon announcing another tier one customer, although we haven't heard anything yet, and two, they have a nice foothold in the nascent LED lightbulb industry with Phillips. As far as I am aware, Crus is the only company that has developed technology that allows these bulbs to be used with a standard dimmer switch, which gives Phillips and CRUS a significant edge over GE and the rest of the competition imo.
If Apple and CRUS sell off following the Apple results next Tuesday afternoon, I will strongly consider going long CRUS with options ahead of CRUS earnings call on Thursday, figuring that between CRUS' warning and Apple's earnings report that most of the bad news is already priced in to CRUS and that the actual CRUS CC will more likely be a positive catalyst than a negative catalyst. In any case, I would not be short going in to the CRUS conference call. JMHO.
Cirrus Warning Takes Down Apple And Suppliers [View article]
OK, I see. Sorry, I should have seen that. Thanks for the article.
Here is where I am hoping Cirrus stock performance can eventually diverge to the upside from Apple stock performance: Assuming that Cirrus is not replaced by another supplier, Cirrus will grow at a considerably faster rate than unit sales of Apple mobile devices by virtue of the considerably faster rate of growth of Cirrus dollar content per unit of Apple mobile device.
Cirrus Warning Takes Down Apple And Suppliers [View article]
For the now guided down first quarter for Cirrus ending this coming June, we are looking at revenue growing 61% year over year on a quarterly basis and EPS more than doubling year over year on a quarterly basis. The above results, which include this weeks inventory reserve adjustment and reduction for June quarter guidance, are still outstanding results. Crus is ridiculously oversold and has the most upside of all the stocks you mention. JMHO.
Amazon.com Q1 2013 Earnings Preview And Earnings Model [View article]