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Philip Marlowe

Philip Marlowe
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  • U.S. Silica beats by $0.10, beats on revenue [View news story]
    They also raised forward guidance. Or at least they said they would arrive at the top end of the recently raised guidance. This confirms that SLCA is not affected by the recently falling oil prices. Their share price should soon recover and surpass recent highs.
    Oct 29 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense -26.2% AH on FQ2 miss, guidance, GM drop [View news story]
    What you said about apple changing their product is not true. What happened, is Chinese companies were building large numbers of cell phones in the first two calendar quarters of this year, and they suddenly kind of stopped some time in Q3. Meanwhile the foundries started telling clients that they were getting booked up, so if you want anything made you should order it ahead of time. It seems INVN got caught in the excitement and ordered too many of their older model chips.

    Rumor is the chinese are starting to ramp up production again. But they are ramping new phones which will likely have INVN's new chips in them.

    Regarding your mention of competitors. Yes they do have competitors but they seem to be doing much better than them. If they continue to dominate the market for a year or two their competitors will become much less competitive. The semiconductor business is cruel to a low volume competitor. Look at what happened to AMD.
    Oct 29 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense -26.2% AH on FQ2 miss, guidance, GM drop [View news story]
    In semiconductors, margins tend to increase the longer you make a part and the more parts you make. Furthermore, margins are always much lower at the very beginning, as then you are still learning the kinks of the process and you have a lot of bad parts you have to throw away. This quarter was a bit unusual, because INVN was starting a new chip for apple, but at the same time apple insisted on very high initial volumes. This is usually a killer for margins. It is preferable to start out with slower volumes, so that any mistakes do not cost a lot in bad chips. I am sure even the apple margins will start going up in the next couple of quarters.

    Yes, apple are cheap. But if you have the best product in the market, even apple will have to pay. This report was a bit encouraging because, it seemed to me to confirm that invn still have the overwhelming lead in technology. As they add more features and differentiate themselves more, they will be able to demand more money even from Apple. Seems, INVN's next step would be to make a chip that allows you to delete the motion processor. This would be worth a lot to Apple.

    Regarding startups, this is always a danger, but startups in semiconductors are very very difficult. Production prices are always significantly lower for higher volume, which makes it very difficult to do a startup. You basically need another quantum leap in technology, and that does not happen often. INVN had a quantum leap over STM and Bosch, and it took them years to replace them on the iphone.
    Oct 28 11:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plunging oil prices unleash short sellers on oilfield service companies, ETFs [View news story]
    Offshore oilfield service companies may very well be in trouble. But, US on shore drilling is continuing with full force, as discussed by another market current earlier today. Frackers are improving technology and reducing costs. Fracking growth is unlikely to slow down, and thus far none of the E&P or services companies that have reported results have indicated any plans for a slow down.
    Oct 28 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amkor -13.2% AH following Q3 miss, light Q4 guidance [View news story]
    Amkor is just not that competitive. For Q3, SPIL grew revenues 13% yoy (twice the growth of Amkor) and had a much better gross margin. SPIL does not have much of iphone business and does rely on android phones, like amkor.

    ASX, which is the best investment in the industry right now, grew 17% yoy in Q3. They have not announced their gross margin yet. But, then again, ASX have most of the Apple biz.

    So Amkor can complain about Samsung all they want. They are partially right that Samsung is weak, but the overall semi industry is growing nevertheless. Amkor's main problem seems to be that they do not have a competitive advantage over ASX and SPIL.
    Oct 27 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook [View news story]
    This is actually very good considering the crash of oil prices that happened in October. The new orders index is especially encouraging.
    Oct 27 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maxim -5.8% AH on revenue miss, soft FQ2 guidance [View news story]
    Synaptics, however, posted inline guidance.
    Oct 23 10:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Super Micro Computer beats by $0.08, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Furthermore, Supermicro forward guidance beats on revenue and EPS. Beats across the board for SMCI!

    The fact that SMCI showed 43% organic growth (no acquisitions!) while the entire x86 server growth was only around 10% shows SMCI has a big competitive advantage.

    But did SMCI have to give up margins to achieve their amazing 43% growth? Apparently not, because margins grew sequentially and yoy.
    Oct 21 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Q3 GDP slows to 7.3% [View news story]
    "China GDP GROWTH slows to 7.3." You dropped an important word there. By the way, if these numbers are correct, the situation is not bad at all. GDP growth is bound to slow down as GDP becomes larger. As Brlanger mentioned above, 7.3 growth for a country as huge as China is still impressive. If that number is accurate.
    Oct 21 04:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cirrus, Avago, Skyworks, RF Micro, NXP gain following Apple's earnings [View news story]
    Furthermore, INVN +1.2% AH. Synaptics strangely is unchanged. Perhaps investors have not yet realized that SYNA is an apple supplier. Great news for the Apple suppliers overall.

    Also, if you are looking for another stealth apple supplier other than SYNA (i.e., one the market does not yet recognize as an apple supplier), check out ASX. They package the major chips for the iphone.

    Long AVGO, SWKS, SYNA, INVN, ASX.
    Oct 20 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lower oil prices could provide $1T global stimulus [View news story]
    This is all good news, although the AAA data point is very misleading. Yes, people paid less for gasoline than on the 4th of july, but people buy much less gasoline than on the fourth of july. The fourth of july is one of the biggest if not the biggest driving day of the year.

    But lower gas prices will put more money in people's pockets and they should cause most other consumer goods prices to fall as well. Most consumer good prices depend on the price of fuel in one way or another. This is especially true for food.

    But the fed has to respond with looser policy, otherwise we will get the dreaded deflation and the associated deflationary business stagnation.
    Oct 18 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New streamers a boost in case for CMCSA-TWC merger approval [View news story]
    Not true. Sure they are forced to invest in servers but they are not really forced to invest in anything that will increase the overall speed of the internet. They can (and usually do) just add more data to the same pipes.

    Furthermore, the original statement was "Consumers are expected to have more broadband options outside of traditional cable/telco in the near future with streaming proliferating." In other words it suggested that consumers would have more internet access options. Broadband is a type of internet access. So the original statement was in fact referring to the last mile. And there is nothing to suggest that adding a streaming service will provide a consumer with more internet options.
    Oct 18 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New streamers a boost in case for CMCSA-TWC merger approval [View news story]
    That makes no sense. Proliferating streaming, does not give consumers more options as to internet access. This is a total non-sequitur.
    Oct 17 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple unveils iPad Air 2; thinner design, Touch ID, less glare [View news story]
    Does the air 2 support 802.11 ac wifi? Anyone know?
    Oct 16 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CAI International: Strong Long-Term Growth Potential [View article]
    CAP is a great idea at a forward P/E of 6.5 with growing revenues.

    One thing that you did not mention is that China's latest trade figures show that regardless of the much talked about uncertainty in the global economy, international trade is increasing.
    Oct 15 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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