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Philip Marlowe

Philip Marlowe
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  • Buffett, Munger talk succession and more in annual letters [View news story]
    This is very much recommended reading. In the middle he has an argument for stocks as opposed to bonds and makes a point that volatility should not be equated with risk.

    That is something for portfolio managers to mull over. Currently they tend to recommend portfolios of at least about 40% bonds and measure risk in terms of volatility.
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:04 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanderson Farms - The Good Times Continue, I Am Still Waiting To Pull The Trigger [View article]
    Value investor,

    Thanks for the excellent analysis. It is nice to see an article that slogs through all the relevant financial factors, instead of cherry picking statistics here and there.

    I do have a feeling you are being a little too conservative though. With your price target you may have to just keep writing articles about SAFM and never owning the stock.

    I realize that there is cyclicality but, as you mentioned, overall SAFM tends to go up over long periods of time. Furthermore, I believe we are in a rather prolonged period of good times for SAFM. These are mostly caused by the terrible drought we had a couple of years ago and by the fact that beef herds are so hard to increase.

    Now beef prices are very high just as the economy is improving and people are wanting to eat more meat. This is leading a lot of people to chicken. I think barring another drought or natural disaster, SAFM will do very well until the beef prices return to reasonable levels and this will be a long time.

    In the long run SAFM is a good bet. The rest of the world is demanding more protein, so there will be growth in chicken.
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanderson Farms - The Good Times Continue, I Am Still Waiting To Pull The Trigger [View article]
    Diligent investor,

    I think the short interest will provide plenty of fuel (to muddle up your metaphor) to push this stock higher. I have been in other stocks with high short interest and good performance and what happens is, if good performance persists, eventually the shorts just give up and cover and the stock shoots up. I have no idea when this will happen, but if SAFM's excellent performance persists it will happen.
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FCC begins convening for historic net neutrality vote [View news story]
    I am not getting it for free. I am paying the cable co for internet access and google is paying the cable co to put youtube on the internet and charging me in the form of ads.

    And no it is not a free market. A free market implies choice. What choice do I have? There is exactly one cable company serving my area.
    Feb 26, 2015. 12:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FCC begins convening for historic net neutrality vote [View news story]
    It is not going to look like a waste of time when your local cable company decides to charge you extra to watch internet videos and charge you a special fee to run your trading software.
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:47 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FCC begins convening for historic net neutrality vote [View news story]
    On your first point you may be right, but that might not hold true for the near future. The telecoms and cable cos know not to rock the boat when the FCC is ruled by democrats, but will probably decide to put the screws on their customers if they get a friendlier administration.
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avago +5.6% on earnings, guidance, acquisition; SWKS, QRVO also up [View news story]
    They beat on revenues as well. Note the non-gaap revenues which came in at 1.66 billion. They reported non-gaap revenues because GAAP purchase accounting rules prevented them from recognizing some IP licensing revenues this quarter.

    Furthermore, the forward guidance you cited ("FQ2 revenue to be down 3% to up 1% Q/Q") applies to non-gaap revenues as well, so you have to perform the math with the higher non-gaap Q1 revenue. This will result in a higher guided revenue for Q2 and an even better beat.

    Another excellent quarter from Avago. The Emulex acquisition was a little surprising, but I have not seen them make a bad acquisition yet. Avago management knows more about what is happening with the server and big data industries than you or I. Perhaps they see strong fibre channel growth in the future.
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: HP in talks to buy Aruba Networks [View news story]
    There is a saying that for a man with a hammer every problem looks like a nail. For Meg Whitman every problem looks like something to be solved with a strategic move, such as an acquisition or a divestment. Including the problems brought on by the mistaken strategic moves from the past.

    Hopefully this will be good for UBNT. With the help of HP's enlightened management UBNT should take over this sector even faster.
    Feb 25, 2015. 04:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JAKKS Pacific beats by $0.04, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Dammit Gomes why didn't you tell me this was one of your stocks, I would have never bought it.
    Feb 25, 2015. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Sector Activity Slowed in February [View news story]
    This survey covers the fifth district only, not the entire country. The fifth district was affected by snow and winter weather.

    You keep making this mistake, by the way. When there is a negative report for a particular fed. district you try to make it sound like the report covers the entire nation. If you keep repeating the same mistake, people will start thinking you are doing it on purpose.
    Feb 24, 2015. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanderson Farms misses by $0.12, beats on revenue [View news story]
    That 12 cent miss, when annualized puts the current running PE at 7.11. It is also more than 100% higher than last year's earnings.

    So results are still pretty damn excellent. The only thing keeping this stock from flying up is the amount of money the shorts are spending to keep it down.
    Feb 24, 2015. 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Go, Go, Avago [View article]
    No. They only sold a business that makes merchant SSD controllers to seagate. The enterprise storage business remains with Avago.
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FreightCar America misses by $0.07, beats on revenue [View news story]
    It is also important to note that their backlog continues to rise. Their current backlog is at 1.3 billion which is more than a year and a half of production. Of course saying it is an year and a half of production is drastically understating it. It is an year and a half of production if they get zero new orders. But currently they are getting more new orders than they can produce, so the backlog will just keep increasing.

    Furthermore their realized prices seem to be increasing. They made only 6 more cars than the previous quarter and yet collected 22 million more revenues. This means they are selling each car for significantly more than they did last quarter.

    The earnings miss was probably due to costs associated with the new production line they built. Once they start that production line they will hopefully start eating into the backlog and increase revenues and profits significantly.

    Very good quarter for RAIL.
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • R&D spend by U.S. firms continues decline [View news story]
    That won't work. RD is an investment for the future like stock buybacks. If interest rates go up, RD will decrease just like stock buybacks as it would be come less competitive as compared to loaning money out or keeping it in a bank.
    Feb 15, 2015. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xplore Technologies reports FQ3 results [View news story]
    Excellent results from xplr. If they continue with these earnings this is a 6 forward pe stock. Unfortunately they provide no guidance but it looks like their business is doing great. They actually said that they were not able to fill all the orders from last quarter.
    Feb 12, 2015. 07:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment