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  • Prospect continues Friday's slide  [View news story]

    To elicit such a response from you regarding out loud thinking smacks of fear. Festering rancid fear my fine friend. It is you who lie in bed at night staring up at the ceiling, ruminating about your risky investments and if you truly have the stomach. If you were truly comfortable with your investment you would not be on this board looking for comfort from other postings at the same time being unable to let a post scroll by that might shatter your head in the sand world.

    Yes I have fear. It keeps me alive. It keeps me from sky diving, running with the bulls, blindly loosing money in investments, scaling Mt Everest, gambling in the stock market, and doing all kinds of other scary stupid stuff for no material reason or gain.

    If you don't want to analyze your investments from every angle you are either a cheerleader or fearful of discovering something about yourself.

    As for me, I am a thinker. I want to think about every angle. I have to know where I've been, where I am, and where I'm going in every aspect of my life.

    Since we are on the subject. I don't normally post on forums but I always try to make people think and think some more. Just because its paying 13% doesn't mean someone should be an inert shareholder.

    Enough with the cheerleading.
    Jun 17, 2014. 01:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Can't Catch A Break  [View article]
    Management does not underwrite these loans. Forensic accountants underwrite the loans. Management makes its decision based on the accountant's report.

    I can tell you from experience, if a borrower wants to borrow money bad enough, especially a service company, there us no way a forensic accountant will pick up on it until many months down the line.

    It us always best to use independent people that are randomly chosen from a pool of auditors.

    I am not suggesting this borrower in any way did anything unscrupulous. I am writing in generalities. When books get cooked it is often factions of vested management that are trying a hail mary to stay alive.
    Jun 17, 2014. 12:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect continues Friday's slide  [View news story]
    I have to wonder what there circumstances surrounding the underwriting of this loan. The same methodology must be used company wide. One has to wonder if there are other loans that slipped under their radar.

    Although it is "only 1 out of 135 loans" , it was a very small loan who's loss is easily absorbed. Let us not ignore the damage that could be inflicted should one of the handful of loans go bad that make of the majority of the portfolio in dollar terms.
    Jun 16, 2014. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Correction Of 2014? Don't Drink The Kool-Aid  [View article]
    Dont care what the P/E is. No more ZIRP and all risky investments go lower. This is the difference between then and now.How much of SP500 is financials making their bread and butter off of ZIRP?
    Jun 11, 2014. 02:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gary Kain Is The Warren Buffett Of Mortgages  [View article]
    Maybe a MORT. If he is using proceeds from sales of MBS the loans have to be paid off I would imagine as the MBS are the collateral. So I would assume all he can use is any remaining equity once loans are paid off so no leverage involved in buying others common stock.
    Question is... is he buying others stock with cash or margin?
    Feb 9, 2014. 09:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gary Kain Is The Warren Buffett Of Mortgages  [View article]
    Buffet buys companies that don't compete with themselves and are representative of many different industries. When Kain starts buying insurance companies and such only then can you compare AGNC and Berkshire.

    Kain should have bought more of his own stock at discount to BV but that would reduce management fees.

    Long AGNC
    Feb 9, 2014. 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS Mortgage REIT ETP Yielding 27%  [View article]
    How do you choose what expiration date to use?

    When i look at puts it seems that having a put on at all times brings yield down to single digit.

    What am i missing?
    Sep 19, 2013. 04:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Dividend Drops Again In September But It's Now Yielding 32% On A Monthly Compounded Basis  [View article]
    Good analysis but you fail to take into account possible financing issues from the lenders of the mreits financing this stuff. Anything from margin calls to lower loan limits on new business.
    Sep 4, 2013. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Declares Monthly Dividend, The First Reflecting Recent mREIT Cuts In The New Interest Rate Environment  [View article]
    Anyone concerned that MORL is not an ETF but an ETN, unsecured unsubordinated date of UBS?
    Jul 31, 2013. 03:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panicky selling grips the mortgage REITs (REM -3.5%) as Treasury yields soar following the payroll report. American Capital (AGNC -6.9%), (MTGE -5%), Annaly (NLY -6.9%) Chimera (CIM -4.9%), Armour (ARR -3.9%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), CYS Investments (CYS -3%). CYS' Kevin Grant was public a month ago about being a happy buyer as yields rose - a bit early on that call.  [View news story]
    Actually, it was Sir John Templeton that coined this phrase.

    Just sayin'
    Jul 5, 2013. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confusion From The Fed Has Driven These mREITs Into Bargain Territory  [View article]
    I am no expert and have limited knowledge of how this stuff works but I will take a swing at it. They probably could figure out how to hold to maturity however..

    repo rates are adjustable so cost to carry could end up being more than coupon?

    margin calls from repo man?

    risk from duration could chop BV to shreds if holding for 30-years. who knows where rates could be 5, 10, 20, 30 years from now?

    I think these companies prefer to take there pain short turn and look like heros most of time than to spread smaller pain out over 30-years.
    Jun 24, 2013. 08:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.2%) estimates a similar decline in book value through June 7 as that experienced in Q1 (8.6%), putting June 7 book value at $26.44. At the current price, the stock is trading at about a 7% discount to book. The numbers were disclosed in slides prepared for the company's presentation at the Morgan Stanley conference at 3:35 ET this afternoon.  [View news story]
    Ever been through an interest rate increase cycle? I have been through many over the past 35-years of investing. Many of the cycles lasted a number of years and that was without the current high levels of manipulation by the Fed. The stabilization of BV could take years as well. Probably going to feel like being waterboarded. I am here for the dividend so will bite down hard and try to overcome my urges to sell my positions.
    Jun 23, 2013. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A High-Yield, Low-Payout Dividend Growth Model Portfolio For 2013  [View article]
    I am new to this stuff but shouldn't the reason why a company has a low payout ratio be taken into account?
    Mar 8, 2013. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Fiscal Cliff Fix Fails NLY And AGNC  [View article]
    Your are correct. The stocks will levitate to book value, which will be much lower after the lack of demand from the Fed forces the value of the existing MBS's the mReits own way down.
    Jan 6, 2013. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs In 2013 - Friend Or Foe To Dividend Payouts?  [View article]
    i am new to mReits. Don't own any but am watching. My simple mind see's the following: Fed's QE causes asset value of mREIT's to rise which causes book value to rise which causes share price to rise, but squeezes margin. Fed tightens... and asset values drop, book values drop and share prices drop. Will there be enough expansion in margins to offset the drop in book value, and how long will it take for expansion in margins to offset the immediate drop in book value. It seems to me the mREITS are eating their left foot for dinner.
    Jan 3, 2013. 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment