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WinGreen

WinGreen
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  • Measuring The Success Of Your Dividend Portfolio [View article]
    Neurology,
    Being a dividend growth investor and a "total return" investor are NOT mutually exclusive! As an investor who has always looked at growing dividends as one "hallmark" of a potentially good investment, you can still choose good stocks with relatively "low" dividends, such as Visa, MasterCard, or Disney. The vast majority of the stocks I have bought over the years have tended to be DG stocks, however there are a few that I have bought that do NOT pay dividends at all- BRK.B for example, or AAPL in early March of 2009. AAPL is now paying me a solid dividend, but when we bought it it was more of a "turnaround" situation that appeared grossly undervalued. The stocks you mention are probably going to be good DG stocks, they are just relatively "early" in their DG life cycle, and do not have the long history of raising dividends. They also are relatively "over- valued" now, thus their dividend yields are low. Being a DG investor and a total return investor can be combined into one strategy.

    Many older investors naturally gravitate towards DG investing because of the predictability and stability of dividends, as ooposed to relying too much on capital gains which can be very "fickle". I myself have been investing since the early 70's, and it is interesting that the majority of my "best" investments over the years started out as solid relatively low yielding DG stocks, that have now matured into more traditional DG stocks (JNJ, CL, MSFT, BLK, MRK, AMGN, ABT/ ABBV, XOM, GE, INT, KO, LOW, MMM, O, PG, RDS.A, T, UL, WMT, etc.). In addition, as we have gotten older, we have added some of the higher yielding (but lower dividend growth) stocks such as DUK, VZ, SO, SCG, etc. You can combine the strategies, especially at your young age, and do quite well over the long run.
    Jul 5, 2015. 11:53 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scanning The SA Family For Alpha: Rosenose [View article]
    Robyn,
    I agree with all your statements, with the exception of "disclosure" of their position in an investment (or not). I believe it is much better for an author to disclose their positions, or their intent to open a position, in any stock they are discussing. In fact, that is one of the things I look for in an article, if they DO NOT have a position, why should I even consider it?

    Obviously, if someone is prohibited from disclosing this information, that is a different story. But otherwise, they should put their money where their mouth is.
    Jul 3, 2015. 09:16 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • W.P. Carey: A Classic Blue Chip REIT [View article]
    ProfEd,
    All REITs are being sold off due to fears of higher interest rates. Higher rates also can "hurt" REITs as borrowing costs will rise, which slows growth. But WPC is one of the "best of breed" REITs out there, IMHO. Long WPC, and hoping to add more!
    Jun 30, 2015. 07:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T adds Richard Fisher to board [View news story]
    Talk about "golden parachutes"! Leaves his government job, gets appointed to two different corporate boards immediately, where he'll travel to their meetings 4 times/ year (on the shareholders dime), vote "yes" on whatever the company execs say, and get paid ~ 200K per company to do this "hard work". Not to mention the stock options that he will have to work "so hard" to get awarded.
    Bottom line is that executive/ board member pay has gone BEYOND THE OUTRAGEOUS point!
    Jun 26, 2015. 11:03 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Reallocation: Sell CLR And Purchase XOM [View article]
    I also agree with several other commenters, smart move. XOM is definitely going to be a "smoother" ride, especially when you combine the dividend to your return. You really have fairly limited "downside" risk with XOM now. One thing rarely discussed here on SA is that XOM generates a LOT of profits from the refining/ processing side of the oil/ gas business. That is why they surprised Wall Street with their recent quarterly earnings beat. Because they are able to now purchase "cheap" crude from other suppliers, they can turn around and process it into all sorts of other products, and sell with significant profits. You may give up some potential "upside" capital gains, but definitely ensure higher likelihood of a decent total return over next 10+ years.
    Disclosure:Long XOM, it is the single largest holding we have.
    Jun 22, 2015. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Managing REIT Risk By Evaluating Credit Ratings [View article]
    Brad,
    Another great article. I also believe the true "benefits" of sticking with high quality REITs will become evident during the next financial downturn (or crisis), as opposed to the current market environment. Right now, as the markets generally trend slowly upward, "the rising tide lifts all boats". However, when the going gets tough and stormy, that is really when we'll see which REIT's are truly seaworthy versus which REIT's will sink in the first rough weather. I also agree with Bob Wells above, it may be real interesting to compare the perfomance (as well as dividend cuts) of the "high quality" or investment grade rated REITs to the "lower quality"/ below investment grade rating REITs during the finacial crisis. That is when the benefits of sticking with SWAN REITs will shine, as I "found out" with the financials during 2007-2009. My positions in BAC, Wachovia, and C did poorly, compared to WFC and USB, which are two SWAN banks I now hold.
    Jun 1, 2015. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unveiling A Pivotal Plan For This Predictable Outlier [View article]
    Great writeup, as usual! Thanks! Have owned WPC since REIT conversion in 2012, great long term holding. Have it in my ROTH IRA, reinvesting dividends so that when I retire, will be able to get quarterly dividends tax free. WPC has shown all the attributes of a SWAN investment, comaparble to "O" or other top tier REITS. Definitely belongs on the "short list" of well run REITS to buy/ hold for the long run. My suspicion is the recent drop in price is people are "worried" about REITS in the face of coming interest rate increases (assuming they really come). I only wish I could put more in my ROTH to buy more!
    May 29, 2015. 07:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WP Glimcher's Honeymoon Turned Into A Bad Dream [View article]
    Brad,
    Great writeup as usual. However, this looks too "iffy" (in my humble opinion), and I question how they will hold up during the next inevitable downturn. Cash flow starts drying up, first thing to go will be that "juicy dividend". This is definitely not a wide or narrow moat company, so I'll just pass. Part of "winning" in investing is to avoid the real "losers", and I've got a feeling this one looks sort of like some of my past "losers"- BAC before the finacial crisis, etc.
    May 28, 2015. 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 26 Income Securities For A Well-Rounded Asset Allocation [View article]
    I was "OK" with essentially all of your recommendations until I hit the part about the two bonds. Both are very long maturities- years 2052 and 2073- ie 37 and 58 years from now. Way too long, and IMHO are not good fixed income holdings for the average investor. Maybe for a life insurance company trying to meet obligations due those years, but way too much interets rate risk/ duration risk for the average investor!
    May 27, 2015. 11:06 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Bancorp Is In Warren Buffett's Portfolio [View article]
    Tim, another great article. After getting "burned" during the 2007-2009 period with poor quality banks (BAC, C, Wachovia), I decided in the future I would buy ONLY the best of breed financials. Bought WFC, USB, and HSBC, all three dif NOT need government "bailouts", although WFC and USB were required to take government help as part of TARP. These 3 banks are probably "lifetime" holds.
    May 23, 2015. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bold Prediction: JPMorgan's Dividend Will Double Within 6 Years [View article]
    Tim,
    As usual, a very good article! One thing that "worries" me about JPM is their large "black box" of trading revenues. These can quickly go "bad" in a hurry, as evidenced by the "London Whale" incident. That, or an even larger trade that goes bad, could completely destroy the possibility of dividend raises that you think are coming. One thing I learned in the 2007-2009 period was to "own the best" dividend growth stocks. That was after owning several "decent" financials- BAC, Citigroup, Wachovia, etc., that wound up self destructing and "blowing up" in my face.
    Hence, I have tended to invest with the more conservative banks, such as Wells Fargo (WFC) & US Bank (USB). They derive very little income from trading and other more risky endeavors. Only down side is that WFC and USB are pretty fully valued now. If one wants to own JPM, and it is probably a "reasonably good" dividend growth candidate, just be aware of the risks of their trading operations. Those risks are nearly impossible to uncover, as many of their strategies are very complex and difficult to fully quantify.
    May 23, 2015. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Hold Your Breath With J.C. Penney [View article]
    Sort of like catching a falling chainsaw, if you pull it off, you think you're really smart, but if your calculation is wrong, it can be very UGLY!
    I think I'll just stick with strong wide moat companies that pay rising dividends, and buy them when their temporarily selling off.
    May 20, 2015. 07:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA clears Janssen's long-acting anti-psychotic drug [View news story]
    As a psychiatrist, this will be a great addition to our treatment otions, as medication compliance is a real problem for many with shizophrenia.
    May 19, 2015. 11:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon scoops up AOL for $4.4B [View news story]
    I too question why VZ is "wasting" money on AOL. Makes me wonder if i should re-evaluate VZ as one of my holdings. Reminds of what Peter Lynch used to say- is Verizon engaging in "deworsification"???
    May 12, 2015. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Low Dividend Yield, High Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
    Curious why you want payout ratio "above" 20%? I would be interested in ANY stock with a payout ratio less than 20%, dividend of say 1-2%, and a history of raising dividends every year for 25+ years. That's real dividend growth!
    May 8, 2015. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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