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  • Is The 4% Rule Becoming The 2% Rule? [View article]
    Pompano Frog,
    I think in some ways we are both saying similar things! I also feel that the CAPE P/E (Schiller P/E) can "throw people off", when looked at as a determinant of the markets overall "value". It can be artificially high (or low), if the markets P/E has been very high (or low) recently. In 2005-2007, the market P/E was WAY above average, and that still "distorts" the Schiller CAPE currently. The current P/E is definitely NOT "cheap", but appears to be closer to the long term averages, although still mayber (slightly) elevated above the long term averages.

    I also worry about the long term "effects" of all the monetary stimulus that our FED, as well as other governmental central banks, have been providing. We really do NOT know the longer term effects of all this FLUSH of cash they have been injecting into the markets. It sort of reminds me of EVERYONE smoking cigarettes in the 40's, 50's, and early 60's, before we realized the downsides to smoking (I am a physician). What sort of "economic health" issues are we going to suffer, 5-10 years form now, with all this cash "sloshing around". Global money supply is DEFINITELY on an uptrend, and a steep one at that.

    All I know is that I can ONLY control what I do as an investor, and that is to rationally invest for the long term, save as much as I can, and plan on trying to have a boadly diversified portfolio, and even holding some bonds, although it hurts right now. I will also plan to be "conservative" in my portfolio withdrawals, and shoot (ideally) to have my portfolio continue to grow EVEN in full retirement. (I am "semi- retired" now).
    Oct 9, 2015. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In CorEnergy's Critical Assets, Not So Concerned With Tenant Risk [View article]
    I was a little "surprisd" to see you list HASI as the "bookend", on the safest side of the net lease spectrum. I would have thought you'd list O ast the safest, since it has been out there SO LONG, with solid growth/ stable rising dividends, etc. I agree that HASCI is a very "intriguing" company, and does appear to be an interesting option, but "safer"than Realty Income?
    Oct 8, 2015. 07:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The 4% Rule Becoming The 2% Rule? [View article]
    Actually, David is using a 60% equity/ 40% Fixed Income portfolio as the "model portfolio", NOT 40/60 as you say.

    You do have some valid points about the "wisdom" of holding equities when the overall equity market has been over- valued for many years (according to Schiller P/E10). However, David has a good "rebuttal" to the underlying study in that he says that the current P/E 10 is artificially elevated now, due to the EXTREMELY high vauations from 2005-2007, and that if you use "current P/E", as opposed to P/E10, the market is closer to fairly valued.

    Overall, I think this is a VERY thought provoking article/ discussion about portfolio planning for retirement, and demonstrates the importance of planning "conservatively" in view of low rates, relatively fully valued equity markets, AND our increasing life spans! Hence, I will plan to live ONLY on income, and not touch principal, and actually will try to reinvest some of that income during the first 10-20 years retirement "to be safe". I DO NOT want to be clipping coupons/ collecting aluminum cans at age 90!
    Oct 8, 2015. 07:20 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA clears Merck's Keytruda for second-line treatment of lung cancer [View news story]
    Great News! Just added to my MRK position last week, may buy more if can scrape up a little additional "pocket change". Still undervalued, IMHO.
    Oct 2, 2015. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA action date today for Merck's Keytruda for new indication of second-line treatment of lung cancer [View news story]
    I agree with some othe other comments (Hammer34, joezapp, etc.). Keytruda is making a difference in the ocolcogy arena, and I am seeing that as an MD. Merck has been basically treading water for several years, but now some of their newer drugs are setting them up for future growth. Have held MRK for 20+ years, but just added to my position last week.
    Oct 2, 2015. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CatchMark Timber Trust Is Poised To Profit [View article]
    As a long term timberland owner/ investor, this is an interesting story. Timber prices have been low for many years, and there is a "surplus" of wood being held "on the stump" due to the very low prices over the past 10+ years or so (some experts refer to this as a "wall of wood" waiting to come to market). This won't hurt pulpwood prices too badly, as you really have to cut pulpwood within a few years or you hurt the overall growth potential of the stand. But chip and saw/ sawtimber prices are probably going to remain low until we have a VERY strong housing market for several straight years. It will take that long to "soak up" the wood that is being held on the stump, waiting for prices to recover. This is a VERY long term holding, so don't exprect this to be the next AAPL, AMZN, or other stock that "rockets" up in price!
    Sep 30, 2015. 08:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Dividend Machine Failures? [View article]
    A lot of the companies in your portfolio are relatively cyclical in nature, and it may be worthwhile to add some more consumer staples, pharmaceuticals, and other "steady" dividend growers. If we do fall backwards into a recession, they may provide a little more "defensive" positions. Many of the more "stable" DG stocks have been too expensive for several years, but have also come down in price- WMT, PG, AMGN, MRK, etc. Maybe those need to be added to the list?
    You also have a fair amount in oil/gas, so that "tilt" has definitely hurt the portfolio this year. Join the club, I'm also heavy in oil/ gas and have seen my portfolio take it on the chin this year. Long term, they (XOM, CVX, etc.) are probably good "buys" right now, as long as you are patient.
    Sep 27, 2015. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solving The Alpha For O [View article]
    Another GREAT article, Brad! I always learn from your articles and have held O for many years now (and "d_mn" glad I have!). The calulations using WACC do appear to help compare different triple net lease REITS, and sort them out according to their underlying financial strength. I would be curious to see a comparison of O and WPC (W P Carey), as they both seem to have durable competitive advantages.

    I have been trying to sort out which REITs are the "strongest of the strong", and so far have settled on "O", "WPC", and "HCP" as three that I want to hold for the long term- 20 plus years.
    Sep 24, 2015. 09:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vodafone: Enjoy The Dividend While Waiting [View article]
    I think Veritas1010 raises some valid points. Vodafone has traditionally overpaid for aquisitions, and often will buy relatively smaller companies in many different markets. They generally are not the dominant player in most of their markets, and therefore cannot be the "dominant" player. Will continue to hold for now, but monitor closely.
    Sep 17, 2015. 08:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nowhere To Hide... [View article]
    I agree with s-belton 12, very few investors are able to time things so well, jumping in and out of the markets. Most (in fact nearly all) will underperform the indexes. So what, I'm down a few percent! This has been a "healthy/ much needed" market correction. Just provides me more "juicy strong dividend payors" on sale.
    Sep 15, 2015. 08:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart suppliers up in arms over new terms [View news story]
    I agree, Redhat63! This is just a business trying to lower their expenses.
    Sep 11, 2015. 08:47 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Remember That Ham Sandwich Quote? [View article]
    Maybe we should vote "NO" next year on the PG proxy in regards to pay packages for the key executives? That is what I am going to do! Frustrating! PG is now a "HOLD" as far as I am concerned, without getting it's overall revenue increasing it cannot continue to raise it's dividend.
    Aug 31, 2015. 08:23 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Guess At The Second Most Recognizable Phrase In The World... [View article]
    Great "bull" case for Coke! When I read the previous article, I was thinking "what a short term view" as he was trying to make his case that KO has lost their wide moat.
    I agree with what some of the other posters have said, buying KO as an investment when it is "down" has ALWAYS been a good long term move. I've owned KO for many years (15+), and it will "languish" in a certain price range for several years, then have a spurt of growth. All along, if you are just patient, you collect those dividends. GREAT long term buy and hold company, and I suspect my children will inherit my KO shares, which are now worth well over 100K. Not bad of a less than 10K investment. KO is one of those that you buy and hold FOREVER!
    Aug 16, 2015. 10:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVS puts off negotiating price of new cholesterol fighter until second player is approved [View news story]
    The "almighty dollar" is clearly what is driving this. CVS wants to secure the highest discount by playing the two drugs against each other. They then pocket the cost savings, and turn around and charge you (the consumer) a higher price.
    Aug 10, 2015. 12:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Dividend Growth Stocks To Buy Today For Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 1 [View article]
    You only lose money if you hit the "SELL" button!!! I hold many of these stocks (JNJ, WMT, CSCO, PG, etc.) and continued to accumulate during the "great recession". In fact, I squeezed every dollar I could find to load up on stocks in 2008/ 2009, and it paid off big time. Portfolio now approaching 5M. If you buy "solid financially strong companies" that pay rising dividends during times of economic pain/ recession, you will grow wealth long term. This has been demonstrated time after time in the past. You need to understand that temporary sell offs, even over several years, are your FRIEND in that they offer you the opportunity to load up on high quality dividend champions at "on sale" prices.
    Aug 8, 2015. 11:40 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment