Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View WinGreen's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • For Equity Income Investors, Southern Company Has The Best WACC Of Its Peers [View article]
    Interesting article! And a very good way to compare different utilities- WACC and ROIC. From this standpoint, SO looks like a good long term utility. Will be interesting to see how utilities hold up when the FED starts raising interest rates.
    Disclosure: long SO, DUK, SCG.
    Oct 5 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon Is The Top Income Stock In The Diversified Telecom Industry [View article]
    In my view, it's best to own BOTH VZ and T. They both have a duopoly for the American telecom market, and effectively are slowly taking market share from the cable companies. Granted, the other "upstarts" such as T mobile, etc., have brought the cell phone rates down, but everywhere I go people are talking on their phones. Meanwhile, I just sit back and collect those dividends!
    Sep 24 11:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What We Think Of Southern Company [View article]
    I'm sorry but this is really just a sales pitch for your service. Waste of time!
    Sep 24 11:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look At These Juicy Yields - Are They Really Appropriate For Your Retirement Portfolios? [View article]
    Chuck, another great article! It has been interesting to read all the comments, and how so many people latched on to different parts of the article to "support" their style of investing. The real idea is people should always "question" their assumptions and biases, that is how one grows as an investor!

    IMHO, investors need to follow the approach to "yield" as you say and look "under the hood". Some yields, especially the more " blue chip" DG stocks like PG, JNJ, WMT, SO, etc., are very reliable, raised every year, and in fact can appear very "boring" to those who like the mortgage REIT's, BDC's, and MLP's. These are primarily what I have always invested in, they have worked extremely well, and I have gotten "rich slowly". Now, at age 55, I can fully retire if I want to and just live off the dividends, never touch principal! A great feeling!

    IMHO, the higher yield stuff like mortgage REITS, BDC's, and MLP's "might" have a place in a retirees portfolio, but in relatively small allocations. Their payments are too volatile and dependent on too many external factors (interest rate spreads, short versus long rates, direction of interest rates, etc.). And one needs to understand the various risks associated with them, and look at this slice of their allocation as part of the "riskier" portion of their asset allocation. I personally would NOT sleep well at night having all of my portfolio in them. Not criticizing those that do, just not for me. And I'm perfectly happy with the more "boring and staid" stuff that has allowed me to build up a 3+ million nest egg.
    Sep 12 12:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • George Soros Is Betting Against The Market And Why Investors Should Take Notice [View article]
    Pretty much worthless news. There is always going to be some "big investor" somewhere who gets nervous, sells a big position, hedges to the downside, or something. Then, if we get a market break at that time, everyone thinks they are a "genius". Pure luck, someone like Soros may be out of all those positions by now. For all we know, he may be shorting gold now, since it continues to drop.

    Pick your asset allocation, and stick with it. Most shorts eventually get their head handed to them on a platter. Now if Buffett were selling out his positions, that may be a different story! But then the market would already be down 10-20% if that news broke.
    Sep 2 11:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Surprising New Portfolio Diversifier [View article]
    Interesting divergence between utilities and the broader market, as well as an interesting article. IMHO, it probably is because people still want income (dividends) and are afraid to commit money to true bonds out of fear of rising rates, and also the fact that utilities are relatively "insulated" from broader geopolitical concerns (Ukraine/ Russia situation, Gaza strip fighting, etc.). The real question is whether this will hold up longer term, over the next 3-5-10 year period, which I doubt personally. I suspect it is more of a unique situation associated with a relatively high (and aged) market, combined with extraordinarily low bond yields due to continued Federal Reserve actions. Once the bond market returns to more "normal" rate influences, utilities and there correlation with the S & P will probably revert to a more normal level of correlation.
    Aug 8 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Dividend Champions To Buy Today [View article]
    Another great article, and thanks (again) for the research. I too have been waiting for the "big correction" for several years, and (alas) it has not come. But it will, sooner or later. Your suggestions here definitely provide some interesting options for people looking to invest, however overall the market is definitely over valued (at least IMHO!)

    One thought I had as I read the various comments, most brokerages now give investors the option to reinvest dividends or take them in cash. What I am doing is reinvesting ONLY in the stocks that appear to be below their intrinsic value. If a stock rises and goes above their intrinsic value, I will "turn off" the reinvesting feature on that specific position, and take the dividends in cash. Interestingly, right now ALL of my positions are being taken in cash. Part of this is that I am in "pre retirement" phase, working just beacause I want to, and my portfolio is now very large (> 5 Million). So I am really just building it out for my heirs, as I have more than enough for me and the "misses" to live off of.

    Choosing to reinvest (or take cash depending on the current valuation) is a way to further build your portfolio. This is a way to invest in the "market of stocks", as opposed to the "stock market". Even though the overall stock market is overvalued, there are still "pockets of opportunity" out there. I throw this out there for the investors still in the accumulation stage. One option I don't hold, but am still looking at, is Target. If I comes down just a little, I may be a buyer.

    As someone who has been investing since 1972 (early teens), and also someone who rarely comments but reads voraciously, I have seen investing "fads" come and go. For those of you out there still building your portfolio, learn the concepts of "Dividend Growth Investing" and also learn to stay invested in the market no matter what! When the (inevitable) next bear market comes, the one way to undo all the hard work is to panic and sell great companies, just because the market has ( usually temporarily) gone insane. Read about "Mr. Market" in Ben Gahams book, and remember "that" analogy when the inevitable bear starts growling. That is when you can really purchase some great companies on sale. Also, you want to make sure that you are not the one that is hitting the panic button and unloading great companies.

    Again, thanks!
    Jul 26 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Likes Verizon's 4.2% Yield And Market-Dominating Wireless Business [View article]
    If you're like me, it really is a "toss up" whether VZ is a "better" long term dividend growth stock than AT&T, or vice versa. So I hold both, VZ in my account and T in my wife's account. Both pay very good dividends, and both have raised their dividends regularly.
    However, they both have had dividend growth rates growing at just above the inflation rate, and thus you need to be aware of that. They also require constant re- investment in their networks to maintain their advantages, and thus I do not see their dividend growth increasing much above their current rates. Therefore, they don't offer a lot as far as "rapid" dividend growth, and really serve as more of high yield slow growers, almost like a utility.
    Jul 25 09:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Wells Fargo Better Than Chase For Your Portfolio? [View article]
    One thing that worries me about JPM is that it is more dependent on investment banking/ M and A activity than WFC. JPM is at more "at risk" of some major blowup, such as the "London whale", than WFC. Wells Fargo makes much more of their money with basic banking, mortgages, corporate loans, etc. my vote is to continue holding WFC, though I wouldn't add it at these prices. It is a firm "hold" right now.
    Jul 18 07:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Is Only Expensive If You Can't Think 5 Years Ahead [View article]
    And Tim, in no way, shape, or form do I mean to "criticize" your decision to buy now. Most likely, Visa (and MasterCard) will be worth more, maybe a lot more, in 20-30 years than they are now. But in my book, there are significant "risks" to their "network effect" that are still to be fully worked out,and yet they are priced for growth "to the moon". At this stage in life (age 56) and now working partime (for fun, don't need to work), I just feel they are still for "high risk" capital. Even though I am now mainly investing for the next generation (my heirs), I feel that their current values are too expensive,and their downside is at least equal to the upside (at these levels). Price is what you pay, value is the price you get it at. Not sure the value is there.
    Jul 13 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Is Only Expensive If You Can't Think 5 Years Ahead [View article]
    Enjoy reading your articles, and as usual you make a good case for Visa as an investment. However, a couple of things do "concern" me here.

    Yes, Visa (as well as MasterCard) are growing like crazy, and one can make a case that both could be substantially higher in 5-10 years. They also are both growing their (relatively small) dividends at high rates, so from a DG perspective one can make a good investment case for them, especially with a longer holding period. However, a couple of things give me pause (for both) at these high price levels.

    One, they are both priced as if this growth is a "sure thing", so one needs to know if they do NOT achieve these growth levels, "look out below". They will come down hard!

    Secondly, What you said (in response to Buy and Hold) gives me pause. I do agree that one way to get the occasional "home run" is to identify rapidly growing stocks at that level where they are starting to "blast off". That is one way to really compound your wealth. I did that with Apple back in the great recession, picked it up at $83 share. But in many ways it was also luck, not great investment "skill". I gambled a little money on several high growers, and Apple paid off. That position is worth >$100K now, not bad for a $12K investment! But, what one needs to realize is this is a very calculated risk, and I would put this up there with the other more "risky" bets one takes while investing over a lifetime. Some pay off, others will NOT! And I say that just as one who has made a lot of money (investment portfolio > five million now) over 40+ years of investing/ saving, and has had BOTH situations occur many times over. Long term, the best investments for me are the "singles and occasional doubles", such as buying a dividend aristocrat when it is temporarilly down (JNJ, ABT, WMT, T, VZ, KO, XOM, etc. over the years at MUCH lower prices). Not the overpriced Visa or MasterCard when the are selling at Forward PE's of > 21. Now, are they good stocks, YES!!! But maybe closer to under $190 for Visa, under $60 for MasterCard. Then they become more interesting to me, and the risk benefit ratio makes more sense.

    Interestingly, I just compared V, MA, AXP, DFS and the one that (at least to me) looks "most promising" among the four right now is actually Discover! It is a smaller credit card/ debit card player compared to the other three, but it appears to be broadening it's revenue streams (consumer loans, student loans, etc.), and also a very smart capital allocator. The credit card companies are an oligarchy, and in ten years we will probably still only have a few "majors"- Visa, MasterCard, American Express, and I would add Discover. Difference is that Discover has a forward P/E of only about 11, also buying back stock like crazy, dividend of 1.34%, and good dividend growth. Between the four, I would actually consider DFS if I were investing right now.

    However, all four are now on my "watch list", and I'll wait to buy after a good "correction", then I may pick up 2- 3 of them on the cheap. There are PLENTY of stocks you will see in the future, that in hindsight were "incredible buys". That's part of the wisdom you will gain as you review your future "wins" and "losses". First rule of thumb- MINIMIZE your losses, be aware of the downside risks! Right now, I see at least as much downside risk as upside risk, so I'll just wait for Mr. Market to go on his horrible depressive side and offer them to me at a bargain, as Ben Graham would be saying now.
    Jul 13 01:23 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo & Company: A Worthwhile Investment [View article]
    Best large cap bank out there. Much less risk compared to JPM, which would be a good stock to consider except for the "unknowns" associated with their investment banking, derivatives, etc. WFC and USB are the only two US banks I own now, as there operations, lending, profitability, etc. just beat all the others. If they disappoint with earnings/ revenue, may drop enough to add some more!
    Jul 10 11:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weyerhaeuser's Exchange Offer (WRECO/TRI Pointe): Reasons Not To Tender [View article]
    Sticking with WY, should be a great long term holding, now even better getting rid of some less efficient businesses.
    Jun 25 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Bear About To Maul The Bull? Here's How We're Investing [View article]
    Buy and Hold,
    Being somewhat similar to you, I also have many stocks which we bought many years ago, and still hold. Fortunately, I have done fairly well and we now have a large DGI portfolio approaching 4 million in size. When I retire, I anticipate living off the dividends w/o ever touching any principle. I still hold many of the stocks I purchased beginning in the early 1970's (XOM, JNJ, ABT, etc.).

    However, I find it hard to believe you have not sold at least one stock. And I don't say that in a mean spirited way, I'm just saying you have been very successful (maybe even lucky!) as a DGI to have avoided picking at least one bad stock. As for myself, there have been some stocks that I purchased that I later sold, often due to a change in the companies fortunes, business plan, direction of their industry, etc. For example, I held Bank of America (BAC) for many years, and made some good money off it. However, their poor planning/ execution of their business plans, combined with the dramatic dividend cut during the financial crisis, led me to sell it in 2009, after suffering huge losses. Similar situation for EXC, WM, and several other "mistakes" I made along the way.

    I think the "average" investor will have at least a few purchases that (for whatever reason) will later turn out to have been "dogs", and having a good set of "sell" criteria are also important. My personal criteria include any "major" change in the business direction/ plan that affects my long term view of the company, as well as a dividend cut. I am willing to hold a company if it doesn't raise it's dividend, but it will go on "probationary" status. If you have been successful in avoiding picking a "dog", GREAT! But for the average investor, plan on making a few "mistakes" along the way, have some good criteria for selling, and above all try to learn from our mistakes. They can be "painful" learning experiences, but we are doomed to repeat them if we do not learn from them.
    Jun 19 10:50 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon: One Of The Best Picks In The Sector [View article]
    I agree w/ mjb0909 above, just own both! They both have good networks, and trounce any of the other providers. Have had Verizon wireless for years, overall have been very happy with it. Recently added AT&T Uverse, and it is also an excellent system, very reasonably priced. So we own both stocks, I own VZ, wife owns T. Collecting good (and slowly rising) dividends for both.
    Jun 14 12:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment