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  • Wal-Mart releases Cyber Monday info [View news story]
    I doubt it, more like WMT at $70. But we shall see!
    Dec 1, 2015. 07:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Normalization [View article]
    If you smooth the lines out over a longer term, it does appear as if we are mean reverting to a slower growth trajectory. Hopefully this will be accompanied by a less "boom and bust" type cyclicality that we suffered through at times in the latter 1900's- for example in 1974-75, 1987, 1991, 2000-2002, 2008-2009, etc. With Price earnings ratios already high, there isn't a lot of room for further P/E expansion to provide some extra capital gains. Bottom line is I am only planning on getting around 2% capital growth, plus 2.5- 3% dividends over the long run in my portfolio planning. Hence, having a dividend growth portfolio approach as the cornerstone of our investing.
    That means we all need to save/ invest A LOT more than "traditional" retirement planners advise. Fortunately, we (my wife and I) are getting there, but I'm afraid many Americans are sadly unprepared for how much they need to save. Especially if the look at returns in the 1980's - 1990's as "normal" for long term investing.
    Nov 30, 2015. 09:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha contributor proposes $1M bet with Buffett [View news story]
    To be honest, I'd take Buffett on this bet.
    Nov 27, 2015. 11:57 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP Billiton: Near-Term Dividend Cut Unlikely [View article]
    I'm beginning to think that they WILL cut the dividend. I question the wisdom of funding a dividend with debt. Bottom line is they will have negative cash flow for at least 1-2 more years, why fund a dividend with debt? Not happy about cutting the dividend, but if I were the CEO I would be thinking along those lines.
    Nov 25, 2015. 02:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QCOM: Another 2015 Dividend Machine [View article]
    I agree with you. I am going to add a little more to our position, as it looks like a great long term dividend growth holding. You have over 10 years of steady dividend increases, and the main "negative headlines" are more related to regulators in China/ Korea "attacking" QCOM and delaying various payments (or seeting up barriers) to benefit their own companies. IMHO, this just show the "strength" of QCOM's moat. It has such a strong competitive moat that the regulators have to "intervene" to benefit their local companies (Samsung, others). Anytime regulators have to "intervene" due to a very strong competitive moat, that's a company I want to consider holding.
    Nov 22, 2015. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lilly and Merck extend collaboration in cancer with late-stage lung cancer study [View news story]
    Keytruda appears to be destined to be a "blockbuster" drug. Long MRK!
    Nov 19, 2015. 07:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend payouts rise among oil supermajors even as earnings crumble [View news story]
    If the oil/ gas price collapse goes on for several more years, I imagine the oil majors will eventually have to cut their dividends. They'll first cut cap. ex., which they have already done. They'll also cut share repurchases, as well as other expenses, and sell less profitable assets. I would imagine RDS.A/ RDS.B, BP, and eventually CVX will be forced to before XOM, but they ALL will have to do it eventually if prices remain real low for a long time. They'll do everything to avoid it, even take on some debt, but if it really starts to "hurt" financially (credit downgrades, prolonged negative cash flow, etc), they'll do it.

    Me, I'm hanging on because long term the cycle will turn up again, like it (always) has in the past! I would add more if I didn't already have large positions in XOM and a modest position in RDS.A.
    Nov 16, 2015. 08:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Minimum wage debate hits Wal-Mart again [View news story]
    I agree 100% with Scott Pettigrew above, these "workers" should stop their "professional protesting" and demonstrate their value to WMT management. I think WMT is making moves in the right direction with the pay raises, if you don't like your job, then get a better one. Probably for this group, they CAN'T!
    Nov 13, 2015. 08:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activist ValueAct sells 18.7M Microsoft shares [View news story]
    They still own a decent sized chunk of MSFT. Probably just taking some profits "off the table" so to speak. 56.6 million shares is a very large position. Don't know their overall portfolio size, but if it's appreciated 92% maybe it had grown too large.
    Nov 12, 2015. 07:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue Light Special: National Health Investors [View article]
    I apologize for my ignorance, but what is a "RIDEA"? I looked for an explanation, but couldn't find it (or missed it). Thanks!
    Nov 10, 2015. 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Good Employment Report, But With Risks [View article]
    Good article/ discussion, Cullen! Reading "between the lines", the last several Fed. Reserve statements have basically said "when" they do (finally) get around to raising interest rates, they are going to do it in a VERY slow and measured fashion, and each increase will be thoroughly discussed in view of the current economic data, etc. My suspicion is they will raise them once, just to send a message that the "cheap money" policy of the "great recession" is over, but then they'll wait 6-12, maybe 18 months before any further increases, unless the economy REALLY starts to take off (which I doubt). That may trigger a bit of a sell off in equities, as well as a spike in the dollar, but it will gradually settle down and allow the other econimies (Eurozone, Asia, Emerging Markets, etc.) to gradually "catch up" to our somewhat better economic growth- feeble that it has been.
    Nov 7, 2015. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Wells Fargo's Low PE Ratio Sending A False Buy Signal? [View article]
    Great article! I concur with everything you are saying, one has to look at the overall business model and how they "make money", is it cyclical in nature and therefore likely to result in an abnormally high (or low) P/E. This example applies to many other sectors- transportation, natural resource/ mining companies, etc.

    I will add you as a "follow" for my DG portfolio! Thanks!
    Oct 24, 2015. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It Was The Great Recession Charlie Brown [View article]
    Another great article! I also concur with you that REIT's are a great option for both steady/ rising income AND capital appreciation. Much of the return from REIT's is in the rising income, and therefore if you focus on "just" capital appreciation you will be disappointed. I personally limit my REIT exposure to 4% of my total portfolio, with the rest allocated in a broadly diversified mix of large (35%), mid (9%), and small (5%) caps stocks, as well as International equities (17%)/ emerging markets (3%).

    Question for you, What percentage of your total portfolio is allocated to REITS? Thanks!
    Oct 22, 2015. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Way To Reinvest Your Dividends For Retirement [View article]
    Great article, again! I actually use a "hybrid" approach to the above options. I started out (in the early 1970's) primarily collecting dividends, and when I accumulated "enough" I would reinvest into a new stock position. However, when it became possible to DRIP into stocks years ago (at NO brokerage cost!), I would occasionally reinvest dividends selectively into DG stocks that appeared undervalued at the time. When the stock would appreciate and become relatively fully valued (or over valued), I would turn OFF the DRIP selectively and just collect the dividends. As long as the stock was undervalued, I would continue to reinvest.

    Recently, I have slowly changed over to a hybrid approach, where I primarily collect the dividends and then selectively buy into a new position when I have accumulated "enough". However, I will DRIP into stocks that are SIGNIFICANTLY undervalued. I generally define this as a 5 star rating on Morningstar AND I want to add to the position, AND IF the position is less than 4% of my total portfolio. Once the postion rises in value to "fully valued", as defined as a 3 Star (on Morningstar), I will then turn off DRIP and collect dividends in cash. Once it gets to be above 4% of the portfolio, I also turn OFF any DRIP to avoid over concentration into one position, such as with XOM currently. I am currently doing this with AMGN, WMT, HCP, and WY, which are all great DG stocks I have held for many years. The main "downside" to my approach is that it does require regular "monitoring" of one's portfolio, and you need to be careful and not over react and be constantly turning on/ off the DRIP. The majority of my dividends are still collected in cash, but when one of my anticipated "long term" holdings is significantly undervalued, I use the temporary drop to add to that position.
    Oct 17, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silly Rabbit, REIT Dividends Are Highly Rated [View article]
    Another GREAT article, Brad! The last couple of charts showing the differnces in total return for 10 and 15 years, essentially "clinch" the argument in your favor, that dividends (and reliable dividend growth) definitely matter in the REIT world. The other author is simply wrong!
    Oct 14, 2015. 07:28 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment