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GBarr

GBarr
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  • Johnson Controls Inc: Fundamental Stock Research Analysis [View article]
    I'll address my comments to anyone who may not have had the time or interest to understand why some company's like JCI (and their stocks) are called 'cyclical', how that 'omission' plays out in the real world and makes the above completely factual evaluation less helpful than it appears.

    Very simply, cyclical companies get their name from the fact that they have so many years of strong profits then a few where they lose money followed by good years, than bad etc. The importance of this to the investor can be seen most easily by looking at JCI's price graph for the last 10 years. Again to keep it simple in 1998 you could buy the stock for about $9.50 it climbs reasonably straight to a high of about $44.50 in 2007 and then goes into 'freefall' for two years bottoming out in 2009 at $8.35. In some fashion this is what cyclical stocks do, their price, sales, earnings, percent return, whatever parameter you want to follow goes through these dramatic ups and downs the timing of which are unpredictable.
    So if you believe the above graph that shows what 'would' happen if JCI had 6 years of returns from 2013 to 2018 labeled as 21%, 20%, 15%, 15%, 15%, 15% and ends up at exactly $81.96, go ahead.

    I just thought the authors should have used their access to statistical data to point out how often a cyclical company like JCI can be expected to go 6 consecutive years without a huge price drop. Or is there a secret code in the financial world where a warning to 'do your own due diligence' is like 'buyer beware' when buying a car or house? Sincerely,
    G Barr
    Jan 8 04:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobakken Still Considerably Undervalued [View article]
    Anyone familiar with the term called 'flight of ideas' ?
    Feb 25 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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