I agree that PV 10 is no logner a valid tool for analysis ... PV5 or PV7 do make more sense, 500 basis point above the 10yr treasury.]]>

I agree that PV 10 is no logner a valid tool for analysis ... PV5 or PV7 do make more sense, 500 basis point above the 10yr treasury.]]>

http://seekingalpha.co...]]>

http://seekingalpha.co...]]>

PV=-25 (current share price)

PMT=3 (distribution)

FV=0

Periods=13

Compute Rate

Rate=7.05%

Assuming -- constant $3 annual distribution, $25 share price, $0 value at the end of 13 years. (rate would be slightly higher if you compute with quarterly distributions instead of annual... but you get the idea)]]>

PV=-25 (current share price)

PMT=3 (distribution)

FV=0

Periods=13

Compute Rate

Rate=7.05%

Assuming -- constant $3 annual distribution, $25 share price, $0 value at the end of 13 years. (rate would be slightly higher if you compute with quarterly distributions instead of annual... but you get the idea)]]>

1 / 25 / 5%

2 / 22.92 / 5.54%

3 / 20.84 / 5.99%

4 / 18.76 / 6.66%

5 / 16.68 / 7.5%

6 / 14.60 / 8.6%

7 / 12.52 / 9.98%

8 / 10.44 / 11.97%

9 / 8.36 / 14.95%

10 / 6.28 / 19.9%

11 / 4.20 / 29.7%

12 / 2.12 / 58.9%

Those are the returns on your adjusted basis.

That is an oversimplification of the returns... depletion is not constant, production will not be constant. Most importantly... the unit price is determined by supply and demand (market), so the actual price depreciation is uncontrollable. But your comment about a 3.7% return is incorrect.]]>

1 / 25 / 5%

2 / 22.92 / 5.54%

3 / 20.84 / 5.99%

4 / 18.76 / 6.66%

5 / 16.68 / 7.5%

6 / 14.60 / 8.6%

7 / 12.52 / 9.98%

8 / 10.44 / 11.97%

9 / 8.36 / 14.95%

10 / 6.28 / 19.9%

11 / 4.20 / 29.7%

12 / 2.12 / 58.9%

Those are the returns on your adjusted basis.

That is an oversimplification of the returns... depletion is not constant, production will not be constant. Most importantly... the unit price is determined by supply and demand (market), so the actual price depreciation is uncontrollable. But your comment about a 3.7% return is incorrect.]]>

Adjusting the numbers listed in the 10k for this years results:

The trust currently has ~7.2M barrels of proved reserves and an expected production and development costs of ~$220M, the future cash flows have the following values given the price of oil

oil price -- cash flow -- per share CF -- % return

$70 -- $284M -- $24.69 -- 0%

$80 -- $356M -- $30.95 -- 24%

$90 -- $428M -- $37.21 -- 49%

$100 -- $500M -- $43.48 -- 75%

$110 -- $572 -- $49.73 -- 100%

So as an investor, you need to decide the return you demand and your estimate price for oil over the next decade -- the rest of the math is pretty simple.]]>

Adjusting the numbers listed in the 10k for this years results:

The trust currently has ~7.2M barrels of proved reserves and an expected production and development costs of ~$220M, the future cash flows have the following values given the price of oil

oil price -- cash flow -- per share CF -- % return

$70 -- $284M -- $24.69 -- 0%

$80 -- $356M -- $30.95 -- 24%

$90 -- $428M -- $37.21 -- 49%

$100 -- $500M -- $43.48 -- 75%

$110 -- $572 -- $49.73 -- 100%

So as an investor, you need to decide the return you demand and your estimate price for oil over the next decade -- the rest of the math is pretty simple.]]>

This will increase 1Q2013 and all future quarters revenue by $45.5M and EBITDA by 27.7M. EBITDA per share will increase by $.059 per quarter from my calculations.

Thank you for bringing it to our attention!]]>

This will increase 1Q2013 and all future quarters revenue by $45.5M and EBITDA by 27.7M. EBITDA per share will increase by $.059 per quarter from my calculations.

Thank you for bringing it to our attention!]]>

They retain a 24.3% stake is SDLP, 13% of SapuraKencana (post sale) ~66% of Asia Offshore, 28.5% of Sevan Drilling, 49% of Varia Perdana. Note in Q3 they did not add significantly earnings, in fact they were a net loss of ~$40M. (mostly due to a 1 time charge from Archer). My goal was to estimate revenue and EBITDA for the core company.

My opinion (based on what I read in the quarterly reports) is that utilization rates will improve in the fourth quarter. Also note the Tender Rig sale will not occur in this quarter, so 4Q2012 Revenue and EBITDA will be higher than my estimations (by $100M).

You can use my calculations as a base, then add in the projected cash flows you mentioned. The above tables are a conservative estimation of future cash flows. And once those rigs come online and revenue/EBITDA increase, I expect a higher share price.]]>

They retain a 24.3% stake is SDLP, 13% of SapuraKencana (post sale) ~66% of Asia Offshore, 28.5% of Sevan Drilling, 49% of Varia Perdana. Note in Q3 they did not add significantly earnings, in fact they were a net loss of ~$40M. (mostly due to a 1 time charge from Archer). My goal was to estimate revenue and EBITDA for the core company.

My opinion (based on what I read in the quarterly reports) is that utilization rates will improve in the fourth quarter. Also note the Tender Rig sale will not occur in this quarter, so 4Q2012 Revenue and EBITDA will be higher than my estimations (by $100M).

You can use my calculations as a base, then add in the projected cash flows you mentioned. The above tables are a conservative estimation of future cash flows. And once those rigs come online and revenue/EBITDA increase, I expect a higher share price.]]>

I would reference my article:

http://seekingalpha.co...

In order to understand the impact of the Tender Rig sale to SapuraKencana and the increase to revenue and EBITDA as its rigs under construction come online.

You cannot evaluate this company based on past distributions.]]>

I would reference my article:

http://seekingalpha.co...

In order to understand the impact of the Tender Rig sale to SapuraKencana and the increase to revenue and EBITDA as its rigs under construction come online.

You cannot evaluate this company based on past distributions.]]>