jt

Outlook for Oil: 2008 Thus Far and a Preview of Coming Attractions

Have to agree with you mixter...when one reads investment message boards and sees who the retail investors are, one realizes that the majority are a bunch of lemmings who do neither DD nor have any kind of a plan other than to "get rich"..."to da moon!!"

Another part of the problem is American's unsinkable ignorant belief that we are participating in open and "free" markets. The fact is that they are now being manipulated..."managed... for those who object to words they find politically incorrect...beyond all belief of the common investor as well as most of the investment "analysts" (there's another topic).

Those who think they are being scientific by following TA are just as easily abused. They fail to give sufficient weight to the fact that TA is ALWAYS backward looking, ie, whatever happens is what is determining what is supposed to happen. BUT...in a manipulated market, those with the power and money to manipulate prices also have the power to manipulate the TA. They now where the support lines and trend lines and wave lines are...and they they have the power to push prices above or (infinitely more commonly now with commodities) below those lines and watch the dominoes fall as the "smart" money sells as instructed by the TA.

Just look at the gold and silver markets. Those who have made an absolutely ungodly fortune from selling fiat currency to our Treasury and to the world (currency that cost them absolutely nothing and now doesn't even require paper!!...just electrons) have been manipulating those paper and even physical markets for years, even decades. One of their major coups was to "train" the market that the "shares confirm the metal"...so that if metals were up one day, but shares dropped, that meant that the metals were going to fall the next day. Sure enough, it became a consistent enough pattern that they could get enough coattail following from other "commercials" and specs, that it would happen. So then they would simply go into the equity market, as they have been doing for many months now, and short the crap out of them.

Anyway...it would appear that the Gold Cartel is now facing the Commercial Signal Failure where those who followed their manipulations and previously profited from them are so far underwater shortwise, that they can no longer bear the pain and are covering. THAT is when you start to see the TRUE fundamentals FINALLY starting to come to public notice.

Same with oil and NG.