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  • Zalicus: An Upcoming Catalyst With Huge Potential [View article]
    Great article, only everything sounds so positive. There is no room for disappointment in which case the stock could be back to pre reverse split levels. I guess that is not a risk at all right?
    Oct 24, 2013. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • pSivida: Thoughts In The Aftermath Of The Complete Response Letter On Iluvien [View article]
    $1 is the aftermath of FDA rejection, until the next run up to $3 on 1/27 this is now at the mercy of FDA.
    Oct 21, 2013. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewed Buying Interest In Halozyme After Phase II Initiation [View article]
    Great article. I think HALO has tremendous potential but it is already baked into the stock at these prices. Retail investors are looking at the $5 or $6 price per share while ignoring ~700M+ market cap which is huge given there is going to be no significant revenue from partners. HyQ will be launched later this year in EU assuming they get approval (which I think they will), FDA has asked for pre-clinical trial data, they are in the process of conducting those trials. Interim results from those are expected in the 2H and the trials should complete by EOY. Investors should pay attention to two things, cash burn rate and potential revenue from royalties. Royalties are in low to mid single digits except for one partnership which is at 10%, these deals signify the importance of the platform to the big pharmaceuticals for whom the SC is just another offering they will make. Given the efficacy is similar there is no distinct advantage over IV formulations. Some retail investors are looking at Rituxan sales of $6B and assuming HALO will get 5% revenue and they need to think again. Best case if all partner drugs are approved in 3 years, the revenue from royalties will NOT exceed 300M. For a Co. with a market cap of ~700 - that is just too high given the assumption is ALL partner drugs get approved and peak sales for the SC are met. Very rosy picture but the realities are if something is going to go wrong it will so I do expect some delays and poor uptake of SC for some indications. Some analysts have a price target of $4 for a reason - where the stock can trade because of some very bullish retail investors and because risk taking is a fashion now is anybody's guess. Prudent investors should stay away from HALO until it is offered at an attractive price to me that would be around $4, and the upside outside of the royalties from indications HALO is attempting will be the gravy at that point. Investors should note this is a one trick pony and we know what can happen to one trick ponies like Affymax, crash and burn. Given FDA has asked for preclincial data is another caution which should not be ignored, it could be nothing but most of us will know know until this blows up in our face. Stock keeps moving higher but the short interest is keeping pace, given the short interest is now at around 8M the float effectively has increased which imples the stock is trading at or around 800M in market cap. Longs should enjoy the ride for now.
    Apr 25, 2013. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fusilev Unravels Spectrum's Revenue Growth, Bears Descend On Company [View article]
    Aren't you a little late to the party?
    Apaziquone will be up for review later this year, middle of this year will be Belinostat - expect them to make big news at ASCO, Topotarget wants is bubbling to announce the results but are waiting to make a bigger impact at ASCO so they can put themselves up for auction. Early next year will be the results for the drug licensed today. Late next year we should see some interim results for Apaziquone multiple instillation trial.
    Do not forget the multiple PIIs in trial which will all announce news sometime between now and year end.
    Bottomline, market is forward looking. Fusilev sales drop is priced in and no one is anticipating any value for Fusilev. Spectrum wants to capitalize on Fusilev so expect Folotyn+Fusilev trials and approval for Fusilev for PCTL market - Lecovorin is not being tested for the inidcation - which will give them the market regardless of the size.
    Given where the stock is trading and if you are forward looking promising data from any of the trials will reduce the wait time for the longs.
    I was bullish on Spectrum, but was waiting for the shoe to drop. Now it has and it looks like it is cheaper and better entry point for anyone interested in taking long positions. Can it go down another 40%? Maybe. It will get even more attractive as a result will bounce back to the $8 range and slowly start to trend up on positive news.
    Management is blind and Ken Keller and his team are blind and leading the Mgmt. I cannot see it any other way because they completely made fools of themselves with the sales forecast 20 days ago.
    If anything the Management and KK and his team have to show the investors if they are worth the big compensation packets they are taking home - it is time for them to stop talking and prove they really are worth the Millions they raked in last year and continue to do. Compensation committee is a joke and the Chairman and CEO positions should be split up to ensure the Comp. committee has some backbone and teeth.
    Is the management playing games and hoping to pull a DELL on the investors? I do not know but this does stink like an LBO in the making. Give out bad news, make it sound worst than it is, use the short interest on the stock to drive the price even lower and buy the Co. on the cheap. Reminds me of Seagate Technologies being bought out by Silver Lake in the late 90s for pennies on the dollar.
    Regardless of a possible LBO or a take over by someone it does look like an attractive entry point and the stock will be about 40% higher in less than a year. Now give me a list of all Cos you know with a confidence of 0.5 or higher which are likely to go 40% higher in a year would likely be cheap even at that price. Investing is an art, waiting eventually pays off, but you have to wait for the right time to make your move. Every short and their nannies are out on the message boards and on SeekingAlpha and other websites and alerting the Sky is falling - It already did and hit you on the head if you did'nt already know it, stop asking what if questions.
    Mar 14, 2013. 06:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Speculation On The Cause Of The OMONTYS Recall [View article]
    I believe the drug will be allowed to be marketed eventually but the downside is likely to be 50% or higher from here in the meantime. I will be a buyer of a lottery ticket at around $1.25/share. Until then longs should wait and watch the paint dry.

    Someone knew of the issues almost 5 days before the Co. announced it and is evident from the drop off to $11.50 before bouncing back to $16.40 - whoever traded and possibly shorted in the following 4 days should go to jail.
    Feb 28, 2013. 03:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Going On With Vivus? [View article]
    Short sellers are in complete control of Vivus and other biotech stocks. No company can project sales for any new molecule and report astounding numbers on launch including large cap Pharmas unless the drug is meeting an unmet condition and is 100% reimbursed. Launches are traditionally slow, the St. knows this, underwriters of other competitors are trying to promote their own offerings by downplaying both Vivus and Arena. Arena longs are spreading similar rumors about Vivus and Vivus longs are busy doing the same to Arena investors, both (yahoo) message boards are defensive and offensive.
    IMO there is going to be sufficient demand for all three drugs but Wall St. banks and underwriters are playing their games. Should VVUS or ARNA give them business for underwriting, they will play a different tune. Should VVUS offer itself for sale and and ask one of these bearsish firms to do the deal for them, they will play a different tune.

    Scumbag Wall St. firms have not learned anything from the 2009 debacle. Jim Cramer and the gang are also playing games by projecting very high targets and then shooting these Cos down these companies on lack of or perceived softness in earnings and missing targets. They seemingly write bullish stories with high projections of Rx data and shoot them down later. WK data in the hands of someone like AF is akin to giving a razor to a money.

    Is SEC ever going to look into this blatant stock manipulation of biotech companies? Whatever happened to separating underwriter business from recommendations by sell side analysts. Current and past administrations have overlooked this for too long and it is reaching a point when stock market participation by retail investors is likely to come to an end. Case of once bitten twice shy - I guess the Wall St. firms can play with each other them, make the sand box smaller and they can do to each other what they do to the retail investors.
    Nov 1, 2012. 10:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Spectrum Pharmaceuticals - A Closer Look [View article]
    You sound confused. Are you a short, a long, a trader looking to make a quick buck?
    What you are missing is a few things that are a game changer.
    1. A new Marketing team should bring a fresh prospective to the sales teams and strategy for Zevalin and Folotyn.
    2. Fusilev market may shrink IF the competition does start to produce Leucovorin in capacity.
    3. Teva is not even updating its comments and projections on FDA's website in terms of when they will start to produce. It is still stuck at "late Sept.", ASHP site indicates "late Sept. to mid Oct". Which is it or is it neither?
    4. You forget to mention the synergy in Folotyn and Fusilev and a possible new market for Fusilev
    5. Belinostat is not mentioned at all. Amongst the competitor drugs there is Belinostat which is likely to get an approval for PCTL. SPPI seems to want to delay it until they can turn around Folotyn.
    6. Strategy for PCTL seems to be to grab more retail shelf space. Something like the cereal market..
    7. Short interest and the short supply of shares available to short. Possibly, a lot of brokerage houses are naked at the moment.
    8. Timing of the negative article seems to be perfect, we are a few days from the options expiry.
    9. Heavy short/long open interest in Nov 17 and 20 Calls suggest there were sufficient shorts who sold the in or at the money calls and on the flip side there were those who bought them.
    10. Apaziquone is a toss up, but the St. has just about written it off. If FDA comes back favorably for Apaziquone it could be worth the $750M market cap justification by itself.
    11. SPPI management has refuted several times they have not discounted Fusilev, they infact increased the ASP. You are not dumb enough like AF to believe the data you see do you? I have experience with both NDC and IMS health and know there are times when the data is bad - double counting, not counting and entire market, some territories or providers missing are common data issues. Problem is AF took the data without questioning the validity of the data (which is the first thing you should do when you see an outlier) and ran his story, instead of correcting it later he accused the management of giving deep discounts and dumb people like you believe the myth. Which brings me to the last point.
    12. Shorts will and can use rumors to put pressure on the stock, the longs can take the courage and stick with it until they see something really negative stick. Longs and the Co. insiders have the truth in their favor which is the nightmare of every short because you can tend to start believing the rumors you spread after a while but if they were just lies and a smoke screen, the truth will eventually hurt you because the good news and the catalysts will help clear the air and when that happens - WATCH OUT.
    Oct 16, 2012. 05:40 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Significant Upside Potential [View article]
    Arena will not go anywhere for a few years - until Eisai eventually buys them. Vivus is likely to be acquired earlier - possibly before the product launch. Smart money is loading up on Vivus and keeping the stock deflated by the scare tactics.
    Aug 20, 2012. 09:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Stendra Keep Vivus Moving Ahead? [View article]
    Arena is not going to be bought out anytime now, at best it will be another 3-4 years depending on how Belviq sales does. It is a classic case of wait and watch and buy. Look at any major M&A the partner does get bought out but only when the sales reach the peak sales even if the buy out costs more. If Belviq does 500M+ sales for three years in a row, expect Eisai to buy them out.
    Aug 16, 2012. 01:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Stendra Keep Vivus Moving Ahead? [View article]
    You are assuming too much. For one ED market is wide open, it is not a market where there are any reimbursements as a result there is no formulary. ED market is called a "pleasure drug market" as a result there will never be any reimbursements, at most the insurance will give you 8 tabs a month if at all they pay for it.
    Given it is a pleasure drug market in all likelihood a certain segment of the market will try out a new drug at least once or twice before deciding if it works better for them. Repeat usage will depend on the experience. ED drugs are not actively detailed by Reps, the main mode of marketing is direct advertisement via TV adds, comedy show plugs, media ads like print and radio.

    About Qsymia - you are completely off target. Qsymia will be actively marketed by a sales force detailing the drug to PCPs and specialists. Mail order pharmacy is a medium of delivering the drug and it is often the least expensive way to acquire drugs. Co. is planning on giving PCPs and Specialists discount cards as opposed to samples, because sampling controlled substances are difficult and the FDA requirements are very high. Basically it allows two things, one they have access to the patient information like the mailing address so additional lit and info can be directly provided to patients, and no, it is not a HIPAA violation to contact a patient receiving mail order drugs, two the Co. will know of all the PCPs and specialists writing the Rx. Given the marketing data they can acquire from a vendor like IMS or NDC, they can marry the data they get from the boutiques like Walgreens, Walmart and other Mail Order Pharmacies and build an accurate list of PCPs and Specialists to target. Quintiles or tiers for the Prescribers is easier and more accurate given the clarity of the data.

    Finally, Vivus has indicated repeatedly they do not plan on marketing Stendra, they want to license it.

    So, before you jump to any conclusions, read up, listen and learn. Vivus has one drug which will be licensed, the revenue stream from Strenda will be limited but it will be something like 40M/year unless the sales are really robust and they can do more than $500M/year, I expect them to make about 8-10% royalties which will be tiered based on Sales targets over several years. Qsymia is likely to be sold independently, but it might mean they sell the entire Co if there is to be any partnership.

    For Arena, the only logical acquirer is Eisai and no one else. Also, the earnings are capped at 35% of ASP. Which is nicer than a 50/50 split where cost are also split. 30-35% of ASP implies the cost of drug sold is borne by Arena which could be about 10-15% which effectively results in about 15-25% on a royalty basis.
    Aug 16, 2012. 01:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI -3%) reverses early morning gains to trade lower on what appears to be profit taking, despite posting solid Q1 results. Total revenue jumped 36% Y/Y on srong performance by its chemotherapy drug Fusilev, plus better cost controls and aggressive management of operating expenses.  [View news story]
    Soon someone is going to post I told you to buy Puts were you paying attn?
    Apr 26, 2012. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectrum Could Sink In Wake Of Trial Failures [View article]
    How is your HGSI short working for you Erica? I wish more people would read your articles and follow your stupid advice.
    Apr 23, 2012. 02:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectrum Could Sink On Aqaziquone Failure [View article]
    Great article only facts are fiction. It must be true because you wrote in on the internet right? So let us get the facts right. Apaziquone Phase III trials have failed, but what you do not mention is these were single instillation trials, Spectrum is still studying the drug in multiple instillation trial. Benlysta was a failed drug also, until they redid the entire trial and got success as they tested the drug on a subset of the patients. Trial was set up to beat the odds and show improved efficacy. In the case of Apaziquone the data shows it seems to work, only no one really knows if that is indeed true because the Co. has not disclosed the data YET.
    About patients options for the drugs to go cheaper or more expensive, is a double edged sword. You mention Fusilev not likely to do good assuming the cheaper generic alternatives are available, if you were to use the same metrics no patient should pass up the opportunity to use Zevalin if they have indolent NHL but the drug is not doing well thanks to the Prescribers. So the issue clearly seems to be - Is it the patient's or the Prescriber's choice or both.
    Addition of Folotyn to the product mix clearly has advantages, Sales reps will be able to detail both Zevalin and Folotyn which has great synergies which will result in cost reduction. Folotyn can have serious side effects of mucositis in a subset of patients and to overcome the toxicities of the drug Fusilev is effective - which will help prompt Fusilev and help it retain its market share.

    You do not bother to mention Belinostat and other promising drugs in the pipeline. What you sound like is a broken record trying to scare and steer long retail investors away from this stock with poor facts and flawed logic. Whatever your agenda, it is definitely a poorly researched article on the prospects of this Co.
    Enjoy your short position in the stock for now, my impression is we will not hear from you about Spectrum in a few months if not weeks or days.
    Apr 18, 2012. 02:46 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectrum Will Sink Until 2013 [View article]
    No facts or basis for most of the arguments related to Apaziquone, Fusilev or Zevalin. You fail to mention Zevalin is approved w/o bioscan, it is soon going standard of care and has better efficacy compared to Rituxan. Also, Rituxan is going to be off patent in 2013 in EU and and 2015 in US. Spectrum has acquired W/W rights to Zevalin on the cheap.
    Fusilev sales are not expected to slow down at anytime in the future but we will see.
    Forgot to mention Folotyn being acquired by Spectrum, Folotyn is a 50M drug and is expected to boost Fusilev sales for AEs related to Folotyn. Given that the Sales force already calls on the same Oncos for Zevalin the cost synergies for marketing Folotyn will add to the bottom line.
    Forgot to mention Belinostat.
    Sounds like you are a just trying to push the stock lower w/o any facts, if it is on the internet then it must be true right? Sorry you are so wrong.
    Apr 13, 2012. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Appeal Of Human Genome Sciences While It's Still Under $10 [View article]
    Albiglutide trials successful? Or successfully concluded but failed to meet end points? If the premise of your entire story is to show successful drugs in the pipeline you have already failed, if you were to make a case that Benlysta is a viable blockbuster it is a different issue.
    Spectrum is facing a similar uphill battle in their case turning a dead drug into something big, the chances of success are high because even if they can make the Zevalin Revenue reach 100M or around it is a 10x and it can be deemed successful, will it ever be a Rituxan - never IMO. I think Zevalin sales will eventually reach 300M world wide with about 100-150M in US. Shorts in Spectrum are betting big but they will eventually give up a losing battle.
    Apr 4, 2012. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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