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biggbear77

biggbear77
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  • WDC +5.3%, STX +2.3%; Goldman upgrades Western to Buy [View news story]
    shope had sells on the hdd stocks all the way up! lol
    shope is a dope.
    May 28, 2015. 12:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dalio pulls the 1937 card [View news story]
    that's right, talking his long stock/bond book. no one wants to address the 800 lb gorilla in the room, especially billionaires. too much debt is the problem, not too high interest rates. dalio isn't worried about the economy, if he were, he would be promoting pro-growth economic policies. instead, he's worried about a bear market in financial assets hurting his portfolio. and by the way, what happened to that "beautiful deleveraging" concept ray?
    Mar 17, 2015. 06:17 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairchild Semiconductor: Ignored And Unloved Cash Flow/Buyback Story With 50%+ Upside [View article]
    whats the revenue growth rate and story here? I get the self-help margin expansion play. but that about the top line? how can they drive sales in a low nominal gdp environ arund the world. I am having lots of success w lowly valued, hi growers like qrvo, simo, and syna. 5% rev growth is a snoozer.
    Mar 4, 2015. 10:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Challenges Synaptics In Biometric Technology [View article]
    You are clueless dude. syna only got real revenues from biometric sensor last quarter tho the ramp that's built into 2nd half is high. company cant lose that biz even were qcom sensor far superior, which we do not know. also, syna has multiple other growth opportunities in TDDI and expanding RSPs client base w their best in class display drivers. so, even a lower growth rate in syna's fingerprint biz will not cause a large decline in co profits.
    Mar 4, 2015. 04:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TriQuint: $6 Smart Phone Supplier Garners Interest From Activist Fund [View article]
    that post was for brett jensen. but u are correct. it was a merger.
    May 30, 2014. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TriQuint: $6 Smart Phone Supplier Garners Interest From Activist Fund [View article]
    I was the guy who made a wager last year of tqnt vs avgo. I think both did very well but tqnt up 100% and avgo not as much. always expected the company to be acquired, but didn't think it would be rfmd.
    May 29, 2014. 10:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What An Apple iPhone Teardown Reveals [View article]
    not an auspicious debut for my tqnt forecasts. however, I still think they should deliver 15%+ revenue growth in 2014 along w decent progress towards their "greater than 20% operating margins". so I am sticking with the over on that 50cent anal consensus est for next year. and putting $$$ where my mouth is, including a $6 wager with bret! this management is like rosanna rosanna daana, there' s always something! I think they might need a new ceo.
    Oct 24, 2013. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What An Apple iPhone Teardown Reveals [View article]
    bret, i love it! avgao trades for 4x's 2014 revenues. i have tqnt at 1.1 next year's sales. lots of margin improvement on top of huge slaes growth in 2014. so i expect tqnt to trade closer to 4x's sales than 1x's sales by the end of next year. just closing the gap a bit tween tqnt and avgo.
    Oct 21, 2013. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TriQuint And The Paradox Of #2 [View article]
    has-
    I do this for a living. I receive research notes from about 40 firms. the comments were made in a note about tqnt this week.
    my $2 est for 2016 is really only the company's financial targets stated on the website of 20% sales growth for 3 years and a terminal opm of 20%. the company's goal is "greater than 20%." while tqnt has never realized such margins, many of their peers currently do 20%+ so the business model supports that. for a long time the company has been run for revenue growth and R&D/cool science. the ceo has finally figured out its not embarrassing to make a real profit.
    there's a lot of work ahead to get to reach those goals. and the outcome is by no means certain. but lordly, lordy, the upside in the stock is massive if they do.
    Oct 9, 2013. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What An Apple iPhone Teardown Reveals [View article]
    excellent. in addition to being my biggest position, I can win a free lunch! I am in print with a $24 price target in 18 months as I give management the benefit of the doubt. this assumes market and economy hold up. like the hdd and memory guys, an "opoly" in specialty filter biz produce strong profits in the transition from 3g to LTE.
    Oct 9, 2013. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What An Apple iPhone Teardown Reveals [View article]
    hey bret, craig-hallum analyst on tqnt just did an update and wrote they have close to $1 eps potential in 2014....
    double or nothing???
    Oct 7, 2013. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TriQuint And The Paradox Of #2 [View article]
    fellow investors, I am not certain that tqnt will execute on their growth and margin targets. I am just saying that the upside in the stock is considerable if they do. and that upside is large enough to warrant a long position.

    today, most companies have peak type profit margins and high p/e ratios. and many companies have minimal revenue growth these days as they avoid revenue growth expenses that would hurt profitability.

    tqnt has big revenue growth opportunity that comes from technological progress in the transition from 3g to 4g lte. and they have margin targets that many of their peers make. these peers trade for 3-5x's sales when operating on all cylinders. tqnt is around 1x's my 2014 sales estimate.

    mr wall street anal-yst, you tell me the odds of tqnt hitting their targets, assuming you visited the website and saw them in the first place.

    then tell me where the stock goes if they make my $2 eps target in 2016.
    Oct 6, 2013. 10:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TriQuint And The Paradox Of #2 [View article]
    Stephen, you went half way on the bull case. Tqnt's stated financial goals are a very ambitious period of 20% revenue growth and better than 20% operating profit margins. The transition from 2/3g to LTE requires significant incremental filter adoption, esp BAW filters. Since this technology is a duopoly between Avago and TriQuint, profit margins should mix upwards. As the company hopes to bundle BAW filters with other products like amplifiers and switches or into modules, it increases its market share in other areas. This enhances fab utilization. So with higher capacity utilization and positive mix, the company expects to generate a 50% incremental margin on accelerating revenue growth.

    Should the co delivery their 20% revenue growth and 20% opm starting in 2014 for 3 years, in 2016 it will have $1.64 billion in revs and around $300 million in net profit. That $2 eps number valued at a 20% growth p/e will probably get you a $30-40 stock.
    Granted the company has a spotty long term track record and management not considered best, but the upside remains so interesting that one must have some exposure for potential alone.
    Oct 5, 2013. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What An Apple iPhone Teardown Reveals [View article]
    Done
    Sep 21, 2013. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What An Apple iPhone Teardown Reveals [View article]
    we on for $2x2 or what??
    Sep 20, 2013. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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