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biggbear77

biggbear77
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  • What An Apple iPhone Teardown Reveals [View article]
    not an auspicious debut for my tqnt forecasts. however, I still think they should deliver 15%+ revenue growth in 2014 along w decent progress towards their "greater than 20% operating margins". so I am sticking with the over on that 50cent anal consensus est for next year. and putting $$$ where my mouth is, including a $6 wager with bret! this management is like rosanna rosanna daana, there' s always something! I think they might need a new ceo.
    Oct 24 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What An Apple iPhone Teardown Reveals [View article]
    bret, i love it! avgao trades for 4x's 2014 revenues. i have tqnt at 1.1 next year's sales. lots of margin improvement on top of huge slaes growth in 2014. so i expect tqnt to trade closer to 4x's sales than 1x's sales by the end of next year. just closing the gap a bit tween tqnt and avgo.
    Oct 21 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TriQuint And The Paradox Of #2 [View article]
    has-
    I do this for a living. I receive research notes from about 40 firms. the comments were made in a note about tqnt this week.
    my $2 est for 2016 is really only the company's financial targets stated on the website of 20% sales growth for 3 years and a terminal opm of 20%. the company's goal is "greater than 20%." while tqnt has never realized such margins, many of their peers currently do 20%+ so the business model supports that. for a long time the company has been run for revenue growth and R&D/cool science. the ceo has finally figured out its not embarrassing to make a real profit.
    there's a lot of work ahead to get to reach those goals. and the outcome is by no means certain. but lordly, lordy, the upside in the stock is massive if they do.
    Oct 9 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What An Apple iPhone Teardown Reveals [View article]
    excellent. in addition to being my biggest position, I can win a free lunch! I am in print with a $24 price target in 18 months as I give management the benefit of the doubt. this assumes market and economy hold up. like the hdd and memory guys, an "opoly" in specialty filter biz produce strong profits in the transition from 3g to LTE.
    Oct 9 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What An Apple iPhone Teardown Reveals [View article]
    hey bret, craig-hallum analyst on tqnt just did an update and wrote they have close to $1 eps potential in 2014....
    double or nothing???
    Oct 7 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TriQuint And The Paradox Of #2 [View article]
    fellow investors, I am not certain that tqnt will execute on their growth and margin targets. I am just saying that the upside in the stock is considerable if they do. and that upside is large enough to warrant a long position.

    today, most companies have peak type profit margins and high p/e ratios. and many companies have minimal revenue growth these days as they avoid revenue growth expenses that would hurt profitability.

    tqnt has big revenue growth opportunity that comes from technological progress in the transition from 3g to 4g lte. and they have margin targets that many of their peers make. these peers trade for 3-5x's sales when operating on all cylinders. tqnt is around 1x's my 2014 sales estimate.

    mr wall street anal-yst, you tell me the odds of tqnt hitting their targets, assuming you visited the website and saw them in the first place.

    then tell me where the stock goes if they make my $2 eps target in 2016.
    Oct 6 10:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TriQuint And The Paradox Of #2 [View article]
    Stephen, you went half way on the bull case. Tqnt's stated financial goals are a very ambitious period of 20% revenue growth and better than 20% operating profit margins. The transition from 2/3g to LTE requires significant incremental filter adoption, esp BAW filters. Since this technology is a duopoly between Avago and TriQuint, profit margins should mix upwards. As the company hopes to bundle BAW filters with other products like amplifiers and switches or into modules, it increases its market share in other areas. This enhances fab utilization. So with higher capacity utilization and positive mix, the company expects to generate a 50% incremental margin on accelerating revenue growth.

    Should the co delivery their 20% revenue growth and 20% opm starting in 2014 for 3 years, in 2016 it will have $1.64 billion in revs and around $300 million in net profit. That $2 eps number valued at a 20% growth p/e will probably get you a $30-40 stock.
    Granted the company has a spotty long term track record and management not considered best, but the upside remains so interesting that one must have some exposure for potential alone.
    Oct 5 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What An Apple iPhone Teardown Reveals [View article]
    Done
    Sep 21 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What An Apple iPhone Teardown Reveals [View article]
    we on for $2x2 or what??
    Sep 20 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What An Apple iPhone Teardown Reveals [View article]
    bret, I have tqnt closer to hitting their financial targets on company website. the biz has been under mananged for years. a large current activist shareholder has lit a fire under management to ramp the revs without much incremental expense. I have revs of $1.15B and $1.4B in 14 and 15 and eps of $.80 and $1.10. where do you think the stock would go in 12 months if those became consensus? its all in the baw.
    Sep 20 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What An Apple iPhone Teardown Reveals [View article]
    bret, I will take the other side of that trade. I am long tqnt and flat avgo and skws. lets make it a $2 wager for 6 months and another for 12 months. you can track me down to pay.
    tqnt has big revenue growth ahead from baw filters which they duopolize with avgo. most rf content growth in lte in incremental filter requirements. expect huge beat vs consensus if 2014 on both top and bottom lines. far superior growth to avgo and skws
    Sep 20 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maxwell falls after Chinese EV subsidy program detailed [View news story]
    this post is incorrect. the chinese government will have a separate policy for standard hybrid busses coming out by the end of the month according to maxwell and others. it is expected to open the program to more cities at lower subsidy levels than prior programs.
    Sep 19 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Digital (WDC +8.4%) and Seagate (STX +4.6%) are up strongly in the absence of major news hitting the wires. WDC announced yesterday morning it would accelerate a dividend payment, but shares hardly budged in response. Low valuations - the hard drive makers both trade near 5x estimated FY13 EPS, and have sizable cash balances - could be enticing bargain-hunters. (previous[View news story]
    baird, i think, put out an update. it said channel inventory was only 2 weeks. very bullish
    Dec 6 02:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Digital (WDC +8.4%) and Seagate (STX +4.6%) are up strongly in the absence of major news hitting the wires. WDC announced yesterday morning it would accelerate a dividend payment, but shares hardly budged in response. Low valuations - the hard drive makers both trade near 5x estimated FY13 EPS, and have sizable cash balances - could be enticing bargain-hunters. (previous[View news story]
    the was a baird column that said channel inventory was down to around 2 weeks. and it recommended purchase of wdc.
    Dec 6 02:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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