Seeking Alpha

RJCogburn

RJCogburn
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View RJCogburn's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Medical Fac Corp. - Cheap Stock That Pays 7% Dividend, Has Near Term Catalysts, With 69% Upside Potential [View article]
    I've owned this for several years, happily. But the future is not so sanguine as you paint it. The ambulatory surgical center in California is not a moneymaker and they had to get rid of a second ASC they had acquired about the same time. ACS's are not an area of excellence for this company.

    The case mix is slowly deteriorating and that may cause more squeeze in the future. Costs are up. You mention an increase in the number of EMERGENCY surgical and ortho cases but I think their cases are elective, not emergent.

    I like this company and will continue to hold but I'm not adding...not at current prices anyhow.
    Oct 27 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enerplus: An Attractive Investment For 2013 [View article]
    "I have to say I really don't recall things that way"

    Well, I'm not looking to argue or nitpick but if one listened to the presentations in the April, 2012, "analyst day" roadshow management was very comfortable with the idea of maintaining the dividend through 2012. I don't see a recording of the oral presentations on the ERF site but you can look at the slides and read between the lines.
    http://bit.ly/ZQ9qjq

    I think most folks thought there was a likelihood that the divi would be decreased in 2013, and I am not criticizing management for cutting but they are not to be trusted, imo.

    And don't forget there was an equity raise not that long prior to the analysts day roadshow and they even explain in the presentation slides a bit as to why equity raise was better than a divi reduction.

    ERF may do okay longer term, they seem to have a plan in place that may make sense. I just don't trust them.
    Jan 11 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enerplus: An Attractive Investment For 2013 [View article]
    "Enerplus has made it clear that, despite slow growth the company expects to maintain its dividend"

    Well, sure, but during the analyst roadshow they produced in the first part of 2012 they said the same thing and even gave a speciic plan as to how that would be done.....and then cut the dividend a few months later.

    You take a risk if you trust management on the dividend question as evidenced by what I just referenced.
    Jan 9 05:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SkyPeople: Strong Potential for Fruitful Returns [View article]
    Looks like the author took a slow boat to..... as there have been no articles since 2011 and the last instablog six months ago. Maybe went back to continue that on-the-ground research.....

    Meanwhile SPU just reported a pretty good quarter and has over $3/share cash on hand. Should be a winner if legit but that on-the-ground report would help determine if legit or not, doncha think....
    Nov 14 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enerplus: Primed For A Rebound [View article]
    Well, sure, ERF may be a decent investment for the longer term and I own a rather small amount. But I'll point out it was just a few months before the distribution cut that ERF held a big "analyst's day" presentation explaining how the distribution was likely to be maintained for the remainder of 2012. The path to this was clearly detailed.

    I had long held a favorable opinion of management. No longer.

    FWIW.
    Aug 11 08:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kewaunee Scientific Corp.: Recipe For A Low Float Rocket [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I've watched KEQU for a while, don't own. Can you comment, please, on this from an earlier SA piece...
    "Second, heavy pension obligations booked to Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income have offset over half of the accumulated retained earnings over the past decade resulting in anemic growth in book value. In other words, much of the reported net income over the past decade has been required to account for pension liabilities rather than to benefit shareholders."
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 9 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QR Energy - Not Your Typical MLP [View article]
    You say, "QR Energy has a unique focus on acquiring conventional, mature, domestic assets, targeting long-lasting, stable production rates, which will be accretive to cash distributions to unitholders."

    Why do you say it is "unique"? It seems more or less similar to the other upstream MLPs. How is it substantially different from, say, LINE or LGCY?
    May 14 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aceto Corporation: The Small-Cap Pharma Growth Story That's Got Insiders Buying [View article]
    Well, not so fast....

    ACET was for many years a specialty chemical company, sourcing from around the world uncommon chemicals that various industries needed in fairly small amounts. They grew steadily over the years and were for many years debt free.

    Over time the old management family retired or died off or whatever and new management took on debt, built themselves a fancy new headquarters, and entered into failed initiatives...a generic version of Roundup, animal vaccines.

    The company does have potential but management must still prove itself after several missteps. I am a long term holder of this stock, will continue to hold, but not adding at this point.
    Feb 23 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Optimer Pharma: 2 Potentially Potent Drugs In The Pipeline [View article]
    " it appears the company is being heavily speculated by longs for OPT-822."

    Don't think so. It's all about fida. They also had a quinalone which they withdrew not long ago and a ketolide which I believe has gone nowhere.

    It's fida or bust. I have a smallish long position.
    Feb 14 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Canadian REITs, Part VII: Retirement, Nursing Homes, Healthcare And Cemeteries [View article]
    Your information on Medical Facilities Corp is out of date. They disposed of one of the ambulatory care centers...Barranca...some time ago. The other ambulatory center in Newport Beach is still owned but has mediocre results. The entry into the ambulatory care center market was a mistake. The surgical hospitals and the spine hospital are doing well.

    This company is hardly a REIT, however. I am a long term holder and very happy with the company but there are headwinds. The payor mix is a problem as Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements pay much less than necessary to be profitable. The effects of Obamacare are unknown but likely to be troublesome, IMO.

    Still, I would add at the "right" price.
    Jan 20 06:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marine Harvest's Earnings Restatement Could Be Buying Opportunity; Use Caution [View article]
    Why not some of each?
    Jul 25 06:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Squeeze Ideas: 4 Highly Profitable, Oversold Stocks With Increasing Shorts [View article]
    So far as OPTR, the income is basically from selling rights to market their newly approved drug. It is their only commercial product and likely none to follow for sometime. I own it and expect them to do well with this new drug but it is worthwhile to know where the data you use originates.
    Jun 29 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Labeling and Script Use May Cause Problems For Optimer's New Drug [View article]
    " I believe this issue of reoccurence should not be an important issue. The most important issues should be efficacy and safety. "

    Of course it is an important issue. Not to mention efficacy means producing a desired result....and a desired result is cure without recurrance.
    Jun 1 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Labeling and Script Use May Cause Problems For Optimer's New Drug [View article]
    Reasonable article in general but when you say, "Of course, there is also the drawback of its recently signed partnership with Astellas (ALPMF.PK), where it entered into an exclusive collaboration and licensing agreement thus lowering its potential revenue and profits." your implication is that this is a general worldwide agreement when it is not. I know that and many OPTR holders do, but the casual reader will be misled.

    I'm long and happy....
    May 26 05:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Still Bullish on U.S. Listed China Food Stocks [View article]
    Well, sure, there are a number of Chinese food stocks that appear to be great bargains. But how does one decide which are legit?

    For example, OINK has good numbers, a good and growing business, and a P/E that is ridiculously low. But just a few days ago Geoinvesting reported that its touted "on the ground research" was impaired (my word, not theirs) when they were brought to the farms but not allowed to enter.

    So is OINK a great buy or a scam, or something in between?

    How can one tell with regard to a large number of such companies?

    Risky business....
    May 24 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
38 Comments
32 Likes