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RJCogburn

RJCogburn
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  • Enerplus: The Dividend Is On Borrowed Time [View article]
    "Author’s reply » RJCogburn,

    That sounds extremely odd. Are you sure they lowered the dividend soon after the presentation? Did their financial situation change materially?

    Dividend cuts, from my experience, are easy to project just by running the numbers. "
    ======================...
    I don't know that I should have to do the research for a SA author who should, I would presume, be aware of facts just a couple of years old, but...
    ++++++++++++++++++++++...

    Well, the presentation is, not surprisingly, removed from the ERF website but I did listen to it at the time. Spring 2012. I posted (elsewhere, IV) the following..."ERF had a recent analysts' day. Some info from that....management understands that many shareholders are in for the yield and understand the importance of such. Their plan for maintaining the divi includes asset sales, decreasing spending on natgas, expanding the DRIP to include US investors (which make up more than half the shareholders) and more."
    ======================...

    Then you can read the press release below....

    Enerplus Corporation ("Enerplus") today reiterated production growth targets for 2012. We continue to expect to deliver 10% organic production growth through a capital spending program designed to increase crude oil production significantly throughout the year and preserve the value of our core natural gas assets for the future.

    Approximately 70% of our forecasted $800 million capital spending in 2012 is weighted to crude oil and natural gas liquids projects. Approximately 40% of this capital is being directed to our light crude oil assets in the North Dakota region where production is expected to double by year end. We will continue to invest with our partners in the Marcellus shale gas play, which we believe is one of the best natural gas plays in North America. Our focus is to preserve our lease interests and retain the value of this significant asset for the future.

    We continue to pursue the monetization or joint venture of a portion of our strategic undeveloped land base. Over the past three years, we have amassed over 170,000 net acres of strategic land in the Montney and Duvernay as well as our operated acreage in the Marcellus that contains significant future drilling potential. Along with the sale of our equity portfolio, we expect that we could generate $250 - $500 million of proceeds over the next 12 - 18 months that will help fund our future growth strategies.

    Despite our operational success year-to-date, commodity prices have weakened and resulted in lower forecast cash flows. While our balance sheet is currently strong and we have significant liquidity with respect to our credit capacity, we are reducing our monthly dividend from CDN$0.18 per share to CDN$0.09 per share. We believe this reduction will strike a better balance between yield and growth, allowing continued investment into our asset base in a more sustainable manner. We remain committed to a strategy that provides investors with a dividend and growth investment.

    As stated, the new dividend amount of CDN$0.09 per share will be effective with the July payment and will not impact the dividend payable on June 20, 2012.

    http://yhoo.it/1CBUqsA
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enerplus: The Dividend Is On Borrowed Time [View article]
    It was only a couple of years ago, or so, that management had a road show for analysts etc. which included an assurance that the dividend would remain unchanged for the remainder of that calendar year. I believe the road show came not all that long after a secondary (but I might be wrong about that...)

    Road show ended....dividend reduced.
    Dec 23, 2014. 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: B&G Foods Keeps Growing, Remains Attractive For Income Investors [View article]
    I like BGS but your comments are rather sanguine. They took a huge write-off for the recent Rickland Orchards acquisition. BGS got really hosed on that one and they had made one of the principals of Rickland a VP. In retrospect clearly a very bad decision all around. Overall the entry into snack foods, excepting the Pirates brand, has been extremely disappointing thus far.

    It remains to be seen how the new CEO, Cantwell does. He is a numbers guy and will need to demonstrate he has the vision to grow the company. I think the dividend is pretty secure. I don't see a lot of reason for it to increase much if at all. They have lots of debt, though Wenners did say they would continue to return in the form of dividends 60% of "excess" cash flow.
    Oct 24, 2014. 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B&G Foods Yields 5% And Offers High Dividend Growth [View article]
    ""conglomeration of orphan, has been brands" sure caught my attention. Good point "

    Well, maybe a good point but I don't think so. The model for the company was to obtain brands that larger companies did not want to spend the time and money on, as for the larger companies the brand was small enough a part of their business it the attention needed did not make sense.

    And BGS has implemented that model very successfully, growing the business. Sure, there are some products like Accent or Underwood that don't and won't grow but there are Ortega and Cream of Wheat that they have grown very nicely.

    It remains to be seen if Wenners' replacement can do as good a job and how the company responds to the industry wide "center of the store" decline.
    Oct 6, 2014. 08:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • B&G Foods Inc.: Serving Up A Healthy Dividend Yield From A Very Competitive Sector [View article]
    It is worth pointing out that Wenners, who had led the company from the start and has done terrific job so far as I can tell is leaving at the end of the year. No replacement named as far as I know.

    They entered the snack food area as they recognized that what they term "center of the store" products is not growing, for them or others. They have had a bit of trouble integrating the snack foods and the warehouse expansion as you point out is a result of learning that they take up more space than the usual cans and jars they are used to.

    A good company but perhaps a bit more risk than you suggest.
    Oct 4, 2014. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B&G Foods Yields 5% And Offers High Dividend Growth [View article]
    You neglected to point out that the CEO, Wenners, who has done a wonderful job since the company began, is retiring at the end of 2014. That is a likely reason for at least part of the share price decline. No replacement has yet been named as far as I know.

    They have also had some problems with integrating their entry into snack foods into the larger company. Rickland Orchards brand has disappointed, and they found that snack foods take up a lot more space than the shelf stable foods they had experience with and they have needed to spend $$ to increase warehouse space.

    They entered the snack food business because they recognized that their regular products, what they call "middle of the store" items were not growing sales at all and in some cases declining. This is not specific to BGS, but an industry wide experience.
    Oct 2, 2014. 04:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B&G Foods: Why A Turnaround Looks Unlikely [View article]
    You overlooked a significant issue. BGS has had wonderful management....competent, transparent, skillful, smart. The CEO is leaving at year's end and his replacement is at yet unknown...at least not yet named.

    I have been quite comfortable with the idea that management will correct problems- the track record of so doing is excellent. But with the CEO's (Wenners) departure I am no longer so comfortable at this point.
    Aug 21, 2014. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Buying Opportunity In Pozen Shares [View article]
    What about this.....?

    "POZEN Announces U.S. Rights For TREXIMET® Have Been Acquired by Pernix Therapeutics"
    Aug 21, 2014. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medical Fac Corp. - Cheap Stock That Pays 7% Dividend, Has Near Term Catalysts, With 69% Upside Potential [View article]
    I've owned this for several years, happily. But the future is not so sanguine as you paint it. The ambulatory surgical center in California is not a moneymaker and they had to get rid of a second ASC they had acquired about the same time. ACS's are not an area of excellence for this company.

    The case mix is slowly deteriorating and that may cause more squeeze in the future. Costs are up. You mention an increase in the number of EMERGENCY surgical and ortho cases but I think their cases are elective, not emergent.

    I like this company and will continue to hold but I'm not adding...not at current prices anyhow.
    Oct 27, 2013. 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enerplus: An Attractive Investment For 2013 [View article]
    "I have to say I really don't recall things that way"

    Well, I'm not looking to argue or nitpick but if one listened to the presentations in the April, 2012, "analyst day" roadshow management was very comfortable with the idea of maintaining the dividend through 2012. I don't see a recording of the oral presentations on the ERF site but you can look at the slides and read between the lines.
    http://bit.ly/ZQ9qjq

    I think most folks thought there was a likelihood that the divi would be decreased in 2013, and I am not criticizing management for cutting but they are not to be trusted, imo.

    And don't forget there was an equity raise not that long prior to the analysts day roadshow and they even explain in the presentation slides a bit as to why equity raise was better than a divi reduction.

    ERF may do okay longer term, they seem to have a plan in place that may make sense. I just don't trust them.
    Jan 11, 2013. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enerplus: An Attractive Investment For 2013 [View article]
    "Enerplus has made it clear that, despite slow growth the company expects to maintain its dividend"

    Well, sure, but during the analyst roadshow they produced in the first part of 2012 they said the same thing and even gave a speciic plan as to how that would be done.....and then cut the dividend a few months later.

    You take a risk if you trust management on the dividend question as evidenced by what I just referenced.
    Jan 9, 2013. 05:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SkyPeople: Strong Potential for Fruitful Returns [View article]
    Looks like the author took a slow boat to..... as there have been no articles since 2011 and the last instablog six months ago. Maybe went back to continue that on-the-ground research.....

    Meanwhile SPU just reported a pretty good quarter and has over $3/share cash on hand. Should be a winner if legit but that on-the-ground report would help determine if legit or not, doncha think....
    Nov 14, 2012. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enerplus: Primed For A Rebound [View article]
    Well, sure, ERF may be a decent investment for the longer term and I own a rather small amount. But I'll point out it was just a few months before the distribution cut that ERF held a big "analyst's day" presentation explaining how the distribution was likely to be maintained for the remainder of 2012. The path to this was clearly detailed.

    I had long held a favorable opinion of management. No longer.

    FWIW.
    Aug 11, 2012. 08:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kewaunee Scientific Corp.: Recipe For A Low Float Rocket [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I've watched KEQU for a while, don't own. Can you comment, please, on this from an earlier SA piece...
    "Second, heavy pension obligations booked to Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income have offset over half of the accumulated retained earnings over the past decade resulting in anemic growth in book value. In other words, much of the reported net income over the past decade has been required to account for pension liabilities rather than to benefit shareholders."
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 9, 2012. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QR Energy - Not Your Typical MLP [View article]
    You say, "QR Energy has a unique focus on acquiring conventional, mature, domestic assets, targeting long-lasting, stable production rates, which will be accretive to cash distributions to unitholders."

    Why do you say it is "unique"? It seems more or less similar to the other upstream MLPs. How is it substantially different from, say, LINE or LGCY?
    May 14, 2012. 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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