Blair

Kiplinger's: Stocks and Recessions - Historical Data

One cannot argue against the above posted data.

However, one can ask whether things are sufficiently different today (a kin - black swan) that one should take the above with as a grain of salt.

The whole profound change in the availability of easy to get and low interest is the big issue. Just because the fed rates are low, it doesn't mean that one can borrow money without trouble.

The whole credit market doesn't make any sense. It is desired to get the housing market off of the floor. However, with the low interest rates that a retail customer can get, which doesn't even cover inflation let alone taxes, means that it will be very difficult to get new retail buyers into buying the homes -- unless the prices drop to unimaginable low prices.